Analysis Hawthorn rebuild: are they tanking?

[SSSSSS]

Ah yes saving Brisbane from their much talked about salary cap crunch.

There doesn't need to be a salary cap squeeze to offload a player of no value to you.

Obviously 500k in a contending teams cap is going to go a lot further than 500k in a side who can barely make the minimal payments.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Yeah. Everyone has their own parameter of what they mean with their gradings. I mean a star of the comp, as I think every team who has survived at the top for a while has a few.

So yes Hawks have some tracking to e your definition of A grader, if you're including Josh, IQ and Crisp. But that level above them is looking unlikely to me.

What we're seeing with the Cats and Pies and Richmond before them is the rise of the specialised flanker. The flanks and pockets are no longer filled with the next best mid, they're specialists with a specialist skillset to be damaging in those roles. It's why I think criticism of you guys taking Wiz so early is way off. An elite forward pocket, if he becomes one, is gold

I wouldn’t include Crisp, consistency hasn’t been there but in their roles which is important. Daicos, IQ and such are elite at what they do, defending and being able to dash in Quaynors case and Daicos is genuinely the best winger in the competition aside from Errol Gulden.

Agree with that take too, he’ll be a very good player and people suggesting it’s a bad pick are ill informed. Moore is that specialist half forward and is brilliant at it.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

He could do all of that without needing to be on the list.

Instead Sam made room for him, played him, dropped him when he had no other choice, bought him back against the worst team in the comp to help cover his deficiencies and then watched him be exposed against Sydney.

Bizarre move by a coach to blindly look after his mate.

Gunston is not an AFL player anymore largely due to his body, on sheer talent and muscle memory you might get 3 or 4 good games from him by the years end. But is that enough to cut younger forwards to create a space for him?


Not for me.

As you said in your other post. “He needs to be a coach - and worry about his team not his mates?” Quite an odd post if I might add, he brought Gunston back which was clearly for depth, and experience. He has also had the helpful ability to coach and take players under his wing. If we didn’t think he’d be good enough to play AFL when asked then he wouldn’t be on the list but that’s what you’re suggesting which is absurd.

 

[smish]

This is just finding excuses for what look like s**t picks. If you rated those players who's to say you wouldn't have taken them anyway? Or you wouldn't have developed Callaghan and McDonald?

Jye Amiss was taken the pick after Ward who looks a better prospect than McDonald anyway. Wanganeen-Milera was still on the board as another option.

If you didn't rate DGB you could've taken Perkins who you were interested in or live traded that pick for massive value.

Can we not turn this into a Hawthorn/Geelong shitfight please mate.

DGB was rated by some list managers as the #1 talent in the open pool. We took him as the best player available. No one could have anticipated he wouldn't have come on as hoped.

In 2021 we also took Ward as the best player available. Our midfield at that stage was also Mitchell, O'Meara, Worpel, Shiels, Scully, Tom Phillips, Howe. It was a no-brainer.
Amiss we were told was a flight risk. Gibcus we should have taken in hindsight. NWM was a reach and we were and still are stacked for HBFs.

So (1) We ourselves prevented us from getting the cream of the crop and (2) The best player available at our pick hasn't worked out as well as we would have hoped so far. Not sure what's hard to understand about that.

Eg trade pick 6 to GWS for their future first and pick 18. Take Holmes with pick 18 in 2020, Amiss with your 2021 first and Darcy Wilmot with GWS' future 1st and you wouldn't care about missing out on McDonald or Callaghan.

No thanks. I'd still rather McDonald/Callaghan.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

This is a very taboo topic on the Hawks board in particular and I'll 100% get shot down for saying this here, but there have been some late season wins which have killed us.

We won the final game of the 2020 season where we jumped Sydney on the ladder and we missed out on L. McDonald, selecting DGB instead.

We won a couple late in 2021 we probably shouldn't have won based on exposed form and ended up costing us Callaghan, we got Ward instead.

