Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2021 Draft Almanac

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Rainsparks

Debutant
Feb 8, 2019
82
22
AFL Club
Collingwood
For my upcoming May Power Rankings I'll be expanding out to a top-15 and I'm at this stage likely to slot Erasmus into my 8-15 range. He has earned it with his strong start to the season. With a late year birthday and being so far improved from where he was at in that little taste he got last year, his appeal is growing in a hurry.
Is Erasmus more forward or mid at AFL level.


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Dockeroo

Club Legend
Nov 1, 2019
2,444
5,150
AFL Club
Fremantle
I'd still be tempted by Jackson Callow who I liked last year, and would feel comfortable slotting in at either end, but with rate of improvement, Edwards is definitely one to keep watching also if looking for the combo ruck/KPF. If you want to go tall with pick 1, and it's a long term time horizon I'm thinking about, they're the two I'd be talking to my team about. And you could reasonably go one way or the other based on positional need. People slept on Callow during last year's draft and I get the sense despite his strong SANFL League debut that people again are underrating him, albeit he sounds like he's very much in the mix and possibly as high as Hawthorn's pick.
Hawks had Callow in at training with them for a few weeks at the start of the season but let him go, could have listed him there for nothing.
Surely they can’t rate him too highly in that case?
 

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philthy05

Brownlow Medallist
Sep 9, 2008
24,150
32,534
adelaide
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
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I’ve only seen callow play a couple of sanfl games but he doesn’t work nearly 1/10th as hard as a key forward needs to. Looked like he wanted to play key forward in the 80’s.
 

Knightmare

Brownlow Medallist
Sep 22, 2010
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Please tell me Mac Andrew isn't rated a top 20 pick..
It might be close. If you ask me to complete a top-30 today, I'd probably have Andrews in my 20-30 range.

I'll be watching for his rate of improvement, production and looking for how many different ways he can impact games as my three pronged criteria to determine how I rate him.

Very skinny but good athlete and early days playing some good footy and showing enough glimpses to have my attention.

Is Erasmus more forward or mid at AFL level.


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From what I've seen, he does have forward instincts (good at ground level but also an aerial threat), but if he can find and do good things with the footy as he is early season, I expect we'll see him play a combination of both.

Hawks had Callow in at training with them for a few weeks at the start of the season but let him go, could have listed him there for nothing.
Surely they can’t rate him too highly in that case?
Quite possibly. Can't say I have any intel on that one.

I’ve only seen callow play a couple of sanfl games but he doesn’t work nearly 1/10th as hard as a key forward needs to. Looked like he wanted to play key forward in the 80’s.
My suspicion is as a key defender Callow will find his spot in the long run.

Can a club trade future picks to climb up the mid season draft order?
No.
 

Great8

Brownlow Medallist
Apr 19, 2015
14,573
11,449
AFL Club
Essendon
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I’ve only seen callow play a couple of sanfl games but he doesn’t work nearly 1/10th as hard as a key forward needs to. Looked like he wanted to play key forward in the 80’s.
Gets frustrated easily when things aren’t going his way too. Instead of working himself into games he tends to be lazy and start niggling with opponents.
 

Knightmare

Brownlow Medallist
Sep 22, 2010
18,305
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Collingwood
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Just curious if you had to make a comparison with Bailey Smith in this draft, who would it be?
Only Horne and Daicos as mids could be in that same conversation for me from this draft, with both having a different combination of tricks.

Sonsie might be the more similar to Smith of those top end mids, but isn't quite on that same level for me.

I have mad respect for Smith though, I still view him as better than Walsh, and only behind Butters of the mids from that 2018 draft ahead of him. And that draft had a historically great top-end. So it's going to be really hard to get guys in many years to be better than a lot of those guys.
 

Turbocat

Hall of Famer
Dec 10, 2003
48,017
49,916
Newtown
AFL Club
Geelong
Only Horne and Daicos as mids could be in that same conversation for me from this draft, with both having a different combination of tricks.

Sonsie might be the more similar to Smith of those top end mids, but isn't quite on that same level for me.

I have mad respect for Smith though, I still view him as better than Walsh, and only behind Butters of the mids from that 2018 draft ahead of him. And that draft had a historically great top-end. So it's going to be really hard to get guys in many years to be better than a lot of those guys.
I wondered at the time ..if the could have traded P1 and still have gotten Smith.


As I doubt Geelong VFL is that strong... just what would that game say about the talent this year. Very under developed because of last year?
 

Knightmare

Brownlow Medallist
Sep 22, 2010
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I wondered at the time ..if the could have traded P1 and still have gotten Smith.

As I doubt Geelong VFL is that strong... just what would that game say about the talent this year. Very under developed because of last year?
In 2018, any trade of pick 1 down into two first round picks inside the top-7 would have been a decisively winning trade, with all those guys taken in that range unbelievable.

Geelong actually played a pretty inexperienced group and had a lot of more senior players not out there if you check those playing. AFL Academy were missing a good number of players also, but with the Victorian's not getting to develop last year, and with those missing players, it was a struggle. And I'm not seeing the quality of this draft as anything like eg. 2018 where we had a historic top end. I'm seeing something below average at this stage up the top end, without necessarily having to be awful.

