Opinion Is father-son access going to heavily dictate the next decade of premiers?

[Caligo]

The only changes I would make to the Father/Son is to make it easier for WA and SA clubs to get access to eligible WAFL and SANFL progenies (say a 150 game threshold instead if the current 200 game minimum)

Got no idea how to fix the NGA system Tbh.

I do firmly support the Suns and Giants having their own academies though, not convinced any other club need them any more tbh.

WAFL and SANFL f/s is basically over already. You need to have played your 150 or 200 games back in the 90s or earlier meaning your kids are almost certainly too old to be drafted today.

I would fix NGA by making eligibility way tighter (you need to be genuinely new to the game) but remove or reduce the pick 40 restrictions.

I agree about the northern academies, especially since they can't have father sons yet. I also really like seeing the game grow here in sydney.

If you just significantly increase the points value of picks 1-5 you fix so many problems. It gets much harder to get a cheap naicos or ashcroft if he costs 4500 points. You can tighten it further by saying only 2 picks can be used in matching.

 

[Elmer_Judd]

WAFL and SANFL f/s is basically over already. You need to have played your 150 or 200 games back in the 90s or earlier meaning your kids are almost certainly too old to be drafted today.

I would fix NGA by making eligibility way tighter (you need to be genuinely new to the game) but remove or reduce the pick 40 restrictions.

I agree about the northern academies, especially since they can't have father sons yet. I also really like seeing the game grow here in sydney.

If you just significantly increase the points value of picks 1-5 you fix so many problems. It gets much harder to get a cheap naicos or ashcroft if he costs 4500 points. You can tighten it further by saying only 2 picks can be used in matching.

I would agree with that.

In an ideal world I would also get rid of F/A compensation but that would just lead to even a bigger gap between the rich/powerful clubs and the battlers/less well off teams.

Sometimes I think a club that is blessed with 4 top 20/first round selections (or more) from their academy should only be allowed to pick 2 of them (maximum) and the others allowed to go to other clubs on an market.


Or at least limit the amount of talented academy selections in the first round a club like the Suns could pick over say a 2 or 3 rolling period.

The whole issue about the points and matching points and bids etc gives me a headache just thinking about it lol

The 'whining' Vic clubs are not allowed to say this publicly, but I am certain many would have loved an opportunity to have a chance to nab some of the Suns academy kids this season.

I think it's the numbet of quality kids the Suns picked up, not the 'price' the Suns paid for them which irks clubs

These days, if any club manages to snare 3 decent 100 plus gamers in any national draft, they would have done very well.

The Suns are practically gifted at least 4 blue ribbon/sure.thing prospects (if there is such a thing) in the first round alone.

I can gladly accept this and live with it for a year or even another 1 or 2, but if Gold Coast continue to get this type of bounty from their academy on a regular basis going forwards, then we really have a major problem.

 

[mpal6]

The only changes I would make to the Father/Son is to make it easier for WA and SA clubs to get access to eligible WAFL and SANFL progenies (say a 150 game threshold instead if the current 200 game minimum)

Got no idea how to fix the NGA system Tbh.

I do firmly support the Suns and Giants having their own academies though, not convinced any other club need them any more tbh.

NGA has a good fix too. If the intent is to bring more talent into bottom clubs to fast track their rebuild, then

Bottom 4 in ladder - you can pre-list your NGA player outside draft. No need to wait for draft and bid match
Bottom half of ladder (9th to 14th) - you can bid match anywhere. No restrictions
Top 8 of ladder - restrictions remain

 

[GC2015]

Aside from Naicos and Ashcroft in recent years, when was the last time a (projected at the time) Father-Son prospect drafted was the best available talent in his draft class (at that time) ?

Even GAJ was a slow burn to begin with

The Father-Son points and bidding doesn't really require much tinkering imo.

If it wasn't for those two players I mentioned, there really wouldn't be calls for it to be changed at all imo.

We've recently seen a significant increase in the amount of F/S prospects being selected early in the draft, which is leading to questions being asked. For example, we've seen seven F/S prospects (2021: #2 Darcy, #4 Daicos 2022: #2 W.Ashcroft, #12 Fletcher, #17 Michalanney 2023: #15 Croft, #19 McCabe) selected in the first round over the last three years alone and draft analysts believe we have another three top 10 F/S picks coming through next year (L.Ashcroft, Welsh, B.Camporeale).

