List Mgmt. Pick 9

[ferrisb]

There’s always room for another Caleb.

Take that one to the Marchbank

 

[ferrisb]

this time of year should be presented in powerpoint to accentuate the boring.......

With really lame transitions in between slides.

Like year 8, first ever presentation bad

 

[ferrisb]

Caleb Daniel is doing alright as a short slow outside player. Being an elite kick is a hell of an attribute.

If Caleb Daniel was normal afl footballer height, he'd be as good as Sam Walsh IMO.




#ShortGuysHaveToStickTogether
#OtherwiseNoOneKnowsWe'reThere

 

[ferrisb]

6 of our last 11 first picks at the draft have been West Aussie’s, we aren’t shy on taking them. I can’t be arsed checking, but I’m not sure Freo and WC would be that high.

Hold my beer while I look up the top prospects this year from Swan Districts....

 

[ray8182]

Look I’m going to call it here. I’ve just watched yet another Caleb Serong game. He is not a top shelf AFl prospect. He reads the play well and has terrifically clean hands....

And that’s it. In under 18 footy he has a lot of time and that has yielded goals and possessions for him that come after the reading of the play and the clean take. But he has NO zip. He can’t Marc Murphy shimmy to create space for himself. Or Caleb Daniel. Or Sam Walsh. He doesn’t have the straight line speed to do so either. Which means his disposal is under pressure. And under pressure he frankly butchers it. He has a lot of work to do.

I’m super neg on him. Apologies to his fans but he’s not a high probability of success for mine. I wouldn’t draft him top 15. I hope he fixes his flaws and I hope he makes it.

But drafting is about maths/probability.....

And for me? His numbers just don’t add up.

I agree regarding serongs athleticism. I was very underwhelmed watching some highlights as he didn’t have the agility or speed you might expect from a small. He also looked too heavy.

Maybe an AFL club, with a full preseason, will be able to strip him back and get some zip into his game.


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[thylacine60]

love everyone putting in their wishlists for the draft!

 

[ParapMarkets]

Then you may have little comprehension of a list build as it's silly loading up on the same types at the expense of types you require and we're simply relying on cliches fed to us via recruiters who keep telling us that they simply....simply....take best available. This rarely proves to be true via the course of a draft.
Good to hear someone with a little integrity in Wells, state that he may not be after the supposed best players but for players he needs.

My loathing 'passion' is to listen to people blindly ask for best available without considering the bigger picture. This is very naive.

In fairness, Wells’ first round picks/first picks in the draft have been pretty shithouse since Taylor back in 2007 so maybe there is something in that (although Jordan Clark looks a beauty). Admittedly he hasn’t had a great selection of picks, but still it’s a poor run.

I agree that needs have to be taken into the equation. If you have a 24 yr Grundy and a decent backup ruck, you don’t take a ruck with a high pick. Similarly, Carlton shouldn’t be taking a key back with pick 9.

I just think you are taking it too far. The failure rate of top 10 picks is still pretty high, taking a lesser rated player because of needs is fraught with danger imo, especially when you are probably 4-5 years from seeing the best of them, you don’t know how the list will look then.

Yes, you need to be mindful of the list balance you have, but top 10 picks should not be “needs” based picks unless you are extremely confident that in 4 years time those needs will be the same. Don’t pick a failure because of “needs”.

 

[KohPhi]

Everything is worthy of a GIF here it seems

I'll drink to that!

 

[ParapMarkets]

Hold my beer while I look up the top prospects this year from Swan Districts....

Yeah we like Swan Districts players, but it is a mix:

East Fremantle: 2
South Fremantle: 1
Swan Districts: 2
Claremont: 1

 

[jezzatigerbrent]

I agree regarding serongs athleticism. I was very underwhelmed watching some highlights as he didn’t have the agility or speed you might expect from a small. He also looked too heavy.

Maybe an AFL club, with a full preseason, will be able to strip him back and get some zip into his game.


