Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2019 Draft Almanac

[Wild Bill]

"Leigh Montagna has said recruiters believe stars Matt Rowell and Noah Anderson will be better than Walsh"

Thoughts on this from the Herald Sun? We are every chance for bottom 2 so please tell me there is a rainbow at the end of this woeful season!!! EDIT - read the previous pages!! All answered - cheers!!

Also Sam Ramsay - do you see him being a factor come draft time?

 

[Knightmare]

"Leigh Montagna has said recruiters believe stars Matt Rowell and Noah Anderson will be better than Walsh"

Thoughts on this from the Herald Sun? We are every chance for bottom 2 so please tell me there is a rainbow at the end of this woeful season!!! EDIT - read the previous pages!! All answered - cheers!!

Also Sam Ramsay - do you see him being a factor come draft time?

I did a post within probably the last week on how I rate those top end guys from the last two years.

I haven't read the Herald Sun piece (I imagine it's subscription anyway).

Anderson I agree on being better than Walsh, though I still don't subscribe to the view Walsh is going to the best from 2018. Rowell I see as similar quality to Walsh.

To quickly bring that one back to merge the 18/19 drafts in my power rankings I'd be looking at (subject to change):
Lukosius
Rankine
(roughly a tie and would need to sleep on it: Smith/Anderson/Green)
(roughly a tie and would need to sleep on it: Rowell/Walsh)
etc
then you've got M.King, Blakey etc a tier below.

All in all that seven and they're an even group. They're of a standard where if you start a team and can have them from now till the end of their careers, they're 7 of the 10 I'd see the greatest career value from this point onwards coming from.

Lukosius is conditional on a move from Gold Coast where stylistically he isn't suited - needing a shorter kicking, higher possession team that moves it more by foot so that he can get his marks. Rankine needs health firstly before we know who he may/may not be for Gold Coast. Smith while he is very good off half-back, he'll hit his stride if/when he gets minutes on the ball and can be better than Walsh when that time comes.

On Ramsay. He's a good piece for Calder. A draft chance and one of Calder's better prospects.

 

[Ralphyboy]

O'Neil I like. Will get a better feel for who matches up favourably this weekend + U18 Champs.



I agree that it's a much better setup this year.

Last year with the Div 2 Champs not televised or in Victoria I didn't see any of it, so the only exposure there was to get was from the U18 Champs. It's good to finally as a Victorian get the opportunity to them over a series of games to see how they stack up.



Had the stream of this weekend's Sydney Academy game worked I may have agreed with you on a few from the Swans Academy. I just can't going off the two games I've seen get excited about any individuals from a draft contexts just yet. Still have another week + U18 Champs to win me over.



Don't believe he has played a game yet in NAB League. Until he does, there isn't much to talk about.

Played the one TAC Cup game last year and was quiet with just 5 handballs and 2 tackles.

At this stage not draft relevant until he shows us something.



Particularly for the SA viewers. Who do you have on your watchlists?

For mine those I've liked from previous viewings and felt are draftable: Gould, Stephens, Taheny, Mead, Pickett and Finlay. Any others I need to be adding to my watchlist?

Thanks Knightmare, as you can see the Sydney based people are a bit frustrated. Thanks for acknowledging things are slowly getting better!


On iPad using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[goat123]

when will you be doing your next power rankings? any big changes made?

 

[Knightmare]

when will you be doing your next power rankings? any big changes made?

Will be submitting to ESPN this weekend.

I'm hoping my May Power Rankings will be up on Monday.

There will be new names and movement a plenty.

 

[THE_GUN]

Would you have any info on how Xavier Naish is going KM ?

Is he a possible and what type/style of player you project him as becoming .

 

[Knightmare]

Would you have any info on how Xavier Naish is going KM ?

Is he a possible and what type/style of player you project him as becoming .

Can play defence or wing.

Small and light at 178cm/68kg. Very outside and has yet to have an impact at NAB League level.

Will need to improve to get drafted.

He projects to become something like a VFL equivalent of Jayden Short.

 

[kannonfodder]

I did a post within probably the last week on how I rate those top end guys from the last two years.

I haven't read the Herald Sun piece (I imagine it's subscription anyway).

Anderson I agree on being better than Walsh, though I still don't subscribe to the view Walsh is going to the best from 2018. Rowell I see as similar quality to Walsh.

To quickly bring that one back to merge the 18/19 drafts in my power rankings I'd be looking at (subject to change):
Lukosius
Rankine
(roughly a tie and would need to sleep on it: Smith/Anderson/Green)
(roughly a tie and would need to sleep on it: Rowell/Walsh)
etc
then you've got M.King, Blakey etc a tier below.

All in all that seven and they're an even group. They're of a standard where if you start a team and can have them from now till the end of their careers, they're 7 of the 10 I'd see the greatest career value from this point onwards coming from.

