Opinion "Help me out where I need faith!" - The Statistical Data Thread

[JUSTWORK]

Westhoff could be a vital cog in a premiership winning side, but not if he's playing primarily as a KPF.

More so if he figures out how to perform to a reasonably high level every week not once or twice a year.

 

[El_Scorcho]

More so if he figures out how to perform to a reasonably high level every week not once or twice a year.

Agree totally.

I believe that will settle down when he's able to play his rangey, high half forward Chess Queen ((c) tribey) role instead of being forced to cover for missing talls all over the ground.

 

[TeeKray]

Agree totally.

I believe that will settle down when he's able to play his rangey, high half forward Chess Queen ((c) tribey) role instead of being forced to cover for missing talls all over the ground.

Which - let's face it - will never happen, so lol.

 

[Asgardian]

Show me someone who works out footy by stats and I'll show you an American umpire

 

[Schulzenfest]

Ladhams would have to have an improvement of about 1000% statistically, to figure in any AFL level conversation.

This is true. There's something about him that I reeeeeeeally like long term though. I reckon he's more chance of being on our list in 5 year's time than Frampton.

 

[RossFC]

Bump. I reckon we are in trouble.

 

[OneGreatClub]

There's a stat for ya.
http://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/the...n/news-story/51659013bbc5b65e508f762ff444836a
Two unsuccessful seasons later and the Power are in danger of missing the finals for a third straight season.

While the Power have underachieved in many pundits’ eyes, they’ve actually had the best ladder percentage of any non-finalist across the past two consecutive seasons, suggesting they’re better than most think.

But, numerically and stylistically, they’re a shadow of the team that fell a kick of short of reaching the 2014 grand final.

 

[Chrizzt]

There's a stat for ya.
http://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/the...n/news-story/51659013bbc5b65e508f762ff444836a
Two unsuccessful seasons later and the Power are in danger of missing the finals for a third straight season.

While the Power have underachieved in many pundits’ eyes, they’ve actually had the best ladder percentage of any non-finalist across the past two consecutive seasons, suggesting they’re better than most think.

But, numerically and stylistically, they’re a shadow of the team that fell a kick of short of reaching the 2014 grand final.

I know it means naught for 2015/16 but given the complete crapshoot that close games are - and how many we were involved in for those years - the ladder percentage stat is telling. Obviously we want to lift to the point where we are playing 4 quarters and not having so many close games, but I think there's enough to be optimistic about.

 

[Janus]

Bump. I reckon we are in trouble.

And I say you fly boys crack me up!

 

[Magus]

There's a stat for ya.
http://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/the...n/news-story/51659013bbc5b65e508f762ff444836a
Two unsuccessful seasons later and the Power are in danger of missing the finals for a third straight season.

While the Power have underachieved in many pundits’ eyes, they’ve actually had the best ladder percentage of any non-finalist across the past two consecutive seasons, suggesting they’re better than most think.

But, numerically and stylistically, they’re a shadow of the team that fell a kick of short of reaching the 2014 grand final.

Pretty easy to do when you finish ninth, innit?

 

[OneGreatClub]

Pretty easy to do when you finish ninth, innit?

Except we finished 10th last year.

 

[Magus]

Except we finished 10th last year.

Booo we suck.

 

[JUSTWORK]

Interestingly champion datas 2017 ladder simulation has us finishing 5th !!!!

 

[Sleezy]

Interestingly champions datas 2017 ladder simulation has us finishing 5th !!!!

Hah, so does mine. That makes me feel a little better.

 

[Coobk001]

As per the above link, originally I posted this in 'Let's talk Port' so moving it across.

Champion Data's prediction...

http://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/how-many-games-will-your-club-win-in-2017-champion-datas-simulation-of-afl-season-for-every-team/news-story/1c9d3e4c2c1b1088f34d795b4cde517f

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My observations would be that the Crows ball movement and their forward line compensates for their midfield in an unexpected manner. Additionally they have some sort of gameplan and structure in the clearances which allows them to break even here regardless of the fact their midfield gets beaten overall. As such I think they will continue to get better results than they statistically should.

I would also say that I did think at the end of last year that WCE would be a top side this year, but I'm not still convinced of that.

Also the position of Collingwood is a surprise to me, I would switch them out for the Crows.

