Is the top 4 set?

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Blue1980

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Jun 9, 2011
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Not taking a pot shot at you personally as I read this regularly on here but I think people forget that the benefits of the interstate home ground advantage have an equal and opposite away ground disadvantage every other week.
I.e. instead of the one sided crowd in your favour they are just as one sided barracking for the opposition etc.
Add to that the negative short and long term effects on injury recuperation when flying every second week and the interstate teams would generally be considered a net locational detriment (especially Perth given the flight times).
If your contending you’ve just got to be good enough to win no matter where.


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It makes literally no sense to think home ground does the job for a non Vic side, or for Geelong. It doesn’t explain the fact that half the non Vic sides are currently either rubbish or not particularly good (West Coast, Adelaide, Port coming good maybe, Giants haven’t been good, Suns competitive but not dominant).

It’s almost like if you are a good side you win more games than if you aren’t a good side, regardless of where you play.
 

Purple Suit

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The give away is percentage. Top 3 have massive ones, while the next 5 teams are much lower. Carlton playing well but not consistent enough to play 4 quarters every game yet. I recon Geelong will still be more of a chance to displace them.

Freo unproven long term but you don't get 150 percent after 8 rounds for no reason & still haven't had a full team vs other top 8 sides. I recon they will make it.
 

Blue1980

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Correct.
Just add me Pittonet in ruck, Cuningham on wing/half forward region and Mitch Mini-Mcgov interceptor down back and ready to rock n roll on our day.
Melbourne and Brisbane are the teams that need to catch up with.

A fit marchy could play the gov role.

Thing is he’s been as injury prone as gov, so can’t bank on it.
 

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Purple Suit

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5 of Fremantles wins have come from the bottom 5 sides. While wins against Geelong and Carlton are good, they have a much tougher fixture after round 11. Wouldn’t have them as a lock just yet.
You don't get much tougher than Geelong in Geelong & we were missing 5 of our best 22. Melbourne at the G in a few weeks is tougher, the rest are easier on paper. We only play Brisbane at home once.
 

Blackas87

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You don't get much tougher than Geelong in Geelong & we were missing 5 of our best 22. Melbourne at the G in a few weeks is tougher, the rest are easier on paper. We only play Brisbane at home once.
Don’t get me wrong great win, Carlton also good. Lost to the Saints at home and the other wins the bottom 5 sides, all the top 4 contenders should be beating those sides. Once the Melbourne game comes along Freo then have 7 top 8 teams over the next 9 games, one of the non top 8 teams is Port and then after that stretch of 9 is the bulldogs and those clubs could be back in form at that stage. Clearly a top 8 team I’m just not going lock them into the top 4 just yet.
 

bungalow_bill

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People always talk about top sides at this stage of the season not having beaten anyone. Thing is most of the others sides have dropped games against each other, hence why the top sides are the top sides at this point.

Could say we’ve only beaten rubbish sides like Adelaide, North, Port, Hawthorn and currently mid range or worse sides in dogs and Tigers. But Adelaide beat Richmond, Port beat St Kilda, hawks beat Geelong etc.

Consistently winning games you should win is the hallmark of a top side.

Lions copped the same when we bolted into the top 2 in 2019. Haven't beaten anyone blah blah blah. Just the previous years premier in the first round that's all. It's the shock of the new and other teams trying to put you back in your place
 

Snuffaluphagus

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Sep 10, 2015
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I THINK our defence, system and structure is strong enough that we'll win enough to finish top 4, it will keep us in every game. Win 3 of the next 4 and we're a lock
 

danster168

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It's because you're coming across quite entitled considering the position you're in. I'm just stating facts that Richmond is in the bottom bracket what did you expect???
Ps for your record we only have Nth once. Also who in god's name predicted WC & Ess would be this shiate? They finished 8th & 9th respectively last season...I note both higher than us and are our double ups.
So how is that kissed on the weener, Mr hindsight?
Whether we expected WC or Ess to be this shite is irrelevant. I agree, not many predicted it. All the more reason why its very lucky to have turned out this way for you guys. But I think it's an absolute joke that the competition and fixturing is so unfair that its almost irrelevant to say where your team ended up at the end of the home and away. It should be a 17 round season (everyone plays each other once). Anything other than that completely affects the integrity of the competition.

For teams that get to play Ess, WCE, North etc. twice, they're getting potentially an extra 4-8 points and as much as 5-10%.

Also, I'm not entitled at all. I think people are getting way ahead of Melbourne. We more unlikely than likely to win the GF. What are our odds? $2.50? That means we're a slim chance of winning. People should really learn to understand that with umpires being so bad these days anything can happen. Not to mention, inaccurate kicking for goal, injuries, an off day. etc. If the finals was a 3 game series, our odds would be like $1.30. But it's only a once off game. Anything can happen.
 

Falcon3518

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Whether we expected WC or Ess to be this shite is irrelevant. I agree, not many predicted it. All the more reason why its very lucky to have turned out this way for you guys. But I think it's an absolute joke that the competition and fixturing is so unfair that its almost irrelevant to say where your team ended up at the end of the home and away. It should be a 17 round season (everyone plays each other once). Anything other than that completely affects the integrity of the competition.