Lukosius is conditional on a move from Gold Coast where stylistically he isn't suited - needing a shorter kicking, higher possession team that moves it more by foot so that he can get his marks. Rankine needs health firstly before we know who he may/may not be for Gold Coast. Smith while he is very good off half-back, he'll hit his stride if/when he gets minutes on the ball and can be better than Walsh when that time comes.

On Ramsay. He's a good piece for Calder. A draft chance and one of Calder's better prospects.

Hey Km, what are you thoughts as far as drafting goes on Calder Cannons 19 year olds : Browning, Graham, Kemp, and Fletcher? I see that both Graham and Kemp have been picked in the young guns game.
Cheers

 

[kickthething]

Question re NAB League. Who is the youngest player and who is the oldest player in this years NAB League? Is there a lower age limit at all?

 

[Knightmare]

Hey Km, what are you thoughts as far as drafting goes on Calder Cannons 19 year olds : Browning, Graham, Kemp, and Fletcher? I see that both Graham and Kemp have been picked in the young guns game.
Cheers

Fletcher is one to track the development of with that being what I'll be judging him as a prospect based on. Looks and plays a lot like his old man, but just isn't as good. Nice long kick and can really hit good targets. But other than having that and height he isn't anything spectacular and needs to improve a lot to be AFL relevant.

Browning probably hasn't come on as expected and needs to lift for draft consideration.

Graham is a good back who can use it well and provide some run. High character guy from what I understand and on the improve though still has some way to go.

Kemp drew some interest last year and was a strong consideration of at least one club but ultimately they had a player they preferred and took instead last year. He is another clubs want to see more of.

Overall none of them I'm all that high on personally at this stage and all need to improve a fair bit between now and year's end to be considered for my extended draft board.

Question re NAB League. Who is the youngest player and who is the oldest player in this years NAB League? Is there a lower age limit at all?

From the lists I have:

Youngest:
Jackson Bowne (31/12/02) Northern.

Oldest:
Cody Hirst (19/1/00) Eastern

Overagers can play NAB League (any born in '00 this year). Underagers are eligible and without knowing the rules from past experience it seems like as long as they're 16 at the time of playing they can play as you'll have guys two years away from getting drafted play later in the year.

 

[RedmanWasHere]

Knighta.

Quick little Mid-Season Phantom Draft crack please.

 

[Knightmare]

Knighta.

Quick little Mid-Season Phantom Draft crack please.

Will be writing a mid-season draft piece over the next few weeks.

Will shift some of my focus to mid-season draft once my May Power Rankings are finalised and submitted.

 

[Muffasa]

NAB League App - Not to be too critical as I love the concept by the 'live stats' aren't very accurate. Knightmare do you and or recruiters go by these are wait until champion data does theirs?

 

[Knightmare]

NAB League App - Not to be too critical as I love the concept by the 'live stats' aren't very accurate. Knightmare do you and or recruiters go by these are wait until champion data does theirs?

Champion Data stats are more accurate and the ones I use/wait for before reporting stats. eg. Budarick had 16 tackles according to Champion Data but only 12 according to the app. So there is quite a bit of variation in the stats sometimes.

I also find the NAB App not to have as many stats as I'd like with several of the more important stats missing from it.

Still a great starting point and great to have out there for the public.

 

[Jazny]

Sam Banks one to watch in two years time. Was still only 15 year old two weeks ago and doing this

 

[Michael Jezz]

Stylistically Collingwood I feel are the best fit for Lukosius with all the short kicking, lots of opportunities to mark and opportunities to lead up at the ball as the highest kick/short kick/marking side in the competition.

Adelaide more so than Port as the higher marking team is of the two SA clubs the better fit for Lukosius.

Clubs with top two picks this year will be in a great position - whether it's Anderson or Rowell. If I had pick 2 or 3 and I need a mid, I'd be making GWS sweat with a bid on Green. Certainly if Anderson and Rowell aren't there while most in the industry will disagree with me, Green is an easy choice at 3 and if Anderson goes at 1 and I have pick 2, I'm also an advocate of Green ahead of Rowell.



Smith looked good didn't he? Are people really sure Walsh is better? Spending a lot of time in defence Smith was good for 23d, 1g and had a DE of 91%. People will now be aware that he can find and use the footy. What not everyone will know yet is his ball winning capabilities and how explosive of a runner he is.

If the Dogs can clear out their midfield in the offseason and make a permanent spot for Smith through there (people don't know yet how much of a bull of a ball winner he is) I'm not sure after Bont/Macrae that he can't be that third best mid on their list. They'd potentially be better off moving two if not three of Liber/Wallis/Dunkley for players who fill more pressing positional needs. How about some forwards who can hit the scoreboard, some outside runners or some more guys who can use the footy? The Dogs are a remarkably unbalanced list that need to make some moves and approach some of the clubs needing mids about some players who better fill their own list needs.

