Strategy Live trading on draft night - Guess the first one?

[Crow till I die]

I rate Rozee highly, but there is no way I take him over Rankine, and I'd be pretty shocked if anyone does.

There are some on our board that follow juniors who would disagree with you on that as they see Rozee's ceiling as being higher than Rankine's - have a chat with Bicks on it as he is an astute watcher of U18 level football. You also don't know how much a player might put off a club in the interview process to influence them to not draft them. Not saying this has happened here that I know of, although Rankine has been quite open about his love for the crows, friendship with Eddie and his mentoring from the club so who knows

 

[BLOODSTAR]

It is interesting as my port friends who have links to the club are adamant that Port will take Rozee before Rankine as they see him as a Robbie Gray type player in the making. Maybe Rankine has let port know his preference is to go to the crows..who knows

Well that is interesting, although it does fell like a waste to get up that high for him as the other prospects are higher rated. I would definitely be happy to have him, but feel if those others are there you gotta take the best player available at P5. wouldn't mind trying to snag 6 and getting him and Rankine or smith would be the dream. Preference doesn't really matter much unfortunately for him or the Crows cause he very very unlikely get to P8, and cost to get him of another club would be to much for the crows to entertain most likely. plus if he goes to the draft after 2 years, i doubt crows would get him before other teams.

 

[Crow till I die]

Well that is interesting, although it does fell like a waste to get up that high for him as the other prospects are higher rated. I would definitely be happy to have him, but feel if those others are there you gotta take the best player available at P5. wouldn't mind trying to snag 6 and getting him and Rankine or smith would be the dream. Preference doesn't really matter much unfortunately for him or the Crows cause he very very unlikely get to P8, and cost to get him of another club would be to much for the crows to entertain most likely. plus if he goes to the draft after 2 years, i doubt crows would get him before other teams.

Maybe so. There has been comment on our board that the crows have an in principle agreement with GC for pick 3. I can't verify the accuracy of this myself but there were a few things in trade period that were strange and have me wondering if this may be and these are around a back end trade we did with them that got them a future pick that was meaningless for us as we could have used another pick in the stengle trade and that almost immediately after we let Francou leave whilst under contract to go to the GC. It all might be nothing but I think there is more to it

 

[Peel67skin]

we could probably get overs from that trade considering i believe they only have space to use 4 picks right now, so could probably trade 5+10 for 3+ their picks in the 20s they can't use, which isn't a super bad outcome.

There are talk that GCS might relegated one of the contract player to Rookie list , consider May,Scrimshaw salary no longer on next year salary cap .

 

[Malifice]

Maybe so. There has been comment on our board that the crows have an in principle agreement with GC for pick 3.

Why would the Suns do that? If they wanted to trade Pick 3 to the Crows, they'd just do it now and be done with it. Why have an 'in principle agreement'? It just dilutes their trade hand on draft day (cutting the Power out of negotiations).

For mine, it makes a lot more sense for the Suns to call out Lukosious at Pick 2, and then watch the Crows and Power attempt to outbid each other for Pick 3 (basically Izak Rankine).

The Suns should end up with at a minimum of 5 and 10 for 3 + 29 (Power's likely bid) meaning they walk away with Lukosious (2), and then with Rankine going to the highest bidder out of the Crows and Power at 3, and the Saints most likely taking Smith at 4 able to take both Max and Ben King (5 and 6) and then take whatever mids they can find with Picks 10 and 24.

That at least leaves the Crows able to pounce at 7 (via a swap with the Dogs for 8 and change) for Rozee I guess.

 

[Crow till I die]

Why would the Suns do that? If they wanted to trade Pick 3 to the Crows, they'd just do it now and be done with it. Why have an 'in principle agreement'? It just dilutes their trade hand on draft day (cutting the Power out of negotiations).

For mine, it makes a lot more sense for the Suns to call out Lukosious at Pick 2, and then watch the Crows and Power attempt to outbid each other for Pick 3 (basically Izak Rankine).

The Suns should end up with at a minimum of 5 and 10 for 3 + 29 (Power's likely bid) meaning they walk away with Lukosious (2), and then with Rankine going to the highest bidder out of the Crows and Power at 3, and the Saints most likely taking Smith at 4 able to take both Max and Ben King (5 and 6) and then take whatever mids they can find with Picks 10 and 24.

