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Mid-Price Madness....

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He's got back into my side .....his PS games last year b4 the knee were top shelf ......he's hungry & that's always a good sign

 
dmc333 said:
Anyone thought about who may be the unexpected big breakout this year.

Would like to think it would be Jarrod Berry, but I still couldn't bring myself to take a 430k mid.
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Witherden 455k to jump from 84 average to 105+this year. A bit of wishful thinking, but Docherty did jump from 87 to 108 albeit in his 4th season and Witherden only playing his 3rd season. Similar skillsets and football IQ's though. Improved Lions team and new kick out rule to help Witho break out.

I think Taranto 480k could also breakout to 105-110 this year if he can be more consistent. Plays a very SC friendly game.
 

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thepacingman said:
394k chased me away.
Click to expand...

Are Newman and Williamson competing for spots? If so, who woulld be ahead?
Have seen Williamson in a few sides, don’t know much about him to be honest.
 
SterlingArcher said:
Bored at work on a PH, so another look through stats to see if I could find a trend to share.

So had a look at 40 current midfielders who have at some stage averaged 105+ in a year in their careers (M.Crouch, Sloane, Gibbs, Neale, Zorko, Cripps, Thomas, Murphy, Treloar, Beams, Pendlebury, Sidebottom, Merrett, Heppell, Fyfe, Mundy, Dangerfield, Selwood, Ablett, Coniglio, Kelly, Ward, Deledio, Mitchell, Oliver, Gray, Rockliff, Boak, Martin, Cotchin, Steven, Hannebery, Parker, Kennedy, Gaff, Yeo, Shuey, Macrae, Bont, Libba).

Basically the average breakout year (soft floor of 105, sometimes considered as low as 103 though) came from: a 4th to 5th year midfielder, with around 60 games, 21-23 years old at the start of the season, who improved their average by around 15-20 points the previous year (i.e. for a 2019 breakout player, they improved their 2017 average by 15-20 in 2018), who was a first round pick and averaged 90 +-5 in the previous season (so 2018).

Then arbitrarily, because boredom/slow work day, looked at which boxes each player ticked.

E.g. Matt Crouch went 59, 68, 92, 110 in his first 4 seasons. He had played 47 games before his season of 110, he was 21 years old at the start of the season, he had had a jump of 24 points in his previous year, and his most recent season average was 92. This gives him a score of 5/6 for the factors.

Out of the 40 premiums:
Murphy, Kelly, Cotchin all had a 6/6 rating
The average was 4, with a median of 4.5. Very basic numbers - average got killed by the 2nd year guys - Bont, Fyfe, Oliver, Martin.

Looking through the list of players that might be around there:
Brayshaw meets all the criteria (6/6)
De Goey 5.5/6
Miller is 5/6 /(1/2 for both pick 29 and a jump of 13)
Dunkley is 4.5/6 (only 43 games, 1/2 for being pick 25)
McLean 4.5 (not a big enough jump in 2018, 1/2 for being pick 26)
Steele 4.5 (same as McLean)
O'Meara is 5/6 (25 years old)
Phillips is 4.5 (1/2 for a jump of 14 in 2018, pick 58)
Acres 4.5/6
Taranto 4/6
E.Langdon 3/6
Harmes 3/6
Blakely 3/6
Prestia 2/6
Kelly 1.5/6

This didn't really tell us anything new. Brayshaw, De Goey, Dunkley, O'Meara, Taranto and to a lesser extent McLean, Steele, Miller are all recognised as potential breakout players.

Some other less considered names (all sub 2018 averages)
Fiorini - 3/6
Berry - 4/6
Parfitt - 3.5/6
Milera - 4/6
Z.Jones - 3/6
Hopper - 5/6
Powell-Pepper - 4.5/6
McCluggage - 4/6

Certainly breakout players do have a trend of being able to complete 'big' jumps from year to year - Murphy went 80 to 99 to 113, Merrett went 63 to 88 to 112, Kelly went 70 to 87 to 114, Ward went 62, 89, 107, Cotchin went 79 to 100 to 116, Gaff 71 to 87 to 104 etc.
But without knowing what non-breakout players do, this information isn't very useful. If it was 20% of all players who did this went on to breakout, I'd like my chances (once you whittle out obvious no's etc). But if it was only 5%, it's still as risky as not doing any research at all. Too hard to analyse 200+ players (and it's easy to remember which players are premiums, not so easy to remember who went from 64 to 85 and then plateaued).

