Is our future bright?

[TheHoneyBadger]

Great post. Nice to see some logic!

Thanks, Gmod. I've definitely got a glass half full outlook, and there'd be people willing to take a harder line on a few recent draftees, but I'm quite pleased with how they've gone about it.

I'm keen to see how they tackle the 2015 offseason - do they:
- Bank the picks and head to the draft?
- Target a developed KPP during the trade period?
- Attempt to offset the loss of Griffen by pushing hard for someone like Dangerfield?

Either way, I think there's plenty to be excited about in regards to list management. JMac is a tireless worker and no doubt is already doing the rounds with potential recruits, and even if we don't make a splash in the trade/free agency pool, we'll have plenty to work with come November.

I don't think any recruiter should be based on their first rounders coz I'd think probably 80% these days make it

Dalrymples picks after round 1 have been nothing other than miserable IMO

And yes while you ask id personally prefer Wines to McRae BUT I'm not unhappy with McRae at all I jut live the ways Wines goes at it

I know where you stand on guys like Hrovat and Dickson, but you don't rate Talia or Honeychurch at all?

 

[Dogs_R_Us]

Please define your version of 'long term'.

I am almost 50.
Seen it before.
Heard it before.

Not even a gf appearance FFS.

A mere child

 

[Mattdougie]

Thanks, Gmod. I've definitely got a glass half full outlook, and there'd be people willing to take a harder line on a few recent draftees, but I'm quite pleased with how they've gone about it.

I'm keen to see how they tackle the 2015 offseason - do they:
- Bank the picks and head to the draft?
- Target a developed KPP during the trade period?
- Attempt to offset the loss of Griffen by pushing hard for someone like Dangerfield?

Either way, I think there's plenty to be excited about in regards to list management. JMac is a tireless worker and no doubt is already doing the rounds with potential recruits, and even if we don't make a splash in the trade/free agency pool, we'll have plenty to work with come November.

I know where you stand on guys like Hrovat and Dickson, but you don't rate Talia or Honeychurch at all?

I'm not sure about Talia and haven't seen enough of him to really be fair to him

And Honey also so again to really be hard on them is unfair

 

[Hrovat24]

All depends on how good boyd Bonts and stringer become

 

[Bazza Bulldog]

I don't think any recruiter should be based on their first rounders coz I'd think probably 80% these days make it

Dalrymples picks after round 1 have been nothing other than miserable IMO

And yes while you ask id personally prefer Wines to McRae BUT I'm not unhappy with McRae at all I jut live the ways Wines goes at it

I wouldn't go as far as miserable (Campbell, JJ, Dahl, Hunter). Agree on Wines v McCrae. My issue with you starting to put Dalrymple in the gun, is your timing. Surely you have not already judged this years crop without playing a game?

 

[Dazb86]

This years crop will take some time. I'll be surprised if they play 15 games between them this year. Apart from maybe Daniel they all look physically behind in development.

 

[yebiga]

We brought in 1 KPF and 2 KPDs to be fair. Its easy to say we had to punt on Reece McKenzie but why? He wasn't picked up until a pick in the 70s, surely were better off not reaching 30 places for him? Just because he was talked up so much on BF does not mean he's good obviously every club doesnt rate him.

Its not an error though, its an error in your opinion, the guys who get paid big money to manage the list believe its not. You said we needed 12 KPPs on the list, I pointed out we have as many as you wanted.

Aside from morris none of those backs are proven
In the forward half you have to count stringer, crameri and bonti as key forwards
It would not have hurt to sacrifice one of the five silky picks from this draft for another tall
And perhaps one in the 194 - 197 cm range

 

[#1 Dogs Fan]

Aside from morris none of those backs are proven
In the forward half you have to count stringer, crameri and bonti as key forwards
It would not have hurt to sacrifice one of the five silky picks from this draft for another tall
And perhaps one in the 194 - 197 cm range

The way I see it is, up forward we have 4 players capable of playing the KPF role, Those 4 players are Boyd, Stringer, Campbell and Redpath.
Now I dont think for a second that all 4 can play in the same forward line infact only Stringer and Boyd are capable of playing together to effect.

I expect Boyd to play between 15 - 20 games next year so their definitely is backup if needed.

We also have players in Bonts and Crameri who will prove a difficult matchup with a functional forwatd line. I honestly beleive our major weapon next season will be our forwatd line we have plenty of players capable of kicking 2 goals on average a game. Dont be deceived.

 

[_Mike_]

This years crop will take some time. I'll be surprised if they play 15 games between them this year. Apart from maybe Daniel they all look physically behind in development.

Many expect far too much from first year recruits.. It takes them time to build the skills and a tank to play and very few exceptional players would play 23 games in their first year.

