Mid-Price Madness....

[SterlingArcher]

SteveB telling his grandchildren how he wasted his entire life playing Supercoach
View attachment 609268

Players like Nic Newman make any reference to lemons very relevant...

 

[stevebbb]

re Hibberd, there's a 95% chance I don't go anywhere near him, but it will be interesting to see how it plays out. I truly think he can bounce back to 2017 form

In 2017 he played loose off half back while Jordan Lewis played in the middle
In 2018 he played mostly as a 1 on 1 defender while Lewis was moved to half back

What happens in 2019? Is Lewis still best 22 in his final year? Does May coming in free up Hibberd again?

Early prediction: Hibberd will average 90-100

 

[Cactus_]

re Hibberd, there's a 95% chance I don't go anywhere near him, but it will be interesting to see how it plays out. I truly think he can bounce back to 2017 form

In 2017 he played loose off half back while Jordan Lewis played in the middle
In 2018 he played mostly as a 1 on 1 defender while Lewis was moved to half back

What happens in 2019? Is Lewis still best 22 in his final year? Does May coming in free up Hibberd again?

Early prediction: Hibberd will average 90-100

If you knew where Hibberd would play he could be an OK option ... but, given he has been subjected to role changes before you’d probably want a fairly strong lead on where he will play before you started him.

Question marks over Lewis and May don’t really count as a strong lead for mine.

 

[big_bazza]

Nic Newman for Super Premo! 110 average imminent

Hes bloody tempting is Nic, awkaward price and im not sure of his role yet, assuming he gets he game which he bloody should. I wish the swans kept him. We all know what hes capable SC wise after that 151 he scored vs the roos in his 5th game. It was pure glory when he was a late in that day and a sh1t load of coaches had the C on him, the drama when he went on to be b.o.g was brilliant.

 

[Ash1337]

Anything on Jayden Hunt?

 

[Deliverance]

Anything on Jayden Hunt?

No, but Mike Hunt's up for a big year.

 

[Hai_Newman]

Hes bloody tempting is Nic, awkaward price and im not sure of his role yet, assuming he gets he game which he bloody should. I wish the swans kept him. We all know what hes capable SC wise after that 151 he scored vs the roos in his 5th game. It was pure glory when he was a late in that day and a sh1t load of coaches had the C on him, the drama when he went on to be b.o.g was brilliant.

Hai BB ...
Haha, yeah good times!! Fair to say the SC game thread day was pure gold that day.
Your boy Ronke Tonke did it the following year too IIRC, the melts were delicious.

 

[Hai_Newman]

No, but Mike Hunt's up for a big year.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Hai BB ...
Haha, yeah good times!! Fair to say the SC game thread day was pure gold that day.
Your boy Ronke Tonke did it the following year too IIRC, the melts were delicious.

Not exactly the word i used on that day

 

[markm106]

Miles the pick of the mid pricers for me. I think he can go 95 possibly more.

 

[Keg on legs]

Hes bloody tempting is Nic, awkaward price and im not sure of his role yet, assuming he gets he game which he bloody should. I wish the swans kept him. We all know what hes capable SC wise after that 151 he scored vs the roos in his 5th game. It was pure glory when he was a late in that day and a sh1t load of coaches had the C on him, the drama when he went on to be b.o.g was brilliant.

Haiiiiii big boy

 

[SterlingArcher]

Bored at work on a PH, so another look through stats to see if I could find a trend to share.

So had a look at 40 current midfielders who have at some stage averaged 105+ in a year in their careers (M.Crouch, Sloane, Gibbs, Neale, Zorko, Cripps, Thomas, Murphy, Treloar, Beams, Pendlebury, Sidebottom, Merrett, Heppell, Fyfe, Mundy, Dangerfield, Selwood, Ablett, Coniglio, Kelly, Ward, Deledio, Mitchell, Oliver, Gray, Rockliff, Boak, Martin, Cotchin, Steven, Hannebery, Parker, Kennedy, Gaff, Yeo, Shuey, Macrae, Bont, Libba).

Basically the average breakout year (soft floor of 105, sometimes considered as low as 103 though) came from: a 4th to 5th year midfielder, with around 60 games, 21-23 years old at the start of the season, who improved their average by around 15-20 points the previous year (i.e. for a 2019 breakout player, they improved their 2017 average by 15-20 in 2018), who was a first round pick and averaged 90 +-5 in the previous season (so 2018).

Then arbitrarily, because boredom/slow work day, looked at which boxes each player ticked.

E.g. Matt Crouch went 59, 68, 92, 110 in his first 4 seasons. He had played 47 games before his season of 110, he was 21 years old at the start of the season, he had had a jump of 24 points in his previous year, and his most recent season average was 92. This gives him a score of 5/6 for the factors.

Out of the 40 premiums:
Murphy, Kelly, Cotchin all had a 6/6 rating
The average was 4, with a median of 4.5. Very basic numbers - average got killed by the 2nd year guys - Bont, Fyfe, Oliver, Martin.