That at least leaves the Crows able to pounce at 7 (via a swap with the Dogs for 8 and change) for Rozee I guess.

you forgot to quote the rest of my post which outlined 2 strange dealings in trade period between the crows and GC. Remember the crows had no reason to let Francou go when under contract to another club and there was an odd pick swap trade done. Again, it is all scuttle but until the night we are probably all guessing

 

[Malifice]

you forgot to quote the rest of my post which outlined 2 strange dealings in trade period between the crows and GC. Remember the crows had no reason to let Francou go when under contract to another club and there was an odd pick swap trade done. Again, it is all scuttle but until the night we are probably all guessing

I'm not putting it past clubs to arrange backroom shennanigans, but I cant see any connection there between the pick swap and Francou leaving, and the Suns deciding to hand over Pick 3 to the Crows for a worse deal than the Powers likely offer.

The very best the Crows could offer for Pick 3 (and change) is Picks 8 and 13. Port hold 5 and 10.

If I'm the Suns, I'm eying off Port's picks 5 and 10. I take Lukosious at 2 (which makes it all but certain I'm about to take Rankine at 3) likely triggering a bidding war for Pick 3 between the two SA clubs for Rankine.

I cant see Port and the Crows sitting by without a whimper while the Suns select both Luko and Rankine at 2 and 3.

 

[Peel67skin]

I'm not putting it past clubs to arrange backroom shennanigans, but I cant see any connection there between the pick swap and Francou leaving, and the Suns deciding to hand over Pick 3 to the Crows for a worse deal than the Powers likely offer.

The very best the Crows could offer for Pick 3 (and change) is Picks 8 and 13. Port hold 5 and 10.

If I'm the Suns, I'm eying off Port's picks 5 and 10. I take Lukosious at 2 (which makes it all but certain I'm about to take Rankine at 3) likely triggering a bidding war for Pick 3 between the two SA clubs for Rankine.

I cant see Port and the Crows sitting by without a whimper while the Suns select both Luko and Rankine at 2 and 3.

What about GC let go of 2 and 3 and go in with 5,6,8,11,13. Two pick in top 8 with the pick 8 eventually become 9 due to Blakey .
If St Kilda go for Max king
GC go with Rozee and Bailey Smith .
If St Kilda go with either Rozee or Bailey smith , GC could go with King Twins

 

[Crow till I die]

I'm not putting it past clubs to arrange backroom shennanigans, but I cant see any connection there between the pick swap and Francou leaving, and the Suns deciding to hand over Pick 3 to the Crows for a worse deal than the Powers likely offer.

The very best the Crows could offer for Pick 3 (and change) is Picks 8 and 13. Port hold 5 and 10.

If I'm the Suns, I'm eying off Port's picks 5 and 10. I take Lukosious at 2 (which makes it all but certain I'm about to take Rankine at 3) likely triggering a bidding war for Pick 3 between the two SA clubs for Rankine.

I cant see Port and the Crows sitting by without a whimper while the Suns select both Luko and Rankine at 2 and 3.

You are assuming port are prepared to give up further picks to move 1 or 2 spots higher when they are very very likely to get Rozee at 5 anyway. They have also been on air saying they are very happy to go with the picks they have

 

[Keystone agony]

Port extremely likely to get one of Rozee or Rankine at 5. I dont see Port wanting to move up. They will get whichever SA kid is left.

I must admit i cant understand the saints going tall again early in the draft. Why arent they keen to get a gun midfielder?

They already have young key fwds with McCartin, Marshall, Membrey and Battle. Bruce albeit not young to return aswell.

Its been a while since theyve grabbed a genuine midfielder early from what i can remember and Bailey Smith would be perfect for that if they are worried about the SA go home factor

 

[Peel67skin]

If St Kilda take Bailey Smith , can see Max and Ben King going to Bulldog and Geelong or GWS .

 

[foj1]

Guess the pick swap!

Gee the stakes are high.

Just don't post if you are not interested.

 

[Sweet Jesus]

Just don't post if you are not interested.

Are those the rules?

 

[foj1]

No it is etiquette.

 

[foj1]

Gold Coast could trade 2 and 3 for more top 15 picks and trade second round picks. If they don't trade they should show some ruthlessness and bid on Blakey at 3 and Thomas at 6. Sydney and north have little choice but to match or get way inferior players.

