Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2014 Phantom Draft

[RUNVS]

I desperately want Sam Durdin at the Swans because with Richards and Grundy both close to retirement we need a guy like Durdin a lot. I hope the Swans go after Melbourne's pick 3 in the draft during the trade period so we can be almost assured of getting Durdin.

 

[Phil85]

Hi knightmare,
Is it looking like Paul Roos' son, Tyler Roos is going to get picked up at the moment?

 

[DarlinCatchemnt]

Hi Knightmare.

Long time lurker first time poster.

Just looking at your power rankings I'm really surprised that Laverde isn't within your top 10.

While I happily bow to your knowledge when it comes to these matters for me he strikes me as a player that possesses elite qualities within his skill set that many others do not and with further development these could set him apart from the pack in future years and elevate him to A grade level.

As a Collingwood fan he is the player I hope we take with the probable compensation pick of 4 (5) we receive for Beams.

If not Laverde who do you think Collingwood should take assuming we go for a midfield/flanker type?

This is the first time I've read anyone actually writing that the Pies are now odds on to have that #5 pick, but yeah the likelihood is huge. I would be surprised if Laverde would go this early though, regardless of who is drafting. I really like the sounds of the kid, but perhaps that's the reason us less educated punters rank him a little higher than the recruiters - he looks great on paper. Don't get me wrong, he also looks great on the park, in patches, but mightn't have the consistency nor, as KM says, the decision making. I reckon a big part of his appeal is that 189cm tag next to his name. That's a "Judd height" and puts him a hand taller than the mids he might be competing with for a top ten birth (Pickett, Ahern, Weller).

As I've said before, this talent pool is unideal for a club that has a high, sub #3 selection, and doesn't want a tall (e.g. GWS). Assuming the Pies have their tall (Moore) locked in, this may become their dilemma. By all rights it should be Durdin, Wright, Lever, even McCartin, going in and around #4, but if you're drafting a mid on a needs-based agenda you're probably gonna take the likes of Pickett or Laverde a little earlier than they deserve.

 

[Albert Ross]

This is a good point. What if clubs cant get to 95% of their TPP. Do they redo their existing player contracts to do this? What if they cant?

They write a lot of front-loaded contracts, but this can be like bailing water out of a leaking boat. Continually overpaying praying that your team comes good or a star signs. Not making the minimum is theoretically the same 'crime' as going over, fines and loss of picks. That said no one will get caught going under, you can always write a cheque for $100k.

 

[RandB]

Have there been indications that Melbourne will be forced to use their 2nd rounder for Stretch?

 

[Knightmare]

Hi Knightmare.

Long time lurker first time poster.

Just looking at your power rankings I'm really surprised that Laverde isn't within your top 10.

While I happily bow to your knowledge when it comes to these matters for me he strikes me as a player that possesses elite qualities within his skill set that many others do not and with further development these could set him apart from the pack in future years and elevate him to A grade level.

As a Collingwood fan he is the player I hope we take with the probable compensation pick of 4 (5) we receive for Beams.

If not Laverde who do you think Collingwood should take assuming we go for a midfield/flanker type?

Laverde to an extent divides opinion. Some see him as a top 20 prospect. Others as high even as top 3. It's a very even draft at the top end which contributes to variety of opinion.

Laverde today is a classy, powerful and quick flanker. His mix of attributes are terrific and his numbers are trending upward which gives me confidence that he can develop into a good player at AFL level and that's why he inside my top 20. I just tend to have a preference towards high production midfielders who have played senior state league football and good key position players. It's such an even group that that preference by type can shift Laverde into the mid - late teens on my draft board.

With Laverde I'd like to see what he can do through the midfield. I know he can play well on a flank but until he takes that step into the midfield it's unclear whether he can play through there to an adequate standard as someone who while he can win the contested ball around the ground is not yet a dominant contested ball winner and then with some decision making issues (while better than he was in this area of his game) it will be interesting even with his evasive step to see how he goes with that.

Given those questions I would not be prepared to use pick 5 on Laverde who I see at this point as being best suited on a forward flank - where Collingwood have options with Broomhead and Fasolo both terrific. If Collingwood do end up with that pick from Brisbane and don't like the talls available or have a preference towards smalls given Moore likely gets selected as a father son selection I would favour Pickett or Weller as more immediate alternatives who probably overall fit our list needs with the clubs pace and footskill issues.

I desperately want Sam Durdin at the Swans because with Richards and Grundy both close to retirement we need a guy like Durdin a lot. I hope the Swans go after Melbourne's pick 3 in the draft during the trade period so we can be almost assured of getting Durdin.

It would take a strong trade to get pick 3. Tom Mitchell as one popular example I can't imagine would command that much given he has rarely played this year.

