Analysis Mid season: Best 22 for Premiership Success

[Firestarter]

No one will ever say Waite. So the ratio of Brown to Petrie will be interesting.

 

[Moti]

No one will ever say Waite. So the ratio of Brown to Petrie will be interesting.

Brown is the easier target because he is younger and hasn't had the emotional investment that someone like Drew has. Plus he also plays the 2nd ruck role.

 

[Woodson]

Speed, tackling pressure, clearances. That is what he is meant to bring. We lack depth in that area so if he delivers, I imagine we will make room somewhere for him, probably at the expense of a small forward.

Well, that's gonna be interesting. If all goes to plan Moti, LT better STEP UP sooner than later. LT is vulnerable with his Houdini disappearing acts. Loving the fact that North have FOUR of the JUICIEST games coming up. Back in 1978, North started 10-1… dropped four in a row. yet still go to the BIG DANCE and led at HT

 

[Woodson]

I'd have to have Jacobs in for who not sure, but one of Garner, NDS or Anderson who ever drops away. Big call Wood in for Brown, but I can understand it.

Don't get me wrong Rooboy 96, Brown is clear amongst North's BEST 22 but I'm deliberately left him out of the OP team to create a stir / discussion. Only a handful get where I'm coming from. Moti is all over it with his dissection of the output of the our Big 3 in the last FIVE weeks. Excellent stuff Moti.

The angle I'm trying to get across is that BENNY BROWN is the GUY who will TAKE North to that next level providing these measures are assured:

- HOLD HIS MARKS convert truly at 80%
- HAVE CRUMBERS NEAR the CONTEST FRom a Brown clunked attempt

too often we've seen Brown lagging because of a missed opportunity gone begging (12 point turn around) that has Brown unable to keep up in pressurising the rebounding defenders. Where are his teammates?? Why allow Brown to exhaust himself? That explains why he can't play four quarters yet.

You can't WIN a flag having token efforts from some players. HELLO LT.

Benny Brown's 20.9 so far is UNDERS from his ample opportunities missed (19 other chances gone begging). Should already be 30+ goals. A BROWN inside 50 mark is as safe as it gets. Only has 18 inside 50 marks. That number should be OVER 30. Waite has 32 (4th in the AFL).

Bad kicking is bad football… a cliche that rings ever so true. Cannot be denied. LT is a miserable 14.15. But has more inside 50 marks than Brown!!

After H&A season, I expect Brown to have kicked over 50 goals. 40 Marks inside 50 surely can't be too much to ask? for the second half considering he dropped 19 already!!
LT to have also 35+ to his name. LT is on track to break his career best inside 50 marks. 25 from 2011.

Daw already has 4 marks inside 50 from 2 games. Brown has 18 from 11 games.
Daw already has 23 hit outs vs Brown's 29.
Do the math.

 

[Too_many_talls]

Good to have some thought-provoking team selections.

I've got to say I'm warming to the idea of giving Daw more of a run in the second half of the year. He offers something different to our other forwards, and is a much better backup ruck option.

But, we can't play Daw plus the other three in the forward line. And I presume that we like to reserve our rotations for midfielders, not ruckman and forwards. So the only way it works if if Daw comes in for a resting Waite, Petrie or Brown (or Goldie). I think we need to do this.

Lindsay is no long term lock but he's the best option available at the moment, and has runs on the board. Needs to produce in the 2nd half.

My biggest concern for big games and finals is how we deal with the big key forwards. I'm still not totally convinced about our ability to handle guys like Kennedy, Walker/Jenkins, Hawkins, Buddy, Tippett, [Insert relevant GWS giant]. Tarrant has been a revelation, but we absolutely need him firing during the 2nd half of the year. Is he our most critical player at the moment?

 

[Rooboy 96]

Higgins , Garner and Wright will be the only ones to comeback into the side the ones to miss will be Daw , Nahas and Mckenzie you just hope for the finals the AFL would allow 7 on the bench for the Top 8 sides but that's just wishful thinking.

