Who'll be the next club to fall off their cliff?

[Lach72]

Collingwood and Port…hopefully…further the better

 

[VinnieB]

De goey tore the finals apart
Daicos went close to a brownlow in year 2 after missing 4 games
His brother was one of the premier wingers in the comp
Bobby Hill kicked 5 in a GF and now has a quality partner in crime in schultz
Moore is a gun captain and defender (second only to Taylor in the comp)

Pendles is consistently class but reliant is a ridiculous statement

The great thing about having a leader like Pendles in your team is that he acts as an on-field coach. You can see how that leadership has been transferred to other players like Nick Daicos. The jokers just don't seem to get that.

Take a look at centre bounce clearances v attendances and you'll find where Penles rated in 2023 in the Collingwood team. BUt yeah, we are so reliant on him....

Anyway, DeGoey averaged almost 30% more Centre Bounce Attendances than Pendlebury in 2023.
And Pendles ranked 7th at Collingwood for Centre Clearances per Centre Bounce Attendance. Again, I doubt the time Pendles spends in the centre is actually a meaningful stat to determine the team's reliance on him attending the centre bounce.

I'm sure most with an education could interpret the data.....

 

[Great8]

Essendon are ahead of the curve.
Can’t fall off the cliff if you don’t scale the mountain. Much easier to stay at base camp

 

[PowerfulPies2023]

Fremantle's Cliff Fell before it grew.

Freo-falled I mean free falled.

 

[adammania9]

It is a bit surprising how reliant they are on a 36 year old.

It's surprisingly effective to keep your older midfielders around to lead the next batch to success. Had we gone the Hawthorn route when Pendles was 32/33, we'd likely be wallowing in the bottom four as well.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

It's surprisingly effective to keep your older midfielders around to lead the next batch to success. Had we gone the Hawthorn route when Pendles was 32/33, we'd likely be wallowing in the bottom four as well.

It’s going to be hard to replace him.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

It’s going to be hard to replace him.

Its difficult to replace any gun player.... but surely you are better off playing them to their end of their career... & having them teach younger players around them.

You can see Pendlebury organising his team on field like another coach... & no doubt he has been important in the Pies winning close games.

Selwood used to for the Cats with great success.

Dawson has begun doing for the Crows.

Who is doing this for the Hawks, given you traded out all your experienced midfielders?

 

[Muddiemoose]

Its difficult to replace any gun player.... but surely you are better off playing them to their end of their career... & having them teach younger players around them.

You can see Pendlebury organising his team on field like another coach... & no doubt he has been important in the Pies winning close games.

Selwood used to for the Cats with great success.

Dawson has begun doing for the Crows.

Who is doing this for the Hawks, given you traded out all your experienced midfielders?

Not sure what the point is you are trying to make
This thread isn’t about the Hawks I’m sure Hawks fans are under no illusions about where the list sits of their team

The thread is about the next club to fall off the cliff and some of us think Collingwood because they have so much of their current best 22 locked into older players who will be retiring over the next season or two

Everyone knows Pendles is a gun and aren’t arguing the Pies shouldn’t play him
It’s more about looking at the pies list they lack the young talent to replace these older vets who are absolutely essential to how the pies currently play and due to their age the time the pies have at the top is limited compared to a team like Carlton who have just entered their window

 

[BIGHAWK23]

Its difficult to replace any gun player.... but surely you are better off playing them to their end of their career... & having them teach younger players around them.

You can see Pendlebury organising his team on field like another coach... & no doubt he has been important in the Pies winning close games.

Selwood used to for the Cats with great success.

Dawson has begun doing for the Crows.

Who is doing this for the Hawks, given you traded out all your experienced midfielders?

Coach being one of the best modern midfielders of all time helps

And our midfield performed better than the 3 teams mentioned above (ranked 3rd Centre clearances last year)

Our midfield aint the issue

And this aint the thread for it

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Not sure what the point is you are trying to make
This thread isn’t about the Hawks I’m sure Hawks fans are under no illusions about where the list sits of their team

The thread is about the next club to fall off the cliff and some of us think Collingwood because they have so much of their current best 22 locked into older players who will be retiring over the next season or two

Everyone knows Pendles is a gun and aren’t arguing the Pies shouldn’t play him
It’s more about looking at the pies list they lack the young talent to replace these older vets who are absolutely essential to how the pies currently play and due to their age the time the pies have at the top is limited compared to a team like Carlton who have just entered their window

Exactly. We're talking about replacing a player that most Pies have as one of their best ever.

Collingwood are the oldest list in the comp and have 1 player under 28 from the top 10 in the draft on their list. If we push it out to Top 15, they have 2.
We all know Nick Daicos is a supreme talent, but he's going to need more help to fill the void left by the older heads as they leave or decline.