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I think you've got a look for a consistently performed, acclaimed ''top echelon'' at his level ,dedicated and determined footballer however and resist the temptation to get another Blaine Brockhurst type just because he has zip and separation..... Sarong has never even been a full-time footballer in preseason because half of his time has been devoted to cricket ...>and he'll now will have access to a professional AFL setup... We do this often and lose sight of a real well rounded & consistently well produced and performed footballer i.e. I know I'd rather a Greg Williams type than Blaine Brockhurst types..... If Stephen Silvagni doesn't think that Caleb serong can do Justice to pick 9 I really hope that we are able to take Dylan Stephens[ assuming he is there] as he is also a natural footballer and has all the athletic traits as well

 

[ray8182]

I think you've got a look for a consistently performed, acclaimed ''top echelon'' at his level ,dedicated and determined footballer however and resist the temptation to get another Blaine Brockhurst type just because he has zip and separation..... Sarong has never even been a full-time footballer in preseason because half of his time has been devoted to cricket ...>and he'll now will have access to a professional AFL setup... We do this often and lose sight of a real well rounded & consistently well produced and performed footballer i.e. I know I'd rather a Greg Williams type than Blaine Brockhurst types..... If Stephen Silvagni doesn't think that Caleb serong can do Justice to pick 9 I really hope that we are able to take Dylan Stephens[ assuming he is there] as he is also a natural footballer and has all the athletic traits as well

Blaine Boekhorst is so extreme an example that it is hardly relevant. Nobody is advocating for an outside player of this type just because they want a player to have a bit more zip.

Typically smaller players need to have more agility and/or speed. One paced small players that lack athleticism struggle at afl level.

Serong has been a good small forward as well as midfielder in u18s. An AFL club would look at him to play both. There arent many small forwards at afl level that lack agility and speed.


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[rog1995]

I think it is in the ballpark Harks. It's not a strength, but i don't think it's a strength of the others either. It's one of the reasons i wasn't a big fan of this crop overall. The Champs weren't a high standard imo.

Rowell deserves top rating in the mids. But after that, i reckon Robertson is the 2nd best mid. Elite drive, elite speed, elite agility, elite leadership. All of those are ratings that absolutely match my eyes.

Robertson is wrongly, imo, described as low ceiling because of his kicking and lack of scoring, but his numbers match, a touch above or a touch below, all the other mids in kicking efficiency and scores/assists.

As much as i'm sorta talking up Robertson, im sorta just as much saying i'm not that rapt with some other high raters.

What did Robertson test at the combine?

 

[jezzatigerbrent]

Blaine Boekhorst is so extreme an example that it is hardly relevant. Nobody is advocating for an outside player of this type just because they want a player to have a bit more zip.

Typically smaller players need to have more agility and/or speed. One paced small players that lack athleticism struggle at afl level.

Serong has been a good small forward as well as miessardfielder in u18s. An AFL club would look at him to play both. There arent many small forwards at afl level that lack agility and speed.


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I said a Blaine Brockhurst type..not necessarily him.. like we don't want another Frank Marchesani or another Dennis Collinss type either..... And I doubt that Serong is a one-paced player... He looks to me like he's a taller of version of Rod Ashman... Who actually came to Carlton having played full forward at Bendigo Football Club Eaglehawk[ largely because he was an excellent overhead mark and super courageous]

 

[ray8182]

I said a Blaine Brockhurst type..not necessarily him.. like we don't want another Frank Marchesani or another Dennis Collinss type either..... And I doubt that Serong is a one-paced player... He looks to me like he's a taller of version of Rod Ashman... Who actually came to Carlton having played full forward at Bendigo Football Club Eaglehawk[ largely because he was an excellent overhead mark and super courageous]

I do think Serong will be a good footballer. It’s just whether his athleticism will limit him or not. He played like an inside midfielder in the u18s(in the highlights l saw this year)and l don’t think he can play that role at afl level(could be wrong). He will be an interesting player to watch to see how he turns out. I just see a bit of risk attached to taking him at 9.

My problem is that l would like Carlton to choose a player with some leg speed as l see that as lacking in our team. Not just to break the lines when carrying the ball but also to apply pressure when we don’t have the ball. We can be cut up by teams with quick players.

