Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2014 Phantom Draft

[Souup]

KM I was looking through EQ's draft whatever the heck name they call it this year on the medium midfielders and besides the overage guys so many are born in the first few months.

Starting from the top where Brayshaw and Petracca are both born in the first week of January. Coincidence? Overall I would've though by 18 things have evened out a bit but the collection of top mids stem so much from the first 4 or so months of the year.

Corey Ellis and Connor Menadue are two with birthdays later in the year. Has anyone studied whether late birthdays might represent draft value? It could be a reasonably easy study. Do you think 6 months of physical develop in an 18 year old is significant. I was just thinking if you have 2 players who you really can't split then take the younger guy, in 2 years time (if they are off the same work ethic and physical traits) he'll have closed the gap and you'll have a better player. Have you ever thought about that?

Recently did a study on this at uni and it's basically a fact that being born in the first 4 months of the year gives you an advantage until around the age of 20 due to the extra months of physical maturation. The effect/theory is called the "relative age effect", take a look if you're interested in finding out more, but it's basically a proven fact that being born earlier in the year means you stand out more initially and are more likely to be drafted. Although, when analysing a whole competition, generally players born in the second half of the year get paid more on average.

I've got no doubt the recruiters look at this, and have myself looked at guys like Duggan, Ellis and Menadue as players who could perhaps be great value.

 

[Dunny82]

Hey KM, long time lurker, have always enjoyed reading your thread on the way to/from work. How would you compare the key position and midfield stock between this year's potential draftees and next years?
I've seen it mentioned a few times that this draft has the key position depth but am wondering if the talent of this year's crop is better than what we could expect to see next year...same goes for mids.

I'd imagine for a club that has needs all over the ground they would generally focusing on drafting key position players in the draft as they take longer to develop than mids (not particularly this draft but in general)? Would this be regardless of the potential of the talent they see coming through the following year?

 

[Knightmare]

Hey KM, long time lurker, have always enjoyed reading your thread on the way to/from work. How would you compare the key position and midfield stock between this year's potential draftees and next years?
I've seen it mentioned a few times that this draft has the key position depth but am wondering if the talent of this year's crop is better than what we could expect to see next year...same goes for mids.

I'd imagine for a club that has needs all over the ground they would generally focusing on drafting key position players in the draft as they take longer to develop than mids (not particularly this draft but in general)? Would this be regardless of the potential of the talent they see coming through the following year?

Always speculative a year out.

But my prediction at this stage is next year will be a stronger draft overall. Certainly next year is looking like a stronger, deeper year for midfielders with (Mills/Parish/Keays/O'Kearney/Mathieson/Dunkley among others looking terrific). For key position players there doesn't look to be that same depth or top, top end quality of the top key position players (Schache and Weiderman are the top 2 and look like the first round talls at this point. I'm sure a few others will elevate their games between now and draft day next year).

Clubs when they have a mix of needs all have varied approaches. Generally early draft clubs go best available and fill needs with the later picks but there are variations on that. Some will look needs based and fit with themes through the draft to fill those needs. Others will go out and out best available at every selection. Otherwise will balance best available and needs.

Regarding building with talls first when you have needs all over the field. Generally if clubs can pick good talls they will because they are few and far between with mostly only those selected first round or even more often top 10 are those best ones and the ones you want. This year is a good year to do it with a top 13/14 selection with the depth of the talls available but more often it doesn't happen because you generally to do it need a high draft pick and a pick in a year where the key position options are good around your selection.

 

[fronkalicious]

Km, if the dogs end up with 4, 6 and 19 (not to mention 26 and 27), who do you think would be realistic, best case scenario selections for us at these picks?

 

[Suntory Boss Coffee]

Alex Urban has just won Oakleigh's BnF.
Shows that he is consistent.

 

[Knightmare]

Km, if the dogs end up with 4, 6 and 19 (not to mention 26 and 27), who do you think would be realistic, best case scenario selections for us at these picks?

For a rough feel for what WBD may be planning

4. Wright (McCartin presumably gone)
6. Durdin (Lever presumably gone)
19. Jarrod Garlett (Goddard/Marchbank at this point would be the hope)
26. Reece McKenzie (Tom Lamb or Kyle Langford may be the hope)
27. Daniel McKenzie (Corey Ellis might be the hope)

 

[Suntory Boss Coffee]

For a rough feel for what WBD may be planning

4. Wright (McCartin presumably gone)
6. Durdin (Lever presumably gone)
19. Jarrod Garlett (Goddard/Marchbank at this point would be the hope)
26. Reece McKenzie (Tom Lamb or Kyle Langford may be the hope)
27. Daniel McKenzie (Corey Ellis might be the hope)

Daniel McKenzie would be a good pick up. Went to kindergarten with him aha. Have watched him play a few games and he loves a dash. Kind of like Litherland from Hawthorn, just tucks it under the arm and goes.
Just wondering if you know anything about a jack mahon from Oakleigh? Pushed into the side during national championship and kept it for the rest of the season.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Just a quick question Knightmare , Geelong look like having 14 21 and 35 (unless we trade any of them), and while we rarely draft for short term with Christensen gone we have a big midfield hole so a focus would be getting midfielders who are fairly developed and could play early.