Compare that to the amount of first round F/S picks selected in the 15 years between 2007 when the bidding system was introduced after the Hawkins debacle and 2021 when the significant increase began. You'll find just three F/S prospects (2012: #10 Daniher 2013: #8 McDonald 2014: #9 Moore) were selected in the first round over that period of time. Seven in three years vs three in 15 years would certainly fall under the category of a significant increase in any statisticians' data analysis.

It should also be pointed out that four more F/S prospects (White, Hodge, West & Walker) were named in the U15 & U16 AA teams this year so it looks like this is likely to continue for many years to come.

 

[geelong_crazy26]

That depends on how you want to view the "compromise" of the draft. While it would be true to say more players have been drafted with academy access than those drafted as F/S selections, I assume people out there aren't too worried about pick 50 being matched because the higher priority is clearly the earlier picks as they are the ones most likely to have a significant impact at a club - quality over quantity. Do you view the compromise of academy pick 59 Harvey Thomas on the same level F/S pick 2 Will Ashcroft? If, like me, you take the quality of prospect into account then it's probably more in favour of the F/S rule than you think.

The number of father-son picks taken in the first round over the last three years is 7 and the number of academy picks taken in the first round over the last three years is 6. That gap looks set to widen next year with current draft predictions suggesting F/S picks Levi Ashcroft, Tyler Welsh and Ben Camporeale are all expected to be bid on with top 10 picks. Lucas Camporeale also looks a decent chance to be bid on with a first round pick. There's currently two northern academy prospects (Lombard & Marshall) that look a chance to be bid on in the first round but neither are currently rated inside the top 10.

So I guess the answer to your question is yes and no depending on how you want to view it. Yes they are similar/more advantageous for F/S if we're looking at the high end talent that every team seems desperate to secure and no if we're purely looking at the total amount of picks irrespective of when the prospects are taken in the draft. I used this example in an earlier post - would you rather draft two top 10 picks Nick Daicos and Darcy Moore or draft four third round picks from a northern academy. It's double the amount of players if you go down the academy route but there is a significant difference in quality. I'm taking Daicos/Moore all day. Quality over quantity for mine.

For clarity on this discussion I would have to review all the academy kids drafted and what draft picks they were taken and compare that against father son picks in the same period.

If you have a list you can put together happy to discuss the impact overall on the draft of both. Very hard to discuss just based off a vague 6 vs 7 first rounders.

 

[GC2015]

For clarity on this discussion I would have to review all the academy kids drafted and what draft picks they were taken and compare that against father son picks in the same period.

If you have a list you can put together happy to discuss the impact overall on the draft of both. Very hard to discuss just based off a vague 6 vs 7 first rounders.

2021
Father-son (5) - #2 Sam Darcy, #4 Nick Daicos, #59 Jackson Archer, #60 Jase Burgoyne, #65 Taj Woewodin
Northern Academy (1) - #42 Josh Fahey

2022
Father-son (6) - #2 Will Ashcroft, #12 Jaspa Fletcher, #17 Max Michalanney, #45 Alwyn Davey, #54 Jayden Davey, #56 Cooper Harvey
Northern Academy (1) - #16 Harry Rowston

2023
Father-son (3) - #15 Jordan Croft, #19 Will McCabe, #56 Calsher Dear
Northern Academy (6) - #3 Jed Walter, #9 Ethan Read, #14 Jake Rogers, #24 Caiden Cleary, #26 Will Graham, #59 Harvey Thomas

First Rd picks 2021-23
Father-son - 7 (#2 Ashcroft, #2 Darcy, #4 Daicos, #12 Fletcher, #15 Croft, #17 Michalanney, #19 McCabe)
Northern Academy - 6 (#3 Walter, #9 Read, #14 Rogers, #16 Rowston, #24 Cleary, #26 Graham)

Total ND picks 2021-23
Father-son - 14
Northern Academy - 8

 

[Caligo]

2021
Father-son (5) - #2 Sam Darcy, #4 Nick Daicos, #59 Jackson Archer, #60 Jase Burgoyne, #65 Taj Woewodin
Northern Academy (1) - #42 Josh Fahey

