Who'll be the next club to fall off their cliff?

[Cursedsword02]

Let's get this sort of topic up and running, shall we? I personally think Geelong missing finals this year wasn't an anomaly and will be a sign of things to come.

And before anyone asks, Richmond has already fallen off their cliff this year imo and that's why they don't have a poll choice of their own.

 

[Stottzy]

Well, after news of Bailey Smith

6

Bailey Smith

Age

23

Ht

185cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.3

5star

K

8.5

3star

HB

9.8

5star

M

2.3

2star

T

3.8

5star

CL

2.7

4star

D

19.8

5star

K

9.6

4star

HB

10.2

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

3.2

4star

CL

3.2

4star

D

14.8

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

7.2

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

3.4

5star

CL

1.6

4star

doing a ACL, I'd say it will be a slog for the Bulldogs.

 

[00Stinger]

Well, after news of Bailey Smith doing a ACL, I'd say it will be a slog for the Bulldogs.

Now if only Treloar did one the Bulldogs would get rid off 20-30 unnecessary turnovers a game and be much better

 

[Hamingja]

Sydney are the least likely to fall off the cliff. Well run to begin with and then have a steady stream of academy players to keep them up.

 

[The Nostradamus]

Melbourne
Clarry fiasco will make another appearance to distract the joint

 

[RedV3x]

West Tigers and Glory are already gone.

 

[WatWouldCyrilDo]

Geelong. And oh won't it be glorious.

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

Hawks still have a fair way to fall. It's going to get ugly.

 

[smasha]

Let's get this sort of topic up and running, shall we? I personally think Geelong missing finals this year wasn't an anomaly and will be a sign of things to come.

And before anyone asks, Richmond has already fallen off their cliff this year imo and that's why they don't have a poll choice of their own.

600 frees less and a raft of rule changes by the CFL will do that.

 

[Cyclops]

Us. [Reverse mozz initiated].

Politics can wreck a club, if the Hawks can't settle things it could go even worse.

 

[bradfisher14]

In order to fall off a cliff, you need to have been a contender in the previous season, surely? That disqualifies the likes of the Dogs, Swans, and Cats. Dees I think will be a top 4 contender for a while yet.

Which leads me to who I believe the obvious answer is ...

TRIGGER WARNING, it's Collingwood.

First of all, they fit the criteria of being "on" the cliff. Secondly, I think their list fits the bill. And before you main board Pies losers boo and hiss at me, I'm not trying to bait you. Consider my assessment of your list and debate it on its merits if you so desire.

• Pendlebury carried them in the Grand Final.
• Howe is a general down back.
• Crisp gives high level speed, run, ball use, and versatility.
• Sidebottom is perennially underrated and provides a lot of leadership.
• Elliott does Elliott things.
• Hoskin-Elliott is a solid citizen who provides experience and versatility across a number of positions.
• Mihocek straightens them up and kicks goals consistently.
• McStay, their most used forward target, has just done an ACL and will be 30 by his next finals campaign.
• Cox gives them honest ruck minutes and marking around the ground.
• Mitchell gives them the inside grunt work they were crying out for.

That's 10 very important players from their premiership winning side that are all getting toward the end of their careers. I'm not even counting Adams as a loss, the cloud that hangs over Murphy's future, or the guys on the list who will be 29 next year.

While they have a few players that look like being stars in their positions for the next 5+ years, I simply don't see enough quality youth coming through the ranks to replace the above group. Happy for people to debate me on this as I definitely don't watch as much Pies VFL as other posters on here might. I genuinely believe that this core of senior players that will age out soon is so high in quality that it will be too difficult to replace in a short amount of time.

Now, if you'll excuse me, I'm going into my doomsday bunker before Fadge reads this post.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Let's get this sort of topic up and running, shall we? I personally think Geelong missing finals this year wasn't an anomaly and will be a sign of things to come.

And before anyone asks, Richmond has already fallen off their cliff this year imo and that's why they don't have a poll choice of their own.

You know your club was riding high when going 24w-22l over the last 2 seasons, including losing an interstate away final by 2 points constitutes having fallen off a cliff.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Dees most likely.

Cats already did last season.

Bulldogs also already missed finals.

 

[RUNVS]

Isn't Geelong mid-fall already? They went from premiers to finishing 12th in a year, and there is every reason to believe it is only going to get worse over the next few years given how many older players they have in their best 22.

 

[Danw0w]

Neither Geelong or Richmond have "fallen off the cliff".

 

[PhatBoy]

Geelong. And oh won't it be glorious.

The fact that it was supposed to happen 13 seasons ago and we won a flag two seasons ago means most of us couldn’t give a f**k, and the whole point of taking delight in seeing a team you despise struggling is seeing their fans gnashing their teeth. So good luck with that if it somehow actually does happen.

 

[Elmer_Judd]

Swans are an interesting one. Buddy has retired and if the rumours are true Logan McDonald intends to return home to WA at the end of next year, it's going to be a struggle to see where their goals will come from.