Looking through the list of players that might be around there:
Brayshaw meets all the criteria (6/6)
De Goey 5.5/6
Miller is 5/6 /(1/2 for both pick 29 and a jump of 13)
Dunkley is 4.5/6 (only 43 games, 1/2 for being pick 25)
McLean 4.5 (not a big enough jump in 2018, 1/2 for being pick 26)
Steele 4.5 (same as McLean)
O'Meara is 5/6 (25 years old)
Phillips is 4.5 (1/2 for a jump of 14 in 2018, pick 58)
Acres 4.5/6
Taranto 4/6
E.Langdon 3/6
Harmes 3/6
Blakely 3/6
Prestia 2/6
Kelly 1.5/6

This didn't really tell us anything new. Brayshaw, De Goey, Dunkley, O'Meara, Taranto and to a lesser extent McLean, Steele, Miller are all recognised as potential breakout players.

Some other less considered names (all sub 2018 averages)
Fiorini - 3/6
Berry - 4/6
Parfitt - 3.5/6
Milera - 4/6
Z.Jones - 3/6
Hopper - 5/6
Powell-Pepper - 4.5/6
McCluggage - 4/6

Certainly breakout players do have a trend of being able to complete 'big' jumps from year to year - Murphy went 80 to 99 to 113, Merrett went 63 to 88 to 112, Kelly went 70 to 87 to 114, Ward went 62, 89, 107, Cotchin went 79 to 100 to 116, Gaff 71 to 87 to 104 etc.
But without knowing what non-breakout players do, this information isn't very useful. If it was 20% of all players who did this went on to breakout, I'd like my chances (once you whittle out obvious no's etc). But if it was only 5%, it's still as risky as not doing any research at all. Too hard to analyse 200+ players (and it's easy to remember which players are premiums, not so easy to remember who went from 64 to 85 and then plateaued).

I'd love to know how many 6/6 players there have been that met this criteria to see the % hit but unfortunately that's probably a step too far.

Another trend I looked at was players who broke out in their 3rd years.
Selwood went from 98 (2nd year) to 110, Cripps 96 to 107, Shuey 94 to 103, Gibbs 93 to 106, Treloar 87 to 108, Libba 83 to 108, Rockliff 86 to 113, Merrett 88 to 112. Sort of in between that 85-95 mark seems safe, but only Taranto is in that mark as a player entering his 3rd year and averaging in the ballpark of 85-95 (averaging 89).

How about the dreaded 2nd year blues? We've seen from memory only Oliver (70 to 111), Fyfe (72 to 108), and Bont (78 to 103) really become viable premium options, with Martin going from 78 to 99 being an option as a forward but not as a mid.
Oliver went from 67.7% TOG to 77.1%. Fyfe 77.2 to 88.4%. Bont 76.9% to 84%. Dusty from 78.2% to 84.4%.
The only players here are Sier, Worpel and Higgins (first years who averaged between 70-80). Worpel averaged only 73.3%, Sier 63%, and Higgins 71.8%.
Technically Fritsch is in the category but have skipped over because doubt he plays enough midfield time - however with his body shape and marking ability, if he gets midfield time....where have we seen this before?
If any appear to be playing high game time in JLT, particularly in the midfield, and have objectively increased their endurance this year (actual time trials and what not, not just "tearing pre-season up") - they could be options. 4 isn't a large sample size to go off, and shows there isn't going to be one every year, but if you're able to pick the 5th, you're already ahead of the pack - at these players levels, you're looking at 5% ownership max. Sier however likely though is surely not going to lift to 110 with Treloar, Adams, De Goey, Pendlebury, Sidebottom, Grundy, Beams all there as 100 options and Howe 95ish etc.

I think factoring in the opportunity factor gives both Brisbane guys (Berry 4/6, McCluggage 4/6) and the GWS guys (Hopper 5/6, Taranto 4/6) a strong chance to be the new guy that goes from approx 80 to 110, while decreasing it for Collingwood guys (Sier, Phillips). Taranto certainly has the history of 3rd year players on his side - not sure I'll have the balls to take any but certainly I've now swung from looking at more medium midpricers (B.Crouch, Hannebery, Miles, Libba) to trying to see if I can figure out a way to get as least risk in picking a breakout option.

Much like the premium forwards, the stats probably don't tell us anything groundbreaking, nor does it show the other side (i.e. players that break your season rather than make it). However, my rankings in a conclusion after that research are for breakout options:
As mids - most likely as it stands now
1. Brayshaw 2. Taranto 3. Steele 4. Berry 5. O'Meara 6. Hopper/McCluggage

As forwards
1. Dunkley 2. De Goey 3. Parfitt 4. Kelly 5. McLean

As players to avoid 2nd year blues and be in that 1 in every 2-3 years jumper
1. Worpel 2. Kelly 3. Sier 4. Higgins

 

[Deliverance]

Bored at work on a PH, so another look through stats to see if I could find a trend to share.

So had a look at 40 current midfielders who have at some stage averaged 105+ in a year in their careers (M.Crouch, Sloane, Gibbs, Neale, Zorko, Cripps, Thomas, Murphy, Treloar, Beams, Pendlebury, Sidebottom, Merrett, Heppell, Fyfe, Mundy, Dangerfield, Selwood, Ablett, Coniglio, Kelly, Ward, Deledio, Mitchell, Oliver, Gray, Rockliff, Boak, Martin, Cotchin, Steven, Hannebery, Parker, Kennedy, Gaff, Yeo, Shuey, Macrae, Bont, Libba).

Basically the average breakout year (soft floor of 105, sometimes considered as low as 103 though) came from: a 4th to 5th year midfielder, with around 60 games, 21-23 years old at the start of the season, who improved their average by around 15-20 points the previous year (i.e. for a 2019 breakout player, they improved their 2017 average by 15-20 in 2018), who was a first round pick and averaged 90 +-5 in the previous season (so 2018).