For me Bampton and Gore are two that really would fit that bill but I notice a lot of phantoms have those guys going a lot later. Of the realistic mid to end of first round midfielders, who would you rate on the 'most ready to play a lot of senior football in their first season' scale?

 

[Knightmare]

Daniel McKenzie would be a good pick up. Went to kindergarten with him aha. Have watched him play a few games and he loves a dash. Kind of like Litherland from Hawthorn, just tucks it under the arm and goes.
Just wondering if you know anything about a jack mahon from Oakleigh? Pushed into the side during national championship and kept it for the rest of the season.

Jack Mahon is a small at 176cm and hasn't dominated. Good tackler and has a go but more development is required before he is spoken about as an AFL prospect.

Just a quick question Knightmare , Geelong look like having 14 21 and 35 (unless we trade any of them), and while we rarely draft for short term with Christensen gone we have a big midfield hole so a focus would be getting midfielders who are fairly developed and could play early.

For me Bampton and Gore are two that really would fit that bill but I notice a lot of phantoms have those guys going a lot later. Of the realistic mid to end of first round midfielders, who would you rate on the 'most ready to play a lot of senior football in their first season' scale?

Of those non academy guys in terms of ready to play of those inside types.
1a. Petracca
1b. Brayshaw
3. Bampton (if healthy)
4. Neal-Bullen
5. Gore
6. Blakely

Bampton likely goes later than he should given he didn't play u18 champs or the second half of the season but if healthy he is the best pure onballer after the top 2.

 

[SumTingWong]

Jack Mahon is a small at 176cm and hasn't dominated. Good tackler and has a go but more development is required before he is spoken about as an AFL prospect.



Of those non academy guys in terms of ready to play of those inside types.
1a. Petracca
1b. Brayshaw
3. Bampton (if healthy)
4. Neal-Bullen
5. Gore
6. Blakely

Bampton likely goes later than he should given he didn't play u18 champs or the second half of the season but if healthy he is the best pure onballer after the top 2.

What's wrong with Bampton?

 

[V9x18]

i know its speculative, but who would be your early tip for rising star? i would tip Brayshaw, leverde or from a biased perspective a zac jones

 

[Knightmare]

What's wrong with Bampton?

Not a whole lot.

His form just hasn't been as exposed missing some time in the latter half of the season and through the u18 champs with injury. It's more just people forgetting about him than him lacking first round quality playing ability.

i know its speculative, but who would be your early tip for rising star? i would tip Brayshaw, leverde or from a biased perspective a zac jones

Brayshaw assuming he plays from round one would be my pick, but with Roos as coach he is relatively cautious in his usage of young players. Petracca is another chance and logical choice. A lot depends on the situation they land in. Heeney as an example with Sydney probably struggles to feature in the voting or even to play regularly with the strength of the Sydney midfield.

Laverde isn't so immediate and Z.Jones in a strong Sydney team while he will get some games probably doesn't play enough and in a significant enough role to be among the top vote getters, though I do like Jones' long term chances of making the grade.

 

[grundog49]

When is the next update?

 

[Knightmare]

When is the next update?

Usually late Sunday night I'll update. I have made minimal progress this week due to heavy work commitments so probably tomorrow night if I get more profiles done I'll start a new thread (which can adequately fit all my draft profiles) and go from there.

 

[RUNVS]

Here is a question Knightmare. Who is the best key position defender in the draft who is ready to go round 1 in 2015 that the Swans could realistically get with our 3rd round draft pick? Very random question there but with the trade restrictions placed on us we desperately need a key position defender who could in theory play well in 2015.

 

[POKsPies252]

Not a whole lot.

His form just hasn't been as exposed missing some time in the latter half of the season and through the u18 champs with injury. It's more just people forgetting about him than him lacking first round quality playing ability.



Brayshaw assuming he plays from round one would be my pick, but with Roos as coach he is relatively cautious in his usage of young players. Petracca is another chance and logical choice. A lot depends on the situation they land in. Heeney as an example with Sydney probably struggles to feature in the voting or even to play regularly with the strength of the Sydney midfield.