This draft reminds me a bit of 2016. Top to bottom. Good mids up the top end, without looking like they'll be all-time level mids, and some different types. Considerable ruck depth (a number of those should go mid-year with 4 overagers by my count draftable) without any necessarily set to go top-10. A good mix of outside types and flankers. Perhaps there could be a few more reasonable KPPs taken, but like in 2016, that isn't likely to be in the first few selections I wouldn't be thinking at this stage. There are underdeveloped vibes particularly out of Victoria, and had last year gone ahead, no question they would be further along, similarly had they had better opportunities through the preseason. But they're at where they're at and when there are funding limitations, development will suffer.
 

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nelk boys

Debutant
Oct 17, 2020
57
79
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Only Horne and Daicos as mids could be in that same conversation for me from this draft, with both having a different combination of tricks.

Sonsie might be the more similar to Smith of those top end mids, but isn't quite on that same level for me.

I have mad respect for Smith though, I still view him as better than Walsh, and only behind Butters of the mids from that 2018 draft ahead of him. And that draft had a historically great top-end. So it's going to be really hard to get guys in many years to be better than a lot of those guys.
So for Hawthorn and our need for some top end midfield, what sort of mids do you think Hawthorn would benefit from the draft, with our current crop.
 

Knightmare

Brownlow Medallist
Sep 22, 2010
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So for Hawthorn and our need for some top end midfield, what sort of mids do you think Hawthorn would benefit from the draft, with our current crop.
Tyler Sonsie is one Hawthorn should look at around their pick if there and is likely that best mid available and the best all-around and the one who can really when he gets hot turn the tide of a game.

There are a good number to look at though who Hawthorn need to keep tracking depending on availability. Matthew Roberts (can also play forward), Matthew Johnson (taller mid with class) and Josh Sinn (has pace and good in defence) are the other good options who should be considered. Any of them could help, and Hawks should be able to get one of them. Josh Rachele I'm also a fan of, and he can play through the midfield, but very dangerous forward of centre.
 

nelk boys

Debutant
Oct 17, 2020
57
79
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Tyler Sonsie is one Hawthorn should look at around their pick if there and is likely that best mid available and the best all-around and the one who can really when he gets hot turn the tide of a game.

There are a good number to look at though who Hawthorn need to keep tracking depending on availability. Matthew Roberts (can also play forward), Matthew Johnson (taller mid with class) and Josh Sinn (has pace and good in defence) are the other good options who should be considered. Any of them could help, and Hawks should be able to get one of them. Josh Rachele I'm also a fan of, and he can play through the midfield, but very dangerous forward of centre.
Do u think Sonsie has fallen down the pecking order after his performance in the academy game at all?
 

Knightmare

Brownlow Medallist
Sep 22, 2010
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Hey KM, anywhere I can find the academy kids match against Geelong VFL? Hoping to see Fahey in action.
It was streamed live on afl.com and on their ap.

If they have a video section on their website or ap, they have may a replay on there with some luck either now or during the week.

Do u think Sonsie has fallen down the pecking order after his performance in the academy game at all?
The team got pumped by 100+ points. I wouldn't read too much into anyone's performances. No one starred, and I can count on one hand those who I'd consider to have rising stocks as a result of the game.

I don't see Sonsie's stocks being hurt much, if at all. I can't say at least on my draft board his position will be impacted from where I had him before the game.
 

Knightmare

Brownlow Medallist
Sep 22, 2010
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Your thoughts on luke Darcy's son?
Mentioned Darcy in my video as it happens.

I have him listed at 197cm, but if he's 203cm, that greatly increases his appeal.

Can take a contested grab and is mobile. Already looking capable as a key defender and has been competitive enough when used through the ruck.

If he's a genuine 203cm, he's a first round pick. I just have on my official measurements 197cm, 73kg, so unless they're outdated measurements from 2020 or something, and that may well be as I wouldn't have thought he'd be that light looking at him.

He's one Dogs will no doubt match bids on, wherever in the draft it turns out to be.

Wont North bid on daicos to help wipe out pies for the rest of the draft as per adelaide last year with JUH?
Teams including pick upgrades need to take at least three players.

Last year that number was two, but the Dogs still were able to get Jamarra, but then +1 more through the national draft (Bedendo).

Collingwood can still move picks around/trade to ensure bids on both Daicos and Dib can be matched.
 

Ppollen

Development Coach
Mar 26, 2019
87
112
AFL Club
GWS
Knightmare Thanks for everything you share on here, it's very much appreciated.

Did you happen top catch any of the Swans v Giants Academy matches from the weekend? Just wanting to get your opinion on any potential players coming through that you think might be draftable at this stage?

Cheers
 

Knightmare

Brownlow Medallist
Sep 22, 2010
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Collingwood
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Darcy kicked 5 goals on the weekend for his school (see link below), although doesn't appear the opposition was too strong.

I wouldn't read too much into school footy results.

Knightmare Thanks for everything you share on here, it's very much appreciated.

Did you happen top catch any of the Swans v Giants Academy matches from the weekend? Just wanting to get your opinion on any potential players coming through that you think might be draftable at this stage?

Cheers
Giants have one in Fahey who played in the AFL Academy game and he'll be the player I'll feature as my focus player this week in my weekly wrap on ESPN which should be up soon.

I haven't seen the Swans v Giants Academy matches from the weekend, but have found a YouTube link, so may check it out later in the week if I have the time. Any standouts or players you'd suggest I watch for? Happy for others to contribute also if they've already seen the game.
 

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