Analysis Hawthorn rebuild: are they tanking?

[sr36]

Again, how many of Collingwoods premiership team were ‘A’ grad and not just having an outstanding year with the others

I make 3 or 4

I'd say 3. Moore, Nick Daicos JDG. But I wouldn't say the others were just having a good year. A few former A grade players who were still very reliable. Some other very good reliable players. And a fair few role players with a damaging trick.

I'd say the same about most of the top 8. Carlton and Dees have a couple more top liners, but their role players aren't as damaging. Brisbane more in the very good reliable player bracket.

I think you need a few top-liners and I think it's pretty optimistic to think the Hawks already have blokes who will become that on their list. Day and Newcombe might get there, but it's very optimistic. No one else looks particularly likely.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

I'd say 3. Moore, Nick Daicos JDG. But I wouldn't say the others were just having a good year. A few former A grade players who were still very reliable. Some other very good reliable players. And a fair few role players with a damaging trick.

I'd say the same about most of the top 8. Carlton and Dees have a couple more top liners, but their role players aren't as damaging. Brisbane more in the very good reliable player bracket.

I think you need a few top-liners and I think it's pretty optimistic to think the Hawks already have blokes who will become that on their list. Day and Newcombe might get there, but it's very optimistic. No one else looks particularly likely.

I’ll add Josh Daicos as a winger is definitely A Grade and I think some could say Maynard is in his role, he’s one of the best small lockdown defenders in the competition, Isaac Quaynor is at his role aswell, lockdown small with capacity to run and gun. “A Grade” is super subjective and pointless at times, often used to describe midfielders more often than not.

But as you said, some teams have the top end talent or more stars but less capable role players, I’d say that’s where Carlton, or GWS are/have been but they’ve built more depth recently and seen heightened improvement due to that. Collingwood/Geelong better examples of good systems and role players.

 

[Red Bull]

Well name them, there's a reason why they are located on this spot on the ladder. I think their list manager is terrible

 

[Dewyyyyy]

View attachment 1974956

Are you ok?

 

[peetoo]

View attachment 1974956

Why not post the same picture a few more times?

 

[sr36]

I’ll add Josh Daicos as a winger is definitely A Grade and I think some could say Maynard is in his role, he’s one of the best small lockdown defenders in the competition, Isaac Quaynor is at his role aswell, lockdown small with capacity to run and gun. “A Grade” is super subjective and pointless at times, often used to describe midfielders more often than not.

But as you said, some teams have the top end talent or more stars but less capable role players, I’d say that’s where Carlton, or GWS are/have been but they’ve built more depth recently and seen heightened improvement due to that. Collingwood/Geelong better examples of good systems and role players.

Yeah. Everyone has their own parameter of what they mean with their gradings. I mean a star of the comp, as I think every team who has survived at the top for a while has a few.

So yes Hawks have some tracking to e your definition of A grader, if you're including Josh, IQ and Crisp. But that level above them is looking unlikely to me.

What we're seeing with the Cats and Pies and Richmond before them is the rise of the specialised flanker. The flanks and pockets are no longer filled with the next best mid, they're specialists with a specialist skillset to be damaging in those roles. It's why I think criticism of you guys taking Wiz so early is way off. An elite forward pocket, if he becomes one, is gold

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

It's quite a well thought out 2 year plan.

Year 1 captain retires. Trade out all the seniors payers you can convince to leave. Don't try to add anyone.

Year 2 chase a group of mid career medium talented talls and one of the senior players you traded out the year before - the one who is the most cooked.

Your posts are getting worse.

Chol is the only mid career player we traded in, in a position of need.

You keep pretending like there wasn’t pages of posts all over bigfooty saying “Hawthorn need to find someone to help Lewis”.

 

[VinnieB]

Brandon Ryan is older than Mitch Lewis lol.

He's 26. Just a few months shy of Chol.

Oopsy….
I suppose still 6 years younger than Gunston.

I’m fairly sure Hawk fans last season were excited about him as a prospect.

 

[Freomaniac]

Jaeger is okay, he speaks well, good training standards and he’s a solid contributor. But he isn’t and hasn’t ever been a star. Not since he did his knee the first time before that he was showcasing to being one of the best.

Meek wanted opportunities and he got them, he’s taken it now by the scruff of the neck and it’s extremely pleasing.

He is a strong ruck, uses his physical presence well. He’s pretty good in the ruck with his tap work, it’s improved plenty since early doors. But he’s also like an extra midfielder and is athletic. I’d like to see him take more marks and get forward more but his game is that like Grundy, who isn’t dominant at either of those things.

My point is Meeks career might end up like Sam Jacobs career which isn't a bad thing.

Sauce Jacobs played like 17 games in 4 seasons at Carlton, he was mainly behind Kreuzer.

Jacobs went back to his home state and play for the crows. Essentially spent most of his career there. Then signed a 2 year contract at GWS, he only lasted 1 season at GWS.