I'd love to know how many 6/6 players there have been that met this criteria to see the % hit but unfortunately that's probably a step too far.

Another trend I looked at was players who broke out in their 3rd years.
Selwood went from 98 (2nd year) to 110, Cripps 96 to 107, Shuey 94 to 103, Gibbs 93 to 106, Treloar 87 to 108, Libba 83 to 108, Rockliff 86 to 113, Merrett 88 to 112. Sort of in between that 85-95 mark seems safe, but only Taranto is in that mark as a player entering his 3rd year and averaging in the ballpark of 85-95 (averaging 89).

How about the dreaded 2nd year blues? We've seen from memory only Oliver (70 to 111), Fyfe (72 to 108), and Bont (78 to 103) really become viable premium options, with Martin going from 78 to 99 being an option as a forward but not as a mid.
Oliver went from 67.7% TOG to 77.1%. Fyfe 77.2 to 88.4%. Bont 76.9% to 84%. Dusty from 78.2% to 84.4%.
The only players here are Sier, Worpel and Higgins (first years who averaged between 70-80). Worpel averaged only 73.3%, Sier 63%, and Higgins 71.8%.
Technically Fritsch is in the category but have skipped over because doubt he plays enough midfield time - however with his body shape and marking ability, if he gets midfield time....where have we seen this before?
If any appear to be playing high game time in JLT, particularly in the midfield, and have objectively increased their endurance this year (actual time trials and what not, not just "tearing pre-season up") - they could be options. 4 isn't a large sample size to go off, and shows there isn't going to be one every year, but if you're able to pick the 5th, you're already ahead of the pack - at these players levels, you're looking at 5% ownership max. Sier however likely though is surely not going to lift to 110 with Treloar, Adams, De Goey, Pendlebury, Sidebottom, Grundy, Beams all there as 100 options and Howe 95ish etc.

I think factoring in the opportunity factor gives both Brisbane guys (Berry 4/6, McCluggage 4/6) and the GWS guys (Hopper 5/6, Taranto 4/6) a strong chance to be the new guy that goes from approx 80 to 110, while decreasing it for Collingwood guys (Sier, Phillips). Taranto certainly has the history of 3rd year players on his side - not sure I'll have the balls to take any but certainly I've now swung from looking at more medium midpricers (B.Crouch, Hannebery, Miles, Libba) to trying to see if I can figure out a way to get as least risk in picking a breakout option.

Much like the premium forwards, the stats probably don't tell us anything groundbreaking, nor does it show the other side (i.e. players that break your season rather than make it). However, my rankings in a conclusion after that research are for breakout options:
As mids - most likely as it stands now
1. Brayshaw 2. Taranto 3. Steele 4. Berry 5. O'Meara 6. Hopper/McCluggage

As forwards
1. Dunkley 2. De Goey 3. Parfitt 4. Kelly 5. McLean

As players to avoid 2nd year blues and be in that 1 in every 2-3 years jumper
1. Worpel 2. Kelly 3. Sier 4. Higgins
Click to expand...

Outstanding work, you’re the standout performer on the track this preseason:thumbsu:
Looked at it once on similar lines, the thing I found difficult was looking more broadly to figure out the probability of breakout.
It took time and was manual just to look at blokes who had done it, to then add in those that didn’t is more work again and I never found an efficient way to grab thd data, it was pretty manual.
The other part is role changes that they don’t control that cap their ceiling and nip their score progression in the bud (like Dogs boys, how will they be used this year?)
Hopper is one that interests me, moreso than Taranto tbh.
 
dmc333 said:
Anyone thought about who may be the unexpected big breakout this year.

Would like to think it would be Jarrod Berry, but I still couldn't bring myself to take a 430k mid.
Click to expand...

I don't have the courage but I wouldn't be shocked to see SPP break out. Tackling machine, more midfield responsibility at Port this year, returned in great fitness apparently and his last year had those off field distractions.
 
dmc333 said:
Anyone thought about who may be the unexpected big breakout this year.

