Is this a two term win?

[Caesar]

Just curious what people think.

 

[DaRick]

Yes.

Albo won't do a Newman, and the LNP have been utterly decimated, stripped of candidates who can seriously challenge Albo/Chalmers.

This is the federal equivalent of the 2001 QLD election, which took the LNP over a decade to recover from.

 

[Seeds]

Just curious what people think.

Tell me what major national and global events happen over the next 3 years and then i will make a guess.

If the status quo remains and nothing unpredictable happens then labor wins. But when do we get no black swans?

 

[Seeds]

Yes.

Albo won't do a Newman, and the LNP have been utterly decimated, stripped of candidates who can seriously challenge Albo/Chalmers.

This is the federal equivalent of the 2001 QLD election, which took the LNP over a decade to recover from.

The future is not history. Who says the liberals ever recover?

 

[DaRick]

The future is not history. Who says the liberals ever recover?

True, but nothing lasts forever.

They'll be back, albeit perhaps under a different, reformed guise.

 

[Freo Big Fella]

Yes - if only for the fact that it’s going to take at least that long for the Liberals to burn their state level organisations to the ground and start again from scratch in WA and Victoria.

 

[krakouers]

Yes - if only for the fact that it’s going to take at least that long for the Liberals to burn their state level organisations to the ground and start again from scratch in WA and Victoria.

Basil will save them, don’t forget

 

[Barrybran]

Basil will save them, don’t forget

He'll take them under his nose and teach them the way

 

[CarnTheScray]

Libs have nothing on Labor compared to the ammunition they had during the 2000s and 2010s. Moving on from the backstabbings and towards presenting a united front has the LNP and its media grasping at straws every election.

Who is going to be the Liberal leader? Angus Taylor??? Lol. The moment they elected Morrison as leader was the moment where they could never turn back. Turnbull looks like a ****ing six term party leader compared to what they have dished up since.

 

[Minka Beaver]

Yes. This isn't just a one off - the Federal Election is the continuation of a series of results that's been happening nationwide for a long time at state and federal level.

More concerning is where the LNP turns to as a coalition. The Nationals have a clear base, but the Liberals less so. The 'broad church' doesn't exist now that they've been hollowed out by falling membership, the increased presence of religious conservatives and economic radicals. It feels like they're in a doom loop. The traditional 'wets' all vote teal, whose failure to form a coherent party platform doesn't appeal to me (but each to their own). It feels if anything that we're now back in the Interwar period because there is no clear conservative coalition.

 

[The Terrible Thinker]

If Liberal keeps aiming their campaign in the region below. They will never see a majority government ever again at this rate.

 

[the_interloper]

Just curious what people think.

I would think so, I'm no political historian but not sure anyone has swung back that far after a defeat. Looks like another Libs leader set up to fall, though I can't say they seem to have an anointed one laying in wait.

 

[geoffjennings79]

There are no absolutes, but given the majority size, and the dearth of genuine leadership material, it would take something significant domestically and/or internationally in the next 3 years, or even in the lead up to a 2028 election, for an opposition to gain govt from so far behind.

 

[DaRick]

There are no absolutes, but given the majority size, and the dearth of genuine leadership material, it would take something significant domestically and/or internationally in the next 3 years, or even in the lead up to a 2028 election, for an opposition to gain govt from so far behind.

Short of Albo inducing a depression, I'm not seeing it.

 

[kickazz]

Even with major external upheaval I'd think many voters would stick with the incumbent.

I recon the only real chance of Libs winning the next election is if Labor take this opportunity to make significant reforms that backfire somehow.

 

[Golden_6]

Does anyone see a scenario where Albo retires ahead of the next election and is replaced by a Chalmers or Clair type?

Albo will be 65 by then and it might be a good way to 'refresh' the leadership and reduce the risk of incumbency fatigue.

 

[masai tu]

Basil will save them, don’t forget

Basil will never be the biggest nose in WA.

 

[QuietB]

Tell me what major national and global events happen over the next 3 years and then i will make a guess.

If the status quo remains and nothing unpredictable happens then labor wins. But when do we get no black swans?

A lot of those black swan events can be very good for incumbents, particularly security threats.

Based on the current trajectory this term is going to see inflation settle, interest rates fall, it remains to be seen what the economy does given Trump's ineptitude, but the shift to right has hit a wall - again thanks to Trump's ineptitude.

Theoretically Labor has survived and actually improved their position through the toughest period. The Liberals had the cost of living crisis as a gift and they squandered it.

There is nothing to indicate Albanese is going to be anything other than boring and steady. The left hate it but they are not about to protest vote to the Liberals, and boring competence is exactly what the "quiet Australians" want.

 

[DaRick]

A lot of those black swan events can be very good for incumbents, particularly security threats.

Based on the current trajectory this term is going to see inflation settle, interest rates fall, it remains to be seen what the economy does given Trump's ineptitude, but the shift to right has hit a wall - again thanks to Trump's ineptitude.

Theoretically Labor has survived and actually improved their position through the toughest period. The Liberals had the cost of living crisis as a gift and they squandered it.

There is nothing to indicate Albanese is going to be anything other than boring and steady. The left hate it but they are not about to protest vote to the Liberals, and boring competence is exactly what the "quiet Australians" want.

Trump will still be around in 2028.

I doubt he has the same impact here that he did in this election just gone, but he'll be like a bad smell.

 

[Kyptastic]

You'd imagine so.

The one caveat is that the electorate, because it's a lot less rusted on to the parties than it used to be, is a lot swingier. If Labor dropped the ball this term, I reckon you would see a lot of electorates look like what we saw in the Werribee by-election, with a whole heap of spraying preferences. If things fell the wrong way with those, Labor could be in minority next term.

Albo seems to be too competent to let that happen though. And the Libs are unlikely to have earned the public's trust back by then to take advantage of it.

 

[QuietB]

Trump will still be around in 2028.

I doubt he has the same impact here that he did in this election just gone, but he'll be like a bad smell.

And there will still be nuts in the Liberal ranks wearing MAGA hats.

 

[kickazz]

And there will still be nuts in the Liberal ranks wearing MAGA hats.

It still amazes me how bad JNP was for the campaign, and then again on election night she was bad for the LNP brand.

 

[QuietB]

It still amazes me how bad JNP was for the campaign, and then again on election night she was bad for the LNP brand.

It is not like that is a surprise though. Anyone who even pays a passing interest in politics knows that JNP is a self serving right wing nut job.

If you are trying to win inner city seats in Melbourne and Sydney (and Adelaide and Perth and Brisbane and Hobart ) you probably don't promote right wing loons wearing MAGA hats from the NT.

 

[Dazzler9]

I'll extrapolate from the WA experience to predict what happens in 2028.

The Libs were obliterated in 2021, left with just two lower house members. It was a position they were unable to recover from to be even remotely competitive in 2025.

The same will happen federally in 2028. The Libs are left with a pile of rubble with which to rebuild. No obvious talent to take them forward. They will have a solid loss in 2028, unless Labor turns in a debacle of a performance, which it clearly won't, based on the past 3 years.

 

[nut]

I'll extrapolate from the WA experience to predict what happens in 2028.

The Libs were obliterated in 2021, left with just two lower house members. It was a position they were unable to recover from to be even remotely competitive in 2025.

The same will happen federally in 2028. The Libs are left with a pile of rubble with which to rebuild. No obvious talent to take them forward. They will have a solid loss in 2028.

And there is a real danger that independents strengthen and also become the main challengers in Labor held seats… making it impossible for the LNP.

The independents already own Fowler…

Also Sussan Leys seat for the first time has had a massive swing towards an independent…