In saying all that my knowledge of Serong is limited. it’s just that my initial impressions were that he needs to trim down and get a bit more speed and agility into his game because he may not be able to play as an inside midfielder.


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[HARKER]

In fairness, Wells’ first round picks/first picks in the draft have been pretty shithouse since Taylor back in 2007 so maybe there is something in that (although Jordan Clark looks a beauty). Admittedly he hasn’t had a great selection of picks, but still it’s a poor run.

I agree that needs have to be taken into the equation. If you have a 24 yr Grundy and a decent backup ruck, you don’t take a ruck with a high pick. Similarly, Carlton shouldn’t be taking a key back with pick 9.

I just think you are taking it too far. The failure rate of top 10 picks is still pretty high, taking a lesser rated player because of needs is fraught with danger imo, especially when you are probably 4-5 years from seeing the best of them, you don’t know how the list will look then.

Yes, you need to be mindful of the list balance you have, but top 10 picks should not be “needs” based picks unless you are extremely confident that in 4 years time those needs will be the same. Don’t pick a failure because of “needs”.

They've been ordinary, haven't they but that wasn't the point I set out to make.
It was refreshing to hear someone speak about drafting without cliches and to bring along a little integrity and honesty into discussions.
You only have to filter through some drafts to understand that many factors come into consideration before taking a player you want at your club, and somewhere along the line needs comes into play.
Running lines like 'Draft for talent and recruit for needs' is way too simple a formula to attach yourself to. It may well work out that way at times, but given there are more than one means to get you the players you need, you'd be foolish not to explore them all.
I'll say it again; I don't care to find the next future Brownlow Medallist, but I do though care about the build of a team that will give me Premierships and if those two are bound then fine, but they are not as a matter of course.

 

[windows1]

What did Robertson test at the combine?

He didn’t go to the combine due to a shoulder. His pre- season testing had him easily sub 3 for 20. Most of his testing was elite.

 

[windows1]

For the avoidance of any doubt:

Tom Papley was easily worth 9 in this draft. Easily.

 

[Red Bull]

One of Serong, Henry or Robertson with pick 9 would do nicely.

 

[Benaly28]

For the avoidance of any doubt:

Tom Papley was easily worth 9 in this draft. Easily.

Never any doubt.

 

[spry]

Who are we trading our future first with?


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[swuzzlebubble]

Who are we trading our future first with?

I reckon Port for 12 is the closest straight swap, but a 2-for-1 might give better options

 

[ABigOlDoofus]

So, with the draft a little over a week away, I thought I'd give my two cents on what I think we should do with pick 9. Obviously there is the chance we split pick 9 into 2 firsts, but that's too many scenarios to account for so I'll pretend like we're not going to do any live trades.

Before I begin, let me make some things clear. I am NOT an avid draft watcher. My opinions are based on the footage I have seen (U/18 champs and highlight reels), and the filtered opinions of others I trust. There are many more qualified people in this thread, as well as in the main draft thread that you should probably trust more than me.

That being said, I'd like to think despite my name I'm not a complete idiot, and that I have an ok eye for all things footy, so I feel my opinion carries some weight, however much weight it carries is up to you.

So as for my rankings, what I've done is split the players that could be available and that I think we should be looking at into tiers, and then I'll write a quick blurb about why I think we should consider said player, and why I've put them in that tier.

Without further adieu, let's get stuck in.

TIER 1: Please, please pick these players

- DYLAN STEPHENS

Dylan Stephens is probably my favourite prospect in this draft (note I said favourite, not best). He has all the qualities you want in a wingman; beautiful disposal, breakaway speed, high level endurance, and good defensive work ethic. Not only that, he has shown he has some inside nous, his hands in traffic and the timing on his handball releases really surprised me with how good they were. The only thing holding him back from playing inside at the moment is his frame and size, which after a few pre-seasons under AR shouldn't be a problem. Checks every box for me. CEILING: Andrew Gaff

