ladder 2003

[X_box_X]

I'm just going to do an extraordinary estimation. There are always teams who surprise, therefore, you will see a few smokeys.


1. Brisbane
2. Melbourne - (Big surprise)
3. Port Adelaide
4. Essendon - (Will surprise a few)
5. West coast - (Will surprise heaps)
6. Adelaide
7. West Bulldogs
8. Hawthorn

9. St Kilda
10. Fremantle
11. Collingwood - (Told you I was going for crazy selections)
12. Carlton
13. Kangaroos
14. Geelong
15. Sydney
16. Richmond

 

[Portia]

Originally posted by Mead
I'm willing to put $20 down on the table that the top four will NOT consist of all four of Adelaide, Brisbane, Port Adelaide and Collingwood, in any order, if anyone wants to take the bet.

No-one would at even odds....they've only got one chance of being right, whereas you'd have the full spread of other options.

I'll put 50c against your $20 though, if you're interested.

 

[Tio_Ray]

Ladder at end of finals

1 Collingwood - Improved list makes them scary
2 Port - Denied for so long and will awaken in finals this time
3 Sydney - new coach may finally use talent of its players
4 Brisbane - tough side but will need few injurys with small list to cope with extra attention.
5 Hawthorn - has talent but prone to undicipline
6 Freemantle - they must improve and can
7 Geelong - young side but on its day...expects to improve this year (dark horse)
8 Essendon - if Loyd fires and less injuries, look out top 4
9 Adelaide - honest side that will go better IF carey can still play
10 Doggies - with new coach and backs to wall will lift.
11 West Coast - a proud club that needs to rebuild.
12 St.Kilda - Could finish anywhere with talent but no consistency
13 Carlton - will lift with less injurys
14 North Melb - honest side that is aging
15 Melbourne - usally fade out every few years
16 Richmond - Frawley will have to do something different

 

[SCRAY72]

This is tough and it will change several times before the start of the season but here goes nothing.

1. BRISBANE (Awesome,imposing and powerful, only significant injuries will slow this juggernaut)

2. ESSENDON (Lloyd,Hird,Fletcher,Wellman,Ramanauskas,Misiti,the Johnsons, too many guns not to be in the mix)

3. ADELAIDE (The Carey factor)

4. PORT POWER ( Skills and class, will challenge again)

5. HAWTHORN (Remember 2001? Injury free can return to those heights)

6. COLLINGWOOD (They have tasted finals and will be hungry for more)

7. RICHMOND (Johnson,Blumfield,Coughlan will provide Ottens and Richo enough opportunities to win games and rise again.)

8. MELBOURNE ( Even honest tough side, hard to beat)

9. DOGGIES (Knocking on the door)

10. ST.KILDA

11. GEELONG

12. KANGAS

13. FREMANTLE

14. WEST COAST

15. CARLTON

16. SYDNEY

 

[luthor]

Re: Re: ladder 2003

Originally posted by rumply
rebuilding?? not dons!

i think you will find the word is 'reestablishing'.

There's another club around (just bareley) whose President was fond of telling the world that "WE DON"T REBUILD"

We know what happened there.

 

[luthor]

Originally posted by Mead
From memory, it hasn't stayed the same at any time in the last ten years... anyone want to pull me up on this?

It won't stay the same again, unless an extraordinary series of coincidences come into play. There are so many variables which decide which team finishes where- injuries, player form, even what sort of draw they get- (a middle of the road team which plays the wooden spooners twice and the best team in the league once has an effective 2 game lead over a middle of the road team who gets their fixtures the other way round).
I'm willing to put $20 down on the table that the top four will NOT consist of all four of Adelaide, Brisbane, Port Adelaide and Collingwood, in any order, if anyone wants to take the bet.

You're a shrewd footy follower old son.

I won't be betting against you.

Anyone who does should want a LOT better than even money

 

[Mead]

Originally posted by Porthos
No-one would at even odds....they've only got one chance of being right, whereas you'd have the full spread of other options.

I'll put 50c against your $20 though, if you're interested.

er... you know, I think i'll pass

 

[ok.crows]

Originally posted by Tio_Ray
Ladder at end of finals

1 Collingwood - Improved list makes them scary
2 Port - Denied for so long and will awaken in finals this time
3 Sydney - new coach may finally use talent of its players
4 Brisbane - tough side but will need few injurys with small list to cope with extra attention.
5 Hawthorn - has talent but prone to undicipline
6 Freemantle - they must improve and can
7 Geelong - young side but on its day...expects to improve this year (dark horse)
8 Essendon - if Loyd fires and less injuries, look out top 4
9 Adelaide - honest side that will go better IF carey can still play

I'm really curious here, I really am.