In reality it takes many of them a few years to get to the expected level

 

[Yojimbo]

Many expect far too much from first year recruits.. It takes them time to build the skills and a tank to play and very few exceptional players would play 23 games in their first year.

In reality it takes many of them a few years to get to the expected level

Agree Mike, i saw a photo of the six draftees and only Lukas Webb crossed
his arms and tried to puff out the guns the rest looked like an add for the
ante bicep association. As a weight to height man i was staggered to take
four players under 70 kg, but their skills are impressive.

 

[SPower]

Bottom 6 this yr , above that and I'll be surprised. Looking at where we have performed ladder wise and taking into account the experience that has departed, I am not expecting a rapid rise up the ladder.

 

[JJHunter]

Lets look at our young talls

Talia - 195cm
Redpath - 194cm
T Boyd - 200cm
Z Cordy - 191cm
A Cordy - 202cm
T Campbell - 201 cm
F Roberts - 193cm
J Roughead - 200cm


There are plenty of talls in the mix...

I don't rate ayce or redpath and don't think Boyd will have an impact next year. So too zaine and these days I don't class him as tall.

 

[JJHunter]

We're going to struggle next season We've gone to being the second least experienced side on average games played.
We unloaded some dead wood IMHO, but comparing GWS and the Suns is bordering on stupidity.
How on earth are we to compete with two sides who have effectively handed premierships with Rediculous draft concessions, 17 year olds, zone selections ! Need I go on ? Even Peter Rohde could coach their clubs to something resembling success! Please have some sort of perspective

Ridiculous why ? We have to compete ourselves to them as they are the ones we are competing against. If we are to win a flag we have to beat those sides.

no point getting excited unless we can compete against those lists

 

[Bazza Bulldog]

I'm not sure about Talia and haven't seen enough of him to really be fair to him

And Honey also so again to really be hard on them is unfair

You also seem quite negative about Prudden ... have you seen enough of him?

 

[_Mike_]

I don't rate ayce or redpath and don't think Boyd will have an impact next year. So too zaine and these days I don't class him as tall.

nothing to do with who will make it or who wont, more of a picture of how many young talls we have

 

[Proffessor]

I'd suggest our picks from 2005-08 are doing more damage than anything else. We're missing half a decade's worth of quality.

2005 - Higgins, Addison, Baird, Montgomery, West - all gone.
2006 - Everitt, Stack, Hill, Lynch, O'Shea - all gone.
2007 - Grant, Ward, Reid, Wood, Boumann, O'Keefe - special circumstances for Ward aside, we've got one best 22 player from that crop.
2008 - Cordy, Roughead, Jones - again, one best 22 player and there are still question marks over his head.

Dalrymple's first draft was a disaster, but I think he's done a reasonably good job since. He couldn't go wrong in 2010 with Liberatore and Wallis available, but other than that, he's done well.

In 2011, we picked Clay Smith ahead of Hayden Crozier following Ward's departure - a fit and firing Clay will demonstrate why this was the case. We were lucky to get a reasonably impressive but raw key position defender in Talia at 39, and Dickson is one of very few forwards in our squad that can be relied upon to mark in forward 50 and slot the goal. Pearce has shown little, but he's been ravaged by injury.

In 2012, we went with Stringer and Macrae - both elite talents. "Oh, but anyone can nail a pick in the top 10" - I'm so glad you said that. The 3 players that went before Stringer and Macrae? O'Rourke, Plowman and Toumpas. If you need further evidence that an early draft pick isn't a guaranteed 200 gamer, look at the near-decade of garbage Scott Clayton served up with early picks, Cooney and Griffen the exceptions. Hrovat was good value at 21, having been overlooked because of his height. Jury is out on Prudden.

In 2013, we picked Bontempelli, a bolter. A gutsy pick at the time with more assured prospects in Kolodjashnij and Adelaide-bound Aish still on the table, we went for the raw prototype player with enormous scope for improvement - and I challenge anyone to argue that it hasn't paid off, at least at this point in time. Fuller appeared an inspired pick at the time given our dearth of players in his age bracket, but I've seen literally nothing to be excited about - I believe he might be injured, but the outlook isn't so good at this point. I won't bore people with what I think of Honeychurch but he was tremendous value at 60.

Who knows what we'll make of the 2014 crop? Initially I wasn't too impressed, and would've preferred that we took a chance on a guy like McDonald in the ND or even Keitel in the RD (although I'm assured that he is shit), but I'm glad that the club had the guts to pick Caleb Daniel - if you're good enough, you're tall enough, and he's good enough. We selected him with the pick we got for Jones, who is still lolloping down the yellow brick road on his way to ask the Wizard for a brain. Hamilton is one that I'm unsure about, but I like McLean, Webb and Dale.

