Draft Expert Knightmare's 2021 Draft Almanac

[Knightmare]

Im kind of optimistic Rhett Bazzo will be available at Richmonds 1st pick, Do you guys see him as more a defender or a foward at AFL level
Astbury replacement is required

He played key defence prior to this year and was good, but went pretty well as a key forward v Claremont with 6 shots on goal. 8 shots on goal in the practice match also. Appears able at either end. Whichever end he settles one of the best talls in this draft and it would be hard to argue otherwise on early performance/signs.

All that can be said at this stage is that he gives you options.

 

[0utsider]

Where does Josh Gibcus fit in to this years key defender stocks and the draft as a whole?

 

[Knightmare]

Where does Josh Gibcus fit in to this years key defender stocks and the draft as a whole?

Gibcus was solid for GWV v Geelong. For me at this point he's a top 2-4 key defender in this pool. That might translate to second or third round if I'm to place him currently.

 

[Knightmare]

AFL Draft wrap with a focus on Josh Rentsch. Notes on last weekend's top performers including Collingwood father-son prospect Nick Daicos: https://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_...-josh-rentsch-charlie-dixon-forward-impresses

 

[Karma Train]

Hey Knightmare. Just wanted to get your thoughts on Charlie McKay? Is he a good chance of getting drafted this year?

 

[Knightmare]

Hey Knightmare. Just wanted to get your thoughts on Charlie McKay? Is he a good chance of getting drafted this year?

McKay is an overager and was eligible last year. Strong performance for Sandringham v Oakleigh is off to a good start to the year and will with continued strong play make him someone clubs may have to think about.

At this stage a draft chance without being someone I necessarily expect to get drafted, but definitely one to keep a watchful eye out for if he continues to play good footy.

 

[Knightmare]

Mason Cox

46

Mason Cox

Age

33

Ht

211cm

Wt

110kg

Pos.

F/R

Career

Season

Last 5

D

8.7

2star

K

5.2

2star

HB

3.5

3star

M

4.0

4star

T

1.6

4star

G

1.2

4star

D

6.0

1star

K

3.0

1star

HB

3.0

2star

M

2.3

2star

T

0.3

1star

G

1.0

4star

D

9.0

3star

K

5.4

2star

HB

3.6

3star

M

2.6

3star

T

2.4

4star

G

1.8

5star

the biggest beneficiary of the AFL's new man on the mark rules?

 

[ROYAL EAGLE]

Big call to suggest Bazzo should or even could be top-5 this year.

The top-5 will be hard to break into this year, outside of that top 7-8 or so.

Bazzo is still very lightly built, so he'll need to develop like crazy to enter that mix. For me at this stage he's a top 2-4 tall, but I feel like if he's the top tall in this pool, we're struggling.

He is as good a junior defender as Aaron Naughton is.
Can play forward and back I prefer him as a backman has that intangible about him all
the very good players do.

 

[bird_man]

Knightmare How do you rate the top ten this year compared to other years?

Is it an even spread through the top 10 or us there a clear 2 or 3 at the top and then a drop away?

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare How do you rate the top ten this year compared to other years?

Is it an even spread through the top 10 or us there a clear 2 or 3 at the top and then a drop away?

There is a pretty solid top 6-7 it feels like at this stage. And then I'm feeling a drop off. And my number one at this stage is fairly clear-cut, but a Johnson, Daicos or Sonsie could be among those who may draw closer to Horne by year's end.

There were some who impressed in round one (see weekly wrap for some of those names) who could break ahead of an Andrews or possibly Van Rooyen, maybe Chesser even, to break into that top-10. But I think as we see more games things will come together, as without any Victorian match play last year, I think with the Victorian's in particular there will be a good deal of movement on draft boards.

My early feel is this draft could be of similar quality to 2019. There isn't that top end ruckman like Luke Jackson, but it's similar in quality and similar in dynamic in so much as up the top end it will be mids/outside types/flankers rather than talls for the most part it's looking like at this stage.

 

[bird_man]

Also, who is the best key defender in the draft at this stage?

 

[Knightmare]

He is as good a junior defender as Aaron Naughton is.
Can play forward and back I prefer him as a backman has that intangible about him all
the very good players do.

Exciting if Bazzo can have a year like Naughton. Naughton was playing good footy at League level in his draft year and to a high standard at the level, hopefully Bazzo can make that transition at some point.

 

[Knightmare]

Also, who is the best key defender in the draft at this stage?

Possibly Bazzo at this stage, depending on which end you see him, he seems good at both ends.

