Vic How would you rate Daniel Andrews' performance as Victorian Premier? - Part 7

[Pakenhamsaint]

I can confidently say, without even the slightest hint of doubt, that John Pesutto would never have acted as Planning Minister in the way Matthew Guy did. Guy was a law onto himself as Planning Minister.

With Guy it's a classic case of follow the money.

And its almost certain the assumptions used have been fudged to the ninth degree to make the benefits as large as possible. Even though as you show, they arent even that large anyway.

Every economic study ive been involved in commissioned by either the government of the day or the opposition party have used dramatically loose assumptions that no one ever properly validates. The economic cost benefit analysis report industry is currently a sham with zero oversight. I had to leave the industry as I was finding this sort of work immoral and depressing.

You see it all the time with say road projects. They greatly overstate the benefits. Then they look shocked when it underachieves. The opposite happens on rail projects. They understate the befits. The look shocked it's overachieving.

the story has quite a way to run yet i think t.p. and i'm not just referencing newscorpse who'll wring every piece of blood out of it, but respected publications too. what impact it'll have come the election only time will tell.

perhaps if some of your peeps gave pesutto some free air the impact might be more long-term.

The Murdoch rags will do what they have done in the past. Carry on like pork chops and make themselves look unhinged.

 

[tandino]

Plenty of Labor voters such as myself found Shorten unpalatable.

That's not the point I'm making. It doesn't factor into criticism and analysis of Morrison's decisions.

 

[MJG14]

Media giving a lot of attention to calls for Jacinta Allan to resign. These calls don't seem to be from anyone credible.

 

[DaBarz]

Again you clearly don't read the posts you reply to, because the post sais despite all the Murdoch driven faux outrage to which you responded well none of them pay tax in Victoria like that's how the news works.

You clearly don’t read my replies and in typical fashion you react to one word -“Murdoch” .

The point was made that nobody in the world gave a red rats - I was responding to the lack of this interest.

My point in reply was that they are not Vic taxpayers so they are not invested in this fiasco.

Quite simple really.
Then you pipe up with “Murdoch”.

I pointed out that in the original post, and then clarified, that even Murdochs overseas media didn’t report on it.
Your obsession and fear of such is misplaced.

This is pretty funny. For all the politically driven faux outrage of the Murdoch press no one else in the world seems to be fussed at all about the loss of the games.

Get it yet ?

Nobody else in the world are Vic taxpayers

I honestly can’t make it any clearer.

If (there’s that “weasel word” again lol) Murdoch wants to embarrass Andrews globally, he can should he choose. Although I think probably more the case that Andrews has sha* in his own nest once too often and Andrews has done a good enough job of embarrassing himself.

 

[Satan]

Commonwealth Games bureaucrats and Victorian Treasury officials knew in April that the estimated cost of running the event had blown out to double the $2.6 billion figure quoted a year earlier by the government’s own bid team.

The Office of the Commonwealth Games, the government department responsible for overseeing the planning and delivery of the now aborted event, submitted a detailed business case and operational plan to Treasury ahead of the May state budget asking for a $5 billion funding allocation to cover the increased costs.

 

[Mofra]

So if news is correct Jacinta Allen will be the one taking the bullet for Andrews * up

She's the annointed successor. This could cause in-fighting If Dan tries to hive off the blame to JA.

 

[Mofra]

Not backtracking, just saying that labels are dumb like most liveable city or restaurant capital. But I genuinely think we have more on offer than any other Australian city and are right up there in the world. Anyway that’s off topic

I do wonder if the committee judging these metrics ever use public transport at peak time when judging cities.

There's still a fair bit of catch up with to do in Melbourne.

 

[Mofra]

Commonwealth Games bureaucrats and Victorian Treasury officials knew in April that the estimated cost of running the event had blown out to double the $2.6 billion figure quoted a year earlier by the government’s own bid team.

The Office of the Commonwealth Games, the government department responsible for overseeing the planning and delivery of the now aborted event, submitted a detailed business case and operational plan to Treasury ahead of the May state budget asking for a $5 billion funding allocation to cover the increased costs.

If this is true, it should be Dan that cops the full blame for this, not JA.

Deliberately misleading when he made the announcement to can the games.

 

[The Punter]

She's the annointed successor. This could cause in-fighting If Dan tries to hive off the blame to JA.

Jacinta has a reputation in parliament for not being particularly well liked on a personal level. I'm not sure there would be too much friction if Andrews decided that she was going to be the one to take the blame for this.

The opposition calling for her resignation is certainly playing into this.

Also, does seem like the story is bubbling along.

 

[Hornberger]

Deliberately misleading when he made the announcement to can the games.

Which particular comments where misleading?

 

[Mofra]

Which particular comments where misleading?

Read the post I quoted. The cost blowouts may well have been known months ago, pre-budget.

This has been handled poorly. I didn't want the games in the first place and canceling is the right call, but the way it's been done is woeful. There does seem to be a strong lack of communication about the matter with important stakeholders too

 

[Rob R]

Media giving a lot of attention to calls for Jacinta Allan to resign. These calls don't seem to be from anyone credible.