Would like to think it would be Jarrod Berry, but I still couldn't bring myself to take a 430k mid.
Click to expand...
He'll be a star in future. I saw him pull 118 against both the WCE and Collingwood at the end of the year and for a 2nd year player he reminded me of Fyfe. I've got him in my team ATM but will be ballsy to keep him in.
 
Suns of Anarchy said:
He's had a good pre season. But too many injuries, including soft tissues, and on the wrong side of 30 for my liking.
His last 5 games of 2017 he averaged 100 after an interrupted season (hammy and family reasons) and didn't get on the park last year with a shoulder.
If he starts off with a flyer then I'll look at him then.
Click to expand...
I’m warming more towards him as my D4 over Roberton if he stays healthy throughout preseason.
 
dmc333 said:
Anyone thought about who may be the unexpected big breakout this year.

Would like to think it would be Jarrod Berry, but I still couldn't bring myself to take a 430k mid.
Click to expand...
Benny Ainsworth potentially if the mid / wing role comes to pass. Keen to give him another go.
 
Aaron Hall @ $389k...... anyone?? "If" healthy he could be a revelation at North Melb...... IMO a better mid-priced punt than Miles, Libba, Hanners.
Worst case, he could be a good mid-pricer to start with, and downgrade to either Libba, Hanners, Miles (whomever is performing the best) once the dust settles in first 2-3 rounds......

Be good to hear other opinions.
 
Asho81 said:
Aaron Hall @ $389k...... anyone?? "If" healthy he could be a revelation at North Melb...... IMO a better mid-priced punt than Miles, Libba, Hanners.
Worst case, he could be a good mid-pricer to start with, and downgrade to either Libba, Hanners, Miles (whomever is performing the best) once the dust settles in first 2-3 rounds......

Be good to hear other opinions.
Click to expand...
if super coach was a 4 week comp, he would be nearly first picked. starts quickly and then usually disappears.
Probably about 80k over priced to be picked
 
Asho81 said:
Main mid-pricer I’m punting on is Newman @ Carlton..... not seeing him in many teams. Any reason for this? [emoji848]


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Click to expand...

I think the main reason Newman popped up on peoples radars was due to Dochs injury...
Then we got told that Newman wasn't going to fill Dochs role (!)
And he's priced the same as Williams (and people hate looking at 2x400k players side by side in one line).

Newmans situation
  • Mature age, hitting prime (~26 Y.O)
  • Third pre-season
  • No one filled the Docherty role last season
  • Simpson turns 35 this year - regression is due
  • Carlton had football titans Kerridge, Thomas, Curnow, Graham putting out 30+ touches (because there is no one else outside Simpson, Cripps and Murphy)
  • Averaged 83 in 2017, Averaged 72 in 2018 which increased to 80 in his block of games (R17 -> R23)
Sydney has a history of trading out younger underutilized players which generally produce good upticks in the following year
  • 2018 - Hanners, Newman, Rohan
  • 2017 - N/A
  • 2016 - Tom Mitchell +15 avg (104 -> 119), Toby Nankervis +14 avg (75 -> 89)
  • 2015 - Lewis Jetta -24 avg (83 -> 59) Craig Bird +10 avg (70 -> 80)
  • 2014 - Nick Malceski -24 avg (105 -> 71) Shane Biggs +23 avg (49 -> 72)
  • 2013 - Shane Mumford +21 avg (92 -> 113) Jesse White -5 avg (67 -> 62) +18 avg Andrejs Everitt (63 -> 81)
So those that went down in average were senior players that were playing full seasons (Malceski & Jetta)
Almost all other younger players leaving for Sydney see a double digit average increase.

Why did Carlton recruit him?
What the Blues drafted him for: The positives are three-fold for Carlton’s newest recruit: efficiency, versatility and grit. His left foot across half-back is his main asset, hitting targets and launching his side in defence. He is equally adept in the back-line and along the wing, where he spent a fair portion of his time in 2017. Generally, his tackles stay stuck: Newman ranked elite in 2017 with a tackle efficiency rate of 78 percent.
Click to expand...


