Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2021 Draft Almanac

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Knightmare

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Sep 22, 2010
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Bit of a broad question, but the cuts to the football department soft cap, how do you think it will affect recruiting and scouting? Do you think drafting and recruiting strategies will be altered because of it?

We know that the cuts to the NAB League will put it behind the SANFL and WAFL in terms of player development, but the other side of that coin is that surely there will be good players that will slide down the draft?
The NAB League will definitely be impacted.

On clubs though, they've cut staff, and no doubt their part time staff or a good number in most if not all clubs have had to be moved on, without having spoken to club officials to get a feel for exactly how deep those cuts have been.

Whether club drafting and recruiting strategies will be altered is an interesting question. I do think there will be relatively more overagers taken this year from Victoria, mostly due to the unknowns around those who should get drafted out of Victoria last year, surely there are a number of good ones who were overlooked. But beyond that, I think the splits of how many drafted, how many of roughly draft age v mature agers would be about the same as normal, and with those overlooked Victorians from last year, it's hard to see this year those numbers drafted from Vic dropping away, though there is the chance in the next few years those splits move away from Victoria. Why I'm still fairly confident on Victoria is a lot of the talent comes out of the private school football systems, so they'll still be churning out talent, it's more so the public school kids and those not in the APS or AGSV systems will be those disadvantaged and see their stocks lower than otherwise might in times past have been. I do think from a club perspective the accuracy of recruiting decisions broadly to reduce (slightly), with less eyes looking at the talent. In particular pertaining to junior talent given that's where clubs pump their recruiting resources.

Hey Knightmare, can you give me your thoughts on all the Carlton potential father sons?
Charlie McKay is the one who has shown signs as an overager to date. Not going to say he's likely to get picked, but he's the one to track with interest at least based on performances to date. He's a very competent ball winner and has been (not great) but good for Sandringham in his first two games for the season, and looks like he'll be consistent. He just needs to show he has some tricks and can be more than a just reasonable mid, as at this stage he's looking more-so like a VFL mid than AFL.
 

Knightmare

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Any club list manager who would hand over a top 15 pick for O’Meara has rocks in their head.
Hawthorn would be wanting a return similar to what Collingwood got for Treloar. With Treloar being a distressed asset, Western Bulldogs got him for below intrinsic value, but a deal along those lines would be roughly what I'd be expecting in a trade if one were to occur.

West Coast could use O'Meara through the midfield and need the good numbers through there, they just need to clear the salary cap space. They're in win-now mode, and their youth isn't anything that suggests they'll win with the next generation, so they could make a move for now if they move pieces. So a return would hardly need to be specifically in pick form.

Hawthorn would like to get younger, so if West Coast had a combination of the likes of Bailey Williams, Jarrod Cameron and Jarrod Brander on the table, they're the types where paired with a pick to make the deal work I could see appealing to a Hawthorn who are in need of a refresh.
 

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THE_GUN

R.I.P Shane Tuck 21
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I would give up a pick 15/18 as a Richmond supporter as we are in our window but with all clubs in similar situations the salary would be the issue
Pies are covering $300k and only got min return for treloar.

If JOM only cost Richmond $500k x 4 years i would do that
 

LittleG

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I would give up a pick 15/18 as a Richmond supporter as we are in our window but with all clubs in similar situations the salary would be the issue
Pies are covering $300k and only got min return for treloar.

If JOM only cost Richmond $500k x 4 years i would do that
IF dogs didn’t get Treloar last year, I would do that trade too. WC should do it too.

Additional:
The Swans shouldn’t do it, their current recruiter for u18 is too good, any pick he hits.
 
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Knightmare

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JOM is a good mid. Not great, but good. He's not a number one or number two mid, but he can be a good third or fourth best mid on a contender and make a team better.
 

GUMBLETRON

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He's not better than Yeo, Shuey or Kelly, far worse on the outside than Gaff, and not enough better than Sheed to bother. It would dump West Coast into the same mess you're suggesting the Hawks and Dogs trade out of - too many similar midfielders - at the cost of what future talent they do have.

Carlton on the other hand...
 

Chaisa

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He's not better than Yeo, Shuey or Kelly, far worse on the outside than Gaff, and not enough better than Sheed to bother. It would dump West Coast into the same mess you're suggesting the Hawks and Dogs trade out of - too many similar midfielders - at the cost of what future talent they do have.

Carlton on the other hand...
Will Shuey and Yeo be able to provide much impact for West Coast in the future though?
 