Well Dan does like to blame the nearest convenient woman for any problems so if it blows up then she will probably be his scapegoat of choice unless there is a senior female public servant he can sack.

On SM-A125F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[FRUMPY]

When you go overseas and say you're from Australia everyone just says Sydney. And when you say no they have no idea what you're talking about

We were in San Diego and got chatting to some locals and said we were from Melbourne, and he said, 'oh my mate is in Melbourne atm, do you know him?'

'ah, probbaly not, its a big town mate'

 

[Festerz]

Read the post I quoted. The cost blowouts may well have been known months ago, pre-budget.

This has been handled poorly. I didn't want the games in the first place and canceling is the right call, but the way it's been done is woeful. There does seem to be a strong lack of communication about the matter with important stakeholders too

The Age story from which these dates and numbers are listed is here:

Officials knew about Games cost blowout months ago

A whopping $5 billion in funding to cover the increased costs of hosting the Games was requested ahead of the May state budget. It didn’t arrive.

www.theage.com.au

The Office of the Commonwealth Games, the government department responsible for overseeing the planning and delivery of the now aborted event, submitted a detailed business case and operational plan to Treasury ahead of the May state budget asking for a $5 billion funding allocation to cover the increased costs.

The proposed Games budget included a risk analysis of additional costs likely to come from shortages of labour, materials and accommodation for workers in regional areas which, if realised, could push the total bill to $6 billion.

The Age spoke to sources with knowledge of the proposed Games budget, speaking confidentially to divulge sensitive information.

They revealed the operational cost jumped from $1.3 billion to $1.9 billion and the capital expense of building athlete villages and constructing new and improving existing sports venues had leapt from $1.3 billion to $2.6 billion.

Probably most damning (in terms of financial estimates and due diligence being undertaken prior to committing to host the games) is this revelation:

The sources also revealed that the original bid documents contained no financial estimate for the cost of government services – primarily transport and police – required to safely hold the 12-day sporting festival across five regional centres. That resulted in an additional $500 million being lumped onto the overall operational cost, bringing it to $2.4 billion.

 

[Jascave]

Which Labor MP would be the one most likely to launch a leadership challenge against Daniel Andrews? And how many votes would he/she needed to either make life uncomfortable (ie go close to the winning margin which would make other Labor MPs think about doing another leadership spill ie Hawke/Keating 1991) or maybe even topple Andrews as Premier of Victoria?

 

[adogsfan5]

The Age story from which these dates and numbers are listed is here:

Officials knew about Games cost blowout months ago

A whopping $5 billion in funding to cover the increased costs of hosting the Games was requested ahead of the May state budget. It didn’t arrive.

www.theage.com.au

The Office of the Commonwealth Games, the government department responsible for overseeing the planning and delivery of the now aborted event, submitted a detailed business case and operational plan to Treasury ahead of the May state budget asking for a $5 billion funding allocation to cover the increased costs.

The proposed Games budget included a risk analysis of additional costs likely to come from shortages of labour, materials and accommodation for workers in regional areas which, if realised, could push the total bill to $6 billion.

The Age spoke to sources with knowledge of the proposed Games budget, speaking confidentially to divulge sensitive information.

They revealed the operational cost jumped from $1.3 billion to $1.9 billion and the capital expense of building athlete villages and constructing new and improving existing sports venues had leapt from $1.3 billion to $2.6 billion.

Probably most damning (in terms of financial estimates and due diligence being undertaken prior to committing to host the games) is this revelation:

The sources also revealed that the original bid documents contained no financial estimate for the cost of government services – primarily transport and police – required to safely hold the 12-day sporting festival across five regional centres. That resulted in an additional $500 million being lumped onto the overall operational cost, bringing it to $2.4 billion.

That is staggering. Thanks for posting.

 

[Mofra]

Which Labor MP would be the one most likely to launch a leadership challenge against Daniel Andrews? And how many votes would he/she needed to either make life uncomfortable (ie go close to the winning margin which would make other Labor MPs think about doing another leadership spill ie Hawke/Keating 1991) or maybe even topple Andrews as Premier of Victoria?

Jacinta Allen had long been viewed as Dan's successor. Not sure if they would be other challengers able to garner significant support.
Factionalism still plays a big role too

 

[Sinjin Smith]

It is possible to vote for the Andrews government, to support them, hell even be a Labor party member and still be critical of this **** up.

At the time how they thought $2.6 bill would cover the disparate regional hosting model across four locations is mystifying. The cost for infrastructure, logistics/transport, security etc was always going to exceed the original scoped budget Why, only a few weeks back this was never mentioned in the 23-24 state budget is staggering and reeks of incompetence.

The Andrew's government has access to vast internal resources and external consultancy who would constantly update the rising costs of construction and labour and somehow it never was never factored in until this week, well so we are led to believe. The Andrew's government were pitched the idea of relocating some events back to Melbourne to try and alleviate some of the cost blowout but they arrogantly dismissed it. Questions about the estimated $7 bill required, why it is only being released now and how they got it so wrong must be addressed

The right decision has been made however the people of Victoria deserve answers on how this situation has come about. If it wasnt J Allan I'm positive a lesser member with the Comm Games in their portfolio would have to fall on their sword.