I expect Meek to spend his prime years at the hawks. I won't be surprised he leaves at 31 or 32 years old and finished his career at another club

 

[VinnieB]

Your posts are getting worse.

Chol is the only mid career player we traded in, in a position of need.

You keep pretending like there wasn’t pages of posts all over bigfooty saying “Hawthorn need to find someone to help Lewis”.

You had someone. But traded him to Brisbane for Gunston. You had another who you traded to Richmond.

So you decided to bring another equally ordinary player who, apart from an outlier year, has been in the system for so long and never been able to establish himself as a senior player.

Would have been better off going to the VFL, SANFL or WAFL.

 

[SSSSSS]

Oopsy….
I suppose still 6 years younger than Gunston.

I’m fairly sure Hawk fans last season were excited about him as a prospect.

He's very raw and has some exciting traits. Did really well against the Pies last year in a good win. He's also 26 turning 27 with the body of a teenager.

But we got a second rounder for a guy who was playing VAFA football just 6 months before.

Lions offered him a much better deal and you can't begrudge the guy to take it and I don't think the club would have stood in his way.

3 year deal in front of him on much better coin than a standard MSD pick vs 12 months.

It was kind of a no brainer and a win win for all parties.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Again, how many of Collingwoods premiership team were ‘A’ grad and not just having an outstanding year with the others

I make 3 or 4

Moore, N Daicos, De Goey & Pendlebury for starters

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

You had someone. But traded him to Brisbane for Gunston. You had another who you traded to Richmond.

So you decided to bring another equally ordinary player who, apart from an outlier year, has been in the system for so long and never been able to establish himself as a senior player.

Would have been better off going to the VFL, SANFL or WAFL.

Ryan was built like a twig and might not ever make it, and despite having upside you absolutely take a player like Chol who can take ruck minutes and has the greater exposed form at AFL over him.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Why not post the same picture a few more times?

Say the line…

Post the picture…

 

[sr36]

Your posts are getting worse.

Chol is the only mid career player we traded in, in a position of need.

You keep pretending like there wasn’t pages of posts all over bigfooty saying “Hawthorn need to find someone to help Lewis”.

I think your posts are getting worse.

I'm talking about strategy and you're talking about minutea.

Hawthorn's strategy has been clear but I don't think you can see it at all.

Year 1, slash and burn. Some young mids stood up. Great we're sorted and ready to rise. Let's add some flankers and chase the free agent talls. Even though the free agent talls are extremely likely to be out of whack with the timeline of the rest of your rebuild. Shit, we missed the free agent talls, let's add Mabior Chol and get Gunstan back.

The issue is that there just isn't enough talent in place. If you were a team just looking to survive and do the best you can each year, this year's strategy would be good. But you don't do that slash and burn the year before if you're a team just trying to survive. You do it if you're willing to have some painful years down the bottom in order to have a really strong rebuild.

 

[Gavin Excell]

Is Chol a significant upgrade on Koshistcke?

 

[smish]

Is Chol a significant upgrade on Koshistcke?

Mykelti Lefau has taken Kosi's spot at RFC

 

[Mr Meow]

Is Chol a significant upgrade on Koshistcke?

Yes. Kozzy is much worse than Henry Playfair was.

 

[freo1]

Clearly you didn’t watch Tom’s last year with us. Extremely frustrating calling for ball in bad spots, poor quality of disposal and tendency to go sideways not forwards are what I remember

I’ll repeat again but I never said he’d lead your midfield. Purely his leadership and experience would be highly valuable right now. If you think he’s that bad and shouldn’t be playing well the Collingwood premiership team says hi

 

[Philhawk]

The issue is that there just isn't enough talent in place. If you were a team just looking to survive and do the best you can each year, this year's strategy would be good. But you don't do that slash and burn the year before if you're a team just trying to survive. You do it if you're willing to have some painful years down the bottom in order to have a really strong rebuild.

Very astutely observed. Of interest, how often do teams down the bottom of the ladder find themselves there when they have got enough talent on their list?

If only there was a mechanism to provide them with more talent.

 

[TerryWallet]

I, for one, am very surprised that reality doesn't respect "Because Hawthorn".

 

[SSSSSS]

The issue with all of this is that there was zero movement on the recruitment front in the year they lost all their experience. No experience added. No talk of Hawthorn chasing player x. Only talk of Hawthorn trying to sell player y,z,a,b,c - everyone over 28, from very early in 2022. And that's what they did, except for a couple of blokes who didn't want to leave.

Lol we were linked to about half a dozen players by the media and continually are.

Idk how substantiated the rumours are but seems like every player agent and their dog has been trying to chase that Hawthorn bag.

 

[SSSSSS]

Is Chol a significant upgrade on Koshistcke?

Yes.

Chol has already kicked the same amount of goals as Kosi did all year last season. In fairness he only played a dozen games but he never had to battle it alone as the #1 target.

 

[Guardian Hawk]

Take the pick with most of your posts, it's a bit rich saying someone else's posts are bizarre coming from you. There was nothing wrong with his post

Mate, the post was absolutely bizarre.