Durdin I agree would be a strong list fit for Sydney.

Hi knightmare,
Is it looking like Paul Roos' son, Tyler Roos is going to get picked up at the moment?

Most likely not. If picked he will presumably go as a rookie. He is hard but lacks polish at this stage.

Have there been indications that Melbourne will be forced to use their 2nd rounder for Stretch?

It's probable but not guaranteed until it happens. He certainly in my mind is worth a late first round selection so if he slips through that extra round Melbourne like with Viney a few years back now have benefited from the F/S system and a fortunate ladder position from a F/S bidding perspective.

 

[RandB]

It's probable but not guaranteed until it happens. He certainly in my mind is worth a late first round selection so if he slips through into the second round Melbourne like with Viney a few years back now have benefited from the F/S system and a fortunate ladder position from a F/S bidding perspective.

Interesting, thanks for the response.

 

[Cleric]

Hey Kightmare, not sure if this has been asked yet, but what are your thoughts on Baulderstones prospects in the draft? How would you rate him?

 

[Knightmare]

Hey Kightmare, not sure if this has been asked yet, but what are your thoughts on Baulderstones prospects in the draft? How would you rate him?

As a rookie Baulderstone is someone I would recommend clubs consider. There are no other ruckmen this year clearly better. He is in his mid 20s but I've liked his improvement from year to year and commitment to losing his weight and improving his game. Given his big leaps forward with each season I'm interested to see how far he can take his development and whether on an AFL list he can become relevant with a few years of development.

 

[Glenny83]

Hey Kightmare, not sure if this has been asked yet, but what are your thoughts on Baulderstones prospects in the draft? How would you rate him?

I heard earlier that Adelaide have not spoken to him...coming from someone at Norwood.

 

[Cleric]

I heard earlier that Adelaide have not spoken to him...coming from someone at Norwood.

Yeah you would think he would be ideal for us to have especially since we just delisted our other two ruckmen. Seems to indicate that we must be into either Giles or Gorringe

 

[Glenny83]

Yeah you would think he would be ideal for us to have especially since we just delisted our other two ruckmen. Seems to indicate that we must be into either Giles or Gorringe

Yeah that's what I assumed when I was told. I had been thinking to rookie Baulderstone would be an easy option but they know a lot more than I do. I read earlier this month that AFC recruiters were watching Giles and not overly impressed, having said that, the ruck selection will be a second string and predominantly in the reserves. I don't know that Gorringe would be worth a possible 3rd pick...maybe Petrenko?

 

[Knightmare]

Yeah that's what I assumed when I was told. I had been thinking to rookie Baulderstone would be an easy option but they know a lot more than I do. I read earlier this month that AFC recruiters were watching Giles and not overly impressed, having said that, the ruck selection will be a second string and predominantly in the reserves. I don't know that Gorringe would be worth a possible 3rd pick...maybe Petrenko?

Giles rather than a pure ruckman I see more as an ideal relief/number two ruckman. He is terrific in the front half and similar to Mike Pyke looks best when given those periods in the front half as a big marking target and rotating into the ruck. Adelaide have a better version of that with Jenkins already.

Gorringe as a previous first round selection while he hasn't set the world on fire likely will still take a second round pick to get which is what would need to be weighed up. GC definitely would not trade Gorringe for a third round selection in addition to Petrenko. Petrenko doesn't add anything to the deal with Gold Coast looking for more players who can improve their best 22 rather than depth guys.

Jack Hannath is a further depth option I could see Adelaide going for while you're on the topic of past SA boys to bring home. He might prefer only having Jacobs to play behind rather than Sandilands with J.Griffen and Z.Clarke also competing for games.

 

[Glenny83]

Giles rather than a pure ruckman I see more as an ideal relief/number two ruckman. He is terrific in the front half and similar to Mike Pyke looks best when given those periods in the front half as a big marking target and rotating into the ruck. Adelaide have a better version of that with Jenkins already.

Gorringe as a previous first round selection while he hasn't set the world on fire likely will still take a second round pick to get which is what would need to be weighed up. GC definitely would not trade Gorringe for a third round selection in addition to Petrenko. Petrenko doesn't add anything to the deal with Gold Coast looking for more players who can improve their best 22 rather than depth guys.

Jack Hannath is a further depth option I could see Adelaide going for while you're on the topic of past SA boys to bring home. He might prefer only having Jacobs to play behind rather than Sandilands with J.Griffen and Z.Clarke also competing for games.

Good call on Gorringe, as he was pick 10, they'll be wanting something advantageous and it really wouldn't suit us to trade with them.