I think The Dogs will struggle in 2024, sack Bevo and will bounce back in 2025 with a new coach and Bailey Smith

6

Bailey Smith

Age

23

Ht

185cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.3

5star

K

8.5

3star

HB

9.8

5star

M

2.3

2star

T

3.8

5star

CL

2.7

4star

D

19.8

5star

K

9.6

4star

HB

10.2

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

3.2

4star

CL

3.2

4star

D

14.8

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

7.2

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

3.4

5star

CL

1.6

4star

back.

It just feels like a 'gap' year for The Dogs next season.

 

[RUNVS]

Swans are an interesting one. Buddy has retired and if the rumours are true Logan McDonald intends to return home to WA at the end of next year, it's going to be a struggle to see where their goals will come from.

I think The Dogs will struggle in 2024, sack Bevo and will bounce back in 2025 with a new coach and Bailey Smith back.

It just feels like a 'gap' year for The Dogs next season.

Buddy wasn't that great in 2023 and we still managed to kick goals. Also we still are in with a very good shot of keeping McDonald.

 

[Mr Meow]

Isn't Geelong mid-fall already? They went from premiers to finishing 12th in a year, and there is every reason to believe it is only going to get worse over the next few years given how many older players they have in their best 22.

Yeah a pretty similar list position to 2013-2016 when Johnson, Chapman, Enright, Lonergan, Mackie and Bartel were on the way out to follow Scarlett, Milburn, Mooney, Corey, Ling and Ottens the couple of years prior.

In 2015 they sent a few players off and missed finals, then spent the next few seasons in the bottom 4.

Well, almost all of that is true.

 

[adammania9]

In order to fall off a cliff, you need to have been a contender in the previous season, surely? That disqualifies the likes of the Dogs, Swans, and Cats. Dees I think will be a top 4 contender for a while yet.

Which leads me to who I believe the obvious answer is ...

TRIGGER WARNING, it's Collingwood.

First of all, they fit the criteria of being "on" the cliff. Secondly, I think their list fits the bill. And before you main board Pies losers boo and hiss at me, I'm not trying to bait you. Consider my assessment of your list and debate it on its merits if you so desire.

• Pendlebury carried them in the Grand Final.
• Howe is a general down back.
• Crisp gives high level speed, run, ball use, and versatility.
• Sidebottom is perennially underrated and provides a lot of leadership.
• Elliott does Elliott things.
• Hoskin-Elliott is a solid citizen who provides experience and versatility across a number of positions.
• Mihocek straightens them up and kicks goals consistently.
• McStay, their most used forward target, has just done an ACL and will be 30 by his next finals campaign.
• Cox gives them honest ruck minutes and marking around the ground.
• Mitchell gives them the inside grunt work they were crying out for.

That's 10 very important players from their premiership winning side that are all getting toward the end of their careers. I'm not even counting Adams as a loss, the cloud that hangs over Murphy's future, or the guys on the list who will be 29 next year.

While they have a few players that look like being stars in their positions for the next 5+ years, I simply don't see enough quality youth coming through the ranks to replace the above group. Happy for people to debate me on this as I definitely don't watch as much Pies VFL as other posters on here might. I genuinely believe that this core of senior players that will age out soon is so high in quality that it will be too difficult to replace in a short amount of time.

Now, if you'll excuse me, I'm going into my doomsday bunker before Fadge reads this post.

Much like 2020-21 when the Pies were in freefall and set to undergo indefinite non-finals participation, the Pies will be fine. Elite coach and top line players in their prime will keep them in stead. They are never down for long.

 

[HairyO]

Let's get this sort of topic up and running, shall we? I personally think Geelong missing finals this year wasn't an anomaly and will be a sign of things to come.

And before anyone asks, Richmond has already fallen off their cliff this year imo and that's why they don't have a poll choice of their own.

Richmond have the 3rd oldest list so it could well be them.

 

[bradfisher14]

Much like 2020-21 when the Pies were in freefall and set to undergo indefinite non-finals participation, the Pies will be fine. Elite coach and top line players in their prime will keep them in stead. They are never down for long.

Certainly not suggesting you’ll be bottom 4 material, but going from flag contender to middle of the road would be a cliff fall for me.

Keen to continue the discussion. Who are the top line players in their prime you are referring to? Do you think you have enough there to carry the team when the older core transition out?

 

[adammania9]

Certainly not suggesting you’ll be bottom 4 material, but going from flag contender to middle of the road would be a cliff fall for me.

Keen to continue the discussion. Who are the top line players in their prime you are referring to? Do you think you have enough there to carry the team when the older core transition out?

Ages in 2024:
Moore 28, De Goey 28. Maynard 27, Schultz 26, Jaicos 25, Murphy 24, Quaynor 24, Hill 24, McCreery 23, Naicos 21 - is a good enough core group to suggest there won't be a heavy drop off. There are some great on-field leaders in that group (Naicos, Moore, Maynard, Murphy) who lead by example and improve the players around them.