Josh Gibcus is another good one to give you a second able name, though he's more of an outside first rounder at this stage for me.

Jacob Van Rooyen who is playing as a key forward I'm also interested to see in defence. I think he's got the game to adapt to defence, if not go even better in defence given his aerial and contested marking capabilities.

 

[Cleric]

Knightmare
Whats the chances Jason Horne gets overtaken as the number 1 pick in this draft?

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare
Whats the chances Jason Horne gets overtaken as the number 1 pick in this draft?

It's possible, I think it's just going to take an unbelievable season from someone else for Horne to be passed by, as those games I've seen of Horne, he's unbelievable and at least to me that clear standout at this point and without anyone else in that same tier.

I'm not seeing this Sinn talk at all. I think it's entirely premature anyone talking about him as a possible number one at this point in time. He's not in my mind a top-5 pick at this point. He'll need to amp up the contested side of his game. 5 contested possessions and 0 tackles v Oakleigh isn't nearly enough and doesn't inspire me at least with any confidence. I like hearing he has gotten stronger and put on size, but he's going to need to show he can go through the midfield and win his own ball to a high level to win me over if we're talking about him as a top-5 selection.

It's going to take a breakout year from a Matthew Johnson, or maybe a Daicos or Sonsie if they keep improving on their round 1 play. They're the three I'd say have that ceiling to contend for that top spot, if I was to nominate some names who might based on attributes in the case of Johnnson, or round one performance with Daicos and Sonsie, who could push Horne to some extent.

 

[LittleG]

Knightmare
Dogs still looking for a small forward. Needs to be high pressure, very quick and can slot goals from crumbs.

Weightman is too much of a high flyer, rather than a pressure/crumber

 

[weltschmerz]

Knightmare
Dogs still looking for a small forward. Needs to be high pressure, very quick and can slot goals from crumbs.

Weightman is too much of a high flyer, rather than a pressure/crumber

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare
Dogs still looking for a small forward. Needs to be high pressure, very quick and can slot goals from crumbs.

Weightman is too much of a high flyer, rather than a pressure/crumber

I agree with you and said as much at the time of the draft on Weightman and not being that ground level/pressure forward answer.

Dogs probably go with a large midfield rotation and have a lot of mids going through the front half this year unless someone pops up in the state leagues.

Sam Lowson is one early days to keep an eye out for, but there may be some other alternatives who present as we go.

There are some overage and mature age general forwards I like, but they're more-so marking types than your high pressure, ground level types otherwise at this stage.

 

[Boristown]

I agree with you and said as much at the time of the draft on Weightman and not being that ground level/pressure forward answer.

Dogs probably go with a large midfield rotation and have a lot of mids going through the front half this year unless someone pops up in the state leagues.

Sam Lowson is one early days to keep an eye out for, but there may be some other alternatives who present as we go.

There are some overage and mature age general forwards I like, but they're more-so marking types than your high pressure, ground level types otherwise at this stage.

Doesn't their Rebels NGA kid Blake Scott fit the need?

 

[Dockeroo]

If we rewound the clock back to draft night last year how much higher would you be taking Nik Cox?
looks like the real deal. Errol gulden also looking like a top 5 player in hindsight.

 

[Jen2310]

If we rewound the clock back to draft night last year how much higher would you be taking Nik Cox?
looks like the real deal. Errol gulden also looking like a top 5 player in hindsight.

How nobody bid on Gulden til the 30's (geelong) is crazy especially now (possibly clubs saw his height and was concerned). He may end up being better than Campbell, who went in the top 5-6

 

[Knightmare]

Doesn't their Rebels NGA kid Blake Scott fit the need?

He showed some signs of crumber potential. One to keep track of.

If we rewound the clock back to draft night last year how much higher would you be taking Nik Cox?
looks like the real deal. Errol gulden also looking like a top 5 player in hindsight.

Nik Cox is moving up my draft board, and certainly based off of his past two games deservedly so. He showed he was legit last night and backed it up again tonight. He's my favourite prototype as that tall wing with the endurance, skills and marking capabilities. His development has come a long way and he's looking terrific already, so I'm excited to see how he continues developing over the coming seasons.

Gulden is another who is making me look foolish. I've been consistent in calling him a round one, year one starter. And my questions were always around his long term upside and scope to keep improving. But at this point long term improvement/upside is looking pretty clearly irrelevant with how good his level of play is. I still don't view him as a top-5 player from last year's draft, Cox I might if he keeps playing this way, but Gulden looks like a bargain, very clearly worth at least a first round pick by any measure and he's someone anyone would want as a part of their best-22 already. I do for long term though have others ahead of him, but if he keeps improving it may not be all that many.