Then arbitrarily, because boredom/slow work day, looked at which boxes each player ticked.

E.g. Matt Crouch went 59, 68, 92, 110 in his first 4 seasons. He had played 47 games before his season of 110, he was 21 years old at the start of the season, he had had a jump of 24 points in his previous year, and his most recent season average was 92. This gives him a score of 5/6 for the factors.

Out of the 40 premiums:
Murphy, Kelly, Cotchin all had a 6/6 rating
The average was 4, with a median of 4.5. Very basic numbers - average got killed by the 2nd year guys - Bont, Fyfe, Oliver, Martin.

Looking through the list of players that might be around there:
Brayshaw meets all the criteria (6/6)
De Goey 5.5/6
Miller is 5/6 /(1/2 for both pick 29 and a jump of 13)
Dunkley is 4.5/6 (only 43 games, 1/2 for being pick 25)
McLean 4.5 (not a big enough jump in 2018, 1/2 for being pick 26)
Steele 4.5 (same as McLean)
O'Meara is 5/6 (25 years old)
Phillips is 4.5 (1/2 for a jump of 14 in 2018, pick 58)
Acres 4.5/6
Taranto 4/6
E.Langdon 3/6
Harmes 3/6
Blakely 3/6
Prestia 2/6
Kelly 1.5/6

This didn't really tell us anything new. Brayshaw, De Goey, Dunkley, O'Meara, Taranto and to a lesser extent McLean, Steele, Miller are all recognised as potential breakout players.

Some other less considered names (all sub 2018 averages)
Fiorini - 3/6
Berry - 4/6
Parfitt - 3.5/6
Milera - 4/6
Z.Jones - 3/6
Hopper - 5/6
Powell-Pepper - 4.5/6
McCluggage - 4/6

Certainly breakout players do have a trend of being able to complete 'big' jumps from year to year - Murphy went 80 to 99 to 113, Merrett went 63 to 88 to 112, Kelly went 70 to 87 to 114, Ward went 62, 89, 107, Cotchin went 79 to 100 to 116, Gaff 71 to 87 to 104 etc.
But without knowing what non-breakout players do, this information isn't very useful. If it was 20% of all players who did this went on to breakout, I'd like my chances (once you whittle out obvious no's etc). But if it was only 5%, it's still as risky as not doing any research at all. Too hard to analyse 200+ players (and it's easy to remember which players are premiums, not so easy to remember who went from 64 to 85 and then plateaued).

I'd love to know how many 6/6 players there have been that met this criteria to see the % hit but unfortunately that's probably a step too far.

Another trend I looked at was players who broke out in their 3rd years.
Selwood went from 98 (2nd year) to 110, Cripps 96 to 107, Shuey 94 to 103, Gibbs 93 to 106, Treloar 87 to 108, Libba 83 to 108, Rockliff 86 to 113, Merrett 88 to 112. Sort of in between that 85-95 mark seems safe, but only Taranto is in that mark as a player entering his 3rd year and averaging in the ballpark of 85-95 (averaging 89).

How about the dreaded 2nd year blues? We've seen from memory only Oliver (70 to 111), Fyfe (72 to 108), and Bont (78 to 103) really become viable premium options, with Martin going from 78 to 99 being an option as a forward but not as a mid.
Oliver went from 67.7% TOG to 77.1%. Fyfe 77.2 to 88.4%. Bont 76.9% to 84%. Dusty from 78.2% to 84.4%.
The only players here are Sier, Worpel and Higgins (first years who averaged between 70-80). Worpel averaged only 73.3%, Sier 63%, and Higgins 71.8%.
Technically Fritsch is in the category but have skipped over because doubt he plays enough midfield time - however with his body shape and marking ability, if he gets midfield time....where have we seen this before?
If any appear to be playing high game time in JLT, particularly in the midfield, and have objectively increased their endurance this year (actual time trials and what not, not just "tearing pre-season up") - they could be options. 4 isn't a large sample size to go off, and shows there isn't going to be one every year, but if you're able to pick the 5th, you're already ahead of the pack - at these players levels, you're looking at 5% ownership max. Sier however likely though is surely not going to lift to 110 with Treloar, Adams, De Goey, Pendlebury, Sidebottom, Grundy, Beams all there as 100 options and Howe 95ish etc.

I think factoring in the opportunity factor gives both Brisbane guys (Berry 4/6, McCluggage 4/6) and the GWS guys (Hopper 5/6, Taranto 4/6) a strong chance to be the new guy that goes from approx 80 to 110, while decreasing it for Collingwood guys (Sier, Phillips). Taranto certainly has the history of 3rd year players on his side - not sure I'll have the balls to take any but certainly I've now swung from looking at more medium midpricers (B.Crouch, Hannebery, Miles, Libba) to trying to see if I can figure out a way to get as least risk in picking a breakout option.

Much like the premium forwards, the stats probably don't tell us anything groundbreaking, nor does it show the other side (i.e. players that break your season rather than make it). However, my rankings in a conclusion after that research are for breakout options:
As mids - most likely as it stands now
1. Brayshaw 2. Taranto 3. Steele 4. Berry 5. O'Meara 6. Hopper/McCluggage

As forwards
1. Dunkley 2. De Goey 3. Parfitt 4. Kelly 5. McLean

As players to avoid 2nd year blues and be in that 1 in every 2-3 years jumper
1. Worpel 2. Kelly 3. Sier 4. Higgins

 

[King_Steele]

View attachment 611063

 

[Here2tellyouwhy]

Bored at work on a PH, so another look through stats to see if I could find a trend to share.