The argument is that no win is meaningless and it's good for morale. Yes, it's good for morale, but reality is we're years later we're still 17th and no amount of morale can fixed that.
No, we shouldn't have tanked. Yes, tanking can destroy a club and we absolutely shouldn't have done that. I'm just pointing out how missing out on the point end of talent has put us in a compromised position.

Not saying they're bad players, jury's out on DGB and Ward has been sent to the twos to work on some stuff. Still, there's not one reasonable person that would say DGB/Ward is a better combo than McDonald/Callaghan.

Having said all this, this argument would be totally redundant if not for how badly compromised the draft is. We finished 3rd bottom last year, and should have got the player that went 3rd in the draft, which was Walter. We finished 4th bottom in 2020, we should have got the player that went 4th in the draft, which was McDonald. Makes sense no?

The late wins are not useless because of the fact the players aren’t going to check out, the players will want to win and tanking ain’t cool. Yeah you could look back and say it hurt us but I’d rather continue to get
continuity among the playing group.

Your argument is also invalid purely because it’s way too early to tell if 2020/21 draftees are going to absolutely make it or not or will absolutely be better than x player. Most haven’t reached 50 games yet.

Plus I’ll add that win backend of 2020 perhaps cost us McDonald but it saved Dylan Moores career.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

100% to all this though I'll argue DGB and Ward are bad players for where you want a top 10 pick to be (though that 2020 draft is an absolute stinker thanks to COVID, it's a miracle we got Chapman out of it).

We'll derail the thread but I would be all for making bids in the top 5 unable to be matched, with the growth in Northern states, NGAs and F/S now reaching a point where the bottom teams arent getting the assistance they are supposed to. It's completely ****ed and shown by North, yourselves and probably WC being stuck down there (though WC have probably gotten lucky Reid fell into their lap thanks to North). The only completely rebuilding team to get out of the bottom 8 in a while is Carlton who did the bulk of their rebuild before it all started getting absurdly compromised

Bolded is extremely harsh. DGB will take longer as a key position player and has shown he has the talent, will be back in the frame for selection soon with his turf toe and we can gauge more. But even more so with Ward who has definitely shown his ability at the top level despite playing VFL currently to work on his stoppage game that he isn’t able to get an opportunity at AFL yet. That’ll be a different discussion in 2-3 weeks time. But he has clear talent to suggest he’ll be a very good player, high floor but a high ceiling too.

 

[boncer34]

DGB will make a lot of people look silly if he ever gets a consistent run at it.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

Bolded is extremely harsh. DGB will take longer as a key position player and has shown he has the talent, will be back in the frame for selection soon with his turf toe and we can gauge more. But even more so with Ward who has definitely shown his ability at the top level despite playing VFL currently to work on his stoppage game that he isn’t able to get an opportunity at AFL yet. That’ll be a different discussion in 2-3 weeks time. But he has clear talent to suggest he’ll be a very good player, high floor but a high ceiling too.

Mate, I'm sorry but DGB is a dud until he shows literally anything at the level. Ward looks an ok AFL player but doesnt have traits to be a gun, just helps you tread water. Do you think he can be anywhere near the level of Serong, Anderson, Rowell, Brayshaw, Green, Gulden, Walsh, Warner. All of these guys show a lot very quickly. This is my point with rebuilding, it's not even ok to just hit on "decent" players with a top 10, you have to hit on guns to compete and do it consistently

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

DGB will make a lot of people look silly if he ever gets a consistent run at it.

DGB has shown absolutely nothing at AFL and barely much at VFL, this is off nothing but his draft rank

 

[smish]

DGB will make a lot of people look silly if he ever gets a consistent run at it.

