Mathematical formula for player value movements

[Cassius_Clay]

If your captain is omitted. Does his replacement get double points? I think not. But i'm hoping so.

Nope. 0 points.

 

[ExMrBlonde]

Its pretty simple all you need is 5 numbers (average score last year, last 3 rounds scores, and multiple salary factor). What to do with these has been mentioned a few times in the main DT thread, and can be easily set up with a spreadsheet.

If my formula is used as a guide, for SC, out of all the players to play 2 games, Johnson of Freo will gain the most if his average continues for 3 games. Watson, Bowden, Skipper, Gram, Gibson are in for big increases too if they play another good game.

That means if Dane Swan gets 130 DT points this week, he'll double in value from $271,000 to approx $542,000.. Won't happen !!!

Last Year : 913 points from 14 games =Avg 65.2
Current Value / Avg Score Last Year = $271,000 / 65.2 = 4155.31 salary factor
Current 3 game average * salary factor = 130 * 4155.31 = $540,190

With a 130 average, Dane Swan would be lucky to increase to $320K - $350K after 1 week, not $540K.

 

[catempire]

That means if Dane Swan gets 130 DT points this week, he'll double in value from $271,000 to approx $542,000.. Won't happen !!!

Last Year : 913 points from 14 games =Avg 65.2
Current Value / Avg Score Last Year = $271,000 / 65.2 = 4155.31 salary factor
Current 3 game average * salary factor = 130 * 4155.31 = $540,190

With a 130 average, Dane Swan would be lucky to increase to $320K - $350K after 1 week, not $540K.

You missed a step. There's some sort of weighting between the $540,190 and his old value of $271,000. It will be somewhere in the middle. More like $400,000.

 

[Cassius_Clay]

Say Dane Swan gets 80 points next week. How much will he go up?

 

[catempire]

Say Dane Swan gets 80 points next week. How much will he go up?

My guess is about $100,000.*


*Disclaimer: I'm not sure of this and it's just a rough calculation. I didn't follow the movements closely last year so I don't know if I'm on the right track but intuitively it makes sense.

 

[Cassius_Clay]

My guess is about $100,000.*


*Disclaimer: I'm not sure of this and it's just a rough calculation. I didn't follow the movements closely last year so I don't know if I'm on the right track but intuitively it makes sense.

and Lonie?

 

[catempire]

and Lonie?

Also about $100,000 with the same caveats.

 

[chooka_delic]

Im predicting Swan to be worth round 315000 after Round 3 (provided he get 80 this week). Lloyd will be round 330,000. Both are excellent investments

 

[Cassius_Clay]

Do you know the exact formula?

 

[chooka_delic]

Nah mate, cant be stuffed trying to figure it out. Just guesses

 

[footylover18]

Anyone think they know the exact formula?

 

[Blinger]

Anyone think they know the exact formula?

I have a rough formula, which took about 5 minutes to work out.
eg. P.Everitt currently 419000 with a current average of 50 after 3 rounds.
50*4150=207500>419000-207500= 211500>211500/22*3= 28850 >419000-28850=390150.

4150 is the average they used to calculate the price from last years averages.
22*3 is 22 rounds for the season/ 3 is how many rounds they calculate there average movement.
If Spider was to continue to average 50 say for the following 3 rounds his price would fall to say 325000-330000.

 

[Rancid_Beasties]

I have a rough formula, which took about 5 minutes to work out.
eg. P.Everitt currently 419000 with a current average of 50 after 3 rounds.
50*4150=207500>419000-207500= 211500>211500/22*3= 28850 >419000-28850=390150.

4150 is the average they used to calculate the price from last years averages.
22*3 is 22 rounds for the season/ 3 is how many rounds they calculate there average movement.

Thats assuming its a straight line formula and not a parabola.

 

[Blinger]

Thats assuming its a straight line formula and not a parabola.

Seriously, it's the AFL running the comp not NASA, if it gets any harder they will just give up.

 

[footylover18]

Seriously, it's the AFL running the comp not NASA, if it gets any harder they will just give up.

hahahhaa. nice.

 

[Rancid_Beasties]

Fair enough. But you never know.

 

[Cassius_Clay]

I have a rough formula, which took about 5 minutes to work out.
eg. P.Everitt currently 419000 with a current average of 50 after 3 rounds.
50*4150=207500>419000-207500= 211500>211500/22*3= 28850 >419000-28850=390150.

4150 is the average they used to calculate the price from last years averages.
22*3 is 22 rounds for the season/ 3 is how many rounds they calculate there average movement.
If Spider was to continue to average 50 say for the following 3 rounds his price would fall to say 325000-330000.

Thats how I worked it out. I was only have a guess aswell.

 

[Cassius_Clay]

Seriously, it's the AFL running the comp not NASA, if it gets any harder they will just give up.

LoL

 

[macca69]

My players predicted price increases

Fixter - 35K
Gram - 65K
Brown - 20K
Riscitelli - 60K
Mitch Clark - 75K
Riewoldt - 15K
Scott Harding - 45K

can anyone who thinks they know the formular tell me if u think I have gotten it right or not, cheers.

 

[Benno_900]

To find the player's starting value: last year's average mutliplied by approx. 4156

To find the player's 05 average: their starting value divided by approx. 4156

Don't know how to find the changes in value, but from that you'll at least know if their values will rise or fall.

 

[Blinger]

My players predicted price increases

Fixter - 35K
Gram - 65K
Brown - 20K
Riscitelli - 60K
Mitch Clark - 75K
Riewoldt - 15K
Scott Harding - 45K

can anyone who thinks they know the formular tell me if u think I have gotten it right or not, cheers.

If my formula works out to be correct,

Fixter - 9,400
Gram - 17,000
Brown - 4,700
Riscitelli - 15,300
Clark - 19,600
Riewoldt - 3,900
Harding - 12,300

These amounts include last nights stats.

 

[Nebula1971]

My players predicted price increases

Fixter - 35K
Gram - 65K
Brown - 20K
Riscitelli - 60K
Mitch Clark - 75K
Riewoldt - 15K
Scott Harding - 45K

can anyone who thinks they know the formular tell me if u think I have gotten it right or not, cheers.

Macca, I know exactly what you have done... There is no way the variances would be so great after the 3 weeks... Your figures (IMO) will be accurate if their current average scores are maintained throughout the season...

Don't get me wrong, I hope you are right as it means I am right too...

If you are correct and base your formula on Coxy getting another 140 points, all I can say is...

 

[Waite_30]

If my formula works out to be correct,

Fixter - 9,400
Gram - 17,000
Brown - 4,700
Riscitelli - 15,300
Clark - 19,600
Riewoldt - 3,900
Harding - 12,300

These amounts include last nights stats.

i doubt they will increase that slowly. As we know there prices are greater so i'd expect them to increase more.

 

[Waite_30]

Where are the dedicate Cassius_Clay, LukeHodge15, and the others? They should of found out a formula by now....

 

[Benno_900]

I've just tried to make up a formula and used Riewoldt and Akermanis as examples. According to my formula Riewoldt should go up 14K and Aker should go down 53K. If this happens, I've got it!

I've also found that values have gone up 11% on last year's values. That might help.