So had a look at 40 current midfielders who have at some stage averaged 105+ in a year in their careers (M.Crouch, Sloane, Gibbs, Neale, Zorko, Cripps, Thomas, Murphy, Treloar, Beams, Pendlebury, Sidebottom, Merrett, Heppell, Fyfe, Mundy, Dangerfield, Selwood, Ablett, Coniglio, Kelly, Ward, Deledio, Mitchell, Oliver, Gray, Rockliff, Boak, Martin, Cotchin, Steven, Hannebery, Parker, Kennedy, Gaff, Yeo, Shuey, Macrae, Bont, Libba).

Basically the average breakout year (soft floor of 105, sometimes considered as low as 103 though) came from: a 4th to 5th year midfielder, with around 60 games, 21-23 years old at the start of the season, who improved their average by around 15-20 points the previous year (i.e. for a 2019 breakout player, they improved their 2017 average by 15-20 in 2018), who was a first round pick and averaged 90 +-5 in the previous season (so 2018).

Then arbitrarily, because boredom/slow work day, looked at which boxes each player ticked.

E.g. Matt Crouch went 59, 68, 92, 110 in his first 4 seasons. He had played 47 games before his season of 110, he was 21 years old at the start of the season, he had had a jump of 24 points in his previous year, and his most recent season average was 92. This gives him a score of 5/6 for the factors.

Out of the 40 premiums:
Murphy, Kelly, Cotchin all had a 6/6 rating
The average was 4, with a median of 4.5. Very basic numbers - average got killed by the 2nd year guys - Bont, Fyfe, Oliver, Martin.

Looking through the list of players that might be around there:
Brayshaw meets all the criteria (6/6)
De Goey 5.5/6
Miller is 5/6 /(1/2 for both pick 29 and a jump of 13)
Dunkley is 4.5/6 (only 43 games, 1/2 for being pick 25)
McLean 4.5 (not a big enough jump in 2018, 1/2 for being pick 26)
Steele 4.5 (same as McLean)
O'Meara is 5/6 (25 years old)
Phillips is 4.5 (1/2 for a jump of 14 in 2018, pick 58)
Acres 4.5/6
Taranto 4/6
E.Langdon 3/6
Harmes 3/6
Blakely 3/6
Prestia 2/6
Kelly 1.5/6

This didn't really tell us anything new. Brayshaw, De Goey, Dunkley, O'Meara, Taranto and to a lesser extent McLean, Steele, Miller are all recognised as potential breakout players.

Some other less considered names (all sub 2018 averages)
Fiorini - 3/6
Berry - 4/6
Parfitt - 3.5/6
Milera - 4/6
Z.Jones - 3/6
Hopper - 5/6
Powell-Pepper - 4.5/6
McCluggage - 4/6

Certainly breakout players do have a trend of being able to complete 'big' jumps from year to year - Murphy went 80 to 99 to 113, Merrett went 63 to 88 to 112, Kelly went 70 to 87 to 114, Ward went 62, 89, 107, Cotchin went 79 to 100 to 116, Gaff 71 to 87 to 104 etc.
But without knowing what non-breakout players do, this information isn't very useful. If it was 20% of all players who did this went on to breakout, I'd like my chances (once you whittle out obvious no's etc). But if it was only 5%, it's still as risky as not doing any research at all. Too hard to analyse 200+ players (and it's easy to remember which players are premiums, not so easy to remember who went from 64 to 85 and then plateaued).

I'd love to know how many 6/6 players there have been that met this criteria to see the % hit but unfortunately that's probably a step too far.

Another trend I looked at was players who broke out in their 3rd years.
Selwood went from 98 (2nd year) to 110, Cripps 96 to 107, Shuey 94 to 103, Gibbs 93 to 106, Treloar 87 to 108, Libba 83 to 108, Rockliff 86 to 113, Merrett 88 to 112. Sort of in between that 85-95 mark seems safe, but only Taranto is in that mark as a player entering his 3rd year and averaging in the ballpark of 85-95 (averaging 89).

How about the dreaded 2nd year blues? We've seen from memory only Oliver (70 to 111), Fyfe (72 to 108), and Bont (78 to 103) really become viable premium options, with Martin going from 78 to 99 being an option as a forward but not as a mid.
Oliver went from 67.7% TOG to 77.1%. Fyfe 77.2 to 88.4%. Bont 76.9% to 84%. Dusty from 78.2% to 84.4%.
The only players here are Sier, Worpel and Higgins (first years who averaged between 70-80). Worpel averaged only 73.3%, Sier 63%, and Higgins 71.8%.
Technically Fritsch is in the category but have skipped over because doubt he plays enough midfield time - however with his body shape and marking ability, if he gets midfield time....where have we seen this before?
If any appear to be playing high game time in JLT, particularly in the midfield, and have objectively increased their endurance this year (actual time trials and what not, not just "tearing pre-season up") - they could be options. 4 isn't a large sample size to go off, and shows there isn't going to be one every year, but if you're able to pick the 5th, you're already ahead of the pack - at these players levels, you're looking at 5% ownership max. Sier however likely though is surely not going to lift to 110 with Treloar, Adams, De Goey, Pendlebury, Sidebottom, Grundy, Beams all there as 100 options and Howe 95ish etc.