Is Brownie first ruck? bold call.

 

[Rooboy 96]

I forgot the Essendon EF was in 14, not 15. Brown's coming of age.

that was the game when Brownie kicked all those goals in the second half of the game

 

[Rooboy 96]

So what you are effectively saying, given the more defensive structure, playing 3 talls is not the best idea. I tend to agree.
The question is, which one do we drop, to allow Daw in?

why not rotate them and develop a squad of talls that can play together, or is that too hard?

 

[ferball]

Provided he doesn't go missing.. still playing CAMEO role IMHO. I love his endeavour so don't get me wrong.. I left him out of 'my listed Best 22' based on his 2016 form. Just floats with bursts without being in discussions of the weekly B.O.G. class of players. He should be doing a lot better. KICKING GOALS is his job not missing them.

Look at his stats this year:
116 disposals from 10 games for a underwhelming 14 goal 15 behinds output.
DOWN 48% from career best of 2013 output numbers

7 goal assists with 8 one percenters.
DOWN 66% from career best of 2014 output numbers
DOWN 73% on 'one percenters' of 2014 career best numbers

32 tackles.
ON PAR to equal 2011 & 2012 best output numbers

11 frees for: 15 frees against.
DOWN 66% from career best of 2013

19 marks inside 50 this year is the only stat that has him holding his spot which betters his 2013 career best projection (29).

Tackles too.

 

[ferball]

Garner brings defensive pressure to help Waite and Petrie (only real guys regularly bringing the heat when they don't have the ball).

According to some stats the average tackles from forwards looks like this:

1. Taylor Garner 3 games 14 tackles 4.7 ave
2. Jarrad Waite 11 games 48 tackles 4.4 ave
3. Robin Nahas 5 games 21 tackles 4.3 ave
4. Shaun Higgins 7 games 25 tackles 3.6 ave
5. Lindsey Thomas 10 games 32 tackles 3.2 ave

Mason is not far behind averaging 3 tackles a game for his 4 games.

If you compare the marks inside 50 Waite averages 2.9, Maj and Wood average 2 per game then 4th on the list is Thomas with 1.9. The only other person on that list who averages at least 1 full mark inside 50 per game is Higgins with 1.

We have a fleet of ground level small forwards and our talls also do ok at ground level. While the three tall forwards would seem like obvious marking targets, esp overhead, having a small forward who can take marks, especially high marks over packs, inside 50 is just one more weapon.

So LT has increased his defensive pressure this year, as has the team as a whole it seems. He is playing to the game plan by providing an increase in pressure across the forward line and providing another aerial marking target when most teams are already struggling to match our potential tall marking power.

Mason Wood does bring similar attributes tho. But is he a "small forward" or even a forward. Cos i think he could fill Wells role quite well. May end up nearly as good. Either way not a "small" forward. Robbie TG and Higgo don't bring the same marking pressure. (But that could change with opportunities.)

I thought Garner was ok overhead but but he hasn't really shown it yet. To be fair SFA opportunity could be the reason for that.

None the less Garner brings great pressure but Thomas is doing well as well, the whole unit is. That being the case Thomas' ability to mark inside 50 gives him the edge in terms of offensive capability.

You are right (to a point) that so far this year his goal kicking hasn't been great. In the the first four rounds he only kicked 2 goals, the next four he missed a game (thanks Bont) but still kicked 4 goals from 3 games so that is a definite improvement.

His last 3 games have seen him kick 3 goals (we won by 11), 3 goals in the Swans loss - he was the standout forward till half time. And 2 goals against The Tuggers. So he has kicked 8 goals in his last 3 games as opposed to 6 goals in the first 7 games.

It seems he is hitting some goal kicking form right now. If he maintains that sort of goal kicking and the rest of his form for the rest of the season he will be a lock-in finals player.

 

[Woodson]