List Mgmt. Player Ages Thread

[Kaiser Powser]

Was just going to say, that pick is definitely for Jake Long. It's a tiny tiny win, because Adelaide did get banned from taking father son's last year.

and we can trade into it as ben said

AFL just assumed Adelaide wouldn't need father son availability, as the criteria set up for SANFL qualification is so restrictive, hence why they have yet to get one in their over 20 year existence.

 

[Kaiser Powser]

It's about having a generational gap though. Assuming we're happy with the Kav/Merrett/O'Brien/Dalgleish and Daniher/Ashby/Gleeson/Gregory drafts we'll have a solid group of 1993 and 1994 players.

You can add Fletcher to the list. He is a 1993 player.

amirite?

 

[lenny2013]

So will our 3rd and 4th round draft picks be calculated on us finishing 9th?

How does the picks for the PSD work?

 

[Kaiser Powser]

G

So will our 3rd and 4th round draft picks be calculated on us finishing 9th?

How does the picks for the PSD work?

Good point. Our 3rd and 4th round picks just got a couple better.

God I would love it if we nail an absolute beauty just before Carlton's pick.

 

[WEEVZ]

Must take Garlett now if he's available, if we don't trade into the 1st or 2nd rounds he'll be the best player available to us

 

[HirdyLannister]

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/a...-stewart-crameri/story-fn69a32t-1226705763660

BRISBANE Lions have entered the race for out-of-contract Essendon forward Stewart Crameri, in a bid to pip the Western Bulldogs.
Brisbane is desperate to fill a key forward void and could yet be hit with the departure of several young talented players, including top-30 draft selections Patrick Karnezis (No.25), Jared Polec (No.5), Sam Docherty (No.12), Billy Longer (No.7) and Elliot Yeo (No.30).

Collingwood is believed to be interested in versatile midfielder-forward Karnezis, who has told the Lions he wants to leave.

Both South Australian clubs are trying to lure slick left-footer Polec, who has had three injury-plagued years at Brisbane.

Gold Coast ruckman Daniel Gorringe, pick No.11 in 2010, could also decide his future next week after putting off contract talks until season's end.

A mid-September deadline looms for the players, which could force them to make a decision before the Lions appoint a new coach.

The Western Bulldogs are in front position to secure Crameri, 24, on a four-year deal estimated at about $450,000 a season.

The Dogs could offer Essendon a second-round selection, about No. 22, for Crameri to bolster an attack that has been fed by a much-improved midfield in the second half of the season.

But the Lions have made inquires about Crameri and could yet mount a more attractive trade package depending on their own player movement.

However, the instability surrounding the Lions' list and a lack of a senior coach would count heavily against any Brisbane proposal.

The Bombers have plans to add teenage big man Joe Daniher into their regular senior forward mix next season, likely forcing out either key forward Crameri or Scott Gumbleton.

Tom Bellchambers wants to re-sign at Essendon but the big ruckman and the Bombers remain some way apart on terms for a two-year deal.

Swans big man Shane Mumford is in Greater Western Sydney's sights to fill its vacant ruck position.

The Bombers have been stripped of their first and second-round draft picks as part of the AFL's supplement punishment, placing extra importance on their trade movements this post-season.

They remain keen on adding another quality midfielder to their list.

The Lions are intent on landing another forward marking target, considering injured spearhead Jonathan Brown's future is undecided and young ruckman-forward Longer is weighing up his options.

Longer, pick No.8 in the 2011 national draft, is yet to recommit to the Lions.

Gorringe is fourth in line in the Suns' ruck stocks behind Zac Smith, Charlie Dixon and Tom Nicholls.

 

[Ben the Gooner]

Yeo would be worth a look if he wants to leave. He's from WA though IIRC.

 

[Phone]

a two year deal for TBC isn't exactly good business.

 

[BrunoV]

It's about having a generational gap though. Assuming we're happy with the Kav/Merrett/O'Brien/Dalgleish and Daniher/Ashby/Gleeson/Gregory drafts we'll have a solid group of 1993 and 1994 players, then we're really hoping and praying that we get something ok out of 1995 and 1996 before normal service resumes with 1997. There's immense pressure on 3rd round and later picks for two years (although Neagle, Daniher and Long might help that) and even more pressure on what we can get in the 2015 draft. Stuff it up like Essendon did with 1999-2001 (with only Hille and Welsh being of any value at all) and we'll be feeling it in the latter parts of this decade. You simply cannot afford to have a generational gap because it leaves you in a position where there's no kids forcing their way in, and you have to look elsewhere to top up the team - see Mark Alvey, Ty Zantuck and Justin Murphy.