 

[Northernsoul74]

Why would the Suns do that? If they wanted to trade Pick 3 to the Crows, they'd just do it now and be done with it. Why have an 'in principle agreement'? It just dilutes their trade hand on draft day (cutting the Power out of negotiations).

For mine, it makes a lot more sense for the Suns to call out Lukosious at Pick 2, and then watch the Crows and Power attempt to outbid each other for Pick 3 (basically Izak Rankine).

The Suns should end up with at a minimum of 5 and 10 for 3 + 29 (Power's likely bid) meaning they walk away with Lukosious (2), and then with Rankine going to the highest bidder out of the Crows and Power at 3, and the Saints most likely taking Smith at 4 able to take both Max and Ben King (5 and 6) and then take whatever mids they can find with Picks 10 and 24.

That at least leaves the Crows able to pounce at 7 (via a swap with the Dogs for 8 and change) for Rozee I guess.

If Rozee was there at 7 Dogs would snap him up and not trade with Crows.

 

[Peel67skin]

Gold Coast could trade 2 and 3 for more top 15 picks and trade second round picks. If they don't trade they should show some ruthlessness and bid on Blakey at 3 and Thomas at 6. Sydney and north have little choice but to match or get way inferior players.

Don't think GC Craig Cameron listen to you though .

 

[Shaz2012]

If Rozee was there at 7 Dogs would snap him up and not trade with Crows.

What if Rozee and Ben King were there, any inside word of your preference? Assumes GC take Caldwell at 6.

 

[Northernsoul74]

What if Rozee and Ben King were there, any inside word of your preference? Assumes GC take Caldwell at 6.

Most chat has been we want Smith or Rozee. Not sure they will be there so likely take Ben King or Caldwell.

 

[pinot]

Carlton trade pick #1 and #69 to Adelaide for pick #8, #16 and #21

Thats not even close to 3000 points.

 

[SL16]

If Rankine/Lukosius is available at 4, then I'd say 8+13 for 4 (with some later picks being swapped) would be likely.

Otherwise can see none happening in the first round.

 

[Crow till I die]

I wonder when we will get to the stage where on draft night a player gets drafted to a club he does not want to be at and on draft night when interviewed he asks to be traded to the club he wants to be at

 

[Shaz2012]

Thats not even close to 3000 points.

Nobody is after pick 1 though. We want pick 2 or 3. Same with Port. If GWS weren’t short on list numbers I could see them doing a trade with their favourite trading partner. But it just seems pretty obvious that Carlton are taking Walsh and anything interesting happens after that, if at all.

 

[The Joker]

I rather trade pick 2,3 24,29 to Port and Adelaide for 5 pick in top 20 than Carlton pick 1 for Walsh .
Rozee /Smith , Caldwell,Duursma , Hately , RCD , Liam Stocker ,Jez , vs Walsh .

Port : 2 , 15,24
Adelaide : 3 ,16,21,29
GC : 5,6,8,10,13

Or other combination .

The AFL world would love to see something like what you have put together, but I think Gold Coast are in a great position to demand so much more for what they have. I think locking them in with just the SA clubs could lighten the stranglehold they have on this draft. Just adding Stkilda into the fold could work out very well.

2, 3, 6, 24 & 29 is a fantastic position to be in heading into any draft, but a draft that has both South Australian clubs drooling at the prospect of one or two elite home grown talents entering their systems and still being able to select two elite talants themself, makes this a chance of a lifetime for The Suns.

First Gold Coast need to make it known they are going to take all three of the SA boys if Carlton take Walsh. In order for this to happen, they need to give up picks 6 and 24 to StKilda for pick 4.

Roll on draft day. Gold Coast have already made clear their intentions and will come out massive winners should they use those picks, so it is all on the two SA clubs to work something out.

Port swap Picks 5 & 15 for Pick 2 (keeping 10)
Crows give up Picks 8 & 16 for Pick 3 (keeping 13)
StKilda lose Picks 4 and walk away with Pick 6 & 24
Gold Coast cash in Picks 2, 3 & 24 and sit down with Picks 4, 5, 8, 15, 16 & 29. They build Twin Towers on the Gold Coast...

Draft Points are a moot, it's the price you need to pay for this kind of home grown talant and both SA clubs know it. Even with that said, it's not extreme overs in any sense!

 

[eastfreo75]

Suns trade pick 6 and 24 for Saints pick 4.

Suns pick all three SA kids.

Saints end up with either M King or Smith plus pick 24.