Geelong, who are second oldest, have 2 under 28 from the top 10, but 4 from the Top 15.
Melbourne 3rd oldest list. 3 top 10 picks under 28, and 6 top 15.

I won't go too deep on Brisbane, because they're likely to have 3 number 1 picks on their list by the end of 2024.

Looking at Carlton, they're 6th oldest, 6 top 10 picks under 28 and 9 top 15 picks.

Other Collingwood posters have already conceded that their list manager has a bit of work to do in the next 1-2 years to replace Pendlebury, Cox, Sidebottom, Elliot, Howe Mitchell, Mihocek etc.

It's really not that surprising of a take to say "old players need to be replaced with quality, or you'll dip down".

 

[citizen-erased]

As is saying that they didn’t rely on someone who took the second most CBA’s of all players on their list.

midfielder attends CBAs.
im shocked

The great thing about having a leader like Pendles in your team is that he acts as an on-field coach. You can see how that leadership has been transferred to other players like Nick Daicos. The jokers just don't seem to get that.

Take a look at centre bounce clearances v attendances and you'll find where Penles rated in 2023 in the Collingwood team. BUt yeah, we are so reliant on him....

Anyway, DeGoey averaged almost 30% more Centre Bounce Attendances than Pendlebury in 2023.
And Pendles ranked 7th at Collingwood for Centre Clearances per Centre Bounce Attendance. Again, I doubt the time Pendles spends in the centre is actually a meaningful stat to determine the team's reliance on him attending the centre bounce.

I'm sure most with an education could interpret the data.....

there isn't value playing him elsewhere as he's still a gun doing what he does.
Just because he's the square peg in the square hole, doesn't mean you're reliant on him.

Also, how many wins were from CB dominance, v just having a better system across the field than everyone else.

 

[citizen-erased]

Essendon are ahead of the curve.
Can’t fall off the cliff if you don’t scale the mountain. Much easier to stay at base camp

then we trip and fall in the hole being used as the communal dunny see Rd.23 and 24 last year

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

36yr midfielder attends 2nd most CBAs.
im shocked

FTFY.

Show me another side that has their oldest player, a player well into the twilight of their career attending the 2nd most CBA's for the year and I'll say the exact same thing.....they're going to need to find a replacement for them or else they'll dip down the ladder.

 

[Muddiemoose]

Exactly. We're talking about replacing a player that most Pies have as one of their best ever.

Collingwood are the oldest list in the comp and have 1 player under 28 from the top 10 in the draft on their list. If we push it out to Top 15, they have 2.
We all know Nick Daicos is a supreme talent, but he's going to need more help to fill the void left by the older heads as they leave or decline.

Geelong, who are second oldest, have 2 under 28 from the top 10, but 4 from the Top 15.
Melbourne 3rd oldest list. 3 top 10 picks under 28, and 6 top 15.

I won't go too deep on Brisbane, because they're likely to have 3 number 1 picks on their list by the end of 2024.

Looking at Carlton, they're 6th oldest, 6 top 10 picks under 28 and 9 top 15 picks.

Other Collingwood posters have already conceded that their list manager has a bit of work to do in the next 1-2 years to replace Pendlebury, Cox, Sidebottom, Elliot, Howe Mitchell, Mihocek etc.

It's really not that surprising of a take to say "old players need to be replaced with quality, or you'll dip down".

It’s the exact reason why the greater football community have Richmond falling further this year

In terms of the best 22 all Richmond have lost this year is Cotch and Jack but a lot have us doing worse this year than last year

Because we are replacing club greats with unknown kids and that is despite Richmond getting Lynch back who played 4 games last year and still a relatively talented core (Dusty, Balta, Bolton, Taranto, Vlaustin, Rolli, Nank, Broad, Prestia, Baker, Short) with quite a few able to produce all Australian level footy in that list but due to our lack of depth injury’s will easily determine our season

 

[VinnieB]

Exactly. We're talking about replacing a player that most Pies have as one of their best ever.

Collingwood are the oldest list in the comp and have 1 player under 28 from the top 10 in the draft on their list. If we push it out to Top 15, they have 2.
We all know Nick Daicos is a supreme talent, but he's going to need more help to fill the void left by the older heads as they leave or decline.

Geelong, who are second oldest, have 2 under 28 from the top 10, but 4 from the Top 15.
Melbourne 3rd oldest list. 3 top 10 picks under 28, and 6 top 15.

I won't go too deep on Brisbane, because they're likely to have 3 number 1 picks on their list by the end of 2024.

Looking at Carlton, they're 6th oldest, 6 top 10 picks under 28 and 9 top 15 picks.

Other Collingwood posters have already conceded that their list manager has a bit of work to do in the next 1-2 years to replace Pendlebury, Cox, Sidebottom, Elliot, Howe Mitchell, Mihocek etc.

It's really not that surprising of a take to say "old players need to be replaced with quality, or you'll dip down".