So whats the story for a 15-20 ppg upside from the 80 average he finished 2018 with?
  1. There is a history of Swans leaving to other clubs for opportunity increasing their averages by 15+
  2. There is a lot of opportunity to go around at Carlton (across halfback and in the midfield)
  3. Newman's age/pre-season is in the right range
  4. Ball magnet at NEAFL level (Hi Tom Mitchell!)
  5. Good user of the ball, tackles well

His he a slam dunk? No
Is he a better choice then Williams? No
Should he be considered? Absolutely
 

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Newman will junk up with Simpson. I can see him really waxing along HBF.

I got scared off by his avg numbers, but he can go big
 
JDavey said:
I think the main reason Newman popped up on peoples radars was due to Dochs injury...
Then we got told that Newman wasn't going to fill Dochs role (!)
And he's priced the same as Williams (and people hate looking at 2x400k players side by side in one line).

Newmans situation
  • Mature age, hitting prime (~26 Y.O)
  • Third pre-season
  • No one filled the Docherty role last season
  • Simpson turns 35 this year - regression is due
  • Carlton had football titans Kerridge, Thomas, Curnow, Graham putting out 30+ touches (because there is no one else outside Simpson, Cripps and Murphy)
  • Averaged 83 in 2017, Averaged 72 in 2018 which increased to 80 in his block of games (R17 -> R23)
Sydney has a history of trading out younger underutilized players which generally produce good upticks in the following year
  • 2018 - Hanners, Newman, Rohan
  • 2017 - N/A
  • 2016 - Tom Mitchell +15 avg (104 -> 119), Toby Nankervis +14 avg (75 -> 89)
  • 2015 - Lewis Jetta -24 avg (83 -> 59) Craig Bird +10 avg (70 -> 80)
  • 2014 - Nick Malceski -24 avg (105 -> 71) Shane Biggs +23 avg (49 -> 72)
  • 2013 - Shane Mumford +21 avg (92 -> 113) Jesse White -5 avg (67 -> 62) +18 avg Andrejs Everitt (63 -> 81)
So those that went down in average were senior players that were playing full seasons (Malceski & Jetta)
Almost all other younger players leaving for Sydney see a double digit average increase.

Why did Carlton recruit him?



So whats the story for a 15-20 ppg upside from the 80 average he finished 2018 with?
  1. There is a history of Swans leaving to other clubs for opportunity increasing their averages by 15+
  2. There is a lot of opportunity to go around at Carlton (across halfback and in the midfield)
  3. Newman's age/pre-season is in the right range
  4. Ball magnet at NEAFL level (Hi Tom Mitchell!)
  5. Good user of the ball, tackles well

His he a slam dunk? No
Is he a better choice then Williams? No
Should he be considered? Absolutely
Click to expand...

Wow.... super impressive summary. I was already sold on Newman, but you have certainly reinforced it.
I did not realise the correlation between Ex-Swans and the increase..... I wonder if this will relate to Hanners......?
[emoji848]


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Asho81 said:
Whatever works.......
Click to expand...
axl-rose-slash-2018-1000x500.jpg
 

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gutsroy said:
Benny Ainsworth potentially if the mid / wing role comes to pass. Keen to give him another go.
Click to expand...
Started off his 2nd year slowly and built up to a 5 week block where he played more midfield minutes. That was against teams with decent mids like Port, Bulldogs, Melb, Geelong and GWS. He averaged 21 disposals, 5 clearances, 5 tackles and 90SC points. He then hurt his foot and was nursed home.
Much fitter and has been talking about extra midfield time this year. You can do a lot worse if you are looking for a stepping stone FWD at 273K.
 
Suns of Anarchy said:
Started off his 2nd year slowly and built up to a 5 week block where he played more midfield minutes. That was against teams with decent mids like Port, Bulldogs, Melb, Geelong and GWS. He averaged 21 disposals, 5 clearances, 5 tackles and 90SC points. He then hurt his foot and was nursed home.
Much fitter and has been talking about extra midfield time this year. You can do a lot worse if you are looking for a stepping stone FWD at 273K.
Click to expand...

Yeah, held him last year and that block was good and then he had calf and foot niggles on the run home as you say. Have also read / seen the reports on the mid / wing role and the running work, have brought him in.
Doesn’t take a backward step, too, doesn’t influence his score but good to see. :thumbsu:
 
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