Kurt: Let's make a deal

[arrowman]

I'd like to explore what people (who know more about player deals than I do) think about what might transpire with Kurt Tippett next year at contract time.

Let me paint a scenario.
Disclaimer #1: I know very little about player payments so all the $ figures here are just for illustration. I don't pretend they're realistic.
Disclaimer #2: I'm assuming that if the club is dealing with KT during the 2010 season there will be no firm offer from the GC (they can't make an offer to a contracted player) but both parties will have a fair idea about what GC will put on the table.
So:

It's mid 2010, KT continues to star, and he's turned into a 60-70 goal gun forward and the centrepiece of our attack. He's currently on - well, it doesn't matter what his current deal is, really.

(and let's also assume that the Crows are continuing to climb the ladder, and we can genuinely see premierships in the future)

Uner normal circumstances, without GC In the picture, we'd offer, say, 3 years at $250,000.

GC are (rumoured to be) offering 5 years at $350,000.

So we might say: OK, 5 years even though we don't normally do 5 year deals. And $300,000. Which might - just might, given other factors (like premierships) be enough.

(I think the length of contract may be something that GC will work with, as well as money)

Or, we might say: 3 years at $300 (or $325) - and Kurt, what you're looking at is the chance to up the ante in the fourth year (assuming you continue to perform) whereas at GC you're locked in for 5 years. End of it all, you could (should, if you perform) end up collecting just as much at Adelaide over the 5 years. The only risks are (1) You have to take the club at its word about the 4th year onwards and (2) If you crash and burn, it (the Adelaide deal) won't happen vs having certainty (for years 4-5) at GC.

Any ideas from, as I said, those who might have a better idea about these things?

 

[seababoon]

if there 'only' offering 350'000.. we surely could match that.. especially with retirements coming up in the near future.. what would an elite player currently be on at the moment..?.. 450'000 upwards.. you'd think brad otten (not calling him elite.. just trying to compare a ruckman/forward) at geelong would be on 350-400'000 a year?..

 

[seababoon]

i forgot about the two veteran spots.. but anyways, how much is the salary cap anyway? and how much are first year players on

 

[marvin]

Hey arrowman - welcome back!!!

I don't know if there is the possibility of option years in AFL contracts, but if there is, that's the way I'd go. A 3+2 deal - a guarantee of a 5 year deal, but give Tippett the option to opt out after 3 years at his discretion. That way, if he morphs from a 60 goal a year forward to a 100 goal one, he can renegotiate - but if he has a Trent Hentschel-esque mishap, he's got some security. Maybe then you can do it for say 280 x 5 years (not knowing the real numbers) that if it works he can turn it into 280 = 3 + 400 x 2.

 

[WALL-e]

If he's a 70 goal forward we offer 400 K without flinching.

We'll be at him constantly with contracts, but probably won't get serious until Jan of 2010 after their break.

We'll probably lead with three years at 300 (on current form), and after months and months on back and forths with his agent and GC dirty attempts to steal (I believe they are unable to legally make contract offers, but no doubt they'll be in his ear non stop), We''l probably go 4 @ 400. Especially if he improves to 70 goal pace.

 

[jo172]

I'd be willing to have Tippett on par with our highest paid players in 2011 onwards along with blokes like Bock and Thompson.

What the actual dollar figure here would be i'm not sure.

I wouldn't offer him substanially more than blokes like Bock or Thommo though.

 

[Crow-mo]

the numbers here are low. player options are forbidden in AFL contracts, so you can't give him that. the Alastair Lynch contract at Brisbane was thought to be madness at the time, turned out to be a great bit of business for them both.

gold coast could effectively designate him their franchise player. much like Port tried to do with Buckley & Chris Grant. pay way over the odds, because the other advantages make up for it - if you do it for one special player.