Hannath is a very good thought. I'm in Perth and work with Michael Apeness's cousin. Apeness has built up a lot since draft and will be getting games next year, leaving Hannath further down. Apeness isn't a raw as was played up in the media. He just took 2 years of as a young teen, similar amount of time the Ablett Jr did at the same age...still entrenched in footy.

 

[TerryWallet]

Assuming Collingwood get Pick 4 and 23 for Beams and that 4 becomes 5 after Melb get 3 for Frawley.

With Lamumba choosing Melb does:

Coll Pick 5 plus Lamumba for Melb Pick 3 sound feasible for both sides?

If yes i have Melb with Picks 2 and 5. Brayshaw and Lever. Leadership and more Leadership.

Collingwood with Pick 3 and 9. McCartin and Moore. Best combo since Roughy and Buddy? With a Maynard, Blakely, Neal-Bullen type at Pick 23.

Make sense?

 

[theGav56]

Good call on Gorringe, as he was pick 10, they'll be wanting something advantageous and it really wouldn't suit us to trade with them.

Hannath is a very good thought. I'm in Perth and work with Michael Apeness's cousin. Apeness has built up a lot since draft and will be getting games next year, leaving Hannath further down. Apeness isn't a raw as was played up in the media. He just took 2 years of as a young teen, similar amount of time the Ablett Jr did at the same age...still entrenched in footy.

Apeness is the exact thing we need; a forward who can do a bit of ruck-work. Will make things difficult for Hannath. Post Sandilands, Clarke and Apeness is pretty interesting. I am hoping Apeness can force his way in at some stage during the season, especially with his ability to hit the packs. Mark the thing, or bring it to ground for Ballantyne and Walters. Either way will work out nicely for us.

 

[Knightmare]

Assuming Collingwood get Pick 4 and 23 for Beams and that 4 becomes 5 after Melb get 3 for Frawley.

With Lamumba choosing Melb does:

Coll Pick 5 plus Lamumba for Melb Pick 3 sound feasible for both sides?

If yes i have Melb with Picks 2 and 5. Brayshaw and Lever. Leadership and more Leadership.

Collingwood with Pick 3 and 9. McCartin and Moore. Best combo since Roughy and Buddy? With a Maynard, Blakely, Neal-Bullen type at Pick 23.

Make sense?

I'd prefer to have Mitch Clark for Lumumba.

Collingwood would be better off similarly in a deal with Brisbane getting established players over picks. Even if it means bringing a third club into it. Freeman, Scharenberg, Adams, Karnezis, Grundy, Kennedy and Broomhead is enough youth in two years to add. Moore this year also is plenty.

A full fledged rebuild for Collingwood makes no sense when Pendlebury and Cloke remain. The team is too young as is.

Sydney as an example may be happy to take Leuenberger and Brisbane's first round pick in a three way trade whereby Collingwood receives one of Sydney's midfielders. They've got plenty of midfield depth to cover any midfield loss with Mitchell in depth and Heeney and Mills on their way.

If Brisbane want Beams there are ways to give Collingwood the high level established midfielder required to get a deal done.

 

[theflea]

They write a lot of front-loaded contracts, but this can be like bailing water out of a leaking boat. Continually overpaying praying that your team comes good or a star signs. Not making the minimum is theoretically the same 'crime' as going over, fines and loss of picks. That said no one will get caught going under, you can always write a cheque for $100k.

Yeah that's what I thought. If your already on the low down then a A grader leaves, this can leave a massive hole in your TPP.

 

[fronkalicious]

Hi km

Who are the best mature key forwards from the state leagues this year?

Cheers

 

[RGpies]

Looks like your man Patfull has requested a trade to NSW Knightmare and Giants are favourities to get him. I know you would of liked him but it works in our favour still as Brisbane could package that up with pick 4. Sheils manager made it pretty clear he is happy a GWS yesterday, my next 3 would be treloar, hoskin-elliot and devon smith, what are your thoughts on them 3? Im assuming giants say boyd and cameron are untouchable. Trelour would still make us very young, but i think he already has the talent to fill in beams hole

 

[GreatSouthWest]

#58 GWS - Daniel Butler (VIC – Fwd/Def)
Height: 181cm, Weight: 79kg, DOB: 06/03/1996
Recruited from: North Ballarat
Range: 35-rookie
Profile: Speedy linebreaker.

#66 Richmond - Lucas Webb (VIC – Fwd/Def)
Height: 186cm, Weight: 80kg, DOB: 03/04/1996
Recruited from: Gippsland Power
Range: 35-rookie
Profile: Versatile kicker.

Hi Mare,

Without comparing DB to Ryan Griffen in end talent, would you say he displays some of the same traits in the way he breaks tackles, shims hips & kicks? I really like Webb as a point of difference throughout the fwd and centre regions. Do you know anything of his work rate mindset to make it at AFL level in the future. He comes across as a laid-back character on field, that may be far from the mark though. Cheers.