Knightmare

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He's not better than Yeo, Shuey or Kelly, far worse on the outside than Gaff, and not enough better than Sheed to bother. It would dump West Coast into the same mess you're suggesting the Hawks and Dogs trade out of - too many similar midfielders - at the cost of what future talent they do have.

Carlton on the other hand...
Yeo needs to show he can come back healthy before he is counted into any calculations. Gaff is best on the outside so I wouldn't count him in the inside rotation, or as someone who necessarily has to be.

Jaeger if West Coast added him would be behind Kelly, Shuey and Sheed. That's ideal. And if Yeo is healthy, that's a bonus for them. Redden can play alongside them. And you can always have a few of those rotating outside - presumably Sheed and Redden for some minutes to accommodate that group. Yeo can push forward or back for periods to allow for that expanded midfield rotation.

It just means with an addition like Jaeger that West Coast don't have to dig far into their depth stocks and worry about playing alternatives who aren't necessarily up to the standard.
 

legendstatus

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Richmond have Houli , Baker , Short in the backline
Castagna , Rioli , Aarts in the foward line
Prestia , Bolton , Graham , Lambert , Edwards

All above players 181cm or shorter

Think it really depends on the game plan and also the role they are required to play and quality smalls have always been an asset for decades going back to Richmond and Carlton mosquito fleet days.
Which brings me to my question, I still don’t get how they have 3 flags?


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app
 

THE_GUN

R.I.P Shane Tuck 21
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Which brings me to my question, I still don’t get how they have 3 flags?


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app
The answer to your question is very easy
System , Determination , Hard Work and leadership
having players with the above means alot more than 'individual talent' and physical size

Sure they all need to have talent and be good footballers but also have the ability to respect and implement the above mentioned
 

Knightmare

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AFL Draft wrap with a focus on Nick Daicos:
 

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RedmanWasHere

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Yeo needs to show he can come back healthy before he is counted into any calculations.

That discussion is never needed as Yeo has consistently shown he's one of the better players.

For me, Yeo is easily West Coast's most damaging player and most important.

I'd pick him every single time over O'Meara.
 

philthy05

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It'd be so typical for the Crows to miss out on Jamarra at pick 1 because of NGA rules only to possibly miss out on our own NGA (Blayne) 12 months later because the rules changed
actually if I’ve read the rules correctly they’re going to favour the crows big time this year. You can’t match a bid before pick 20, but with the strength of this draft oloughlin and Dudley could easily go after that.

from what i know you then get them cheaper than what you would have a year ago.. I can’t find the new rules but “matching with your next pick” was the wording. I’m sure someone here knows better and can either confirm or dispute that..

also 2022 it’s under pick 40 you cannot match.

the timing is near perfect for the crows.
 

Mutineer

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actually if I’ve read the rules correctly they’re going to favour the crows big time this year. You can’t match a bid before pick 20, but with the strength of this draft oloughlin and Dudley could easily go after that.

from what i know you then get them cheaper than what you would have a year ago.. I can’t find the new rules but “matching with your next pick” was the wording. I’m sure someone here knows better and can either confirm or dispute that..

also 2022 it’s under pick 40 you cannot match.

the timing is near perfect for the crows.
Don't agree, Isaac Keeler is one of the best 17 year old KPF prospects in the land and at this stage I don't think there's any doubt he'll be right up at the pointy end of the draft in 2022, certainly gone way before pick 40.
 

Peter Wallis

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Hawthorn would be wanting a return similar to what Collingwood got for Treloar. With Treloar being a distressed asset, Western Bulldogs got him for below intrinsic value, but a deal along those lines would be roughly what I'd be expecting in a trade if one were to occur.

West Coast could use O'Meara through the midfield and need the good numbers through there, they just need to clear the salary cap space. They're in win-now mode, and their youth isn't anything that suggests they'll win with the next generation, so they could make a move for now if they move pieces. So a return would hardly need to be specifically in pick form.

Hawthorn would like to get younger, so if West Coast had a combination of the likes of Bailey Williams, Jarrod Cameron and Jarrod Brander on the table, they're the types where paired with a pick to make the deal work I could see appealing to a Hawthorn who are in need of a refresh.
I think realistically that this year is West Coasts last chance to win the flag. They will lose Hurn at the end of the year & possibly Kennedy too. On top of that Shuey seems to have chronic hamstring issues & his future going forward is questionable & Naitanui is the wrong side of 30.
They have largely ignored the draft for the last 3 years & put a massive amount of faith in recruiting Kelly. Consequently they have drafted a bunch of 3rd and 4th round picks and as a result have limited young talent coming through.
If they continue to give up early picks for the likes of O'Meara then they will likely end up like Hawthorn are now.
I think they need to focus on getting some young talent through the door for the next couple of years rather than keep topping up with players from other clubs.
I don't rate their list as highly as many people do, their form away from WA is ordinary & you don't win premierships in Perth.
 