Look at St Kilda - they should be starting to get service from their 3rd-5th year players, but those guys simply don't exist so they're struggling.

This year we saw Merrett force his way into the best 22, next year we're a good chance to see something similar from at least one of Dalgleish, Kavanagh, O'Brien, Browne or Gleeson. Once those names either make it or don't, we've got nothing coming in to replace the Winderlichs, Fletchers, Watsons and Goddards who are starting to decline.

Getting a pick in the 9-22 range (i.e GWS's first or second or the Dogs' second) is absolutely vital for ensuring we keep revitalising the list smoothly. Shrewd trading in the next few years to get 1995-1996 aged guys in will be important too. Looking to trade in a Melksham type after his 3rd year would be the plan.



Buddy hasn't really threatened the top 5-10 players in the comp list since 2008, but under Lyon, he'd be a 5 tackle, 3 goal a game forward at a minimum. Him and Mayne in the forwardline would be nigh on unstoppable in terms of forward retention.

I understand that we need to avoid having the generation gap but given the age of the list and the apparent quality of players born in 93-94 there is going to be more than enough time to get cover from 97 (and there may still be players in the 95-96 range).

Once you are a good side it is much easier to develop quality players. Look at some of the shitful first round recruiting by the Hawks under Clarkson and dearth of impact of first round selections of the Cats in the last 6-7 years.

 

[FlyingV]

Exactly. If Essendon want a high first round pick then thats what it will cost for the dogs pick. Now if it's the dogs knocking for Carlisle then we may have to offer something up. But pick 4 wouldn't be far off the mark. No point giving us 3 players we don't need when we need to cut our list of dead wood as it is.

I understand what you're saying, it takes super talent to get super high picks. So it would Have to be someone like Carlisle. We won' t be parting with someone like that, and we have no picks of our won to sweeten any deals so high picks are out of the question for us

 

[FlyingV]

Hurley has already replied that that is an "absolute crock of shit"

Next.

Lol I know where that rumour was created, on the Carlton board. Ffs

 

[Itsmyshow]

I can't see Essendon being a major player when it comes to trading into picks. They will be focusing on a "diamond" in the latter stages of the draft, ie. Garlett

 

[JR95]

Hurley has already replied that that is an "absolute crock of shit"

Next.

Did he actually say that, using those words?

 

[calyam]

Had a quick go at it so there might be some issues but I think it ends up with a very nice looking team for 2014 and one that would improve on 2013.

Trades:
Trade out: Bellchambers + Pears
Trade in: Pick 1 (Boyd)

Trade out: Crameri
Trade in: Second round pick (WB) or Polec / Longer (Brisbane)

Draft:
Boyd
Garlett
Steinberg (Upgrade)
Dalgleish (Upgrade)

2014 lineup looks something like:

FB: Baguley, Fletcher, Carlisle
HB: Dempsey, Hooker, Hibberd
C: Goddard, Watson, Stanton
HF: Zaharakis, Boyd, Winderlich
FF: Hurley, Daniher, Garlett
R: Ryder, Melksham, Heppell
IC: Myers, Kavanagh, Howlett, Hocking

Pushing for selection: Dalgheish, Browne, Merrett, Hams, Kommer

Alternatives for going all out for Boyd is to let TBC go for Taylor Adams although I'm not completely sold on Adams just yet and to be honest I'd prefer to have bigger midfielders. I haven't really addressed free agency as I'm not sure we'll be an attractive destination after the season we have gone through but we would be negligent if we didn't at least sound out the likes of Dal Santo.

 

[lenny2013]

I can't see Essendon being a major player when it comes to trading into picks. They will be focusing on a "diamond" in the latter stages of the draft, ie. Garlett

Read on another board that Garlett was a no show to an interview with Port Adelaide recently, if true that's a worry.

 

[calyam]

Read on another board that Garlett was a no show to an interview with Port Adelaide recently, if true that's a worry.

We are already in his ear telling him to make mistakes so teams ignore his talent and only focus on his 'character'.

 

[Kenno27]

North told Gartlett they will select with their 2nd Pick so unless you can source a higher pick, he will be playing there if he available at their selection.

 

[Itsmyshow]

North told Gartlett they will select with their 2nd Pick so unless you can source a higher pick, he will be playing there if he available at their selection.

This would surprise me greatly given where Norf's list stands.

 

[Kaiser Powser]

Did he actually say that, using those words?

Yes. Kakkle had a close friend text him and that was his response.

 

[Ben the Gooner]

I understand that we need to avoid having the generation gap but given the age of the list and the apparent quality of players born in 93-94 there is going to be more than enough time to get cover from 97 (and there may still be players in the 95-96 range).