For teams that get to play Ess, WCE, North etc. twice, they're getting potentially an extra 4-8 points and as much as 5-10%.

Also, I'm not entitled at all. I think people are getting way ahead of Melbourne. We more unlikely than likely to win the GF. What are our odds? $2.50? That means we're a slim chance of winning. People should really learn to understand that with umpires being so bad these days anything can happen. Not to mention, inaccurate kicking for goal, injuries, an off day. etc. If the finals was a 3 game series, our odds would be like $1.30. But it's only a once off game. Anything can happen.

Not sure why this is a surprise to you, the AFL try and equalise the game as much as possible. With things like salary caps, draft picks and yes the fixture.

Were you complaining when the Dees got easier fixtures when they were shit? Didn’t think so or maybe you didn’t even know lol. Are you not confident enough that the Dees will win another flag with the harder fixture, because I can’t see any other reason why you would complain. This is why B2B is so hard, premiers get the hardest fixture.

PS you guys got the middle bracket fixture last year because you finished 9th the year before.
 

The 747

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You'd think that Melbourne and Brisbane are locks for the top 2...
Fremantle, Carlton, Sydney & Geelong fighting for 3rd and 4th-6th...

St Kilda likely next in line... Likely top 7 are a lock for the 8...

I don't see Richmond a lock for the 8, think it will be a fight for 8th out of
Richmond, Collingwood, Port, Bulldogs...

At this stage I'd go with (We won't get a true idea until late second half of the season)

1.. Melbourne
2.. Brisbane
3.. Fremantle
V
4.. Sydney
5.. Carlton
6.. Geelong
V

7.. St Kilda
V
8.. Port

Don't disagree on the merits there but I think Geelong have a very easy fixture. Sydney are still very young and not sure they can sustain their best all season. Look out in the coming years though, they are going to be very strong.
 

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RonnieRaven

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I expect Fremantle and Carlton to fall in a heap and just be scraping to the 8

I also think that Richmond and Port have started their runs and will continue til the pointy end of the season by winning 75% of their games
The draw does get tougher for the anchors and the normal thing for a young teams is to drop away as the season rolls on.
I think it will be different this years for us.
All going well fyfe and tabner coming back fresh for the back half will be great.
We also have great depth at the moment plus covid all the kids would of had at least 1 game rest by the halfway point.
2 games clear in the 4 it would be a big fall.
 

tropicaltiger

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The draw does get tougher for the anchors and the normal thing for a young teams is to drop away as the season rolls on.
I think it will be different this years for us.
All going well fyfe and tabner coming back fresh for the back half will be great.
We also have great depth at the moment plus covid all the kids would of had at least 1 game rest by the halfway point.
2 games clear in the 4 it would be a big fall.
no offence because he is a great player but it has been said before that Fremantle play better without fyfe as he is a ball magnet/hog and unreliable kick. so your current structures will change.
 

tropicaltiger

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Yeah people can say some real crazy things sometimes.

 

Boppo

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If the Suns roll Freo at home this week then our top 4 cred looks dubious and the Suns will have a nice run towards 8th spot over the next month.
 

RonnieRaven

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no offence because he is a great player but it has been said before that Fremantle play better without fyfe as he is a ball magnet/hog and unreliable kick. so your current structures will change.
I haven’t seen freo play like they have this year before.
Fyfe hasn’t played this year.
His the same age as Gawn and won a Brownlow and captained the AA team a few years ago.
He would see this as an opportunity to cement his legacy over the next few years and don’t see him making a good team who is losing centre clearances a bad team.
No offence taken
 

Purple Suit

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no offence because he is a great player but it has been said before that Fremantle play better without fyfe as he is a ball magnet/hog and unreliable kick. so your current structures will change.
Do you think our coaches just change the whole game plan because Fyfe is back? He’ll replace the 22nd best player in the team, not a bad outcome.

Read what you wrote and replace Fyfe with Dusty & Freo with Richmond. That’s how dumb that sounds.
 

tropicaltiger

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I haven’t seen freo play like they have this year before.
Fyfe hasn’t played this year.
His the same age as Gawn and won a Brownlow and captained the AA team a few years ago.
He would see this as an opportunity to cement his legacy over the next few years and don’t see him making a good team who is losing centre clearances a bad team.
No offence taken
 

RonnieRaven

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Is that the mick Malthouse who declared he couldn’t see blues losing a game and got sacked in rd 8.
Or the mick who said the bombers are going to win the flag this year?
 

tropicaltiger

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Do you think our coaches just change the whole game plan because Fyfe is back? He’ll replace the 22nd best player in the team, not a bad outcome.

Read what you wrote and replace Fyfe with Dusty & Freo with Richmond. That’s how dumb that sounds.
both top 10 players of this century but apples and oranges
 

Purple Suit

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both top 10 players of this century but apples and oranges
I know they are different, but all the crap written is about Fyfe is regarding his defensive pressure and Fyfe tackles more than Dusty does. Do you think 1 player who is less defensive but an absolute weapon is going to make you a worse side? It's just the media writing click bait.

Were you be concerned bringing Dusty back into your team on the defensive side or if we had Dusty, do you think Freo would be concerned bringing him in to our setup if available?
 

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