Got loads of talent but struggling to bulk up and build his tank which will probably always hold him back unfortunately

 

[boncer34]

DGB has shown absolutely nothing at AFL and barely much at VFL, this is off nothing but his draft rank

Exhibit A

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Mate, I'm sorry but DGB is a dud until he shows literally anything at the level. Ward looks an ok AFL player but doesnt have traits to be a gun, just helps you tread water. Do you think he can be anywhere near the level of Serong, Anderson, Rowell, Brayshaw, Green, Gulden, Walsh, Warner. All of these guys show a lot very quickly. This is my point with rebuilding, it's not even ok to just hit on "decent" players with a top 10, you have to hit on guns to compete and do it consistently

Thankfully you’re not a list manager as harsh as that sounds.

DGB played a great game against Carlton in 2022, he’s played a few really good games for us at AFL level and has clear potential and traits. He’s a key defender, will take time. Calling him a dud is laughable.

His Carlton game for example. Lost by a point and he had 18 disposals at CHB.
18 disposals
7 contested
72%
6 marks
11 intercepts
4 spoils

With regard to Ward. He is in that Brayshaw mould of midfielder and he took time to develop.

Ward has plenty of talent, he’s a very good kick, creative, clean at ground level, good by hand, he’s tough, good leadership and his running capacity is top level, sets standards and is a great two way runner. I’m guaranteeing he’ll make it as a good player.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

Thankfully you’re not a list manager as harsh as that sounds.

DGB played a great game against Carlton in 2022, he’s played a few really good games for us at AFL level and has clear potential and traits. He’s a key defender, will take time. Calling him a dud is laughable.

His Carlton game for example. Lost by a point and he had 18 disposals at CHB.
18 disposals
7 contested
72%
6 marks
11 intercepts
4 spoils

With regard to Ward. He is in that Brayshaw mould of midfielder and he took time to develop.

Ward has plenty of talent, he’s a very good kick, creative, clean at ground level, good by hand, he’s tough, good leadership and his running capacity is top level, sets standards and is a great two way runner. I’m guaranteeing he’ll make it as a good player.

I dont know how after 4 years, DGB can be labelled anything but a dud, a couple of games here or there doesnt matter. You say take time but compare to the key position players from that top 10 to see how little he's shown in comparison.

Ward I'll apologise, say there is time to show me up though I still think he'll be a good to ok AFL player with no elite traits.

 

[sr36]

I wouldn’t include Crisp, consistency hasn’t been there but in their roles which is important. Daicos, IQ and such are elite at what they do, defending and being able to dash in Quaynors case and Daicos is genuinely the best winger in the competition aside from Errol Gulden.

Agree with that take too, he’ll be a very good player and people suggesting it’s a bad pick are ill informed. Moore is that specialist half forward and is brilliant at it.

Crisp as had a shocking start to 2024, but an extremely consistent 6 years and taken it up a notch in finals to hit peaks that the other two haven't gotten to, playing whatever role we've needed him to. Josh and IQ have to maintain their standards for a fair while to be on a par with Crisp.

 

[sr36]

Thankfully you’re not a list manager as harsh as that sounds.

DGB played a great game against Carlton in 2022, he’s played a few really good games for us at AFL level and has clear potential and traits. He’s a key defender, will take time. Calling him a dud is laughable.

His Carlton game for example. Lost by a point and he had 18 disposals at CHB.
18 disposals
7 contested
72%
6 marks
11 intercepts
4 spoils

With regard to Ward. He is in that Brayshaw mould of midfielder and he took time to develop.

Ward has plenty of talent, he’s a very good kick, creative, clean at ground level, good by hand, he’s tough, good leadership and his running capacity is top level, sets standards and is a great two way runner. I’m guaranteeing he’ll make it as a good player.

Last year one of the trade guys on SEN was saying that the Hawks have shopped DGB around the last two years as they don't think he's a kpp. No idea how legit.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Last year one of the trade guys on SEN was saying that the Hawks have shopped DGB around the last two years as they don't think he's a kpp. No idea how legit.