Is there any argument that Lever plays in a much better team?

Lever's key defensive partner is Steven May - one of the best full backs in the league. I'm not exaggerating when I say that Sam Frost is the best key defender Sicily has played with in the last 5 years. His other options have been Kyle Hartigan, James Blanck and Tim O'Brien.

Lever plays behind one of (if not the) best midfields in the league, led by the best ruckman of this generation. Sicily plays behind the statistically worst midfield in the league over the last 5 years, especially at defensive transition. Of course, he is more 'worried' playing Melbourne than playing Hawthorn and of course Melbourne is more likely to win (which has very little to do with Sicily or Lever -as Gary Ablett and many, many others showed - you can be the best player in the league but if your team is shit, you are not winning anything).

He then went on to say that Lever "wins games off his own boot" and is more likely to "win a Grand Final off his own boot". The thing is, Lever has played 167 games and never gotten 3 BL votes and only once received 10 coaches votes. He's been considered outright best on ground once in his career (against a bottom of the ladder Hawthorn matched up on the might of Fergus Greene) and never received a vote in a final* or Grand final. Sicily, on the other hand, has been clear best on ground (and dragged Hawthorn over the line) over and over and over again (you should see Hawthorn's record comparison with and without Sicily - it's likely the greatest difference of any single player in the league). Since returning from an ACL the season before last, Sicily has received about as many coaches votes as Lever has in his entire career (and way more BL votes, media votes, etc).

Frankly, I think you perhaps don't watch many non-Melbourne games and underrate Sicily accordingly. Sicily was poor against you guys earlier this year with Fritsch beating him comfortably but that is very far from the norm. Since returning from an ACL at the start of 2022, Sicily is:

The #1 key defender for kicks
The #1 key defender for marks
The #1 key defender for contested possessions
The #1 key defender for metres gained
The #2 key defender for intercepts (#1 Sam Taylor)
The #1 key defender for Coaches votes
The #1 key defender for Brownlow votes.
All while losing very few one on ones (15% last season for example), despite playing CHB whilst being (much) shorter than someone like Kamdyn McIntosh.

He's a better player than you give him credit for, being asked to do too much as a third tall, being asked to be a key defender in an under siege defence with no competent key defenders AND be an attacking weapon from the backline AND being asked to captain.

He's had some average games this year when he is trying to do one of those tasks (usually be an attacking outlet) at the expense of another (usually having to leave his man, only for Hawthorn to turn the ball over and kick straight to his opponent).

I'm confident if he got the luxury of playing for a team like Melbourne, you would view him very, very differently.

*Edit: Looked deeper and apologies, can now see that Lever was named 5th best on ground in a final once (in a comfortable week 1 win). Still not sure it adds to the argument that "Lever is more likely to win a Grand Final off his own boot".

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

I think your posts are getting worse.

I'm talking about strategy and you're talking about minutea.

Hawthorn's strategy has been clear but I don't think you can see it at all.

Year 1, slash and burn. Some young mids stood up. Great we're sorted and ready to rise. Let's add some flankers and chase the free agent talls. Even though the free agent talls are extremely likely to be out of whack with the timeline of the rest of your rebuild. s**t, we missed the free agent talls, let's add Mabior Chol and get Gunstan back.

The issue is that there just isn't enough talent in place. If you were a team just looking to survive and do the best you can each year, this year's strategy would be good. But you don't do that slash and burn the year before if you're a team just trying to survive. You do it if you're willing to have some painful years down the bottom in order to have a really strong rebuild.

I’ve already told you that it’s apparent that you have no idea what our strategy was/is.
It was never “all kids at the draft, no trades”.

You keep trying to redefine the strategy with throwaway lines like “slash and burn”.

The footy dept made the call to get more young talent on the list in 2021 and start to bring them through together. They didn’t make some sort of statement that all players over 28 were no longer required, they simply made the decision that if a mutually acceptable outcome was available to said players that they’d present it and to the players and let them have the final say.
GWS offered up first round picks to Hawthorn in order to get both Breust and Wingard, Hawthorn said “sure, you can ask the question of them”, both said no thanks.
If you think I’m making this up, Jon Ralph and others reported as much at the time.
By the end of 2022 the footy dept made a decision that the midfield needed to grow together and that Tom was holding it back. JOM wasn’t someone we really wanted to lose, but he got drunk at Cogs wedding and told Giants he was open to a move there(which Freo ultimately jumped into once they got wind of it).

We never had the tall depth even back then, so pretending like adding Chol last year is some backflip, when we’d simply identified that Kosi wasn’t the answer is bogus.

If you go look at the Hawthorn crows and north thread, you’ll find that the story for the last three years has been the same. Hawthorn don’t have the tall talent, they have kids with some potential only.
To pretend like adding Chol and trying to find help for Sicily is some sort of backflip from moving on $800K midfielders is simply ridiculous.