Opinion Non-Crows AFL 4: The Centre Cannot Hold

[Sanders]

We paid Jenkins not to play for us.

The end.

 

[adelaidecrows]

We paid Jenkins not to play for us.

The end.

What a coincidence, Geelong also paid Jenkins not to play for them.

 

[skam85]

Wow man. Revolutionary commentary. No sh!t you want Jack Riewoldt over these two. He is a 3 time Coleman medalist, 3 time flag winner, 3 x all Australian and is 22nd on the All time Goalkicking list.

Jason Castagna is also a 3 time premiership forward for your reference. Mark Hutchings was a forward in the eagles 2018 flag. I mean Mitch Morton was a premiership hero in that Sydney forward line.

I want to build a premiership forward line with the quality of

Betts, Ablett, Mathews
Franklin, Carey, Martin

I would select all those players over Dixon and Jenkins. Quick someone send this to Mathew Nicks - I have found the formula.

You literally asked which forward I'd take over Dixon or Jenkins dip shit

 

[skam85]

How many did Jenkins kick in him? Must have been embarassing.

 

[Golumless]

This is his 10th year in charge and the only reason he has stayed this long is David Koch ego refusing to admit his appointment failed. Never in the history of the game has a coach been allowed to get away with such average figures for so long. 121 wins and 82 losses. Most of the 39 game gap was established just over the last two years. so prior to that he had a 90 - 74 win loss record. He has only lead port to 10 finals games with a 50% result. I have no doubt its all been on the back of 2014 which Kochie hung his hat on.

If I was a gambling man, I think Hinkley will walk away at the end of the year even if they win the premiership. The reason is the generational change that will have to occur as of the next 12 months which will leave them with holes everywhere and they don't have the list balance due to their trade obsession to get out of it quickly.

Not since Damien Hardwick...

Well, more Koch doesn't genuinely care about winning it all. As long as Port are in finals, and the money is rolling in to clear the debt they have, he's happy.

Hinkley only moves on if Port collapses and it won't be his choice, either.

 

[AFC979810]

Interesting.

So in Ports team of 2020 who are you replacing Dixon with?

In 2017 who gets Jenkins spot in our lineup?

You literally asked which forward I'd take over Dixon or Jenkins dip sh*t

The hostility. Ouch.

I was asking who you would have replaced them with on their teams respective lists. Both teams were contending for a flag and you wouldn't want either player on the team - so who would you have brought in?

 

[Mego Red]

Just as relevant a debate as Eddie Betts vs Max Gawn

Show us on this doll where Joshie hurt you

 

[Mego Red]

1. So you are saying being the teams 3rd choice forward on the other teams 3rd best defender is harder than being the #1 forward with the #1 defender. You keep bringing up Ports Dominant midfield as to why Dixon is over-rated. Its a nothing stat. For reference in 2017 Adelaide had 59.7 Inside 50's a game from a dominant midfield. In 2020 Port averaged 46.3.

2. Rubbish. Port Adelaide judged Dixon to be a top 10 player at his club. Jenkins club did not. Umpires awarded Dixon 8 Brownlow votes. Umps awarded Jenkins 2. External Judges ranked Dixon as one of the best 22 players in the entire AFL for that season. External judges didn't have Jenkins in the Top 40 All Australian squad. So I think its' just you who thinks Jenkins was a better player than Dixon. I liked Jenkins just fine btw - nothing against him..

3. You are blind. And that's fine. It is a Crows forum after all, so you are allowed to be grossly biased.

Every stat presented has shown you to be wrong. Every objective comparison shows Jenkins to be better.

You're forced to use things like "it's harder getting the best defender, even though you're also the target of most forward entries". Both sides of that could be argued and neither is objectively right.

You're blinded by the fact Dixon LOOKS like a footballer and Josh looks like a goose.

This is one of the very few ACTUAL Moneyball cases in AFL.

 

[Mego Red]

We paid Jenkins not to play for us.

The end.