Suppose Carey does not manage one single game for Adelaide in 2003. That would make exactly the same number of games for Adelaide that Carey played in 2002, when Adelaide finished two games clear in third spot.

So, getting Carey is going to make Adelaide drop to 9th unless Carey can still play?

How so? On what planet does this logic actually apply? I mean, the Crows GAIN two players rated in the first 22 over last year and they are going to DROP six places? For f**k sake, why?

Alternatively, you might like to explain how the Pies have improved their list, and Adelaide have not?

Really, I am just so very very curious here at how people arrive at some of these predictions.

 

[Kenny_01]

Originally posted by ok.crows
I'm really curious here, I really am.

Suppose Carey does not manage one single game for Adelaide in 2003. That would make exactly the same number of games for Adelaide that Carey played in 2002, when Adelaide finished two games clear in third spot.

So, getting Carey is going to make Adelaide drop to 9th unless Carey can still play?

How so? On what planet does this logic actually apply? I mean, the Crows GAIN two players rated in the first 22 over last year and they are going to DROP six places? For f**k sake, why?

Alternatively, you might like to explain how the Pies have improved their list, and Adelaide have not?

Really, I am just so very very curious here at how people arrive at some of these predictions.

What does your top 8 look like ok.crows? I am sure fans from opposition sides can say the same thing you're saying, about your 8. You can't please everyone. Get over it.

 

[Thrawn]

Originally posted by ok.crows
I'm really curious here, I really am.

Suppose Carey does not manage one single game for Adelaide in 2003. That would make exactly the same number of games for Adelaide that Carey played in 2002, when Adelaide finished two games clear in third spot.

So, getting Carey is going to make Adelaide drop to 9th unless Carey can still play?

How so? On what planet does this logic actually apply? I mean, the Crows GAIN two players rated in the first 22 over last year and they are going to DROP six places? For f**k sake, why?

Alternatively, you might like to explain how the Pies have improved their list, and Adelaide have not?

Really, I am just so very very curious here at how people arrive at some of these predictions.

These sort of things happen every year. Teams can either drop due to poor form and/or injuries, or teams can rise due to great form, and lack of injuries. You really shouldn't complain... as these are merely predictions that almost always get proved wrong in the near future anyway. Why do you think I am not complaining that a lot of people in this thread are putting Carlton down for the wooden spoon?

A lot of people and so called "experts" can't predict logically, I agree with you. Most tend to go with how the year will look for these teams in terms of previous form, trades, etc. but realistically you cannot do that. Most ladders that are predicted now will end up being wrong by season's end next year. You can never be certain with these things.

 

[ok.crows]

Originally posted by Kenny_01
What does your top 8 look like ok.crows? I am sure fans from opposition sides can say the same thing you're saying, about your 8. You can't please everyone. Get over it.

I personally think it is way too early to predict a top 8, but if I were to do it seriously I would look at how teams went in 2002, normalise them a little to up-rate those teams who had a unusually heavy injury load, and adjust it further if any teams have actually gained or lost any proven "first 22" players from/to other clubs.

I'd look at teams who have very inexperienced lists (say by looking at #players who have less than say 20 games), and de-rate those, but for teams with a fair number of players with just over say 50 games - I'd boost their rating a little since those players have now got the tempo of AFL and can be expected to be better for the experience but still young & fit.

I'd also de-rate teams whose coaches don't have much experience, or teams whose coaches are new to the club or who don't have a good win/loss ratio.

Finally, I'd adjust it so that no team changed ladder position by more than about five spots - since such a shift is exceptional - unless there were a whole host of factors indicating a very radical change in form.

None of that would yeild a drop of six ladder places for the Crows (in fact I'm struggling to find even one real negative), nor can you justify any massive climb up the ladder for Sydney or Hawthorn (where are their enormous gains?), although a fair rise for Geelong is not unreasonable.

Other factors to be considered are club stability & politics, and if a club has been improving lately or sliding.

Finally you will note that a lot of posters have kept the same top 4 as this year. While history says that is very unlikely, I hesitate to guess which of the top 4 would in fact slide - Brisbane I would suspect to be at least a little saited, Port fairly desperate to shake their "can't do finals" tag, Adelaide are clearly expecting to give the flag a really solid go next season and Collingwood may or may not expect it all to just happen again for them.

So, err, (without actually having done that as described above, but anyway) if you did it then surely it would work out roughly something like:

1 Port
2 Crows
3 Brisbane
4 Melbourne
5 Collingwood
6 Geelong
7 Essendon
and a roughie, 8 Richmond

... but with the caveat that I think the last few spots could eaily be raffled between West Coast, Freo, Saints, Hawks, Kangaroos or Doggies. Oh, and just about any team is liable to surprise.