In the bottom half, Carlton will finish dead last, and Melbourne far higher. I'd also expect that Essendon's issues last year have skewed their statistical data.


I think we're in the running for the 8 as I believe our depth is going to prove a lot better than people think, and I've predicted multiple times that the Magpies will be minor premier in the SANFL. The question mark for me with regards to our chances is can we straighten out our issues quick enough to get through the first 4 games with a 2-2 record. If we start the season 1-3 or 0-4 the spiralling confidence concerns that could create could derail our season before it has begun.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

The Arc - Footy graphed, guy has got a regular weekly gig with ESPN - Footy Forensics

I’ll be writing a weekly column for ESPN throughout the 2017 AFL men’s competition. The first piece looks at each team’s chances of making the finals. Go have a look!

You can read the article in full here but I will just copy the first couple paragraph and put up his graphs. He talks about ELO ratings, their limitations, AFL player ratings and U-Bet odds. Our AFL player rating is pretty high

http://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/18912776/
After simulating every match of the 2017 season 10,000 times, we've predicted the likely finishing position of every AFL team. How is your club shaping up?

Greater Western Sydney, by general consensus, are the favourites to take the 2017 AFL premiership, but don't be fooled into thinking they have the season stitched up just yet. In fact, Elo ratings suggest the Giants only have the fourth-highest probability of making the finals, behind the Swans, Crows, and Bulldogs. Our estimates of teams' chances of making the finals are based on Elo ratings, which are a popular way of rating sports teams. In an Elo ratings system, teams are rated based on their match results, after taking into account home-ground advantage and the quality of their opposition.
http://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/18912776/

 

[Coobk001]

That's a fascinating article. So in terms of Player talent we are ranked 5th by the AFL Player ratings and the ELO rating based on trending performance has us ranked 8th. Then Champion data has us ranked 5-8th with 13 wins.

I know I don't come into the season with much confidence we can do anything significant in September, but I do believe we can push for the top 8, and when you look at stats like this you really have to wonder why so many have us tipped for bottom 4.

 

[Janus]

That's a fascinating article. So in terms of Player talent we are ranked 5th by the AFL Player ratings and the ELO rating based on trending performance has us ranked 8th. Then Champion data has us ranked 5-8th with 13 wins.

I know I don't come into the season with much confidence we can do anything significant in September, but I do believe we can push for the top 8, and when you look at stats like this you really have to wonder why so many have us tipped for bottom 4.

Because it was never about talent, but application. People just don't think we've got the mental fortitude required to do anything of note after two years of having high expectations that we failed to meet. I've said that 2015 and 2016 were completely different, but we still should have made finals both years regardless.

We just don't have the consistency of performance that you expect from a finals side. Well that changes this year, because if you have two poor games in a row, there won't be a third - it will be straight back to the SANFL with someone who is young and hungry to come in and perform.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

If CD ever release kicking efficiency sats I will stick them in the can't kick can't play footy thread, so I will stick the disposal efficiency stuff here. Rd 1 figures are below from manipulating the data at
http://www.afl.com.au/stats
The figures below are from Rd 1 but the average is affected by tonight's Richmond and Collingwood game. On a greasy SCG we were 2nd bottom for the round at 69.3% and Sydney 14th at 71.8%. Given most sides get between 350 and 400 disposals a game 1% difference is approx 4 disposals per game. So Sydney had about 10 more efficient disposals than us.

Richmond finished Rd 1 at 79.0% disposal efficiency or approx 35 cleaner disposals than Port, but they played on a nice dry still Thursday night v Carlton.

Assuming 64% was the AFL kicking efficiency for Round 1, which is around the historical average, then the handball efficiency is about 87.7% to get to the AFL average Rd 1 average of 74.3%, given the kicking handball mix in Rd 1.

I reckon this will be one of the few games we win when our kicking average is more than a couple of percentages less than the AFL weekly average and the opposition higher than us. If we handballed at 85% then our kicking efficiency was 60.3%. The weather compared to the rest of the 7 dry games had an impact, with only the game in the wet on the GC comparing and both Brisbane and GC being in the bottom 5 with Sydney and Port. The Saints were obviously poor under the roof o be in the bottom 5.

I reckon if all 9 games are dry and not effected by wind and we kick at less than 60% in a game, we wont win.

