Autopsy Our home losing streak and our current sorry state of affairs.

[WCE_phil]

incorrect. From 2006-2012 the rules were if you won 4 or less games (16.5 points) in a season you were given a start of second round pick. Then If you won 4 or less games (16.5 points) in consecutive seasons you were given a start of first round pick. Hence, if we were tanking it was 2009 that we screwed up. Because winning 4 of the last 5 cost us priority picks in 2009 and 2010. Not sure how that would have worked with GC in the draft.

This is how we got Darling in 2010.

Say we only finished with 4 wins but higher % than Melbourne in 2009. We would have had pick 1 & 3 as well as 18,19 and 23. We would have picked Bastinac, Fyfe and Weedon with the last 3 picks. And then in 2010 had picks 4,5 and 28. We would like have taken Gaff, Caddy and if still available Darling.

TBH in 2009 we probably would have taken Trengove and Morabito. Scully was seen as a bit of a flight risk and before injury Trengove was very much a west coast style pick. Martin was the standout talent but was seen as a loose cannon. He still is.

 

[The Passenger]

Would we have taken Fyfe though? At the time, taking him at 19 was seen as Fremantle reaching a fair bit.

 

[Ambrose Burnside]

Say we only finished with 4 wins but higher % than Melbourne in 2009. We would have had pick 1 & 3 as well as 18,19 and 23. We would have picked Bastinac, Fyfe and Weedon with the last 3 picks. And then in 2010 had picks 4,5 and 28. We would like have taken Gaff, Caddy and if still available Darling.

TBH in 2009 we probably would have taken Trengove and Morabito. Scully was seen as a bit of a flight risk and before injury Trengove was very much a west coast style pick. Martin was the standout talent but was seen as a loose cannon. He still is.

Would rather wake up and discover I'm a ranga than tank though.

 

[The Passenger]

Would rather wake up and discover I'm a ranga than tank though.

Yep.

And Melbourne winning the flag in 2021 wasn't the result of their tanking a decade or so prior. It was the result of getting the club on the right path off the field (definitely with some heavy AFL assistance) which eventually flowed to performances on the field. Only two players remained on the list from the tanking era of the late 2000's and that was Nathan Jones and Neville Jetta. The only players drafted in the next few seasons that were on the flag list were Max Gawn (2009) and Tom McDonald (2010). They basically had to nuke the entire playing roster between (roughly) 2012 and 2015 to get rid of the stench of failure and rebuild properly.

If tanking worked Melbourne would have been challenging for a flag by 2013 and Carlton by 2010.

 

[Scotland]

Say we only finished with 4 wins but higher % than Melbourne in 2009. We would have had pick 1 & 3 as well as 18,19 and 23. We would have picked Bastinac, Fyfe and Weedon with the last 3 picks. And then in 2010 had picks 4,5 and 28. We would like have taken Gaff, Caddy and if still available Darling.

TBH in 2009 we probably would have taken Trengove and Morabito. Scully was seen as a bit of a flight risk and before injury Trengove was very much a west coast style pick. Martin was the standout talent but was seen as a loose cannon. He still is.

If we finished second last with 4 wins in 2009 we would've had picks 2 and 4, and you didn't get a first round priority pick and a second round priority pick in the same year. So we would've nominally had 2, 4, 20 and we traded 39 (34) and 55 (50) with Seaby and Staker to get 22. No idea who we would've picked but we would have at least talked to Martin given he was a highly rated junior talent.

 

[Scotland]

Yep.

And Melbourne winning the flag in 2021 wasn't the result of their tanking a decade or so prior. It was the result of getting the club on the right path off the field (definitely with some heavy AFL assistance) which eventually flowed to performances on the field. Only two players remained on the list from the tanking era of the late 2000's and that was Nathan Jones and Neville Jetta. The only players drafted in the next few seasons that were on the flag list were Max Gawn (2009) and Tom McDonald (2010). They basically had to nuke the entire playing roster between (roughly) 2012 and 2015 to get rid of the stench of failure and rebuild properly.

If tanking worked Melbourne would have been challenging for a flag by 2013 and Carlton by 2010.

When Scully left for GWS the AFL gave them two firsts as compo, which they traded for Dom Tyson and the mini draft pick to get Jesse Hogan, who they later traded to get Steven May. Despite having picks 3, 4, 14 the AFL let them have Jack Viney (pick 7 F/S bid) at pick 26. When Frawley left as a free agent the AFL gave them band 1 compo, so they got Petracca and Brayshaw at picks 2 and 3. And they brought in Paul Roos to fix them. Melbourne are good now but they've had a ludicrous number of early picks and plenty of assistance from AFL HQ.

 

[SloppyJoe]

At least we aren't Port.

 

[The Passenger]

Melbourne are good now but they've had a ludicrous number of early picks and plenty of assistance from AFL HQ.

Yeah they got a s**t ton of assistance, in particular - as you pointed out - the compensation pick for James Frawley was all sorts of WTF.