We just won't have any real inkling until at least the Wizard Cup and probably not until round 5 or so.

However ... maybe there is some sense at least with proposing something at least that stays within at least credible odds of happening.

 

[ok.crows]

Originally posted by Thrawn
These sort of things happen every year. Teams can either drop due to poor form and/or injuries, or teams can rise due to great form, and lack of injuries. You really shouldn't complain... as these are merely predictions that almost always get proved wrong in the near future anyway. Why do you think I am not complaining that a lot of people in this thread are putting Carlton down for the wooden spoon?

A lot of people and so called "experts" can't predict logically, I agree with you. Most tend to go with how the year will look for these teams in terms of previous form, trades, etc. but realistically you cannot do that. Most ladders that are predicted now will end up being wrong by season's end next year. You can never be certain with these things.

Yes, you are 100% correct, you just cannot predict these things. I agree totally.

I guess my gripe is, even if you do it just for fun, why not put down at least something with some sort of justification or reality attached to it, something that at least vaguely resembles the odds of what eventually does pan out.

Putting something down with six or seven wild-ass improbables in it just doesn't make much sense to me.

But once again you are right - I suppose there is absolutely no law that people have to be sensible.

 

[Leigh Roy]

Not going to give a ladder, just going to say briefly how I think some teams will go.

Saints will go great guns. As will the Magpies. Lions will have a slump. Dons will crash down further. Blues will surprise everybody. Port will do about the same as they did this year. The Hawks will tread water around the bottom of the eight. So will the Swans. And Freo. West Coast will be a contender for sure. The Doggies shall do the same. The Cats will do what they did this year, but not burn themselves out. The Roos will be fighting around the bottom four of the eight. The Dees will succumb to the odd-number year. I hope the Tigers do great.

As for the Crows, well!

 

[Dan26]

There are always a few smokies and a few unexpected teams that emerge, so I have gone for a ladder that doesn't much resemble the 2002 version. Most years this is the correct approach.


LADDER AFTER ROUND 22

1.COLLINGWOOD
2.PORT ADELAIDE
3.MELBOURNE
4.CARLTON
5.ESSENDON
6.BRISBANE
7.GEELONG
8.ADELAIDE
9.West Coast
10.Fremantle
11.Sydney
12.Richmond
13.St.Kilda
14.Hawthorn
15.Western Bulldogs
16.Kangaroos

FINALS
1st week
1st Qualifying Final: Carlton def Collingwood (MCG)
2nd Qualifying Final: Port Adelaide def Melbourne (AAMI Stadium)
1st Elimination Final: Essendon def Adelaide (Telstra Dome)
2nd Elimination Final: Brisbane def Geelong (Gabba)

2nd week
1st Semi Final: Essendon def Collingwood (MCG)
2nd Semi Final: Melbourne def Brisbane (MCG)

3rd week
1st Preliminary Final: Melbourne def Carlton (MCG)
1st Qualifying Final: Port Adelaide def Essendon (AAMI Stadium)

4th week
Grand Final:
Melbourne def Port Adelaide



PREMIERS 2003: MELBOURNE

 

[X_box_X]

Originally posted by Dan26
14.Hawthorn
15.Western Bulldogs
16.Kangaroos
[/B]

This is not 1925, '26 or'27, Dan

 

[Dan26]

Originally posted by X_box_X
This is not 1925, '26 or'27, Dan

lol. I didn't even realise the irony! Good pick up xie!

 

[MightySaint]

I'll have a go.

1) Port - Good list, topped up very well with drafting and trading. Wilson will be a gun recruit.

2) Essendon - Still a class team, IMO. Excellent defence, excellent forward line. Had injuries, but still performed well, which is a very good sign.

3) Brisbane - A bit like the Lakers, in that they'll probably cruise into the finals and then hit over-drive once they get there.

4) WCE - Good defence and midfield of Cousins, Kerr, Judd, Gardiner etc is top notch.

5) Adelaide - An awesome midfield, which will look even better if Carey stands up. Not sure about the defence (pretty good last year, just not convinced player wise), although it won't be an issue if the midfield plays to potential.

6) Maggies - Evenly spread TEAM, but can't see them reaching the heights of 2002 in 2003

7) St.Kilda - About time really

8) North - Been stung by them too many times. Will keep proving the doubters wrong. Also, young players are pretty impressive.

9) Melbourne - Somebody had to miss out. Not a fan of the (IMO) lack of quality tall options in defence.

10) Hawks - Good list, but based on last year, a bit inconsistent.

11) Bullies - Lack of quality tall defensive options will kill them.

12) Geelong - I tried to put them higher, but couldn't squeeze anyone else out. Looks to me like the Cats are drafting a lot of midfielders (ala Port), who they will play all over the ground.