Jordon Degoey is 27.
Darcy Moore turned 28 last week.

So, we had 3 top 10 picks beginning of 2024.

You also went on to say Richmond had players if certain drafts were re-done, they would be top 15 picks.
Well, as I pointed out, Quaynor (pick 13) would be a top 10 pick in his draft.
Josh Daicos would also be a top 10 pick in his draft.

So, again, you are being very selective and contradicting your points in order to continue on your crusade.

 

[BIGHAWK23]

Jordon Degoey is 27.
Darcy Moore turned 28 last week.

So, we had 3 top 10 picks beginning of 2024.

You also went on to say Richmond had players if certain drafts were re-done, they would be top 15 picks.
Well, as I pointed out, Quaynor (pick 13) would be a top 10 pick in his draft.
Josh Daicos would also be a top 10 pick in his draft.

So, again, you are being very selective and contradicting your points in order to continue on your crusade.

I think a reasonable question is

-Do the pies have someone to cover Pendlebury when he goes? When in likely hood its potentially end of next year
Its a big player to replace, especially when you are losing Howe/Sidebottom at a similar time

But its 3 players, i don't see it being a cliff fall, even a fall, maybe just a moving back into the pack

 

[VinnieB]

FTFY.

Show me another side that has their oldest player, a player well into the twilight of their career attending the 2nd most CBA's for the year and I'll say the exact same thing.....they're going to need to find a replacement for them or else they'll dip down the ladder.

Nick Daicos will have more CBAs as a start. He attended 42% (and cleared 30% more than Pendlebury) v Pendlebury's 65%.
Crisp only attended 28% and he has another 3 years left in him...maybe more given he doesn't get injured.

As I pointed out, if Pendlebury was one of our top 2 clearance players for the time he attends the centre bounce, then it is something to look at. But he isn't. In fact, him being there is probably a reason why our numbers are lower.
But his role is more of a 'teacher' in there which will put the team in a far stronger position when he is gone.

Keep clutching...

 

[Muddiemoose]

Nick Daicos will have more CBAs as a start. He attended 42% (and cleared 30% more than Pendlebury) v Pendlebury's 65%.
Crisp only attended 28% and he has another 3 years left in him...maybe more given he doesn't get injured.

As I pointed out, if Pendlebury was one of our top 2 clearance players for the time he attends the centre bounce, then it is something to look at. But he isn't. In fact, him being there is probably a reason why our numbers are lower.
But his role is more of a 'teacher' in there which will put the team in a far stronger position when he is gone.

Keep clutching...

I think the thing you are failing to grasp that in terms of the 22 Daicos isn’t replacing anyone since he is already established in the 22

If he picks up more midfield time someone needs to pick up his outside minutes, and whoever that is isn’t going to have the same output

He’s been in the side for two years but as players retire you need to bring in new players into the mix and they are are dramatic drop in experience and quality

Degoey and Daicos won’t be able to carry your entire side if you lack the players around them across the entire field

You talk about Pendles not being in your top 2 clearance players but he is in your top 3… who are the other guys Degoey, fair enough will be around for a while yet but who is the other?
Tom Mitchell who is also now in his 30’s

How did the suns go when they had Ablett at the absolute peak of his powers but not enough experience around him to complement?

 

[Tarkyn_24]

I think a reasonable question is

-Do the pies have someone to cover Pendlebury when he goes? When in likely hood its potentially end of next year
Its a big player to replace, especially when you are losing Howe/Sidebottom at a similar time

But its 3 players, i don't see it being a cliff fall, even a fall, maybe just a moving back into the pack

The same Jeremy Howe that missed half a season with a broken arm last year?

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

It’s the exact reason why the greater football community have Richmond falling further this year

In terms of the best 22 all Richmond have lost this year is Cotch and Jack but a lot have us doing worse this year than last year

Because we are replacing club greats with unknown kids and that is despite Richmond getting Lynch back who played 4 games last year and still a relatively talented core (Dusty, Balta, Bolton, Taranto, Vlaustin, Rolli, Nank, Broad, Prestia, Baker, Short) with quite a few able to produce all Australian level footy in that list but due to our lack of depth injury’s will easily determine our season

Hawks tried it with JOM and Tom, then missed on Lynch and Coniglio, and had no replacement for Rioli pulling the pin early or Roughead being cactus post-cancer treatment.

Collingwood might be able to cover the gaps with trades or later picks as players drop off, but plenty of better sides have tried to do that before and it’s a bit of a cautionary tale in most cases.