- DEVEN ROBERTSON

I love Deven Robertson, he's the full package when it comes to inside mid. He's strong, quick, tough as nails, knows how to track the pill, and like Walsh before him rarely has a bad game. He's also by all accounts a fantastic leader, which you can never have too many of. Yes, his kicking is an issue, and yes, we do already have a lot of similar players already developing, but I think he's too good of a talent to pass up if he's there at 9. Another knock I've seen on him is that he doesn't have that high of a ceiling, which does not matter at all to a up and coming club like ours with most of the puzzle pieces in place, and we've seen what can happen when you over-think ceiling with the Worpels of the world. Fantastic prospect any club would be lucky to have. CEILING: Joel Selwood/Lachie Neale

TIER 2: Fantastic players who I'd love to have

- LACHIE ASH

As much as we love to hate the scum, pretty much every team in the league would love to have Adam Saad dashing off half back for them, and Lachie Ash is Saad with better disposal. He is one of the better kicks in the draft, and can roost it too, which is exactly what we need since we seemed to struggle transitioning from defence to offence last year. My concerns with Ash are that when he goes for a run, it can often lead to turnovers either by not slowing down enough and butchering the kick, or by running himself into trouble and being caught with the ball. Someone I'd be very happy to hear us read out at 9. CEILING: HBF Chris Yarran/Adam Saad

- BRODIE KEMP

Of all the prospects I'll talk about in this post, Kemp by far has the highest ceiling. As far as I'm concerned, his ceiling is Dangerfield/Bontempelli levels, a dominant mid who is also incredible as a medium forward. However, the reason he is only tier 2 is because his floor is very, very low, he is the negative-zone Deven Robertson. The question marks surrounding his ability as mid, compounded with his ACL injury means he could very well never amount to anything meaningful at AFL level. However, like I mentioned before, his versatility, goal kicking ability, explosive burst, and fantastic hands means he could very well end up the best player from this draft. CEILING: Patrick Dangerfield/Marcus Bontempelli (if he develops into a mid), Tim Membrey (if he doesn't develop into a mid)

- CALEB SERONG

I've already given my thoughts on Serong in this thread (https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/pick-9.1230905/page-56#post-63647200), so the TL;DR is Caleb will at the very least be a very good small forward, but lacks a real weapon for him to be a good midfielder at AFL level. CEILING: Tom Papley (if he doesn't develop into a full time mid), Dayne Zorko (if he does develop into a mid)


- LUKE JACKSON

Like Kemp, Luke Jackson could end up being the best player in this draft. A modern ruckman in the Brodie Grundy mould (and the Krooz mould ofc), Jackson acts as an extra midfielder once the ball hits the deck, and with his excellent agility and mobility for his size he is incredibly effective in this role. Not only that, he is also very effective resting forward, as he is a great mark and good set shot on goal. One of the best prospects in this draft, but he's only tier 2 since he's not a position of need with the club going forward with TDK as our ruck of the future. CEILING: Brodie Grundy/Matthew Kreuzer

TIER 3: Great players that fit positions of need, but would be a reach at 9

- CODY WEIGHTMAN

Cody Weightman is probably the best small forward not named Serong or Henry in this draft. He has x-factor in spades, and has fantastic goal-kicking nous. He is aggressive and tenacious when attacking the ball, and once he gets it he is quick and evasive to give himself enough space to work some small forward magic. I personally wouldn't pick him at 9, but since we're so desperately needing a small forward I would't absolutely hate the pick either. CEILING: Jamie Elliot

- KYSAIAH PICKETT

Kossie is probably my favourite pure small forward in the draft, if you looked up the definition of x-factor in the dictionary you'd find a picture of him. His athleticism is off the charts and he uses it to turn games on their head. He is a very low possession - high impact player, which is perfect for our super tall forward line. He also provides incredible defensive pressure which Teague would love. My only concern of his is that he can disappear from games sometimes, and that his endurance isn't the greatest (however AR can fix that quick smart). I like him so much that I'd probably prefer to turn pick 9 into 2 firsts and use one on him, however I don't like him enough to use pick 9 by itself on him. CEILING: Cyril Rioli


So there we have it, my opinion on some prospects that are in the conversation for pick 9. I'd love to hear what you think, whether you agree or disagree etc. all feedback and discussion is greatly appreciated!