 

[mattsea]

Any system that ranks Adelaide (1640) over Geelong (1635) is fundamentally flawed.

Not sure this take has held up super well

 

[Janus]

Not sure this take has held up super well

I stand by my comments. If Adelaide makes it further in finals than Geelong, you can come talk to me then

 

[mattsea]

I stand by my comments. If Adelaide makes it further in finals than Geelong, you can come talk to me then

1) A higher rating doesn't necessarily entail a prediction that a team will make it further in the finals.

2) If Adelaide makes it further in the finals than Geelong, I won't regard that as vindication of my ratings system, and if Geelong makes it further than Adelaide I won't regard that as a failure.

Their ratings are currently extremely close - 1696 v 1669. That means that if Adelaide played the Cats on neutral territory (no HGA), I'd expect Adelaide to win 54% of the time. They're very close.

What ratings/projection system do you like?

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

This was on Port's website which they pinched off afl.com.au saying where each team was after 5 rounds, statistically speaking.

http://www.portadelaidefc.com.au/news/2017-04-28/18-clubs-current-trends
Turnovers were a major source of frustration for the Power last year, but in the opening five rounds they have gone some way to rectifying that problem. It all comes down to patience, better decision-making and ball use. The Power led the League in clangers in 2016, averaging 58 per game. This season, that average is down to 52, 11th in the competition. Part of the reason is because they are playing on less after they take a mark, from 42.5 per cent (second) in 2016 to 32.3 per cent (17th) this year. The Power's disposal efficiency has also improved from 70.7 per cent (seventh) to 72.1 per cent (4th). The Power's attack is more potent than last year on the back of Robbie Gray spending more time in the forward 50. Gray has booted 14 goals in five games, well on track to eclipse his career-high of 42 goals in a season set in 2014. The return of ruckman Patrick Ryder has allowed the Power's midfielders first use of the ball, one of the reasons why they have the most Inside 50s in the competition at 61 per game. - Lee Gaskin http://www.portadelaidefc.com.au/news/2017-04-28/18-clubs-current-trends

I have bolded the bit about playing on after taking a mark. People foolishly believe that playing on straight away helps us move the ball quicker. Its BS if you don't know what is around you and where players are down the field. You only play on straight away when you know for sure who and what is around you and what options are on down the field. Playing on for playing on's sake doesn't mean much.

And Kenny pointed to it in his presser tonight saying we are more composed this year.

http://www.portadelaidefc.com.au/news/2017-04-29/hinkley-our-composure-is-improving
"We'd love to play 120 minutes straight, play it all on our terms, but we know AFL football doesn't allow that, the competition's too even," Hinkley said. "I thought today was pretty comprehensive in the amount of time we controlled the game.

"I love it when we play fast footy, like everyone does. I think everyone loves their team playing a fast, exciting brand of football, but just to have the composure at the right moments, and I think we're getting better at that."
http://www.portadelaidefc.com.au/news/2017-04-29/hinkley-our-composure-is-improving

 

[Janus]

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Percentage per quarter makes for interesting reading for the top 5 sides

Adel total 160.88% 1st 108/ 2nd 264/ 3rd 165 / 4th 174
GWS total 133.33% 165/ 92/ 96/ 224
Gee total 131.87% 117/ 113/ 82/ 289
Ric. total 112.02% 127/ 94/ 75/ 189
PA.. total 152.16% 180/ 141/ 191/ 103

GWS last quarter results are 29.21 for v 13.9 against. If you take out the Adelaide game its 26.21 for v 6.8 against that's over 400%. They are fit enough to run out a game.

Richmond's 4th quarter were only marginally affected by the result against the crows as they kicked 2.1 to the crows 3.3

Port's results show we are starting really well, best in the league, have big 3rd quarters but don't put sides to the sword in the last quarter, well GWS put us to the sword which has evened everything out. We have kicked 20.17 to the oppo's 19.18. GWS kick 5 goals to our nothing in the last quarter in Canberra.

Geelong are over running everyone in the last quarter, even out scored Collingwood by a goal yesterday.

Adelaide have been slow starters but big 2nd quarters and keep powering on after half time.

You can get all the info by clicking on the team you want at the ladder on the front page of Final Siren and then in the team page click on Quarter statistics tab.

http://finalsiren.com/