Is this draft the be-all and end-all? Far from it. We haven't finished adding elite talent to our list, but what we've done is address a serious problem - our ball movement in the last 3-4 years has been absolutely stagnant. Guys like McLean, Webb, Dale, Smith and Biggs can break the lines and kick well.

Obviously our defensive structures and efforts in 2014 were absolutely woeful, but there isn't exactly a dearth of KPDs on the list - there's certainly a dearth of quality/proven KPPs, but we have to start somewhere. Roughead, Talia, Roberts, Cordy and Hamling are all KPP height and competing for that place in the side. I don't think all will make it, and think some are better suited to other defensive roles/other areas of the ground, so with any luck we'll be able to lure a mature defender to the club at the end of next season.

It's easy to get sucked into the idea that we have to address all our needs at one draft - we'd be missing out on players of a higher standard in our determination to just tick a few boxes and hope those players come good in those roles. They're playing the long game, they're not going to panic and submit to the common media misconceptions.

And hey - isn't it nice to have just one off-season in which we're NOT asking who is going to play full forward? And not lamenting that the answer is Liam Jones?

I think your rating of the pre-Dalrymple drafts is skewed because you neglect the players that have been traded but are still playing AFL.
For example the reason we have Macrae, is because of the compensation from losing Ward. Regardless of your opinion of Jones, he is still considered talented enough to be listed by an AFL club. I think you also overestimate our unproven young players, several of which are lucky to still be on an AFL list, and who may not have been afforded the luxury of so much time to prove themselves at another club, or during a different time.

We all hope they repay the faith that the club has shown, but let us not forget where the club has finished during the last three years. No one has been more critical of our coaching during that period than I have, but as well as being mismanaged our list has also diminished in strength during that time.

 

[TheHoneyBadger]

I think your rating of the pre-Dalrymple drafts is skewed because you neglect the players that have been traded but are still playing AFL.
For example the reason we have Macrae, is because of the compensation from losing Ward. Regardless of your opinion of Jones, he is still considered talented enough to be listed by an AFL club. I think you also overestimate our unproven young players, several of which are lucky to still be on an AFL list, and who may not have been afforded the luxury of so much time to prove themselves at another club, or during a different time.

We all hope they repay the faith that the club has shown, but let us not forget where the club has finished during the last three years. No one has been more critical of our coaching during that period than I have, but as well as being mismanaged our list has also diminished in strength during that time.

I agree, in some regards.

While there are exceptions in Higgins, Ward, Everitt and to a lesser extent Jones, the damage done to the list over that period is staggering - and yes, everyone's a genius with the power of hindsight, but I can't abide the notion that Dalrymple is totally responsible for our on-field woes. He's got his flaws, and I don't agree with every pick we've made, but we've padded out the list with plenty of quality players selected beyond the first round.

Our list has diminished in strength, but as a club that didn't have salary cap room nor the lure of success, that was an inevitability after 2011, the final year in which the club believed it could challenge. Unforeseen events of late aside (Griffen walkout, etc), what drafting/list management decisions have you taken exception to in the last three years?

 

[paul scholes]

Ridiculous why ? We have to compete ourselves to them as they are the ones we are competing against. If we are to win a flag we have to beat those sides.

no point getting excited unless we can compete against those lists

So you completely gloss over the draft concessions these clubs have been Given? We're competing against them with a hand tied behind our back . Gold Coast have already gone past us! I think we're going to struggle next season ,losing about 1000 games will do that, regardless of the players output.

 

[Mattdougie]

I wouldn't go as far as miserable (Campbell, JJ, Dahl, Hunter). Agree on Wines v McCrae. My issue with you starting to put Dalrymple in the gun, is your timing. Surely you have not already judged this years crop without playing a game?

Hunter was father son so he can't be counted and I don't think Campbell has proven anything YET

The kids we got this year may turn out to be very good but due to there size they can only replace blokes on the list already they are not complimentary to them.

By that I mean that

 

[JJHunter]

So you completely gloss over the draft concessions these clubs have been Given? We're competing against them with a hand tied behind our back . Gold Coast have already gone past us! I think we're going to struggle next season ,losing about 1000 games will do that, regardless of the players output.

I'm not glossing over anything. Just not into making excuses or whinging about concessions etc.

This thread is about whether our future is bright - all along I've sAid its only as bright as the competition we have to beat. The expansion clubs are two we have to beat and imo both clubs are ahead of us in the race to flag.

No point getting into how they got their list as it's irrelevant to the question about if our future is bright - our future is as a 6-10 side on the ladder list cause I have 5 sides above us in two years time.

 

[BRWB]

The future is dim next year. Bottom four. IMO Teams below us for sure are Carlton and Saints, Melbourne and GWS to start improving and are no easy beats. Brisbane will shoot up the ladder.