Tippett and his manager will be keen to maximise their earning potential and a long contract excludes that. unless it is maxed out. in 5 years, he could explode and be paid under the odds - at which point there might be cap pressure to hold them back from upping the ante accordingly. they might want 3 years, at a strong rate, which allows them re-up when he becomes one of the leagues stars. 5 years implies they don't think he will get there. which no one is going to go for.

the bottom line is the GC can offer him the prospect of success - we can argue against that, but our recruitment manager has already made the argument for them - and they can offer him more money. if they need to, they can offer him a lot more money. and they can front load. plus they can offer to make him the face of the franchise, and he'll be near family and friends.

I've said before, we need to avoid getting into a pissing match with the GC, we can't win that. either he wants to stay, or he wants the best deal. if he wants to stay he needs to sign before the 2009 trade period. if he wants out, we need to look to do something with Brisbane. we can't let him run his contract out, as we lose all control and leverage. the only winner is an unsigned Tippett into 2010 is the GC.

He could do a knee or any such thing, and a player like that its easy to see how. lets call them the Paul Salmon all stars. very athletic, acrobatic 200cm players. we should make a strong play - extend him now, pay him a bloody good whack; 600K or similar, and start next year in 2010 through 2012. give him cash today, remove the risk of it all going wrong by adding a couple of extra years now for security, and allow him to negotiating his next contract at the absolute peak of his powers.

we need to negotiate with him on 2 fronts, the security now, and the real emphasis that its the contract after this one that matters most.

 

[Elite Crow]

Crow Mo you are spot on. If he wants to go, deal with Brisbane and get something. If he wants to stay and money will get him over the line, pay him the bloody money now. We have never had a big strong KPP who can mark. We have now. He may become one of the most important players in our clubs history. That may be melodramatic but we have had a heap of class midfielders and defenders, but not gun forwards, Modra & Jars excluded.

I dont buy into Reidy comments we should not spend over the top because it could rock the boat. If you were a Crows player and you knew the teams chances would be improved by having a certain player in your team, then you would want that player even though they would be paid more. Every team has their marquee players who are paid the big bucks. I doubt we have any.

 

[Jars458]

All this talk of Kurt being the GC's marquee player is way off the mark for me. They will need an ESTABALISHED GUN to fit that role. He will be highly sought after I am sure but I don't think that the money they can offer him alone will take him out of our price range, given we also won't have many elite players for the contract period we are talking about.

Any decision he makes will be made on a number of factors. on field, off field, team mates, work environment etc.

Without knowing Kurt perosnally and what factors are most important to him its impossible to say what combination of factors would keep him here.

 

[Crow-mo]

Jars, if you haven't noticed already they aren't getting an ESTABLISHED gun, they've already been turned down numerous times. the club knows that.

they also don't need a guy who is peaking in 2010; but in 2012 - 15.

Kurt fits the bill, and i think everyone appreciates that.

 

[King Elvis]

No homo, but the fact that Kurt is a good looking*, likable young lad will also be a factor - he'd be the centrepiece of their marketing campaign, and the face of the club.

*no homo

 

[seababoon]

kennedy just got a 3 year deal worth 900'000.. surely then tippett is worth more than 300'000 a season then..

 

[Jars458]

Jars, if you haven't noticed already they aren't getting an ESTABLISHED gun

Not sure what you mean. Has every estalbished gun signed on for 2011??

 

[Smoooothy]

i'd offer a 5 year back ended deal worth 375,000 for year 1 and a 9% increase each year. he'd be earning nearly 600K by the 5th year, and the option to renegotiate the deal half way through his contract.

plus hookers and blow

 

[jackster83]

This is how we will get him to stay:

And yes I do have too much time on my hands

 

[cmndstab]

This is how we will get him to stay:

And yes I do have too much time on my hands

Hahahahahahaha

 

[cammo84]

I reckon I'd even buy a Camira or a Daewoo Matiz from him if it meant he'd stay in Adelaide. That's just how much I really want him to stay here.

 

[Crow-mo]

Not sure what you mean. Has every estalbished gun signed on for 2011??

how many do you think there are?

they made a very public push at 3 or 4 of them, all of whom have said no.

what they need now, is a potential young star or two to dream on.

 

[afc1991]

how many do you think there are?

they made a very public push at 3 or 4 of them, all of whom have said no.

what they need now, is a potential young star or two to dream on.

Really?

