Draft Watcher Knightmare 2020 Draft Almanac

[flipper83]

I made no slip up. 2010 was season 1 for Gawn, having been drafted in 2009. The numbers I reference were 2015 for Gawn when he first received the ruck mantle. He was terrific then already, but only played the 13 games, earning his spot during the second half of the season. Gawn's 2015 numbers were excellent with 2016 largely a full season of the same thing with only incremental improvements.



Suggesting English gets crushed for hitouts isn't news and I don't view it in isolation as a fair metric to judge him on solely.

You don't have a thing to complain about regarding thorough answering of the question when I reference both the fourth and fifth seasons of Grundy and Gawn to both satisfy your own question in its entirety and provide greater insight and analysis for those who desire it both regarding hitouts and the relevant metrics that indicate competitiveness.

I can't speak for others, but I find myself comparing guys of the same age to one another rather than the year they join the AFL system. And I look back directly not at how many years in the system but rather use age as my preferred method for comparison. It's like if looking for a Tim Kelly or Tom Stewart comparison. You don't compare them to guys in their drafts, they're entirely different ages. It's instead looking at guys at the same age or when guys were at that age to determine how effective or otherwise they are.



I don't view ruckmen as effective in their role if they don't show competence in hitouts/hitouts to advantage/contested possessions/clearances/centre clearances/tackles/pressure acts. The better the combination of those, the better the ruckman. There are too many contests in a given game they're involved in for them not to be at least reasonable in those areas of the game by position. Contested marks, intercept marks, marks i50 and goals kicked add substantial value to quality of play/output, but it's not without those other aspects on its own enough to make someone a good ruckman.

English as a ruckman in my view is a modern Josh Fraser. Great around the ground and still a respectable enough ruckman, but gets exploited by the stronger ruckman at stoppages. Josh Fraser just like English I feel would have had an even better career had he been more of a wing/hff who can play relieving ruck minutes but it isn't his main gig.

I'm not the coach or list manager, and I'm aware the Dogs don't have the personnel to replace English through the ruck, but I'd be making it my number one priority for the Dogs in the offseason as a method of creating a unique competitive advantage on matchday.



The perception with wings that they need to be fast I don't consider to be a pre-requisite. I look at it as a misnomer if anything. I view it most as a bonus. It's more a position that is about endurance, accumulation and skills. And if contested marking, intercept marking and scoreboard impact are further weapons they're major bonuses. English probably would be only a moderate accumulator at his position and skills reasonable without being incredible, but he ticks those other boxes and the contested marking, intercept marking and scoreboard impact categories he could be elite by position.

HFF I would consider equally good for English with the usage as per your thinking. Wing/HFF with relieving ruck minutes is how I see him maximised. Whether he's pushing forward or back, he reads it so well and has really developed his contested marking to an excellent level with his clean hands overhead and much improved capacity to mark v contact. And in either role he could do all that and no one would be able to stop him or limit his impact.

Not that English is the only guy in the competition I consider being played out of position/being used in a suboptimal position, but he seems the relevant one of the day and the one I'd probably consider to be among if not the greatest missed opportunity. Or at least in my mind when I go through the totality of his game and what he brings to the table.

I still think the majority of possessions on the wing are ground ball gets and English might be exploited by smaller players with more agility and acceleration.

Comparing English's stats this year to other players previous years is going to be skewed by the shorter quarters. Obviously nothing can be done about that but worth noting.

Looking at where English sits among ruckman this year in the stats you have highlighted as being important:
5th for contested possessions
12th for hitouts (I think a pointless stat)
11th for hitouts to advantage
10th for center clearances
10th for total clearances
17th for tackles
6th for pressure acts
So not really bad figures for a player in his 4th year.

Anyway I'm sure most watchers of your thread are not interested in Tim English so I'll drop it now. Thanks for your thoughts

 

[geelong_crazy26]

Knightmare geelong will have 3 first round picks this year, who do you think will be on wells radar this season to draft with those picks??

 

[Wild Bill]

There’s struggling then there’s being uncompetitive. Some of the vision of brown looking at his opponent instead of ball scared of the contact coming, constantly running under the ball, is really poor for an established key forward.

If Brown is worth a 2nd round pick then JD would be lucky to go for a 4th round pick.


The good clubs know form is temporary. He has kicked the most goals in the last 3 years. Plugger is not kicking goals for us this year.

 

[andleanback]

If Brown is worth a 2nd round pick then JD would be lucky to go for a 4th round pick.


The good clubs know form is temporary. He has kicked the most goals in the last 3 years. Plugger is not kicking goals for us this year.

Form is temporary but ben brown has always had his limitations.

 

[Wild Bill]

Form is temporary but ben brown has always had his limitations.