I think the point remains - if tanking worked they'd have been pushing for a flag by 2013. By that stage they had 10 top 20 picks coming into their prime years (drafted between 2007 and 2010) including 4 from the top 4 plus Hogan and Viney in their first years.

But the stench of failure was too strong and they ended up having to nuke almost that entire squad anyway.

I think people just need to be reticent of that before advocating for the tank. Mind you, once the season is genuinely done for a team pumping games into youngsters over senior players and sending blokes off for surgery is something all clubs do (and should do). Making completely nonsensical selections and playing players out of position in obvious attempts to lose matches isn't going to help a club.

 

[Scotland]

Yeah they got a s**t ton of assistance, in particular - as you pointed out - the compensation pick for James Frawley was all sorts of WTF.

I think the point remains - if tanking worked they'd have been pushing for a flag by 2013. By that stage they had 10 top 20 picks coming into their prime years (drafted between 2007 and 2010) including 4 from the top 4 plus Hogan and Viney in their first years.

But the stench of failure was too strong and they ended up having to nuke almost that entire squad anyway.

I think people just need to be reticent of that before advocating for the tank. Mind you, once the season is genuinely done for a team pumping games into youngsters over senior players and sending blokes off for surgery is something all clubs do (and should do). Making completely nonsensical selections and playing players out of position in obvious attempts to lose matches isn't going to help a club.

I don't think their failings are an argument for or against tanking. They made some horrible list management and administrative decisions. They went from 3 wins in 2008 to 4 in 2009, then 8 in 2010 and 8 in 2011 and had a record of 7-1-9 in 2011 before they lost by 186 points to Geelong - the same Geelong team that beat Collingwood (the other Grand Finalist) by 96. We lost by 101 to St Kilda in 2004 and had a 3-6 record. Ended up finishing 7th and made the GF the next two years. 186 was a disaster, but they threw the baby out with the bathwater. Sacked the coach and started again before sacking the coach and starting again a season and a half later.

They had good picks and ended up with Morton at 4 in 2007 when any of 6-10 would've been much better, Watts, Blease, Strauss in 2008 who were arguably the 3 worst players in the top 20, then Scully, Trengove, Gysberts, Tapscott in 2009 missing Martin, Cunnington, Talia, Fyfe etc. They traded a 23 year old heart and soul player in Brock McLean in that 2009 period to get pick 11 (Gysberts) and he wanted out because he thought the club was instilling a losing culture. You can't expect to nail every pick and a Hawthorn 2004 type haul comes about once in a generation, but they missed with almost every dart they threw at the board. In the same 3 years we ended up with Masten, Ebert, Selwood, Naitanui, Shuey, Sheppard with fewer and lesser picks.

I did not like a lot of the moves they made at the time but I do think the narrative would be different if they had not exchanged their early picks for magic beans. Richmond were hot garbage but had Cotchin, Riewoldt, Martin and Rance. The best Melbourne could muster in the same period is James Frawley and Nathan Jones. The quality of players they've debuted since around 2012/13 onward compared to 2006-2011 is not even close.

 

[Scotland]

In the context of us 'going the tank' we need to plan for the future, not actively try to lose games.

If we are playing Gaff at full back I'm switching off, but we're never going to see what O'Neill, Foley etc. can do if they hide in the back pocket.

 

[The Passenger]

The quality of players they've debuted since around 2012/13 onward compared to 2006-2011 is not even close.

Yep for sure but there's always a question of what the environment does to a player when they come into it.

If Melbourne pick NicNat does the AFL just end up losing one of it's star players? Nic was a very raw talent that I can only see thriving if he was drafted to a good environment with the right coaches around - Melbourne at the time just did not have that. I think there's a fair chance Melbourne drafting him would have derailed Nic's career before it even got off the ground.

Had they picked Daniel Rich he probably has a similar career to what we've seen (solid but not spectacular by any means). Rich was fairly self sufficient from the get go. I think Jack Watts could have had a decent career but he needed to get into the right environment from the get go and that obviously didn't happen.

Goes without saying the answer to the above is unknowable.

I don't think their failings are an argument for or against tanking.

Fair call and to be honest there's only been two genuine tanking efforts in the AFL era. Melbourne late 2000's and Carlton a few years prior. Maybe Richmond mid 2000's but there's a strong argument they were just genuinely s**t - it's a long time ago now and I can't recall too many specifics about the Tigers through that era.

So the sample size isn't large at all and there's a lot more variables that go into a rebuild than just tanking and draft picks.

In the context of us 'going the tank' we need to plan for the future, not actively try to lose games.

If we are playing Gaff at full back I'm switching off, but we're never going to see what O'Neill, Foley etc. can do if they hide in the back pocket.

This X 1000!

 

[MrWoollie]

In the context of us 'going the tank' we need to plan for the future, not actively try to lose games.

If we are playing Gaff at full back I'm switching off, but we're never going to see what O'Neill, Foley etc. can do if they hide in the back pocket.