13) Freo - Have to learn to win away. Definitely have the team on paper to make the finals.

14) Sydney - Young players have not shown too much yet, but it is early days. Replacing Dunkley and Kelly will be very tough. Saddington needs to have a breakthrough year where he establishes himself as one of the premier CHB's in the comp.

15) Richmond - Just a feeling I have

16) Carlton - Not even Pagan can save them.

Geez, that was TOUGH. IMO, any one of the top 13 can make the finals. Some teams, like Hawthorn for example, should make the eight, but I could not squeeze them in ahead of anyone else. Anyway, it is still early. Your team's star might do his knee in January, and instead of a comfortable top 8 spot, you could be praying just to be thereabouts. Opinions?

 

[CowboyFromHell]

Originally posted by Dan26
There are always a few smokies and a few unexpected teams that emerge, so I have gone for a ladder that doesn't much resemble the 2002 version. Most years this is the correct approach.


LADDER AFTER ROUND 22

1.COLLINGWOOD
2.PORT ADELAIDE
3.MELBOURNE
4.CARLTON
5.ESSENDON
6.BRISBANE
7.GEELONG
8.ADELAIDE
9.West Coast
10.Fremantle
11.Sydney
12.Richmond
13.St.Kilda
14.Hawthorn
15.Western Bulldogs
16.Kangaroos

FINALS
1st week
1st Qualifying Final: Carlton def Collingwood (MCG)
2nd Qualifying Final: Port Adelaide def Melbourne (AAMI Stadium)
1st Elimination Final: Essendon def Adelaide (Telstra Dome)
2nd Elimination Final: Brisbane def Geelong (Gabba)

2nd week
1st Semi Final: Essendon def Collingwood (MCG)
2nd Semi Final: Melbourne def Brisbane (MCG)

3rd week
1st Preliminary Final: Melbourne def Carlton (MCG)
1st Qualifying Final: Port Adelaide def Essendon (AAMI Stadium)

4th week
Grand Final:
Melbourne def Port Adelaide



PREMIERS 2003: MELBOURNE

I'm looking forward to the 2003 season already Dan!

 

[rumply]

Re: Re: Re: ladder 2003

Originally posted by luthor
There's another club around (just bareley) whose President was fond of telling the world that "WE DON"T REBUILD"

We know what happened there.

i dont seem to remember anyone at essendon saying that, & i would think it would be useful to have a reason to embark on the 'rebuilding' of a side, & at this time i cannot think of a reason that would require the dons to head down that path.

 

[roostersgal4eva]

*giggles @ how ppl are not giving brizie a chance of a 3-peat*

1. Brisbane (16-18 wins) (by an absolute mile)
2. Port Adelaide (14-16) (hope not though)
3. Adelaide (13-15)(Carey will be good
4. Collingwood (13-15)
5. Hawthorn (12-14)
6. West Coast (11-14)
7. Fremantle (11-14)
8. Essendon

9. Melbourne (11-12)
10. Kangaroos (10-11)
11. Geelong (10-11)
12. St Kilda (10-11)
13. Sydney (10-11)
14. Richmond (6-8)
15. Western Bulldogs (4-6)
16 Carlton (4-6)

 

[Zombie]

Originally posted by roostersgal4eva
*giggles @ how ppl are not giving brizie a chance of a 3-peat*

* giggles @ how much of a bandwagoner you are

 

[Aussie Jones18]

1. Brisbane

2. Port

3. Collingwood

4. Essendon

5. St kilda ( as posted before, About time )

6. kangaroos

7. Fremantle ( if they can win 1 or 2 away from home )

8. Bulldogs ( Have a great team

--------------------------------------------------------------------

9. Adelaide ( looking for Carey too much )

10. Sydney

11. Melbourne

12. Geelong

13. West coast

14. Hawthorn

15. Richmond

16 Carlton



Will be a bit like this year.. The ladder should be tight with no real easy beat team....

What do you all think about the pre season rules they are pretty cr@p if u ask me.

 

[moomba]

Originally posted by ok.crows
How so? On what planet does this logic actually apply? I mean, the Crows GAIN two players rated in the first 22 over last year and they are going to DROP six places? For f**k sake, why?

Alternatively, you might like to explain how the Pies have improved their list, and Adelaide have not?

Really, I am just so very very curious here at how people arrive at some of these predictions.

Who was your b&f in 2002?

Moomba

 

[moomba]

Originally posted by Tio_Ray
14 North Melb - honest side that is aging

Average age of the side will be as low as it has been for ten years. We might take a fall (I'm hoping we will stay about the same) but it won't be due to ageing.

Moomba

 

[MarkT]

Yes Moomba, but unless they have discovered some reverse ageing process they are still ageing.