Every player has limitations or have I missed watching the perfect player?

 

[andleanback]

Every player has limitations or have I missed watching the perfect player?

Not every player is expecting to be paid 650k+ when they out of contract. Clubs have figured out how to play Ben brown and it’s up to him to Evolve and figure out a way to perform.

 

[Yoda_]

Knightmare, Essendon likely going to the draft with our first (finally), expected to be around pick 8 - 14. Could you give us your top 5 - 8 or so inside midfielders?


Our inside midfield stocks are well documented.

 

[the big lebowski]

Not every player is expecting to be paid 650k+ when they out of contract. Clubs have figured out how to play Ben brown and it’s up to him to Evolve and figure out a way to perform.

Lol yes. They just figured out ben brown now. It has nothing to do with the way north are playing.

 

[andleanback]

Lol yes. They just figured out ben brown now. It has nothing to do with the way north are playing.

Look at his record at and anyway from marvel. What’s the best game brown has played away from marvel.. elimination final 2014? Under the roof he gets the dry ball delivered lace out how he likes it 14-15 games a year, you take that away from him and he doesn’t have much to fall back on. Teams are now sitting a defender in front of him blocking his leading lane. If he went to a team like collingwood who play a lot of night games at the g (due to prime time) being constantly exposed to the elements wouldnt help his output.

 

[the big lebowski]

What’s the best game brown has played away from marvel.. elimination final 2014?

If you’re going off goals scored, probably the 7 he kicked at the Gabba. Or the numerous bags of 5 in tassie. He’s kicked 4 on multiple occasions at the G. He just hardly plays there. He’s also kicked goals at marvel with the roof open, so im not sure how that fits into your narrative.

But yes, his match winning elimination final was a great game.

 

[Wild Bill]

Not every player is expecting to be paid 650k+ when they out of contract. Clubs have figured out how to play Ben brown and it’s up to him to Evolve and figure out a way to perform.

What rubbish - less than 10 games ago he kicked 10 goals in a game. They figured out how to okay Brown years ago and that still didn’t stop him being one of the best key forwards in the comp.

Who are the 650k players with no limitations?

 

[Knightmare]

I still think the majority of possessions on the wing are ground ball gets and English might be exploited by smaller players with more agility and acceleration.

Comparing English's stats this year to other players previous years is going to be skewed by the shorter quarters. Obviously nothing can be done about that but worth noting.

Looking at where English sits among ruckman this year in the stats you have highlighted as being important:
5th for contested possessions
12th for hitouts (I think a pointless stat)
11th for hitouts to advantage
10th for center clearances
10th for total clearances
17th for tackles
6th for pressure acts
So not really bad figures for a player in his 4th year.

Anyway I'm sure most watchers of your thread are not interested in Tim English so I'll drop it now. Thanks for your thoughts

I don't see wings as necessarily needing to get the bulk of their possessions on a wing or from ground balls. Were Richo or N.Riewoldt when they played wing prolific ground ball winners? Are they decidedly better than English in this category? I don't necessarily see being ground ball winners as being the primary part of the role, and not like I would for inside mids. I look at it more as covering the ground in quantity over the four quarters with the position allowing for a flexible type of contribution where there are different ways in the position to be effective.

I have some differing views to the norm with what a role/position should look like. But key forwards for example I no longer view as needing to be 190cm+, now that forward pressure is so vital. On the other hand, I'd much rather an English or Lukosius on a wing where they have the endurance but then they have the height and other weapons that allow them to be a threat whether they're pushing in front of or behind the ball. Being on a wing, you're not going to have smaller guys who can defend/stop them from taking grabs and exerting influence which is why I like the running height with those marking and other weapons on a wing so much as opposed to inside mids who are forced outside because there aren't enough inside spots to accommodate them.

Knightmare geelong will have 3 first round picks this year, who do you think will be on wells radar this season to draft with those picks??

I see Geelong taking a combination of types and best availables. With Geelong's list aging and relatively speaking lacking youth due to the sustained period of success, I think that's the only approach he can take. A midfielder with one of those picks is about the only certainty.

Knightmare, Essendon likely going to the draft with our first (finally), expected to be around pick 8 - 14. Could you give us your top 5 - 8 or so inside midfielders?

Our inside midfield stocks are well documented.

Phillips, Macrae, Bruhn, McInness (Coll NGA), Trew, O'Driscoll, Campbell (Syd Academy) are those better inside mids. Phillips and Bruhn should be well gone by then but a combination of those others may be available around those selections.

 

[GUMBLETRON]

Is the Riewoldt/Richardson comparison still valid given they played ten years ago in a markedly different and less congested game?

 

[Harris 10]

Who are the top 2 or 3 rated ruckman in this coming draft?