I very much doubt it. He’s never going to be a gorilla FB but he’ll be a CHB. Reads the play unbelievably well and throws himself at contest, a pretty good size for CHB and a good distributor

 

[VinnieB]

Mykelti Lefau has taken Kosi's spot at RFC

He would take Chol’s spot as well

 

[VinnieB]

I very much doubt it. He’s never going to be a gorilla FB but he’ll be a CHB. Reads the play unbelievably well and throws himself at contest, a pretty good size for CHB and a good distributor

Seriously????
Is that why he spends a lot of time in the VFL and then was tried as a forward?

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Seriously????
Is that why he spends a lot of time in the VFL and then was tried as a forward?

Trained all pre season in defense

Tried forward, looked okay but didn’t work. Played VFL as a defender end of last year and played well

Will come back from injury and play defense in the VFL till he’s ready for AFL footy.

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

I very much doubt it. He’s never going to be a gorilla FB but he’ll be a CHB. Reads the play unbelievably well and throws himself at contest, a pretty good size for CHB and a good distributor

If DGB can get to McGovern’s level at some point in his career from here the Hawks will be stoked.

Mitch that is.

Would be delisted by now if he were a 2nd rounder.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

If DGB can get to McGovern’s level at some point in his career from here the Hawks will be stoked.

Mitch that is.

Would be delisted by now if he were a 2nd rounder.

He’s a highly talented first rounder who’s had struggles building his body but shown his talents so we have stuck with him, injury hasn’t helped.

Just a dumb comparison and comment by you.

 

[Footy Smarts]

DGB will make a lot of people look silly if he ever gets a consistent run at it.

What counts as a consistent run? Wasn't he fit all of last year? He just played VFL for most of it. And he played 20 games across both levels the year before. So he's hardly been injury riddled.

Surely if Hawthorn rated him anywhere near his draft rating they wouldn't be leaving him in the VFL in his 3rd season when they're rebuilding.

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

He’s a highly talented first rounder who’s had struggles building his body but shown his talents so we have stuck with him, injury hasn’t helped.

Just a dumb comparison and comment by you.

Highly talented is debatable. He’s a fourth year player stuck in the VFL at a rebuilding Hawthorn who are crying out for a gun CHB. Gibcus and Andrew had no problem cementing their positions in better sides and they are a year younger. Similar draft picks. You said it yourself, in his best game at CHB he had 6 marks and 4 spoils. What a player.

If he gets to the level of Mitch McGovern, that is a decent interceptor in a top 6 side, Conman Sam and the recruiters would be over the moon. He is coming from a long way back.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

What counts as a consistent run? Wasn't he fit all of last year? He just played VFL for most of it. And he played 20 games across both levels the year before. So he's hardly been injury riddled.

Surely if Hawthorn rated him anywhere near his draft rating they wouldn't be leaving him in the VFL in his 3rd season when they're rebuilding.

He was going really well down back in the VFL, they just couldnt squeeze him past superstars Sam Frost and James Blanck so they just had to see how he would look up forward...

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Highly talented is debatable. He’s a fourth year player stuck in the VFL at a rebuilding Hawthorn who are crying out for a gun CHB. Gibcus and Andrew had no problem cementing their positions in better sides and they are a year younger. Similar draft picks. You said it yourself, in his best game at CHB he had 6 marks and 4 spoils. What a player.

If he gets to the level of Mitch McGovern, that is a decent interceptor in a top 6 side, Conman Sam and the recruiters would be over the moon. He is coming from a long way back.

He’s clearly highly rated and talented. It’s not a footballing ability issue. It’s physically, the development of his endurance and body composition not being to where we’d of liked. He’s at a good point coming back from injury now, an interesting watch.

In one of his better games I can remember he did well with the stats I mentioned but that was also 2022 before all of his football derails with injuries and setback.

He’s not stuck in the VFL he’s been injured.

And no, he’ll be better than Mitch McGovern once he gets continuity in his football. These opinions are why people on big footy are just fans. Biased fans, and not ever likely to be in a footballing department or recruiter/coach. Quick to shun youth and talented players and no be able to identify talent.