Once you are a good side it is much easier to develop quality players. Look at some of the shitful first round recruiting by the Hawks under Clarkson and dearth of impact of first round selections of the Cats in the last 6-7 years.

It's a great irony that after this whole debacle, it's now a risk management issue. There's an inherent risk with every draft selection (in terms of opportunity cost) so you need to make a number of selections, some of which have better odds (i.e. first or second round choices), in order to keep pace with everyone else (trying to overtake anyone through the 2013-14 drafts is just not happening). From a risk mitigation perspective (i.e. looking away from a traditional football perspective), the sensible thing to do would be to weaken one of our great strengths in order to strengthen a future weakness. That would mean looking at the 1988-1990 age group, which is the core age group of the list, as well as looking at the talls, which is the great positional strength of the list. (Top end midfield is also a strength, in that having Watson, Goddard, Stanton, Heppell and Zaharakis all in the same team is as good as almost any top 5 mids in the comp, but from a footballing perspective trading any of the above would be beyond stupid) Any cross-over between talls and 1988-1990 would be players we can most afford to lose (again, from a risk management viewpoint).

Our 1988-1990 players are (in age order):

Ryder, Jetta, Gumbleton, Crameri, Hardingham, Hooker, Howlett, Myers, Bellchambers, Dell'Olio, Hibberd, Zaharakis, Pears, Hurley, Van Unen, Kommer.

Bolded are the talls. In theory, losing 1-2 of those guys in order to improve our 2013 and 2014 draft position will help us minimise the risk of a St Kilda type disaster in a few years' time. Looking at it from a footballing perspective again, you have to take Ryder, Hurley and Hooker off the table immediately, as vital and irreplaceable players in the short term. That leaves us with Gumbleton, Crameri, Bellchambers and Pears. All of those are either not best 22, or replaceable in the short term as well as the long term. (Bellchambers as a reserve ruck may not be immediately replaceable by equivalent quality, but having a ruck as good as him as back-up is overkill anyway).

To not look at it in terms of avoiding a St Kilda type situation is to go all in on winning a flag and all in on nailing rounds 3, 4 and 5 of this draft. St Kilda went all in, and they lost. If their players had premiership medallions, the fall wouldn't be so hard to take for fans. The likes of Goddard probably wouldn't have left. There's pretty dire consequences for going all in and losing.

If we do go all in, and focus all our list management efforts this year on building for 2014-2016, instead of protecting 2017-2020 as well, we're going to need to absolutely nail our 2015, 2016 and 2017 drafts (difficult to do from the top of the ladder, as to really nail 3 consecutive drafts, you need some genuine stars as well as good players coming through), and ensure that we hammer free agency when it becomes available for 2013-2014 drafted players. It's possible, but it's not common. Geelong is the perfect model - bringing through 1-3 players from every draft so that there's never any need to bottom out. It's an achievable goal, but more than just the genius of Steven Wells, it needs a stable playing group and a strong development system. We're not at that level yet, so we can't be entirely comfortable that we'll nail the 2013-14 drafts. 2012 is looking decidedly risky in hindsight and in the context of 3 lost picks over two years as well.

As an aside, here's St Kilda's class of 1991-1992: Tom Lee, Tom Hickey, Dylan Roberton, Tom Ledger, Daniel Markworth, Tom Curren, Jackson Ferguson, Arryn Siposs. To be fair to them, their seemingly shambolic trade period last year makes a lot more sense now, but even so, there's not a heap there. Dylan Roberton is exactly the type of player we need to be targeting in 3 years. Talented fringe player wanting to come back to Victoria from a draft age that we've missed out on.

 

[Ben the Gooner]

This would surprise me greatly given where Norf's list stands.

Probably see him as a midfielder.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Not taking Gartlett last year is looking stupider by the day. Oh well can't win them all. That said it was a stuff up anyway you look at it. Would be hesitant to trade TBC as we will need him the next 2 years easpecially. Resign him and he'll be worth just as much in 2 years anyway. Crameri I would shop around a bit, could get a mid to late first rounder.

 

[Zach Package]

much like calyam just did a bit of a hypothetical... assuming no trades for now.

Out (in order from most to least likely IMO):
Hille
NLM
Hunter
Davis

In:
3rd round selection (likely a medium utility/midfielder)
4th round selection/Free agent/Delisted free agent (Ruckman IMO)
Dalgleish
First round rookie selection (best available small, unless we haven't taken a ruckman yet)

It's obviously not ideal, but it's not THAT bad

 

[JR95]

Yes. Kakkle had a close friend text him and that was his response.

That is GOLDEN.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Think you will find that Hunter and Davis might survive as at least we know what we will get from them. Fridge players are less likely to be delisted at years' end now.