Laverde isn't so immediate and Z.Jones in a strong Sydney team while he will get some games probably doesn't play enough and in a significant enough role to be among the top vote getters, though I do like Jones' long term chances of making the grade.

Timmy Broomhead for Rising Star!!!

 

[Knightmare]

Here is a question Knightmare. Who is the best key position defender in the draft who is ready to go round 1 in 2015 that the Swans could realistically get with our 3rd round draft pick? Very random question there but with the trade restrictions placed on us we desperately need a key position defender who could in theory play well in 2015.

If the Swans want an immediate key defender other than James Gwilt who Sydney could have had as an unrestricted free agent Michael Hartley and Matthew Sully are the two best key defenders not on AFL lists. Of those Hartley is the pick of the two and actually a previous NSW boy and previous Collingwood rookie via the previous scholarship program. The lad was let go a year early for me having struggled early with injuries. He isn't a rebounder but as a shutdown key defender he's terrific and another Prestigiacomo. Either could be had as rookies and I'd say don't waste your time using a national draft selection to get either.

While he is also not year one ready Logan Austin from the GWS academy as an overager is terrific and has some real scope long term, late draft to be something. If you watch any NEAFL you may have seen him play some strong matches for GWS throughout the season and contribute strongly.

Complete coincidence there is a NSW connection with these guys but outside of those first two rounds and looking for immediate guys these are my picks.

Timmy Broomhead for Rising Star!!!

Broomhead is a genuine chance. His final month of the season I thought he was in our best 3-4 on the list, such was his strength of performance. He'll poll strong votes, no question.

 

[Yoda_]

Usually late Sunday night I'll update. I have made minimal progress this week due to heavy work commitments so probably tomorrow night if I get more profiles done I'll start a new thread (which can adequately fit all my draft profiles) and go from there.

You should create a player profiles thread and get it locked. use it as an information only tool rather than a jack of all trades thread

 

[Yoda_]

Many Essendon supporters seem to want Hugh Goddard at 19 (20). With Hurley, Hooker, Steinber/Pears/Gwilt confused I don't think we necessarily need him in defence and his forays forward have been fairly underwhelming from what I gather.

Can you try and talk me into why Essendon should pick him up? I'm struggling to

 

[eth-dog]

Many Essendon supporters seem to want Hugh Goddard at 19 (20). With Hurley, Hooker, Steinber/Pears/Gwilt confused I don't think we necessarily need him in defence and his forays forward have been fairly underwhelming from what I gather.

Can you try and talk me into why Essendon should pick him up? I'm struggling to

I think he's better forward than back personally

 

[dlanod]

Usually late Sunday night I'll update. I have made minimal progress this week due to heavy work commitments so probably tomorrow night if I get more profiles done I'll start a new thread (which can adequately fit all my draft profiles) and go from there.

When you open a new thread message us mods and we'll close this one for you if you want - avoid people continuing to ask questions on the dead thread.

 

[eth-dog]

Timmy Broomhead for Rising Star!!!

You misspelled Martin Gleeson

 

[RedmanWasHere]

When you open a new thread message us mods and we'll close this one for you if you want - avoid people continuing to ask questions on the dead thread.

I'd be down with that as long as a mod has the last post and locks this thread rather than doing it out of the blue.

 

[Knightmare]

Many Essendon supporters seem to want Hugh Goddard at 19 (20). With Hurley, Hooker, Steinber/Pears/Gwilt confused I don't think we necessarily need him in defence and his forays forward have been fairly underwhelming from what I gather.

Can you try and talk me into why Essendon should pick him up? I'm struggling to

With Goddard to an extent it does depend on your evaluation of your current stocks. Is Hurley even going to have a healthy season and take that next step? Is Hooker going to replicate the season he just had and continue to build on it? Will Steinberg break through and can he play key defence at the next level? Is Pears adequate? Then Gwilt is a short term rental. I'm assuming Hurley does eventually get healthy and take the next step and that Hooker continues his strong form so Goddard isn't a need.

With Goddard I'm not a fan of what he does in the front half and I'd be putting a line through him as a key forward. Key defence though at 19/20 if available he would for me represent superior value as someone who has the talent and want and ability to fulfill that talent to become the best key defender in this draft. I'd agree with you that Goddard wouldn't be a need in the Dons situation but if he is the clear best available I'd probably stockpile him too and then from there look to move some of the others over coming offseasons once Goddard eventually establishes himself.

 

[JPod_31]

Hi Knightmare, Is there any mature aged Midfielders (Replacement for Christensen) that Geelong should look at and would Cockatoo be a good replacement for Christensen? Thanks C2B