I think factoring in the opportunity factor gives both Brisbane guys (Berry 4/6, McCluggage 4/6) and the GWS guys (Hopper 5/6, Taranto 4/6) a strong chance to be the new guy that goes from approx 80 to 110, while decreasing it for Collingwood guys (Sier, Phillips). Taranto certainly has the history of 3rd year players on his side - not sure I'll have the balls to take any but certainly I've now swung from looking at more medium midpricers (B.Crouch, Hannebery, Miles, Libba) to trying to see if I can figure out a way to get as least risk in picking a breakout option.

Much like the premium forwards, the stats probably don't tell us anything groundbreaking, nor does it show the other side (i.e. players that break your season rather than make it). However, my rankings in a conclusion after that research are for breakout options:
As mids - most likely as it stands now
1. Brayshaw 2. Taranto 3. Steele 4. Berry 5. O'Meara 6. Hopper/McCluggage

As forwards
1. Dunkley 2. De Goey 3. Parfitt 4. Kelly 5. McLean

As players to avoid 2nd year blues and be in that 1 in every 2-3 years jumper
1. Worpel 2. Kelly 3. Sier 4. Higgins

TL;DR

It was Barrass

 

[Keg on legs]

Bored at work on a PH, so another look through stats to see if I could find a trend to share.

So had a look at 40 current midfielders who have at some stage averaged 105+ in a year in their careers (M.Crouch, Sloane, Gibbs, Neale, Zorko, Cripps, Thomas, Murphy, Treloar, Beams, Pendlebury, Sidebottom, Merrett, Heppell, Fyfe, Mundy, Dangerfield, Selwood, Ablett, Coniglio, Kelly, Ward, Deledio, Mitchell, Oliver, Gray, Rockliff, Boak, Martin, Cotchin, Steven, Hannebery, Parker, Kennedy, Gaff, Yeo, Shuey, Macrae, Bont, Libba).

Basically the average breakout year (soft floor of 105, sometimes considered as low as 103 though) came from: a 4th to 5th year midfielder, with around 60 games, 21-23 years old at the start of the season, who improved their average by around 15-20 points the previous year (i.e. for a 2019 breakout player, they improved their 2017 average by 15-20 in 2018), who was a first round pick and averaged 90 +-5 in the previous season (so 2018).

Then arbitrarily, because boredom/slow work day, looked at which boxes each player ticked.

E.g. Matt Crouch went 59, 68, 92, 110 in his first 4 seasons. He had played 47 games before his season of 110, he was 21 years old at the start of the season, he had had a jump of 24 points in his previous year, and his most recent season average was 92. This gives him a score of 5/6 for the factors.

Out of the 40 premiums:
Murphy, Kelly, Cotchin all had a 6/6 rating
The average was 4, with a median of 4.5. Very basic numbers - average got killed by the 2nd year guys - Bont, Fyfe, Oliver, Martin.

Looking through the list of players that might be around there:
Brayshaw meets all the criteria (6/6)
De Goey 5.5/6
Miller is 5/6 /(1/2 for both pick 29 and a jump of 13)
Dunkley is 4.5/6 (only 43 games, 1/2 for being pick 25)
McLean 4.5 (not a big enough jump in 2018, 1/2 for being pick 26)
Steele 4.5 (same as McLean)
O'Meara is 5/6 (25 years old)
Phillips is 4.5 (1/2 for a jump of 14 in 2018, pick 58)
Acres 4.5/6
Taranto 4/6
E.Langdon 3/6
Harmes 3/6
Blakely 3/6
Prestia 2/6
Kelly 1.5/6

This didn't really tell us anything new. Brayshaw, De Goey, Dunkley, O'Meara, Taranto and to a lesser extent McLean, Steele, Miller are all recognised as potential breakout players.

Some other less considered names (all sub 2018 averages)
Fiorini - 3/6
Berry - 4/6
Parfitt - 3.5/6
Milera - 4/6
Z.Jones - 3/6
Hopper - 5/6
Powell-Pepper - 4.5/6
McCluggage - 4/6

Certainly breakout players do have a trend of being able to complete 'big' jumps from year to year - Murphy went 80 to 99 to 113, Merrett went 63 to 88 to 112, Kelly went 70 to 87 to 114, Ward went 62, 89, 107, Cotchin went 79 to 100 to 116, Gaff 71 to 87 to 104 etc.
But without knowing what non-breakout players do, this information isn't very useful. If it was 20% of all players who did this went on to breakout, I'd like my chances (once you whittle out obvious no's etc). But if it was only 5%, it's still as risky as not doing any research at all. Too hard to analyse 200+ players (and it's easy to remember which players are premiums, not so easy to remember who went from 64 to 85 and then plateaued).

I'd love to know how many 6/6 players there have been that met this criteria to see the % hit but unfortunately that's probably a step too far.

Another trend I looked at was players who broke out in their 3rd years.
Selwood went from 98 (2nd year) to 110, Cripps 96 to 107, Shuey 94 to 103, Gibbs 93 to 106, Treloar 87 to 108, Libba 83 to 108, Rockliff 86 to 113, Merrett 88 to 112. Sort of in between that 85-95 mark seems safe, but only Taranto is in that mark as a player entering his 3rd year and averaging in the ballpark of 85-95 (averaging 89).