For the hyperbole, this wont affect Victoria's ability to host world class sporting events, our current stadiums and facilities are world class, for the short to medium term I am sure global sporting bodies looking to Victoria to host whatever event will have water tight contracts but this fiasco wont have long term effects.

For the Andrew's government similarly they will take a short to medium term hit on their reputation but by the time the next election rolls round I do not think this will be a big factor unless there are more large continual **** ups.

 

[11kgm]

Which Labor MP would be the one most likely to launch a leadership challenge against Daniel Andrews? And how many votes would he/she needed to either make life uncomfortable (ie go close to the winning margin which would make other Labor MPs think about doing another leadership spill ie Hawke/Keating 1991) or maybe even topple Andrews as Premier of Victoria?

Every major enemy of his is gone, or discredited, there is no challenge Dan is doing this till he dies or the liberals focus on mounting an actual challenge

 

[faible]

It is possible to vote for the Andrews government, to support them, hell even be a Labor party member and still be critical of this * up.

Impossible. It's a team sport. All or nothing support.

 

[Hornberger]

Read the post I quoted. The cost blowouts may well have been known months ago, pre-budget.

My question was which comments by Daniel Andrews was misleading. What specific thing did he say nor say that was misleading?

Over the next two months, organisers considered radical changes including dropping one of the four regional hubs – Bendigo, Ballarat, Geelong or Morwell – or some of the sports on offer. Although this would have delivered savings, they weren’t on the scale needed to save the Games.

They identified the cost blow-out in April and May, they spent a a couple of months reviewing the options to bring the cost down, and then made the decision to cancel in July. That is a entirely unremarkable timeline.

 

[Mofra]

My question was which comments by Daniel Andrews was misleading. What specific thing did he say nor say that was misleading?



They identified the cost blow-out in April and May, they spent a a couple of months reviewing the options to bring the cost down, and then made the decision to cancel in July. That is a entirely unremarkable timeline.

I would have thought the president and/or vice president of the games should at least be included in those discussions. As it turns out they had only hours notice. Completely blindsided, and Dan framed this as a last minute decision when it appears there were months of notice of the cost blowout.

Secondly, there was no adjustment on costings to the state budget in either direction.

 

[Kwality]

don’t think any a.b.c current affairs host has attained the figures of faine. he could be irascible and annoying but it was compelling radio. and he went after pollies who deserved it without fear or favour. dodgy businessmen too.

Tried hard to be balanced, did not always succeed though it was obvious when he transgressed. Always enjoyed his banter with Red Symons.

Far easier to listen to than Neil Mitchell.

 

[Wooden Robot]

She's the annointed successor. This could cause in-fighting If Dan tries to hive off the blame to JA.

It's pretty staggering .. I get it when people say the Libs aren't much of an alternative as there isn't a great lot of talent among the ranks at this point, but let's face it, the government itself is seriously bereft of talent.
Allan, who is a train wreck and has the management and economic credentials of a grade one student (actually most grade ones would do a far better of job of managing their crayons and finger paint than this hack), is the only minister Dan trusts enough, misguided as he is, to give air time too.

Ben Carroll - a deer in the headlights and can't even read off a script;
Tim Pallas - lacks the simplest of arithmetic skills and I've seen cactuses with more personality and better communication skills;
Harriet Shing - successfully auditioned for a part in the old Thunderbirds series this week with all her head nodding in the background and won it hands down, beating out Virgil, Scott, John, Gordon and Alan.
Assistant treasurer Pearson - a non event.
When was the last time you heard from Tierney, Horne, Williams, Carbines, Spence, very Bland(thorn), Erdogan, Mary-Anne Thomas, or do you even know who they are???
LOL .. the Minister for Small Buisness Natalie Suleyman. Failed former Mayor of Brimbank council that was put into administration with her at the helm. Calling that council dysfunctional and corrupt back then would actually be two of the nicest words, but yet she was parachuted into parliament as a reward! No wonder small businesses in this state go to the wall quicker than you can off the Comm games.

There is zero talent in the ranks, which is why Dan - besides being totally in love with the sound of his own voice - commands all the air time and has to be the spokesperson for everything.
That and the fact he can trust his own troops to successfully pull off the lie and stick to the deceitful script.
The ALP talent pool is every bit as shallow as the team opposite.

 

[Gralin]

I would have thought the president and/or vice president of the games should at least be included in those discussions. As it turns out they had only hours notice. Completely blindsided, and Dan framed this as a last minute decision when it appears there were months of notice of the cost blowout.

Secondly, there was no adjustment on costings to the state budget in either direction.

sounds like treasury refused to submit it for budget consideration with such a large discrepancy

It was clearly a dead duck from the start but it took them way to long to figure it out and then act

and the need to politically spin it and keep it quiet for so long just ends up making it all worse

there is no way they should have been bidding on the games with two months prep to begin with

everything bar the decision to cancel has been very poorly handled, including the comms itself

but its 100% how Andrews operates and has for years

when he pulls it off it works very well for him, when he doesn't, well a decent opposition or strong faction with Vic Labor could do real damage

so far neither have been able to