We have lost a hell of a lot of experience. Griffen, Cooney, even Higgins and Jones. And to he honest I don't disagree with the 'list management' in removing these players. Of course the way we got to that doesn't appear to have been controlled or even planned.

Medium term 2-3 years, its really going to depend on Boyd up forward. If he can play near his potential, that will be fantastic. We needed a Boyd and am glad (well hope) that this KPF spot isn't a worry for the next decade. Down back....well this coming season will tell a tale. The club has clearly backed Talia and Roberts, that Austin kept them out last year sends shudders through me. Hamling is unlikely to ever do much going on the success rate of other club's delistees alone...Really worried on the KPD front, imagine we will be targetting one next season. We'll see but a slow incremental climb out of the bottom 4 and toward the eight. This could be accelerated with trading/FAing in more KPD quality, and if our recent later pick drafting is better than Simon's first three years at the helm or even if we choose to use the rookie draft for young non-recycled talent.

Longer term things look okay (3-7yrs), providing we can draft/trade some KPDs (or Talia and/or Roberts surprise). Noting I think Cordy is more third tall, and is an unknowm anyway. We should be competing around the top 4. Whether we can beat GWS ,GC and Syd and Port, well everything needs to go right. Our young core of Macrae, Stringer and Bont and Boyd and Libba is as good as any. The depth is problematic at the moment, as is the KPDs.

And no I don't think this assessment is unduly negative , just realistic, perhaps even slightly optimistic as some strong development and improvement is being accounted for.

Remember that:

Pessimists see the glass as half empty
Optimists see the glass as half full
Realists see the glass as half full of water and air

And while the optimists, pessimists and realists are all arguing about the glass there is the opportunist who drinks the glass.

I hope our club is populated with a lot of opportunists.

 

[TempleKelvington]

Ridiculous why ? We have to compete ourselves to them as they are the ones we are competing against. If we are to win a flag we have to beat those sides.

no point getting excited unless we can compete against those lists

Yep we have to beat those side in a few years to win a flag.

We are a young list, but I think it's very talented. All clubs have good kids but we have a lot of them. I don't expect a lot next year, hard to imagine anything better than 7 or 8 wins and a bottom 4 place, but I expect us to be able to compete with the expansion clubs in a couple of years.

 

[Dav1d]

BRWB Austin keeping Talia/Roberts out of the side doesn't surprise me, what worries me is if they (Talia & Roberts) will be forced to play too soon because the teams that are up the top, allow these KPPs to develop for while in the lower level & if our two guys will be ready physically

there may have been few KPDs this draft and a couple that will be in the next draft, but of course like I said
you don't really want them to play until they are ready

 

[Hrovat24]

The future is dim next year. Bottom four. IMO Teams below us for sure are Carlton and Saints, Melbourne and GWS to start improving and are no easy beats. Brisbane will shoot up the ladder.

We have lost a hell of a lot of experience. Griffen, Cooney, even Higgins and Jones. And to he honest I don't disagree with the list management in removing these players. Of course the way we got to that doesn't appear to have been controlled or even planned.

Medium term 2-3 years, its really going to depend on Boyd up forward. If he can play near his potential, that will be fantastic. We needed a Boyd and am glad (well hope) that this KPF spot isn't a worry for the next decade. Down back....well this coming season will tell a tale. The club has clearly backed Talia and Roberts, that Austin kept them out last year sends shudders through me. Hamling is unlikely to ever do much going on the success rate of other club's delistees alone...Really worried on the KPD front, imagine we will be targetting one next season. We'll see but a slow incremental climb out of the bottom 4 and toward the eight. This could be accelerated with trading/FAing in more KPD quality, and if our recent later pick drafting is better than Simon's first three years at the helm or even if we choose to use the rookie draft for young non-recycled talent.

Longer term things look okay (3-7yrs), providing we can draft/trade some KPDs (or Talia and/or Roberts surprise). Noting I think Cordy is more third tall, and is an unknowm anyway. We should be competing around the top 4. Whether we can beat GWS ,GC and Syd and Port, well everything needs to go right. Our young core of Macrae, Stringer and Bont and Boyd and Libba is as good as any. The depth is problematic at the moment, as is the KPDs.

And no I don't think this assessment is unduly negative , just realistic, perhaps even slightly optimistic as some strong development and improvement is being accounted for.

Remember that:

Pessimists see the glass as half empty
Optimists see the glass as half full
Realists see the glass as half full of water and air

And while the optimists, pessimists and realists are all arguing about the glass there is the opportunist who drinks the glass.

I hope our club is populated with a lot of opportunists.

Those players wanted out

 

[BRWB]

Those players wanted out

Yes they did....hence my saying it wasn't planned list management, but it could be good despite this