How about the dreaded 2nd year blues? We've seen from memory only Oliver (70 to 111), Fyfe (72 to 108), and Bont (78 to 103) really become viable premium options, with Martin going from 78 to 99 being an option as a forward but not as a mid.
Oliver went from 67.7% TOG to 77.1%. Fyfe 77.2 to 88.4%. Bont 76.9% to 84%. Dusty from 78.2% to 84.4%.
The only players here are Sier, Worpel and Higgins (first years who averaged between 70-80). Worpel averaged only 73.3%, Sier 63%, and Higgins 71.8%.
Technically Fritsch is in the category but have skipped over because doubt he plays enough midfield time - however with his body shape and marking ability, if he gets midfield time....where have we seen this before?
If any appear to be playing high game time in JLT, particularly in the midfield, and have objectively increased their endurance this year (actual time trials and what not, not just "tearing pre-season up") - they could be options. 4 isn't a large sample size to go off, and shows there isn't going to be one every year, but if you're able to pick the 5th, you're already ahead of the pack - at these players levels, you're looking at 5% ownership max. Sier however likely though is surely not going to lift to 110 with Treloar, Adams, De Goey, Pendlebury, Sidebottom, Grundy, Beams all there as 100 options and Howe 95ish etc.

I think factoring in the opportunity factor gives both Brisbane guys (Berry 4/6, McCluggage 4/6) and the GWS guys (Hopper 5/6, Taranto 4/6) a strong chance to be the new guy that goes from approx 80 to 110, while decreasing it for Collingwood guys (Sier, Phillips). Taranto certainly has the history of 3rd year players on his side - not sure I'll have the balls to take any but certainly I've now swung from looking at more medium midpricers (B.Crouch, Hannebery, Miles, Libba) to trying to see if I can figure out a way to get as least risk in picking a breakout option.

Much like the premium forwards, the stats probably don't tell us anything groundbreaking, nor does it show the other side (i.e. players that break your season rather than make it). However, my rankings in a conclusion after that research are for breakout options:
As mids - most likely as it stands now
1. Brayshaw 2. Taranto 3. Steele 4. Berry 5. O'Meara 6. Hopper/McCluggage

As forwards
1. Dunkley 2. De Goey 3. Parfitt 4. Kelly 5. McLean

As players to avoid 2nd year blues and be in that 1 in every 2-3 years jumper
1. Worpel 2. Kelly 3. Sier 4. Higgins

Feck me. You did this on work time? I'm calling your boss.




And thanking him for rostering you on a PH

 

[turtles]

Bored at work on a PH, so another look through stats to see if I could find a trend to share.

So had a look at 40 current midfielders who have at some stage averaged 105+ in a year in their careers (M.Crouch, Sloane, Gibbs, Neale, Zorko, Cripps, Thomas, Murphy, Treloar, Beams, Pendlebury, Sidebottom, Merrett, Heppell, Fyfe, Mundy, Dangerfield, Selwood, Ablett, Coniglio, Kelly, Ward, Deledio, Mitchell, Oliver, Gray, Rockliff, Boak, Martin, Cotchin, Steven, Hannebery, Parker, Kennedy, Gaff, Yeo, Shuey, Macrae, Bont, Libba).

Basically the average breakout year (soft floor of 105, sometimes considered as low as 103 though) came from: a 4th to 5th year midfielder, with around 60 games, 21-23 years old at the start of the season, who improved their average by around 15-20 points the previous year (i.e. for a 2019 breakout player, they improved their 2017 average by 15-20 in 2018), who was a first round pick and averaged 90 +-5 in the previous season (so 2018).

Then arbitrarily, because boredom/slow work day, looked at which boxes each player ticked.

E.g. Matt Crouch went 59, 68, 92, 110 in his first 4 seasons. He had played 47 games before his season of 110, he was 21 years old at the start of the season, he had had a jump of 24 points in his previous year, and his most recent season average was 92. This gives him a score of 5/6 for the factors.

Out of the 40 premiums:
Murphy, Kelly, Cotchin all had a 6/6 rating
The average was 4, with a median of 4.5. Very basic numbers - average got killed by the 2nd year guys - Bont, Fyfe, Oliver, Martin.

Looking through the list of players that might be around there:
Brayshaw meets all the criteria (6/6)
De Goey 5.5/6
Miller is 5/6 /(1/2 for both pick 29 and a jump of 13)
Dunkley is 4.5/6 (only 43 games, 1/2 for being pick 25)
McLean 4.5 (not a big enough jump in 2018, 1/2 for being pick 26)
Steele 4.5 (same as McLean)
O'Meara is 5/6 (25 years old)
Phillips is 4.5 (1/2 for a jump of 14 in 2018, pick 58)
Acres 4.5/6
Taranto 4/6
E.Langdon 3/6
Harmes 3/6
Blakely 3/6
Prestia 2/6
Kelly 1.5/6

This didn't really tell us anything new. Brayshaw, De Goey, Dunkley, O'Meara, Taranto and to a lesser extent McLean, Steele, Miller are all recognised as potential breakout players.