2022
Father-son (6) - #2 Will Ashcroft, #12 Jaspa Fletcher, #17 Max Michalanney, #45 Alwyn Davey, #54 Jayden Davey, #56 Cooper Harvey
Northern Academy (1) - #16 Harry Rowston

2023
Father-son (3) - #15 Jordan Croft, #19 Will McCabe, #56 Calsher Dear
Northern Academy (6) - #3 Jed Walter, #9 Ethan Read, #14 Jake Rogers, #24 Caiden Cleary, #26 Will Graham, #59 Harvey Thomas

First Rd picks 2021-23
Father-son - 7 (#2 Ashcroft, #2 Darcy, #4 Daicos, #12 Fletcher, #15 Croft, #17 Michalanney, #19 McCabe)
Northern Academy - 6 (#3 Walter, #9 Read, #14 Rogers, #16 Rowston, #24 Cleary, #26 Graham)

Total ND picks 2021-23
Father-son - 14
Northern Academy - 8

The next two years will have large numbers of northern academy products (lots of father sons too though). Brisbane figures to benefit to a pretty extreme extent, having a good number of both in the pipeline.

 

[doppleganger]

2021
Father-son (5) - #2 Sam Darcy, #4 Nick Daicos, #59 Jackson Archer, #60 Jase Burgoyne, #65 Taj Woewodin
Northern Academy (1) - #42 Josh Fahey

2022
Father-son (6) - #2 Will Ashcroft, #12 Jaspa Fletcher, #17 Max Michalanney, #45 Alwyn Davey, #54 Jayden Davey, #56 Cooper Harvey
Northern Academy (1) - #16 Harry Rowston

2023
Father-son (3) - #15 Jordan Croft, #19 Will McCabe, #56 Calsher Dear
Northern Academy (6) - #3 Jed Walter, #9 Ethan Read, #14 Jake Rogers, #24 Caiden Cleary, #26 Will Graham, #59 Harvey Thomas

First Rd picks 2021-23
Father-son - 7 (#2 Ashcroft, #2 Darcy, #4 Daicos, #12 Fletcher, #15 Croft, #17 Michalanney, #19 McCabe)
Northern Academy - 6 (#3 Walter, #9 Read, #14 Rogers, #16 Rowston, #24 Cleary, #26 Graham)

Total ND picks 2021-23
Father-son - 14
Northern Academy - 8

F/S picks are spread across 16 of the 18 teams. Northern academy are just 4 clubs.

7 first round F/S spread across 16 clubs, v 6 first round NA kids shared between just 4 clubs.

NA much more impactful.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

F/S picks are spread across 16 of the 18 teams. Northern academy are just 4 clubs.

7 first round F/S spread across 16 clubs, v 6 first round NA kids shared between just 4 clubs.

NA much more impactful.

I would say last season the Daicos brothers were most impactful.

 

[doppleganger]

I would say last season the Daicos brothers were most impactful.

Cant be, bigfooty experts think Nick cant win a contested ball and Josh is just a vanilla mid with no size or tricks.

 

[mpal6]

The next two years will have large numbers of northern academy products (lots of father sons too though). Brisbane figures to benefit to a pretty extreme extent, having a good number of both in the pipeline.

Brisbane benefitting from father son first rounders is an anamoly in my view. Ashcroft x2 and Fletcher are father son unicorns for us after nearly a 20 year wait.

Brisbane building our list through second round and later academy picks are more realistic outcome that usually happens. I'd prefer that outcome as every QLDer that enters our list means one less interstater that the club is taking which is more sustainable long term. AFLW is exactly built this way with more QAFLW players and looks good long term for the club.

If past is any guide, academy identified kids have been largely underwhelming as they get closer to draft year. Even in the draft that went by we had 2 talls - Billy Richardson and Bradley McDonald. Tall KPDs with some potential in U15 U16 but went undrafted. It's usually the ones who are willing to persist after missing the draft, and the ones whom the club is willing to continue backing in spite of injuries etc have turned out to be fruitful for us overall. Coleman, Payne, Reville etc.

Even in above list, father sons are high class talents with potential from the word go and academy have been slow burn which may click after a few years.

 

[Caligo]

Brisbane benefitting from father son first rounders is an anamoly in my view. Ashcroft x2 and Fletcher are father son unicorns for us after nearly a 20 year wait.