 

[TerryWallet]

So, with the draft a little over a week away, I thought I'd give my two cents on what I think we should do with pick 9. Obviously there is the chance we split pick 9 into 2 firsts, but that's too many scenarios to account for so I'll pretend like we're not going to do any live trades.

Before I begin, let me make some things clear. I am NOT an avid draft watcher. My opinions are based on the footage I have seen (U/18 champs and highlight reels), and the filtered opinions of others I trust. There are many more qualified people in this thread, as well as in the main draft thread that you should probably trust more than me.

That being said, I'd like to think despite my name I'm not a complete idiot, and that I have an ok eye for all things footy, so I feel my opinion carries some weight, however much weight it carries is up to you.

So as for my rankings, what I've done is split the players that could be available and that I think we should be looking at into tiers, and then I'll write a quick blurb about why I think we should consider said player, and why I've put them in that tier.

Without further adieu, let's get stuck in.

TIER 1: Please, please pick these players

- DYLAN STEPHENS

Dylan Stephens is probably my favourite prospect in this draft (note I said favourite, not best). He has all the qualities you want in a wingman; beautiful disposal, breakaway speed, high level endurance, and good defensive work ethic. Not only that, he has shown he has some inside nous, his hands in traffic and the timing on his handball releases really surprised me with how good they were. The only thing holding him back from playing inside at the moment is his frame and size, which after a few pre-seasons under AR shouldn't be a problem. Checks every box for me. CEILING: Andrew Gaff

- DEVEN ROBERTSON

I love Deven Robertson, he's the full package when it comes to inside mid. He's strong, quick, tough as nails, knows how to track the pill, and like Walsh before him rarely has a bad game. He's also by all accounts a fantastic leader, which you can never have too many of. Yes, his kicking is an issue, and yes, we do already have a lot of similar players already developing, but I think he's too good of a talent to pass up if he's there at 9. Another knock I've seen on him is that he doesn't have that high of a ceiling, which does not matter at all to a up and coming club like ours with most of the puzzle pieces in place, and we've seen what can happen when you over-think ceiling with the Worpels of the world. Fantastic prospect any club would be lucky to have. CEILING: Joel Selwood/Lachie Neale

TIER 2: Fantastic players who I'd love to have

- LACHIE ASH

As much as we love to hate the scum, pretty much every team in the league would love to have Adam Saad dashing off half back for them, and Lachie Ash is Saad with better disposal. He is one of the better kicks in the draft, and can roost it too, which is exactly what we need since we seemed to struggle transitioning from defence to offence last year. My concerns with Ash are that when he goes for a run, it can often lead to turnovers either by not slowing down enough and butchering the kick, or by running himself into trouble and being caught with the ball. Someone I'd be very happy to hear us read out at 9. CEILING: HBF Chris Yarran/Adam Saad

- BRODIE KEMP

Of all the prospects I'll talk about in this post, Kemp by far has the highest ceiling. As far as I'm concerned, his ceiling is Dangerfield/Bontempelli levels, a dominant mid who is also incredible as a medium forward. However, the reason he is only tier 2 is because his floor is very, very low, he is the negative-zone Deven Robertson. The question marks surrounding his ability as mid, compounded with his ACL injury means he could very well never amount to anything meaningful at AFL level. However, like I mentioned before, his versatility, goal kicking ability, explosive burst, and fantastic hands means he could very well end up the best player from this draft. CEILING: Patrick Dangerfield/Marcus Bontempelli (if he develops into a mid), Tim Membrey (if he doesn't develop into a mid)

- CALEB SERONG

I've already given my thoughts on Serong in this thread (https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/pick-9.1230905/page-56#post-63647200), so the TL;DR is Caleb will at the very least be a very good small forward, but lacks a real weapon for him to be a good midfielder at AFL level. CEILING: Tom Papley (if he doesn't develop into a full time mid), Dayne Zorko (if he does develop into a mid)