Some other less considered names (all sub 2018 averages)
Fiorini - 3/6
Berry - 4/6
Parfitt - 3.5/6
Milera - 4/6
Z.Jones - 3/6
Hopper - 5/6
Powell-Pepper - 4.5/6
McCluggage - 4/6

Certainly breakout players do have a trend of being able to complete 'big' jumps from year to year - Murphy went 80 to 99 to 113, Merrett went 63 to 88 to 112, Kelly went 70 to 87 to 114, Ward went 62, 89, 107, Cotchin went 79 to 100 to 116, Gaff 71 to 87 to 104 etc.
But without knowing what non-breakout players do, this information isn't very useful. If it was 20% of all players who did this went on to breakout, I'd like my chances (once you whittle out obvious no's etc). But if it was only 5%, it's still as risky as not doing any research at all. Too hard to analyse 200+ players (and it's easy to remember which players are premiums, not so easy to remember who went from 64 to 85 and then plateaued).

I'd love to know how many 6/6 players there have been that met this criteria to see the % hit but unfortunately that's probably a step too far.

Another trend I looked at was players who broke out in their 3rd years.
Selwood went from 98 (2nd year) to 110, Cripps 96 to 107, Shuey 94 to 103, Gibbs 93 to 106, Treloar 87 to 108, Libba 83 to 108, Rockliff 86 to 113, Merrett 88 to 112. Sort of in between that 85-95 mark seems safe, but only Taranto is in that mark as a player entering his 3rd year and averaging in the ballpark of 85-95 (averaging 89).

How about the dreaded 2nd year blues? We've seen from memory only Oliver (70 to 111), Fyfe (72 to 108), and Bont (78 to 103) really become viable premium options, with Martin going from 78 to 99 being an option as a forward but not as a mid.
Oliver went from 67.7% TOG to 77.1%. Fyfe 77.2 to 88.4%. Bont 76.9% to 84%. Dusty from 78.2% to 84.4%.
The only players here are Sier, Worpel and Higgins (first years who averaged between 70-80). Worpel averaged only 73.3%, Sier 63%, and Higgins 71.8%.
Technically Fritsch is in the category but have skipped over because doubt he plays enough midfield time - however with his body shape and marking ability, if he gets midfield time....where have we seen this before?
If any appear to be playing high game time in JLT, particularly in the midfield, and have objectively increased their endurance this year (actual time trials and what not, not just "tearing pre-season up") - they could be options. 4 isn't a large sample size to go off, and shows there isn't going to be one every year, but if you're able to pick the 5th, you're already ahead of the pack - at these players levels, you're looking at 5% ownership max. Sier however likely though is surely not going to lift to 110 with Treloar, Adams, De Goey, Pendlebury, Sidebottom, Grundy, Beams all there as 100 options and Howe 95ish etc.

I think factoring in the opportunity factor gives both Brisbane guys (Berry 4/6, McCluggage 4/6) and the GWS guys (Hopper 5/6, Taranto 4/6) a strong chance to be the new guy that goes from approx 80 to 110, while decreasing it for Collingwood guys (Sier, Phillips). Taranto certainly has the history of 3rd year players on his side - not sure I'll have the balls to take any but certainly I've now swung from looking at more medium midpricers (B.Crouch, Hannebery, Miles, Libba) to trying to see if I can figure out a way to get as least risk in picking a breakout option.

Much like the premium forwards, the stats probably don't tell us anything groundbreaking, nor does it show the other side (i.e. players that break your season rather than make it). However, my rankings in a conclusion after that research are for breakout options:
As mids - most likely as it stands now
1. Brayshaw 2. Taranto 3. Steele 4. Berry 5. O'Meara 6. Hopper/McCluggage

As forwards
1. Dunkley 2. De Goey 3. Parfitt 4. Kelly 5. McLean

As players to avoid 2nd year blues and be in that 1 in every 2-3 years jumper
1. Worpel 2. Kelly 3. Sier 4. Higgins

This is quite interesting and i thought id add just a little to your indepth research.
I took a look at midfielders who have averaged 105+ atleast once.
I have excluded mature agers like zorko and barlow.
I have players whose first season was 2005 or later due to available statistics, this excludes players like ablett, hodge, goddard etc diminishing the validity of it especially for the later seasons as the sample size decreases.
Errors possible due to missing a season on not debuting in their first year

The safest midfielders appear to be players in their 6th, 7th or 8th season.
Increase in 105+ seasons occur mainly from year 3 to 6.
Players in their 3rd and 4th season appear to have the most breakout seasons.
However 50% and 30% respectively went under 90.
Players you identified appear to be the potential breakout mids.
Selecting them in the correct year is next test.
You've got me really interested in a few more players.

 

[SterlingArcher]

Feck me. You did this on work time? I'm calling your boss.




And thanking him for rostering you on a PH

On call roster basically so if nothing exciting happens, I sit around doing nothing. Some times I don't get a toilet break, other times I do a bunch of pointless stat hunting.

This is quite interesting and i thought id add just a little to your indepth research.
I took a look at midfielders who have averaged 105+ atleast once.
I have excluded mature agers like zorko and barlow.
I have players whose first season was 2005 or later due to available statistics, this excludes players like ablett, hodge, goddard etc diminishing the validity of it especially for the later seasons as the sample size decreases.
Errors possible due to missing a season on not debuting in their first year
View attachment 611527
The safest midfielders appear to be players in their 6th, 7th or 8th season.
Increase in 105+ seasons occur mainly from year 3 to 6.
Players in their 3rd and 4th season appear to have the most breakout seasons.
However 50% and 30% respectively went under 90.
Players you identified appear to be the potential breakout mids.
Selecting them in the correct year is next test.
You've got me really interested in a few more players.