Brisbane building our list through second round and later academy picks are more realistic outcome that usually happens. I'd prefer that outcome as every QLDer that enters our list means one less interstater that the club is taking which is more sustainable long term. AFLW is exactly built this way with more QAFLW players and looks good long term for the club.

If past is any guide, academy identified kids have been largely underwhelming as they get closer to draft year. Even in the draft that went by we had 2 talls - Billy Richardson and Bradley McDonald. Tall KPDs with some potential in U15 U16 but went undrafted. It's usually the ones who are willing to persist after missing the draft, and the ones whom the club is willing to continue backing in spite of injuries etc have turned out to be fruitful for us overall. Coleman, Payne, Reville etc.

Even in above list, father sons are high class talents with potential from the word go and academy have been slow burn which may click after a few years.

You have another few unicorns coming. Time to fix it. Now.

 

[geelong_crazy26]

2021
Father-son (5) - #2 Sam Darcy, #4 Nick Daicos, #59 Jackson Archer, #60 Jase Burgoyne, #65 Taj Woewodin
Northern Academy (1) - #42 Josh Fahey

2022
Father-son (6) - #2 Will Ashcroft, #12 Jaspa Fletcher, #17 Max Michalanney, #45 Alwyn Davey, #54 Jayden Davey, #56 Cooper Harvey
Northern Academy (1) - #16 Harry Rowston

2023
Father-son (3) - #15 Jordan Croft, #19 Will McCabe, #56 Calsher Dear
Northern Academy (6) - #3 Jed Walter, #9 Ethan Read, #14 Jake Rogers, #24 Caiden Cleary, #26 Will Graham, #59 Harvey Thomas

First Rd picks 2021-23
Father-son - 7 (#2 Ashcroft, #2 Darcy, #4 Daicos, #12 Fletcher, #15 Croft, #17 Michalanney, #19 McCabe)
Northern Academy - 6 (#3 Walter, #9 Read, #14 Rogers, #16 Rowston, #24 Cleary, #26 Graham)

Total ND picks 2021-23
Father-son - 14
Northern Academy - 8

Good job putting that together, but why so selective with your period?? Why not compare since the academies have been introduced. Otherwise it just looks like number fudging

 

[Caligo]

Good job putting that together, but why so selective with your period?? Why not compare since the academies have been introduced. Otherwise it just looks like number fudging

Probably the sheer amount of work involved.

 

[geelong_crazy26]

Where did I claim it was about equality of outcomes?

Do you think Gold Coast have had equal opportunities to make finals since they came into the AFL?

They certainly don't have the ability to attract ready made players like Geelong... so wouldn't it then make sense to give them 1st access to local players so they can improve their retention rate?

You said we should reassess concessions if Gold Coast has a period of success… that is equality our outcomes in a nutshell that sort of thinking

 

[geelong_crazy26]

Probably the sheer amount of work involved.

Fair enough.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

You said we should reassess concessions if Gold Coast has a period of success… that is equality our outcomes in a nutshell that sort of thinking

Because imo you are jumping at shadows!

Geelong have the ability to attract out of contract players back... whilst the Suns have a poor retention rate.

Allowing them 1st access to local players improves their retention rate & evens the playing field.

 

[geelong_crazy26]

Because imo you are jumping at shadows!

Geelong have the ability to attract out of contract players back... whilst the Suns have a poor retention rate.

Allowing them 1st access to local players improves their retention rate & evens the playing field.

Have you ever considered it a management and poor culture problem at GCS?? Concessions just encourage mediocrity and dependence on unsustainable methods long term.

GCS do have an equal playing field, they actually have an advantage with the same draft access plus additional academy access others don’t have.

That is clearly an uneven playing field in their favor for equality of opportunity.

Outcomes are irrelevant

 

[Caligo]

Have you ever considered it a management and poor culture problem at GCS?? Concessions just encourage mediocrity and dependence on unsustainable methods long term.

GCS do have an equal playing field, they actually have an advantage with the same draft access plus additional academy access others don’t have.

That is clearly an uneven playing field in their favor for equality of opportunity.

Outcomes are irrelevant

How many AFL players are from QLD and how many are from Vic? You can call it a level playing field all you like. It isn't one. It won't be for at least 50 years, when the top ranked team can actually have a home grand final.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Have you ever considered it a management and poor culture problem at GCS?? Concessions just encourage mediocrity and dependence on unsustainable methods long term.

