Losing the Close ones

[The Dawes]

Been a little perplexed by our seeming inability to win our share of close games in recent seasons so I thought I might have a quick look back to see if it's just a perception or if it was supported by the facts.


Since the start of 2018 we've been involved in 9 games with a margin of 5 points or less - of these we have won 2, lost 6 and drawn one.

2020 - round 4 - loss to GWS by 4 points
round 2 - draw to Richmond
2019 - Prelim - loss to GWS by 4
round 17 - win over West Coast by 1
round 16 - loss to Hawthorn by 4
round 11 - loss to Freo by 4
round 6 - win over Essendon by 4
2018 - GF - enuff said
round 20 - loss to Swans by 2

I suspect that the previous couple of season weren't much better either.

There is always an element of luck with these tights games, but I am concerned we are losing more than we should. Maybe it will turn around, but it's not a great trend and in a tight season not being able to win these games could make all the difference.

thoughts?

 

[TKiL]

Been a little perplexed by our seeming inability to win our share of close games in recent seasons so I thought I might have a quick look back to see if it's just a perception or if it was supported by the facts.


Since the start of 2018 we've been involved in 9 games with a margin of 5 points or less - of these we have won 2, lost 6 and drawn one.

2020 - round 4 - loss to GWS by 4 points
round 2 - draw to Richmond
2019 - Prelim - loss to GWS by 4
round 17 - win over West Coast by 1
round 16 - loss to Hawthorn by 4
round 11 - loss to Freo by 4
round 6 - win over Essendon by 4
2018 - GF - enuff said
round 20 - loss to Swans by 2

I suspect that the previous couple of season weren't much better either.

There is always an element of luck with these tights games, but I am concerned we are losing more than we should. Maybe it will turn around, but it's not a great trend and in a tight season not being able to win these games could make all the difference.

thoughts?

Good research - you would think there would be a 50:50 outcome in close games - so if this is a statistical trend it is a bit concerning

 

[nahnah]

its annoying as **** to put it bluntly

 

[The Royal Sampler]

So from that sample you’ve mentioned, if we were an average team playing average teams and we did it 1,000 times, you’d expect the median result to be 5-4 or 4-5, and as the data ought to be a fairly normal distribution you could probably assume 6-3, 3-6, 7-2, 2-7 would be within the 2 standard deviations from the mean. As it is we were 2-6-1.

That’s not enough of an outlier to be statistically meaningful, and can be expected to regress to the mean over time anyway. So basically it’s meaningless as the actual sample is way too small.

 

[The Dawes]

So from that sample you’ve mentioned, if we were an average team playing average teams and we did it 1,000 times, you’d expect the median result to be 5-4 or 4-5, and as the data ought to be a fairly normal distribution you could probably assume 6-3, 3-6, 7-2, 2-7 would be within the 2 standard deviations from the mean. As it is we were 2-6-1.

That’s not enough of an outlier to be statistically meaningful, and can be expected to regress to the mean over time anyway. So basically it’s meaningless as the actual sample is way too small.

agree - it is a small sample size, but it's also a sample size which features largely the same Collingwood team/players.

I can honestly say when games get close, I am not confident we can get over the line.

 

[The Royal Sampler]

I can honestly say when games get close, I am not confident we can get over the line.

Neither am I... because you can’t expect to routinely win at a much better rate than 50% of games decided by a goal or less. That simply doesn’t engender confidence.

 

[The Dawes]

had a quick look at 2017 as well - 4 games of 5 points or less margin for 2 losses, one draw and one win.

 

[Help My Club]

Been a little perplexed by our seeming inability to win our share of close games in recent seasons so I thought I might have a quick look back to see if it's just a perception or if it was supported by the facts.


Since the start of 2018 we've been involved in 9 games with a margin of 5 points or less - of these we have won 2, lost 6 and drawn one.

2020 - round 4 - loss to GWS by 4 points
round 2 - draw to Richmond
2019 - Prelim - loss to GWS by 4
round 17 - win over West Coast by 1
round 16 - loss to Hawthorn by 4
round 11 - loss to Freo by 4
round 6 - win over Essendon by 4
2018 - GF - enuff said
round 20 - loss to Swans by 2

I suspect that the previous couple of season weren't much better either.

There is always an element of luck with these tights games, but I am concerned we are losing more than we should. Maybe it will turn around, but it's not a great trend and in a tight season not being able to win these games could make all the difference.

thoughts?

Great research and fully agree.

The argument that it is a small sample size is irrelevant when 2 of those losses are on the big stage - 2018 GF and 2019 PF.

I can also honestly say when games get close, I am not confident we can get over the line. At 3/4 time against GWS, notwithstanding we had control in the final quarter, I knew we wouldn't get up.