Hmm! This brings me back to thinking everything is lining up for Jaeger - obvious talent, opportunity to become his sides number 1 mid, another season of fitness under his belt, 7th season overall...

 

[ubeaut]

JOM surely first in line to get the tag now?

 

[BuddysBuddy23]

JOM surely first in line to get the tag now?

Thats my concern. Love JOM. Loved him as soon as he stepped on the scene. Very happy he’s now in the poo’s and wee’s Colours. Can see him copping Titch’s tags now however. Can still see him increasing on last years avg but not enough to be that top 8 mid

 

[Geelong_Bisons_#36]

Mid price madness indeed.
Haven't been keeping up to date on much over the off season... any info on the following players would be much appreciated:

Def:
P.Hanley ($296K) injured last year? Training at the moment?
D.Roberton ($297K) I'm assuming will be a popular pick. Back training?
B.Smith($332) ??
G.Birchall ($205K) - Will he get back to playing? I understand he's only running at training at the moment.
Mid:
T.Scully ($335K) Recovered from his injury last year yet? In training?
A.Miles ($342K) Could be a popular pick if can spend a lot of time in the middle.
D.Hannerbury ($326K) New club, back to his best? Training well? Or past it?
T.Libba ($300K) Training at the moment?

Fwd:
T.Greene ($355K) Easy pick if fit and playing Rd1.

Other possibilities include:
Rockcliff - is he past it for SC now?
A.Hall - too many other Nth mids to take points away?
T.Boyd - probably going to get laughed at for this suggestion but if I'm not mistaken will be the Bulldogs No.1 ruck yes? Should get plenty of game time and a left field ruck option.
R.Bastinac - on the outer at Nth? Only 2 games last year. Has career high avg of 93 and solid 80ish avg last few years except for last year. More games at Bris?

I could go on.

Thoughts people? TIA

 

[turtles]

Hmm! This brings me back to thinking everything is lining up for Jaeger - obvious talent, opportunity to become his sides number 1 mid, another season of fitness under his belt, 7th season overall...

I remember his first season, thought he was an absolute certain future brownlow medalist.
I hope his injuries are not ones that limit him from reaching the potential he had.
I dont know enough about them for me to select him, but if he reaches his potential he will be a great selection.

 

[BuddysBuddy23]

Mid price madness indeed.
Haven't been keeping up to date on much over the off season... any info on the following players would be much appreciated:

Def:
P.Hanley ($296K) injured last year? Training at the moment?
D.Roberton ($297K) I'm assuming will be a popular pick. Back training?
B.Smith($332) ??
G.Birchall ($205K) - Will he get back to playing? I understand he's only running at training at the moment.
Mid:
T.Scully ($335K) Recovered from his injury last year yet? In training?
A.Miles ($342K) Could be a popular pick if can spend a lot of time in the middle.
D.Hannerbury ($326K) New club, back to his best? Training well? Or past it?
T.Libba ($300K) Training at the moment?

Fwd:
T.Greene ($355K) Easy pick if fit and playing Rd1.

Other possibilities include:
Rockcliff - is he past it for SC now?
A.Hall - too many other Nth mids to take points away?
T.Boyd - probably going to get laughed at for this suggestion but if I'm not mistaken will be the Bulldogs No.1 ruck yes? Should get plenty of game time and a left field ruck option.
R.Bastinac - on the outer at Nth? Only 2 games last year. Has career high avg of 93 and solid 80ish avg last few years except for last year. More games at Bris?

I could go on.

Thoughts people? TIA

Definitely a year that could see so many different possible selections, and the decline of Guns n Rookies in many teams. So many mid priced selections to choose from, with a few being fallen premos too. Generally I’m against mid priced madness but with so many options out there, and decent players too I might add, I’ve had all of Roberton,Smith,Birchall,Miles,Hanley,Libba,Hanners and Greene at different stages of this pre season. I think Roberton and Greene if fit will be automatic selections in a lot of sides(Although I’m not convinced on Roberton, something about the Aints worry me),Birchall’s paper mache body has me scared off him, Don’t know enough about Hanley to comment. B.Smith intrigues me. I’ve had him in, taken him out, had him in, taken him out all pre season. I really rate him as a player and SC scorer. Definite value for his price and can see him avg 85-90. Laird in the same side with a similar role is the only thing that stops me from starting him ATM(Currently out of my side). Miles and Libba in a similair boat, great value and both can score well when on the park. Scully’s a no from me. Believe he isn’t training with the main group. Hanners also a no(I’d go Libba and or Miles before Hanners). Greene definitely has to be considered at that price. Outside of his fitness, only question mark I have is what’s his role in 2019? Stay at home fwd pocket or roaming up the ground with stints on ball? Dominated the Swans in the first final last year. Then Maynard? toweled him up the following week. I’d rather see him up the ground with stints in the pocket. Hope this helps, others on here will have more insight but just my two bobs worth

 

[Suns of Anarchy]

P.Hanley ($296K) injured last year? Training at the moment?

He's had a good pre season. But too many injuries, including soft tissues, and on the wrong side of 30 for my liking.
His last 5 games of 2017 he averaged 100 after an interrupted season (hammy and family reasons) and didn't get on the park last year with a shoulder.
If he starts off with a flyer then I'll look at him then.

 

[Asho81]

Main mid-pricer I’m punting on is Newman @ Carlton..... not seeing him in many teams. Any reason for this?


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app