 

[VinnieB]

I think the thing you are failing to grasp that in terms of the 22 Daicos isn’t replacing anyone since he is already established in the 22

If he picks up more midfield time someone needs to pick up his outside minutes, and whoever that is isn’t going to have the same output

He’s been in the side for two years but as players retire you need to bring in new players into the mix and they are are dramatic drop in experience and quality

Degoey and Daicos won’t be able to carry your entire side if you lack the players around them across the entire field

You talk about Pendles not being in your top 2 clearance players but he is in your top 3… who are the other guys Degoey, fair enough will be around for a while yet but who is the other?
Tom Mitchell who is also now in his 30’s

How did the suns go when they had Ablett at the absolute peak of his powers but not enough experience around him to complement?

No. When you look at the % of clearances per centre bounce attendance, he ranks about 5th or 6th excluding the ruckman.

Daicos was eased into the midfield this season. He is only going to spend more time there.

Pendles strength is his leadership. He averages about 20 disposals a game. He is nothing like he was 3 or 4 years ago. He gets caught more often than he ever has. He has slowed considerably. He isn’t like a Dustin Martin today who continues play as your best player in conversations even as a Brownlow medallist.

His value is telling players where to stand around the ball. That education gets passed on.

Looking at our GF team in 2018, Howe, Sidebottom and Pendlebury are the oldest who probably have 1 or 2 years left in them. They have been well past their best from 5 years ago. Yet, the team was able to win a premiership. That came from the younger players and the 23-28 yr olds.

Howe has hardly played football because of injury, yet you guys think we won’t be able to replace him. I’d be surprised if he goes on next season, and to be honest, it won’t be difficult to fill his role.

In any case, the club has said the next group of kids will be getting more game time. We have 2 drafts of 1st and 2nd round picks who will get opportunities.

On top of that MaCrae and McInness will also play more football.

Unfortunately, when you win a premiership, it’s difficult to get the kids who are coming up to take midfield spots.

Now we have won it, the club will be much more relaxed.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Not sure what the point is you are trying to make
This thread isn’t about the Hawks I’m sure Hawks fans are under no illusions about where the list sits of their team

The thread is about the next club to fall off the cliff and some of us think Collingwood because they have so much of their current best 22 locked into older players who will be retiring over the next season or two

Everyone knows Pendles is a gun and aren’t arguing the Pies shouldn’t play him
It’s more about looking at the pies list they lack the young talent to replace these older vets who are absolutely essential to how the pies currently play and due to their age the time the pies have at the top is limited compared to a team like Carlton who have just entered their window

How many Pies are retiring over the next season or 2? Probably Pendlebury, Seedsman & Howe.

What's relevant is what current players are being developed to step up & who they have on their list to come into their 23.

Pies have a decent game plan / system, which showed they are capable of covering unavailable players to win a flag. They won a flag with Billy coming in as a key forward, when he hadn't played that role most of the year.

Can't see Pies falling out finals action anytime soon.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

I think the thing you are failing to grasp that in terms of the 22 Daicos isn’t replacing anyone since he is already established in the 22

If he picks up more midfield time someone needs to pick up his outside minutes, and whoever that is isn’t going to have the same output

He’s been in the side for two years but as players retire you need to bring in new players into the mix and they are are dramatic drop in experience and quality

Degoey and Daicos won’t be able to carry your entire side if you lack the players around them across the entire field

You talk about Pendles not being in your top 2 clearance players but he is in your top 3… who are the other guys Degoey, fair enough will be around for a while yet but who is the other?
Tom Mitchell who is also now in his 30’s

How did the suns go when they had Ablett at the absolute peak of his powers but not enough experience around him to complement?

I get the feeling you are failing to grasp that when sides lose a gun player, other players in the side then often play a different role & don't usually leave it up to the newbie to play the role of the gun they are replacing... because it's about the system.

Pies have plenty of players who play midfield & forward, so easy to increase their midfield % to replace someone like Pendles & bring in a new player who plays mainly as a forward.

 

[Muddiemoose]

How many Pies are retiring over the next season or 2? Probably Pendlebury, Seedsman & Howe.

What's relevant is what current players are being developed to step up & who they have on their list to come into their 23.

Pies have a decent game plan / system, which showed they are capable of covering unavailable players to win a flag. They won a flag with Billy coming in as a key forward, when he hadn't played that role most of the year.

Can't see Pies falling out finals action anytime soon.

So Richmond will be fine with only 2 (Riewoldt and Cotch)
retiring
you know because we have players developing and ready to step up into the 23 and got unlucky with key injury’s mainly Lynch and Nank

Lynch only played 4 games so with him back in action especially we will be able to bounce back to 2022 form and play finals?

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

So Richmond will be fine with only 2 (Riewoldt and Cotch)
retiring
you know because we have players developing and ready to step up into the 23 and got unlucky with key injury’s mainly Lynch and Nank

Lynch only played 4 games so with him back in action especially we will be able to bounce back to 2022 form and play finals?

Richmond list profile is different to the Pies & your coach is unproven, so this is a huge unknown factor... & the biggest factor on where Tigers place this season.