I thought they had access to about 20 of them via the draft.

 

[Pietmans]

I for one will be very disappointed if Kurt is developing as a consistent goalkicking forward and they don't offer him whatever they can to retain him.

We have been 15 years searching for such a forward!

If you look at most sports, its the guys who can score - especially turn half chances into goals, that get paid the big money. Especially if, like Kurt they are also good defensively and can play multiple positions.

In soccer its the strikers who are worth the really big money, or those wingers/ midfielders like Ronaldo who can turn half chances into a win and 40 goals a season.

I'm sure if we looked at the wages of the NBA team of the year versus the defensive team of the year there would be quite a discrepancy.

For years we have been very good at getting the ball inside 50 but not so good at turning those entries into scores. Now we have some forwards who look like they could possibly change this in the future, and we need to hold on to them.

For me if Tippett gets much more than AA's like Bock and Rutten then so be it, because they can't go forward and do what he can. Pay him whatever we can afford to keep him. With that in mind it would be good to have McLeod, Edwards, Burton and Goodwin etc playing on and earning high wages (I know Burton is in a reduction this year because of the injury). When they retire those wages can be turned towards Tippett and the other young guns to keep them at the club as GC and WS try to entice them away.

 

[johnnypanther]

Crow Mo you are spot on. If he wants to go, deal with Brisbane and get something. If he wants to stay and money will get him over the line, pay him the bloody money now. We have never had a big strong KPP who can mark. We have now. He may become one of the most important players in our clubs history. That may be melodramatic but we have had a heap of class midfielders and defenders, but not gun forwards, Modra & Jars excluded.

I dont buy into Reidy comments we should not spend over the top because it could rock the boat. If you were a Crows player and you knew the teams chances would be improved by having a certain player in your team, then you would want that player even though they would be paid more. Every team has their marquee players who are paid the big bucks. I doubt we have any.

I for one will be very disappointed if Kurt is developing as a consistent goalkicking forward and they don't offer him whatever they can to retain him.

We have been 15 years searching for such a forward!

If you look at most sports, its the guys who can score - especially turn half chances into goals, that get paid the big money. Especially if, like Kurt they are also good defensively and can play multiple positions.

In soccer its the strikers who are worth the really big money, or those wingers/ midfielders like Ronaldo who can turn half chances into a win and 40 goals a season.

I'm sure if we looked at the wages of the NBA team of the year versus the defensive team of the year there would be quite a discrepancy.

For years we have been very good at getting the ball inside 50 but not so good at turning those entries into scores. Now we have some forwards who look like they could possibly change this in the future, and we need to hold on to them.

For me if Tippett gets much more than AA's like Bock and Rutten then so be it, because they can't go forward and do what he can. Pay him whatever we can afford to keep him. With that in mind it would be good to have McLeod, Edwards, Burton and Goodwin etc playing on and earning high wages (I know Burton is in a reduction this year because of the injury). When they retire those wages can be turned towards Tippett and the other young guns to keep them at the club as GC and WS try to entice them away.

Some good points up there.
I also believe that we need to pay a premium in order to entice him to stay - even if that puts his wage out of kilter with the rest.
There is an indirect or opportunity cost also to be considered if we dont pay him a premium - that cost is summed up by Pietmans above "We have been 15 years searching for such a forward!" - ie the cost is all those wasted draft picks/trades in the search for such a player.

In addition as Cro-Mo has stated well - we cant compete purely on a $ basis .......

The salary cap and our list make-up will play a huge factor as to how much we can offer (not just to Tippet but also to the plethora of upcoming stars we have in our midst - and to that end IMO the big 4 (Macca, Tyson, Goody, Burton) should go on for another year and then at the end of 2010 I would see at least 2 retiring and subsequently by either the end of 2011 or 2012 i would see eventually nobody eligible for our veterans list - this would free up quite a bit of cash in our salary cap during those 3 years (and with noone eligible for the veterans list we can reduce our main list by 2 players and replace with much lower paid rookies.

 

[Crow-mo]

Really?

I thought they had access to about 20 of them via the draft.

oh my... whooooooshhhh