Did the same for Betts, too. Are we going to argue that Orazio Fantasia is better than him?

 

[AFC979810]

How did he go in the two Finals in his 2020 AA season?

On SM-A325F using BigFooty.com mobile app

Not sprouting he is a godsend or a finals specialist. Just that he aint a shit player and would be best 22 at our club all day every day.

Although its rarely used on this forum - context is key with regards to his 2020 finals performance.

Not sure if you watched the games but they were very scrappy low scoring affairs not really built for key forwards:

Final 1 - he kicked 1 goal. 14 goals scored in the match with 3 multiple goal kickers. Motlop 3, Ebert 2, Stanley 2. Tom Hawkins held goalless (had the yips).

Final 2 - Kicked 1 goal in an even lower scoring affair. Was on par with Tom Lynch and Jack Riewoldt for Richmond (all under 10 possies and a goal).

 

[AFC979810]

Every stat presented has shown you to be wrong. Every objective comparison shows Jenkins to be better.

You're forced to use things like "it's harder getting the best defender, even though you're also the target of most forward entries". Both sides of that could be argued and neither is objectively right.

You're blinded by the fact Dixon LOOKS like a footballer and Josh looks like a goose.

This is one of the very few ACTUAL Moneyball cases in AFL.

Now that the moneyball reference has come out I think this conversation has run its course.

Dixon = Bad.

Jenkins = Better.

 

[Vader]

Not sprouting he is a godsend or a finals specialist. Just that he aint a sh*t player and would be best 22 at our club all day every day.

He really wouldn't be. Tex Walker has shown himself to be superior to Dixon consistently, whenever delivery to the two has been comparable (i.e. not 2019-21 when Adelaide's midfield has been the wrong side of shite). We also have Fogarty & Thilthorpe, who the club is desperate to develop as the key prongs for when Tex rides off into the sunset. Dixon isn't being selected ahead of any of these players - Tex on the basis of performance, the others on the basis of needing to develop them for the future.

 

[AFC979810]

He really wouldn't be. Tex Walker has shown himself to be superior to Dixon consistently, whenever delivery to the two has been comparable (i.e. not 2019-21 when Adelaide's midfield has been the wrong side of sh*te). We also have Fogarty & Thilthorpe, who the club is desperate to develop as the key prongs for when Tex rides off into the sunset. Dixon isn't being selected ahead of any of these players - Tex on the basis of performance, the others on the basis of needing to develop them for the future.

I am not saying we are trying to recruit Dixon, but we play a final tomorrow with our list and you can't squeeze Charlie Dixon in? Good lord.

 

[Geoffa32]

I am not saying we are trying to recruit Dixon, but we play a final tomorrow with our list and you can't squeeze Charlie Dixon in? Good lord.

You don't want Dixon in a Final.



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[Vader]

I am not saying we are trying to recruit Dixon, but we play a final tomorrow with our list and you can't squeeze Charlie Dixon in? Good lord.

A - We're not playing finals in 2022, so it's a moot point.
B - Dixon's record in finals is extremely poor, so I'd have second thoughts about selecting him for finals even if we were playing.

 

[Geoffa32]

Not sprouting he is a godsend or a finals specialist. Just that he aint a sh*t player and would be best 22 at our club all day every day.

Although its rarely used on this forum - context is key with regards to his 2020 finals performance.

Not sure if you watched the games but they were very scrappy low scoring affairs not really built for key forwards:

Final 1 - he kicked 1 goal. 14 goals scored in the match with 3 multiple goal kickers. Motlop 3, Ebert 2, Stanley 2. Tom Hawkins held goalless (had the yips).

Final 2 - Kicked 1 goal in an even lower scoring affair. Was on par with Tom Lynch and Jack Riewoldt for Richmond (all under 10 possies and a goal).

Dixon had a lot of chances in both games.

I have a lot of Port friends and all will tell you Dixon is bad in Finals.

Read their board here in September for confirmation.




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[Enviable Tradition]

Port are obviously much better than us but their forward entries have been average imo. Was one of their biggest weakness last year.