Exactly.

Moving Gaff onto Buddy and at the same time moving JD (who's just kicked 3 goals in 5 minutes) onto the bench for 20 minutes would be a Carltonesque tank and I for one hope that crap like that comes back to bite whoever does it.

But I'm all for admitting the season is over at an appropriate point and sending guys off early to surgery and retiring guys a few games early for development reasons. How often do you see teams that make a run to a prelim or GF start behind the curve the next year because they have 3 or 4 guys not fully recovered from off season surgery? So, if it's done and dusted, go early and be good to go next year.

Given our off season injury woes of the last two years I for one would love to have a smooth run into next year. All off season surgery done as early as possible, good and successful medical intervention and a fully fit and ready squad come Feb 2023. None of this 10+ being injured for round 1 (including 4 or 5 1/2 to full season outs) crap.

 

[Scotland]

What about Hawthorn mid 2000s? They traded out Jon Hay, Nathan Thompson

Nathan Thompson

Age

46

Ht

194cm

Wt

100kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.5

3star

K

7.6

3star

HB

2.9

3star

M

5.4

5star

T

0.9

3star

G

1.8

5star

No current season stats available

D

5.0

1star

K

3.0

1star

HB

2.0

2star

M

2.6

3star

T

0.4

3star

G

0.6

3star

, Jade Rawlings

Jade Rawlings

Age

46

Ht

196cm

Wt

97kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.9

3star

K

8.7

3star

HB

4.2

3star

M

5.9

5star

T

0.8

3star

G

0.6

4star

No current season stats available

D

4.6

1star

K

3.8

2star

HB

0.8

1star

M

2.6

3star

T

0.4

3star

G

1.8

5star

etc. for extra picks and benefited from first round priority picks in 2004 and 2005. They were even willing to trade out Croad (*2 year rental) to get the #1 pick in 2001. There's a grey area between actively trying to lose games and putting yourself in a position where you increase your draft capital. GWS came into the comp with a strategy to build a young team from scratch. With all the cap space and picks in the world they brought in Scully, Ward and Davis who were still young players in their respective sides. The Giants were trash for their first 3 years until their crop of 18 year olds started to build experience at AFL level. They could've used their mini draft picks (which they had to trade or lose) for experience and instead did deals with Melbourne and Gold Coast for even more early draft picks. Strategy worked as they were in a prelim by 2016 though they have fallen back to the pack since as concessions wound back.

 

[Hap Hapablap]

We need a win at all costs. Unfortunately we won't get it this weekend.

 

[MKMatty]

/Thread

 

[BartBart]

Phew - hopefully we don't get close to the record again this season.

 

[CursoryMercenary]

So glad the 8 loss record remains intact and we're on the board for the season, seems like a long time ago that St.Kilda win.

 

[CoastersFlag No.5]

Let's hope it never gets beyond 8!

 

[MKMatty]

It's not just the "Covid"years that people are upset with. The club has been failing to make any meaningful improvements since 2018.

Watching yesterday's game at the ground, you tell me

• what the game plan is?
• What's our structure?
• What are any of the instructions giving to our players?

It looked like a complete mess and it has for the last 5+ seasons.

Fan aren't upset because we are losing, every club has to take its lumps at some point. Fans are upset because NOTHING is changing to show the club is actively addressing fundamental issues.

And as a member that pays a stupid amount of money to the club, you're goddamn right I expect the club to hold the high standards that have been set. Simpson is in his 8th season at the club, it's not like any of us are having a knee-jerk reaction to one bad season.

Any answers to your own questions after todays game mate? Still pretty keen to get your insight.

 

[Shuestar13]

Any answers to your own questions after todays game mate? Still pretty keen to get your insight.

You may be waiting a while. When they say we have been a complete mess for 5+ seasons (which with a rudimentary look at the calendar includes the year 2018) then what more can you say honestly. To win a flag whilst being a “complete mess”. Amazing

 

[Avalor]

We need a win at all costs. Unfortunately we won't get it this weekend.

Thankfully, that didn't last well.

 

[Shoei]

Any answers to your own questions after todays game mate? Still pretty keen to get your insight.

10.14 to 12.3 Collingwood don't butcher their easier shots on goal they win.

But i guess a win is a win.

You may be waiting a while. When they say we have been a complete mess for 5+ seasons (which with a rudimentary look at the calendar includes the year 2018) then what more can you say honestly. To win a flag whilst being a “complete mess”. Amazing

Make sure you both get a room.

The last 3 seasons rather than 5+. Although it seems 2018 was a lifetime ago.

 

[Shoei]

Any answers to your own questions after todays game mate? Still pretty keen to get your insight.

Just wondering if you caught today's game?

Few more questions need to be asked and answered if you think that's an acceptable outcome.

 

[CursoryMercenary]

5 home losses in a row now, it will likely continue.

 

[KERRPOW]

Hopefully a few people give up their memberships so.i can pick one up in a few years