The older core won't be transitioned out at once. There's plenty of time to replace all, expect for Pendlebury, Sidebottom and Howe. I'm not concerned over the long-term replacement of Howe who is no longer in Collingwood's top dozen. Certainly still plays an important role in the team, but intercepting third talls are amongst the easiest positions to replace and we have two or three VFL options who might succeed him. Pendlebury and Sidebottom are irreplaceable, but they are just two of 23 players. The sun will rise after they retire. We're all very hopeful Ed Allan will play a big role in the future - he has a terrific skillset.

McStay's injury is untimely and puts a lot more on Mihocek who is now 30. Kreuger has played alright in the past as our next best option, but is genuinely the most injury prone player in the league. We will need a younger tall forward in 12 months time. But one thing I'm confident is that we are now a far more attractive option to opposition key forwards than we were years ago under Buckley.

The next hardest player to replace after Sidebottom and Pendlebury is Crisp, but the ever durable and versatile Crisp should still have 3 years in him at least. He's no longer part of the starting midfield and is more used in bursts as a winger and attacking half-back. Big game players are the toughest losses and he suits that bill massively. New draftee Harry DeMattia is similar in game style, and I suspect they'll do some work together in the next few years.

The Schultz acquisition was seen as an upgrade on Ginnivan, which is true, however I think a more accurate assessment is that he's the long-term Elliott replacement. Probably not as good as a marking target, Schultz' pressure side is better and he has plenty of years on Elliott.

Mitchell was a key ingredient to bumping us up another notch this year, but he didn't individually perform like an elite midfielder. I believe he's replaceable. I'm not convinced his successor is on the list yet, but you never know.

Hoskin-Elliott and Cox are squad players. They have their moments, but they're far from irreplaceable. The Pies will play part in the ruck merry go round next year.

 

[WatWouldCyrilDo]

Yeah a pretty similar list position to 2013-2016 when Johnson, Chapman, Enright, Lonergan, Mackie and Bartel were on the way out to follow Scarlett, Milburn, Mooney, Corey, Ling and Ottens the couple of years prior.

In 2015 they sent a few players off and missed finals, then spent the next few seasons in the bottom 4.

Well, almost all of that is true.

In 2016, Geelong had the 6th oldest list, with plenty of A grade players in their mid 20s remaining to build a team around (e.g. Hawkins, selwood, danger ).

In 2023, Geelong had the oldest list, with no proven A grade talent below 30y.o (except for maybe stengle based on 22 form, but not really 23) and a list of kids under 22 y.o which is probably bottom 3 in the league.

 

[Purple Suit]

Ages in 2024:
Moore 28, De Goey 28. Maynard 27, Schultz 26, Jaicos 25, Murphy 24, Quaynor 24, Hill 24, McCreery 23, Naicos 21 - is a good enough core group to suggest there won't be a heavy drop off. There are some great on-field leaders in that group (Naicos, Moore, Maynard, Murphy) who lead by example and improve the players around them.

The older core won't be transitioned out at once. There's plenty of time to replace all, expect for Pendlebury, Sidebottom and Howe. I'm not concerned over the long-term replacement of Howe who is no longer in Collingwood's top dozen. Certainly still plays an important role in the team, but intercepting third talls are amongst the easiest positions to replace and we have two or three VFL options who might succeed him. Pendlebury and Sidebottom are irreplaceable, but they are just two of 23 players. The sun will rise after they retire. We're all very hopeful Ed Allan will play a big role in the future - he has a terrific skillset.

McStay's injury is untimely and puts a lot more on Mihocek who is now 30. Kreuger has played alright in the past as our next best option, but is genuinely the most injury prone player in the league. We will need a younger tall forward in 12 months time. But one thing I'm confident is that we are now a far more attractive option to opposition key forwards than we were years ago under Buckley.

The next hardest player to replace after Sidebottom and Pendlebury is Crisp, but the ever durable and versatile Crisp should still have 3 years in him at least. He's no longer part of the starting midfield and is more used in bursts as a winger and attacking half-back. Big game players are the toughest losses and he suits that bill massively. New draftee Harry DeMattia is similar in game style, and I suspect they'll do some work together in the next few years.

The Schultz acquisition was seen as an upgrade on Ginnivan, which is true, however I think a more accurate assessment is that he's the long-term Elliott replacement. Probably not as good as a marking target, Schultz' pressure side is better and he has plenty of years on Elliott.

Mitchell was a key ingredient to bumping us up another notch this year, but he didn't individually perform like an elite midfielder. I believe he's replaceable. I'm not convinced his successor is on the list yet, but you never know.

Hoskin-Elliott and Cox are squad players. They have their moments, but they're far from irreplaceable. The Pies will play part in the ruck merry go round next year.

Leadership void will happen & then it becomes a rapid drop. Happens to a lot of great teams. The only question is when with the Pies.