- LUKE JACKSON

Like Kemp, Luke Jackson could end up being the best player in this draft. A modern ruckman in the Brodie Grundy mould (and the Krooz mould ofc), Jackson acts as an extra midfielder once the ball hits the deck, and with his excellent agility and mobility for his size he is incredibly effective in this role. Not only that, he is also very effective resting forward, as he is a great mark and good set shot on goal. One of the best prospects in this draft, but he's only tier 2 since he's not a position of need with the club going forward with TDK as our ruck of the future. CEILING: Brodie Grundy/Matthew Kreuzer

TIER 3: Great players that fit positions of need, but would be a reach at 9

- CODY WEIGHTMAN

Cody Weightman is probably the best small forward not named Serong or Henry in this draft. He has x-factor in spades, and has fantastic goal-kicking nous. He is aggressive and tenacious when attacking the ball, and once he gets it he is quick and evasive to give himself enough space to work some small forward magic. I personally wouldn't pick him at 9, but since we're so desperately needing a small forward I would't absolutely hate the pick either. CEILING: Jamie Elliot

- KYSAIAH PICKETT

Kossie is probably my favourite pure small forward in the draft, if you looked up the definition of x-factor in the dictionary you'd find a picture of him. His athleticism is off the charts and he uses it to turn games on their head. He is a very low possession - high impact player, which is perfect for our super tall forward line. He also provides incredible defensive pressure which Teague would love. My only concern of his is that he can disappear from games sometimes, and that his endurance isn't the greatest (however AR can fix that quick smart). I like him so much that I'd probably prefer to turn pick 9 into 2 firsts and use one on him, however I don't like him enough to use pick 9 by itself on him. CEILING: Cyril Rioli


So there we have it, my opinion on some prospects that are in the conversation for pick 9. I'd love to hear what you think, whether you agree or disagree etc. all feedback and discussion is greatly appreciated!

Top post Doofus. I enjoy reading others opinions on the draft and am always pleased when someone pops theirs up. Personally i agree with a bit of this and disagree with a little, as is absolutely normal.

Just on the small forwards, my order is Pickett, Henry, Serong, Weightman. But it is very tight. I have them at 16,17,18 and 22 on my board.

Like you, although there is always a chance your top pick(s) can change on the night now, i think it is much more likely and safe to normally assume that it will stay as is. Law of averages and common sense. Personally i think our 1 wish spot for our list is a damaging, goalkicking small or general forward. It's why i was hot on Papley. So a trade down with Geelong or GC or Brissy would probably give us a crack at one of the SF's and D.Williams. 2 shots at a damaging goalkicker.

But there are pluses and minuses to any thoughts of a trade down and i'll assume that we won't until we do. At 9, we could easily get one of our Top 5 players. Who it is, is what we await to figure out.

 

[ABigOlDoofus]

Top post Doofus. I enjoy reading others opinions on the draft and am always pleased when someone pops theirs up. Personally i agree with a bit of this and disagree with a little, as is absolutely normal.

Just on the small forwards, my order is Pickett, Henry, Serong, Weightman. But it is very tight. I have them at 16,17,18 and 22 on my board.

Like you, although there is always a chance your top pick(s) can change on the night now, i think it is much more likely and safe to normally assume that it will stay as is. Law of averages and common sense. Personally i think our 1 wish spot for our list is a damaging, goalkicking small or general forward. It's why i was hot on Papley. So a trade down with Geelong or GC or Brissy would probably give us a crack at one of the SF's and D.Williams. 2 shots at a damaging goalkicker.

But there are pluses and minuses to any thoughts of a trade down and i'll assume that we won't until we do. At 9, we could easily get one of our Top 5 players. Who it is, is what we await to figure out.

Thanks for the feedback Terry! Glad you were able to get something out of it.

Also since I didn't write about it since we're not getting him, I rate Henry as the pick of the small forwards and he would comfortably fit into Tier 1 of my rankings. His poise and silky skills are absurd for someone of his age, and the only reason he didn't dominate is because of his size, which obviously will become less of an issue the more AFL level pre-seasons he has. Would be close to my first pick at 9.

 

[Stamos]

Geez Serong divides opinion. A few of the media draft experts (including Bishop) rate him at 4, and a few on here have big knocks on him.

He would seem to be the right type for us. Will be interesting to see where he goes, and how he turns out.