philthy05

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Don't agree, Isaac Keeler is one of the best 17 year old KPF prospects in the land and at this stage I don't think there's any doubt he'll be right up at the pointy end of the draft in 2022, certainly gone way before pick 40.
But I think a lot of teams will be in the same boat in 2022 and unable to claim good nga’s

not many clubs will get to pick up guys like Dudley and oloughlin for 2 3rd rounders (or 3rd and a 4th) in 2021...
 

woopy doo

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Hey Knigtmare. Watched North vs South in SANFL other week. Young kid in U18s, Hugh Jackson was everywhere. Is he a draft chance and if so what number?
 

GWS Goose

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Yeo needs to show he can come back healthy before he is counted into any calculations. Gaff is best on the outside so I wouldn't count him in the inside rotation, or as someone who necessarily has to be.

Jaeger if West Coast added him would be behind Kelly, Shuey and Sheed. That's ideal. And if Yeo is healthy, that's a bonus for them. Redden can play alongside them. And you can always have a few of those rotating outside - presumably Sheed and Redden for some minutes to accommodate that group. Yeo can push forward or back for periods to allow for that expanded midfield rotation.

It just means with an addition like Jaeger that West Coast don't have to dig far into their depth stocks and worry about playing alternatives who aren't necessarily up to the standard.
How is there a doubt on Yeo.
He is a terrific player. If fit he is at least in the argument as their best player.
 

Knightmare

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That discussion is never needed as Yeo has consistently shown he's one of the better players.

For me, Yeo is easily West Coast's most damaging player and most important.

I'd pick him every single time over O'Meara.
Nic Nat and Jeremy McGovern when they're respectively flying in my view are West Coast's best and most influential.

Yeo has been I'd probably agree West Coast's best midfielder. My query there is how he comes back. I think he'll be fine, but there are some who don't, so we'll see what that looks like.

It'd be so typical for the Crows to miss out on Jamarra at pick 1 because of NGA rules only to possibly miss out on our own NGA (Blayne) 12 months later because the rules changed
Blayne should be fine. As a sub 175cm, I wouldn't have thought he goes top-20. 20-40 is possible though.

I think realistically that this year is West Coasts last chance to win the flag. They will lose Hurn at the end of the year & possibly Kennedy too. On top of that Shuey seems to have chronic hamstring issues & his future going forward is questionable & Naitanui is the wrong side of 30.
They have largely ignored the draft for the last 3 years & put a massive amount of faith in recruiting Kelly. Consequently they have drafted a bunch of 3rd and 4th round picks and as a result have limited young talent coming through.
If they continue to give up early picks for the likes of O'Meara then they will likely end up like Hawthorn are now.
I think they need to focus on getting some young talent through the door for the next couple of years rather than keep topping up with players from other clubs.
I don't rate their list as highly as many people do, their form away from WA is ordinary & you don't win premierships in Perth.
Witherden will replace Hurn when Hurn retires. Allen will be the go-to-guy once Kennedy retires and Darling will still be there.

WCE won the flag without Nic Nat and Gaff, so you can never say never.

My read with West Coast is their youth for the most part is poor relative to other sides (contenders included) but in terms of contention I have West Coast as a top-4 contender which means you can keep having a shot.

The cool thing today is rebuilding isn't required. There is no requirement to bottom out. Look at Geelong post Ablett/Enright/Bartel/Johnson/Chapman etc and Hawthorn post Buddy. Teams can gain talent through free agency and through trade if existing talent isn't overpaid and there is cap space for additional players.

West Coast if they added Jamarra could and most likely end up where Hawthorn are now, but if they manage their salary cap and don't overpay and have room to pay for additional players, it doesn't have to take a lot of names to take you up. Particularly with good opposition talent ID and mature age talent ID as per Geelong with Kelly/Stewart and even now Atkins who looks like another since his shift to defence.

Hey Knigtmare. Watched North vs South in SANFL other week. Young kid in U18s, Hugh Jackson was everywhere. Is he a draft chance and if so what number?
Jackson could be the Jack Carroll equivalent this year. Different competition, but that good skill type who moves well who is developing that inside game. Carroll I had inside my top-20 power rankings, and if Jackson develops the contested side to his game like that, he could be inside my top-20 power rankings also. Jackson to give an early feel I could see featuring in the second round with a solid year. Doesn't mean he can't go early/later, but early feel.
 

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