GCS do have an equal playing field, they actually have an advantage with the same draft access plus additional academy access others don’t have.

That is clearly an uneven playing field in their favor for equality of opportunity.

Outcomes are irrelevant

So you are now claiming there is no go home factor amongst AFL players.

Interesting...

 

[Caligo]

So you are now claiming there is no go home factor amongst AFL players.

Interesting...

At this point I don't even think he believes what he is saying. He read about equality of outcomes vs equality of opportunity in libertarian vogue and wants to spout off.

 

[STPer18]

Gee whiz. Hard to believe that's the same Nathan Ablett that played for the Suns five years later and showed next to nothing at the top level in his two appearances during what should have been his physical prime at 26 years of age. Been fortunate enough to spend a bit of time with Nath while he was up here and I never got the impression he was overly passionate about footy. In fact, he always seemed far more interested in basketball. Classic example of a guy that had all the talent, physical attributes and athleticism you could hope to be blessed with but just didn't want it anywhere near as much his peers in the AFL. Weirdly I think he's completely content with his four years in the AFL which included 34 games and a premiership medallion. When he left Geelong and moved to the Gold Coast in 2009, I don't think he had any intention of returning to the top level but things just kind of fell into place with his brother Gary and Nath gave it a go for a year.

No doubt some will forever view Nathan Ablett as a talent that was lost to the game but you can't force a guy to want it. He has to want it himself and Nathan clearly didn't so it wouldn't have mattered what anyone did. FWIW he's been playing some local reserves footy on the Gold Coast over the last few years and I think that's more suited to his preferred pace of life.

A different cat in every sense of the word.

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/teams/geelong/steve-johnson-tells-hilarious-story-about-former-teammate-nathan-ablett/news-story/d65f468cb98c2ba0d4cf62d35f304039

PLENTY of hilarious stories have been told about retiring star Steve Johnson, but the former Cat’s story about Nathan Ablett might just take the cake.

During the pair’s tenure together at Geelong, Johnson says Ablett once went missing at halftime of a game down at then-Skilled Stadium.

“Nathan was starting the third quarter on the bench, but when someone called his name to go onto the ground, we couldn’t find him,” Johnson said on Seven’s AFL Game Day this morning.

“Everyone’s looking around: ‘Where’s Nath’.

“Someone ran back inside, Nathan was inside, on the couch, in the players room, watching the game on TV... eating grapes.

“It’s true!”

Johnson says his eccentric ex-teammate has “the best stories”.

“We could go on for an hour and a half,” he said.

Ablett had another disappearing act earlier this year, during the Cats’ 2007 premiership reunion, as reported by the Herald Sun’s The Score.

A relaxed and happy Ablett took part in the pre-game motorcade, sitting next to Paul Chapman who then interviewed him for K-Rock radio — something that never would have happened a decade ago.

Ablett then headed upstairs to the function where he was mingling with the rest of the 2007 heroes before receiving a call on his phone — an original old-school flip top.

He then disappeared for an hour or so before returning to catch the second half of the Cats’ game against Port Adelaide.

So, where did he go?

To play basketball, of course. The call was from a mate whose team was short. It was playing down the road in South Geelong, so he wondered if Ablett was keen to shoot some hoops.

 

[STPer18]

A different cat in every sense of the word.

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/teams/geelong/steve-johnson-tells-hilarious-story-about-former-teammate-nathan-ablett/news-story/d65f468cb98c2ba0d4cf62d35f304039

 

[mpal6]

You have another few unicorns coming. Time to fix it. Now.

Father sons? Highly doubt it.

 

[geelong_crazy26]

So you are now claiming there is no go home factor amongst AFL players.

Interesting...

How many players did GWS lose this offseason?? How many do you think they will lose the next few off seasons??

How many players does Sydney lose to go home factors?? They are one of the leagues finest player poachers.

How many does WCE lose??

Seems like whenever players want out of a club for a host of reasons, we just use the label equality and start tossing around concession ideas.

You get the same playing field as everyone else, and if you stuff it up like having poor cultures and management or coaches that make players want to walk out of your club, then you shouldn’t be rewarded for incompetency