 

[Knightmare]

Hi km

Who are the best mature key forwards from the state leagues this year?

Cheers

Brett Eddy is the pick of the bunch and has performed strongly through the SANFL.

Looks like your man Patfull has requested a trade to NSW Knightmare and Giants are favourities to get him. I know you would of liked him but it works in our favour still as Brisbane could package that up with pick 4. Sheils manager made it pretty clear he is happy a GWS yesterday, my next 3 would be treloar, hoskin-elliot and devon smith, what are your thoughts on them 3? Im assuming giants say boyd and cameron are untouchable. Trelour would still make us very young, but i think he already has the talent to fill in beams hole

Patfull if he moves to a NSW club does open up options for a three way trade. He could be a piece used for one of Sydney or GWS' better midfielders.

Treloar I would love to have for Beams. He could all things said and done be a top 10 midfielder in our game. Hard to see GWS moving him as arguably their best midfielder.

Hoskin-Elliott is good but more someone I would consider as a secondary piece in a trade. Devon Smith same story. Both can play and are AFL quality players but neither are stars.

Cameron/Patton/Boyd/Treloar are the only guys on GWS' list I would look at in a trade for Beams as guys who project to become his level or better. Shiel would be that 5th acceptable guy on that list but I'd still slightly prefer Beams.

I'm as a third party overall a little more interested in dealing with Sydney and seeing whether they have any interest. They may get Leuenberger, Patfull and that first round pick off Brisbane. Would love one of their mids. Whether they do the deal is another thing entirely but with such a deep midfield with Tom Mitchell not even playing and Heeney and Mills going that midfield it's a move they could certainly consider to fix their list holes and improve their list.

#58 GWS - Daniel Butler (VIC – Fwd/Def)
Height: 181cm, Weight: 79kg, DOB: 06/03/1996
Recruited from: North Ballarat
Range: 35-rookie
Profile: Speedy linebreaker.

#66 Richmond - Lucas Webb (VIC – Fwd/Def)
Height: 186cm, Weight: 80kg, DOB: 03/04/1996
Recruited from: Gippsland Power
Range: 35-rookie
Profile: Versatile kicker.

Hi Mare,

Without comparing DB to Ryan Griffen in end talent, would you say he displays some of the same traits in the way he breaks tackles, shims hips & kicks? I really like Webb as a point of difference throughout the fwd and centre regions. Do you know anything of his work rate mindset to make it at AFL level in the future. He comes across as a laid-back character on field, that may be far from the mark though. Cheers.

Butler is a smaller player than Griffen, not nearly the same ball user as a below average ball user and he is not likely to develop that same inside game. He has something and in one of the finals got it out of the ruck tap, ran it to 50m and finished with the goal which is where I assume you got this comparison from. As for evasive tricks while not in the Menadue/Laverde conversation from this years draft he does have some nice evasive tricks as someone who can sidestep guys and run around them. He can at times break tackles and has some strength through the hips without it being something he routinely does or to a super high standard.

Webb I can't say I know anything about from a personally standpoint. Laid-back isn't something I'm so concerned with. Tom Langdon as an example looks like that, so does Jack Frost and Scott Pendlebury if you just watch their on-field demeanor. I'm more interested in if they can play and find the footy but then also whether they can put in the work which as a spectator without the inside contacts who can directly report how hard he works on the game, I can't say I have any information on this. With Webb I'd just like to see him find more of the ball more often and have more big games. But there are some bits that make him draftable with his long, precision kick and versatility.

 

[Suntory Boss Coffee]

Just wondering where Alexander Urban is tracking?
Started the year looking like a top 30 pick but has appeared to drop off slightly.

 

[Knightmare]

Just wondering where Alexander Urban is tracking?
Started the year looking like a top 30 pick but has appeared to drop off slightly.

His second half of the season wasn't as dominant as hoped. His footskills also have let him down. Lacks some pace. Just lacking that point of difference that puts him ahead of all the other draft prospects.

As far as I'm aware he was not invited to either the national or state combines so at this stage it seems against the odds he gets selected.

 

[Suntory Boss Coffee]

His second half of the season wasn't as dominant as hoped. His footskills also have let him down. Lacks some pace. Just lacking that point of difference that puts him ahead of all the other draft prospects.

As far as I'm aware he was not invited to either the national or state combines so at this stage it seems against the odds he gets selected.

Just looking at the stats and he was in the best in 13 of 20 games this season. I can also see that his ineffective kicks is quite high. Which is unfortunate as I played a bit of junior footy with him and his disposal was always really good. Might have something to do with added pressure/higher intensity at TAC level? Who knows. Hopefully he gets rookied at least.