 

[The Royal Sampler]

The argument that it is a small sample size is irrelevant when 2 of those losses are on the big stage - 2018 GF and 2019 PF.

So if random events occur which have important ramifications, then they aren’t random anymore? LOL.

 

[Help My Club]

So if random events occur which have important ramifications, then they aren’t random anymore? LOL.

Mate are you some sort of maths guru?

Random or not I don't give a...... I think I mentioned to you earlier, I will always follow the money. And the odds of Collingwood winning the close ones of late, particularly in clutch matches that really matter, aint pretty.

 

[manicmagpie]

The second you increase the margin you're looking at from 5 points or less to 9 points or less the discrepancy disappears and even swings into our favour.

6 wins, 5 losses and 1 draw in the last two years.

8 wins, 7 losses, 2 draws in the last four years.

But The Royal Sampler is correct, there'll never be enough of a sample size to prove anything. By the time you get to a big enough number of results the whole team will have changed, rendering any connection redundant.

Better for me is the stat that says we haven't had a single loss above 47 points for more than 4 years.

 

[The Royal Sampler]

Mate are you some sort of maths guru?

Random or not I don't give a...... I think I mentioned to you earlier, I will always follow the money. And the odds of Collingwood winning the close ones of late, particularly in clutch matches that really matter, aint pretty.

The point is, you don’t aim to get better in close matches, as close matches are subject to high levels of variance.

You aim to get better so you can avoid close matches.

#thereisnospoon

 

[Help My Club]

The point is, you don’t aim to get better in close matches, as close matches are subject to high levels of variance.

You aim to get better so you can avoid close matches.

#thereisnospoon

Now that I totally agree with aka 2018 GF. The ultimate example confirming what you're saying.

 

[Robroy22]

I've had a feeling for a few years that the strength of our 2010 team was it's ability to win 1:1 contests. Back then we had Johnno, Maxy, Heater, Harry, Daisy, Rusty, Lukey Ball, Pendles, Swanny, Caff, Clokey, Jolly, Brown, Dids, Tooves, Leon, Beamer all of whom could be relied upon on a regular basis to win their 1:1's.
Skip forward to 2020 and we have (or Had) Maynard, Howe, Moore, Crisp, Sidey, Pendles, Grundy, Adams, Treloar, Mihocek and Stevo that consistently win their 1:1's and a group containing Elliot, JDG, Phillips, Mayne, Roughie, who sometimes win their 1:1's

In close finishes, our ability to win vital contests is diminished. Our team structures cover us for much of each game, but when the whips are cracking at the end of a game, our ability to win vital contests is a problem.

 

[manicmagpie]

At our peak from 2009-2011, we went 4 wins, 4 losses and 2 draws for results under a goal. So, not brilliant and exactly as 50/50 as you'd expect.

 

[Robroy22]

At our peak from 2009-2011, we went 4 wins, 4 losses and 2 draws for results under a goal. So, not brilliant and exactly as 50/50 as you'd expect.

Yet we're nowhere near 50-50 atm?

 

[manicmagpie]

Yet we're nowhere near 50-50 atm?

We're better than 50-50 when it's a single digit margin, and you can't tell me those aren't close games.

Point is, I can't see anything to say that the current team isn't good in tight games or that our last flag side was particularly good at them. Close games are inherently volatile and unless there's a crazy imbalance evident in the stats I wouldn't draw too many conclusions.

 

[Roverjg]

Since 1990 (30 years) we have been involved in 91 games where the result has been less than a goal. We have won 37 games, drawn 8 games and lost 46 games, for a win/loss of 40%.

 

[Harry O]

Mentally soft is a factor

 

[pablo disco bar]

Because we always let a goal slip in the last minute of quarters for some reason

 

[legendstatus]

You win some you lose some. Reckon 75% of them we were in a winning position


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[whiteside35]

Also another factor worth having a look at recently is the horrendous goal kicking late in these games,especially the set shots and an inability to kick at least 30 metres.

 

[The Royal Sampler]

Mentally soft is a factor

You or them?

 

[No SPIN]

When I look at these stats I see:
2 umpiring mistakes - Walters (Freo)
Higgins (Rich)
1 - miraculous goal (Sheed) after a clear infringement on Maynard was missed

so where is this huge problem given the serendipity of the above?

 

[anshell]

I put it down to our forwards being poor goal kickers and not being able to kick any distance over 35 metres.Mayne and Brown missed gimme shots at goal last week that suburban football players should be able to kick.And Cox late in the 2018 Grand Final had the chance to put us 8 points up,and potentially win the game for us,and he couldn’t make the distance from about 40 metres out.