Yep.

Quantity is good, quality is deplorable.

 

[Enviable Tradition]

Dixon had a lot of chances in both games.

I have a lot of Port friends and all will tell you Dixon is bad in Finals.

Read their board here in September for confirmation.




On SM-A325F using BigFooty.com mobile app

I think it's hard to judge Dixon against top 4 teams.

His record is ordinary but so is Ports record generally against the top 4.

It's a big of chicken or egg.

Is Port bad against the top 4 because Duxon goes missing?

Or is Dixon bad against the top 4 because our brain dead forward 50 entries have been shown not to work against the best time and time again?

Or a bit of both?

We would need to get a new coach coach a new forward coach to find out for sure but unfortunately by the time that actually happens Dixon will likely be over the hill.

 

[Sanders]

Show us on this doll where Joshie hurt you

I would, but it had a puncture and the sound of the air rushing out scared Joshie

 

[Sanders]

Every stat presented has shown you to be wrong. Every objective comparison shows Jenkins to be better.

You're forced to use things like "it's harder getting the best defender, even though you're also the target of most forward entries". Both sides of that could be argued and neither is objectively right.

You're blinded by the fact Dixon LOOKS like a footballer and Josh looks like a goose.

This is one of the very few ACTUAL Moneyball cases in AFL.

Sure, if moneyball doesn’t mean what it used to

It always used to be the opposite of worrying about meaningless counting stats.

But if that’s changed?

 

[Sanders]

Did the same for Betts, too. Are we going to argue that Orazio Fantasia is better than him?

He is now

 

[rocket18]

.............

We would need to get a new coach coach a new forward coach to find out for sure but unfortunately by the time that actually happens Dixon will likely be over the hill.

That's not happening anytime soon, don't all you blokes love Kenny?

Didn't seem that long ago "Yes we Kern" tshirts were the hottest item in town.

I heard a whisper that Donna was going to coach your AFLW side, a Hinkley dynasty is underway.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Every stat presented has shown you to be wrong. Every objective comparison shows Jenkins to be better.

You're forced to use things like "it's harder getting the best defender, even though you're also the target of most forward entries". Both sides of that could be argued and neither is objectively right.

You're blinded by the fact Dixon LOOKS like a footballer and Josh looks like a goose.

This is one of the very few ACTUAL Moneyball cases in AFL.

Different players, but let's compare some average stats.

JJ v CD
Marks 4.9 v 3.9
Contested 1.2 v 1.8

Possessions 12.1 v 11.6
Contested 5.3 v 7.6

Why is JJ worse because he has less uncontested because he has a better ability to lose his opponent than Dixon?

Goals 2 v 1.7

Hitouts 4.5 v 4.1

Overall JJ's numbers are in front & we oaid him much less than Dixon!

 

[Mr MysteryGuest]

Jenkins v Dixon

Josh Jenkins and Charlie Dixon AFL Stats Comparison

Josh Jenkins and Charlie Dixon AFL Stats Comparison.

www.footywire.com

 

[AFC979810]

Different players, but let's compare some average stats.

JJ v CD
Marks 4.9 v 3.9
Contested 1.2 v 1.8

Possessions 12.1 v 11.6
Contested 5.3 v 7.6

Why is JJ worse because he has less uncontested because he has a better ability to lose his opponent than Dixon?

Goals 2 v 1.7

Hitouts 4.5 v 4.1

Overall JJ's numbers are in front & we oaid him much less than Dixon!

JJ v Tex v Tom Lynch
Marks: 4.9 v 5.5 v 5.4
Contested: 1.2. v 1.4 v 2

Possessions 12.1 v 12.6 v 13.1
Contested 5.3 v 5.7 vs 6.8

Goals 2 vs 2.2 vs 2

Hitouts 4.5 vs .2 vs .6

Look at those idiots at Richmond. Paying all that money for Tom Lynch when they could have had Josh Jenkins. Moneyball indeed!