 

[RedmanWasHere]

When’s your next update?

 

[Wild Bill]

2 & 7ish. Looks like a lot of inside mids at the top end. Not a biggest need for North. Can you see us going for Holland’s or Phillips? With Rawlings it could get interesting especially if a team like ess want to trade up for one of the premium inside mids.

 

[Mojorisin]

Thoughts on WA defender heath Chapman?

 

[Knightmare]

Is the Riewoldt/Richardson comparison still valid given they played ten years ago in a markedly different and less congested game?

My personal view is the way the game is played today it's harder than ever for key forwards for those exact reasons you mention with how defences set up and crowd the space in front of where key forwards would like to lead and how tall, strong and capable the majority of key defenders today are when it comes to 1v1s making life as hard for key forwards as the game ever has.

Why I like key forwards on a wing as a concept is they have the capacity to cause mismatches and cause matchup problems that just don't happen when they're used as a KPP. I ultimately see the wing for guys who can mark and have high engines as the best spot. With those stronger marks without the engines more your key defenders.

Jeremy McGovern is ultimately the model for key defender I look to with your Richo/N.Riewoldt in my view the ideal model for a wing. You can get them pushing forward or back for marks, and they're not going to get defended doing it. And they're also going to give you the bailout option down the line when all movement breaks down as required or in pack situations to increase success rates in those situations also. With the more running types and drivers more those I'd have in defence with those with the kick/speed/intercepting/1v1 capabilities those I value most in defence from the general defenders.

Who are the top 2 or 3 rated ruckman in this coming draft?

Riley Thilthorpe (more a KPF though), Nikolas Cox (really a utility without a clear best position) and Zach Reid (another utility without a clear best position).

Of the three Reid is the more likely to become a ruck being the only of the three being taller than 200cm.

Not an inspiring selection of rucks at this stage and more something had we had a season go ahead I may have seen a few spring up and push through as genuine ruck choices. But had we seen another year from Reid/Cox this year perhaps I would be more optimistic, but without seeing how they develop this year, as guys who were still very much developing players I find it hard to recommend them as highly as they probably will feature off the back of speculated upside.

When’s your next update?

There isn't a lot happening this year with a lot of the states not active. But I'm planning a piece for ESPN currently with something of an update of the state of play which should be online early next week.

2 & 7ish. Looks like a lot of inside mids at the top end. Not a biggest need for North. Can you see us going for Holland’s or Phillips? With Rawlings it could get interesting especially if a team like ess want to trade up for one of the premium inside mids.

The vibe I get is with a new coach is North is ready to undertake a rebuild and start again.

Logan McDonald as a key forward I expect would be strongly considered with one of those. He's leading the WAFL for goals. He'll go early if he continues his strong play.

Will Phillips and Elijah Hollands are potential fits. Phillips is probably the best midfielder in the draft and while North have a good and deep midfield, I don't see why he wouldn't push ahead of others. Hollands on the other hand while excellent on the outside also is a very dangerous and damaging general forward so he's a fit.

Thoughts on WA defender heath Chapman?

I see Chapman as a strong draft chance and view him as suitable for selection inside the second round at this stage. One of the better 5-6 WA prospects in the state and one of the better key defenders in the pool.

Could be a few cm shorter but good athlete, intercepts well and uses it well from what little I've seen of him.

 

[PMBangers]

There isn't a lot happening this year with a lot of the states not active. But I'm planning a piece for ESPN currently with something of an update of the state of play which should be online early next week.

The only state that hasnt had a couple of rounds of football currently is Victoria

 

[Knightmare]

The only state that hasnt had a couple of rounds of football currently is Victoria

NEAFL is also cancelled so we're not seeing any more out of NSW/QLD/NT.

 

[PMBangers]

NEAFL is also cancelled so we're not seeing any more out of NSW/QLD/NT.

AFL Sydney/ Canberra and QAFL are running with those NEAFL players running around in those leagues

 

[draftprodigy99]

any thoughts of heath ramshaw and rhys seakins from the knights?

 

[Knightmare]

AFL Sydney/ Canberra and QAFL are running with those NEAFL players running around in those leagues

Any game tapes or stats of those games available?

any thoughts of heath ramshaw and rhys seakins from the knights?

At this stage neither of the boys are on my draft radar. They're two I would have needed to have seen more of this year to form a view, but neither did enough for mine off last year's play to endorse either of them.

 

[briztoon]

NEAFL is also cancelled so we're not seeing any more out of NSW/QLD/NT.

They are all back playing QAFL in QLD. A lot of academy kids playing. One live game a week on YouTube

 

[Mego Red]

If they rate him and want a small forward...

He's only having an okay year in the under 18s.