How nobody bid on Gulden til the 30's (geelong) is crazy especially now (possibly clubs saw his height and was concerned). He may end up being better than Campbell, who went in the top 5-6

Champion Data were big on Gulden, so I might have to go picking their brains more into how they were so sure he was my biggest miss in going through my draft board. He's that classic Champion Data guy who has all the numbers being him, but being a small who won less than I'd like contested, was a low volume tackler. I just wasn't fully convinced. I got cute in my analysis, he was already balling in 2019 really, finding just about 30d already in NAB League and hitting the scoreboard and doing his damage. So I'll be the last to be saying a bad word about clubs not bidding early enough on Gulden. The game opening up and being less of a stoppage fest definitely helps him though, but undoubtedly whether the ruled had changed or not, he would have been impressive regardless.

If I could have only two of the Swans from last year's draft, I'm still taking Logan McDonald (the real #1 from the 2020 draft as I called before round 1) and Campbell (he's a top-3 kick in the comp and has the run with it, so having that across half-back and if you give him more of the ball he can become one of the premier 1-3 general defenders in the competition if his ceiling is realised).

Maybe I'm still sleeping on Gulden, we'll have to wait and see, but as a 175cm, his scope to keep developing beyond this year is such a toss of the coin. I know better remembering the lack of development from Lewis Taylor those years ago winning the Rising Star, but then never taking any further steps beyond that. And I've seen too many of those stories with those sub 180s, particularly when they're not your pure crumbing forwards. But nonetheless there is still viability for those guys and enough to develop. And with the signs Gulden is showing, I'm fully expecting a far better career than a Lewis Taylor, I don't think there are any worries about that. He's by far and away the more damaging footballer.

 

[Davo-27]

How nobody bid on Gulden til the 30's (geelong) is crazy especially now (possibly clubs saw his height and was concerned). He may end up being better than Campbell, who went in the top 5-6

being under 180cm and closer to 175cm theres a concern players will get bullied out of contests in the top level, thats not warranted with guys like Caleb Daniels and Gulden ect, but it is a concern clubs have and rightly so as it does play out for the majority

in saying that i had rated Gulden ahead of Campbell and no one agreed it seemed, but with no footy being played in 2020 i had to drop Gulden down the order because of height and the unknown associated with that, similar to Daniels who was also a top 10 player but small in his draft year so he dropped to mid draft, i would say its an 80/20 rule, for every Daniels and Gulden you get, theres 8 smalls that dont work out, so thats the risk imo.

 

[eDPS]

being under 180cm and closer to 175cm theres a concern players will get bullied out of contests in the top level, thats not warranted with guys like Caleb Daniels and Gulden ect, but it is a concern clubs have and rightly so as it does play out for the majority

in saying that i had rated Gulden ahead of Campbell and no one agreed it seemed, but with no footy being played in 2020 i had to drop Gulden down the order because of height and the unknown associated with that, similar to Daniels who was also a top 10 player but small in his draft year so he dropped to mid draft, i would say its an 80/20 rule, for every Daniels and Gulden you get, theres 8 smalls that dont work out, so thats the risk imo.

Kozzi Pickett another example that height is no longer an issue as long as you have the tricks and athletic ability.

 

[Knightmare]

Kozzi Pickett another example that height is no longer an issue as long as you have the tricks and athletic ability.

When talking crumbing forwards, height has never been a problem at any stage in the history of the competition. Be it Eddie Betts, Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti. Or going back generations Cyril, Jeff Farmer, Stephen Milne. And I could list names all day. Height isn't a limiter or disadvantage to play the position/role. I don't believe it ever will. Pickett is just the latest in that series of successes by position/role.

It's more-so in other positions and roles height is a limiting factor. Doesn't mean it can't work. Caleb Daniel, Liam Baker, Shai Bolton, Dion Prestia, Dayne Zorko and Errol Gulden are all showing there can be exceptions. You just wouldn't want more than one of these in any other given line or you could get exposed. And those of this kind of quality are few and far between in these other positions anyway.

Do you have a view with the smalls regarding scope to develop once drafted? Do you see their ceiling as being lower? Have a shorter window to improve? Are you drafting them on who they are today? How do you analyse a sub 180cm prospect and determine whether they're worth drafting? Or do you treat them as exactly the same as everyone else and see no limitation cap as to their ceiling and window of time to develop?
I'd also be interested in the views on this idea from other junior talent watchers also on this one.