English can be a serviceable - good ruckman. He's something like a Josh Fraser equivalent. Not all that strong or dominant of a tap ruckman but he's mobile and will be able to find the ball and has pretty good skills. Something that can be worked with.

Severely underating English. He is the first Ruckman I have seen who is like an extra outside mid. An exceptional piece of drafting by the bullfogs

 

[Knightmare]

Severely underating English. He is the first Ruckman I have seen who is like an extra outside mid. An exceptional piece of drafting by the bullfogs

Doesn't sound like you watched much of Josh Fraser who in that same post I compared English to. English is the same thing and still working to prove he can be as good. And more realistically English is more like Fraser without as much scope to have an impact forward of centre.

Both can find it on the outside. Both have the skills and mobility. Neither are dominant tap ruckmen. Their games are highly comparable though Fraser at the same age was substantially more advanced.

My expectation is that English will be the Western Bulldogs number one ruckman and as with Fraser for Collingwood 10+ years ago, English similarly can be a serviceable - good ruckman. The past three weeks he's become serviceable after a poor start.

 

[LemmingMaster]

English could be Cox.

 

[Knightmare]

English could be Cox.

Don't see him coming close. Can like Cox get around the ground and find it. But he's looking like he'll be anywhere near as good as a tap ruckman, contested mark, intercept mark or as a goalkicker.

If English becomes Josh Fraser, and I think he'll be close to. That's a successful outcome and a serviceable - good ruckman who can hold down the number one ruck post.

 

[Ishikawa]

I agree Fraser is very underrated. Had a very solid career and could have been a legend had Collingwood managed to snatch that 2002 slogfest of a grand final. He was especially terrific that day. Sadly people often seem to write off his whole career just because his career kind of petered out at the end.

I think English is going to be even better though. He's clearly the best ruckman drafted in his year and probably in recent years altogether. Will be a tremendous asset for the Bulldogs for a long time and highly sought after by other clubs.

 

[Knightmare]

I agree Fraser is very underrated. Had a very solid career and could have been a legend had Collingwood managed to snatch that 2002 slogfest of a grand final. He was especially terrific that day. Sadly people often seem to write off his whole career just because his career kind of petered out at the end.

I think English is going to be even better though. He's clearly the best ruckman drafted in his year and probably in recent years altogether. Will be a tremendous asset for the Bulldogs for a long time and highly sought after by other clubs.

Tim English better than Sean Darcy? I don't think he's close.

Same story with Rowan Marshall. He's the third best ruckman in the AFL on 2019 form.

I can't only give English third of the 2016 ruckmen.

 

[Ishikawa]

English is easily better than Darcy. Didn't think of Marshall at all, but do rate him highly and would have him neck and neck with English.

 

[Knightmare]

English is easily better than Darcy. Didn't think of Marshall at all, but do rate him highly and would have him neck and neck with English.

At this stage in their developments I have Darcy comfortably ahead.

English is the better on the outside, the more mobile and more skilled.

Darcy on the other hand dominant around the ball. He's a seriously good tap ruckman and his followup work is exceptional. He's a physical presence and is for mine already a better ruckman than Lobb who should be used instead as a relieving ruckman with his tapwork and followup work not as good as Darcy's.

The only query I have with Darcy is his rate of improvement which is only now starting to make me question his ceiling. He needs to continue improving and he isn't clearly better than he was in his unmatched first season performance for a ruckman.

With English. Where do you feel in his prime he can rank of the competition's ruckmen? I have him becoming something like a 5th/6th best ruckman in the game in his prime. Darcy I feel can be a second or third (though will need to keep improving to get there) and Marshall an outright third which on early 2019 form he looks like he already is.

 

[Michael Jezz]

Doesn't sound like you watched much of Josh Fraser who in that same post I compared English to. English is the same thing and still working to prove he can be as good. And more realistically English is more like Fraser without as much scope to have an impact forward of centre.

Both can find it on the outside. Both have the skills and mobility. Neither are dominant tap ruckmen. Their games are highly comparable though Fraser at the same age was substantially more advanced.

My expectation is that English will be the Western Bulldogs number one ruckman and as with Fraser for Collingwood 10+ years ago, English similarly can be a serviceable - good ruckman. The past three weeks he's become serviceable after a poor start.

Your judgement of tall players is poor. Read your old posts on Harry Mckay. "Serviceable" is a patronising term like good average footballer. He looks better than I remember Fraser.English is incredible with massive upside.

 

[Muffasa]

Champion Data stats are more accurate and the ones I use/wait for before reporting stats. eg. Budarick had 16 tackles according to Champion Data but only 12 according to the app. So there is quite a bit of variation in the stats sometimes.

I also find the NAB App not to have as many stats as I'd like with several of the more important stats missing from it.

Still a great starting point and great to have out there for the public.

NABLeague stats had T Green getting 23 touches v Murry. Champion Data (via Footy Live) had him get 37.... how do you miss 14 touches from 1 player!!!