Draft Expert PMBangers' (and ‘friends’) 2022 Draft Board

[Blacky]

Mr Bangers, why should I be upset that Adelaide are likely to give up pick 4-7 for Rankine? What player in that range is going to haunt us for a decade.

Paying a top 5 pick for the right to pay someone 800k a year when they aren’t elite is puss

Hope it sets you back for years

 

[Golumless]

Paying a top 5 pick for the right to pay someone 800k a year when they aren’t elite is puss

Hope it sets you back for years

I personally hope that we win 5 premierships during Rankines career after trading for him, but each to their own.

Rankine.

Didn't realise he was eligible for the 2022 draft.

All of them

I think that range has quite a few that Adelaide could do with more than a small forward tbh, Tsatas (speed in the midfield), Cadman (promising KPF partner to TT) and Phillipou (SA local, impactful forward) would all be players that'd be better list fits, but maybe there'll be other trades to address some of thise, and next years pool isn't short of quality players either

Like everyone in the draft? Even me?

I figure this will really be it for '22 additions outside of a couple of draft picks. Pillipou is probably the one i'm going to be most bummed out on if this isn't just a ploy to rob the Suns blind from Izak.

 

[PMBangers]

Like everyone in the draft? Even me?

ESPECIALLY you

 

[Golumless]

ESPECIALLY you

My dream is coming true.

 

[crocdundee]

PMBangers how do you rate jack osullivan, had a good game against Sandringham round 1 but havent heard much more about him. what do you think his range is?

 

[PMBangers]

PMBangers how do you rate jack osullivan, had a good game against Sandringham round 1 but havent heard much more about him. what do you think his range is?

Unfortunately he's just gotten some injuries at the wrong time this year, but I still very much like him as a prospect. I do wonder whether he'll have the similar question marks that Darcy Jones and Blake Drury have, where do they play at the next level? Like those guys he's playing best through the midfield currently but are likely going to have to be small forwards to make the step up, and there's not a lot of evidence that they'll play that role well yet. If I had to guess, he's probably going to find himself in the third round bracket

 

[RanaNaved]

O'Sullivan reminds me a little of a younger Dalhaus. Always on the move and a bit feisty

 

[pushintheback]

Unfortunately he's just gotten some injuries at the wrong time this year, but I still very much like him as a prospect. I do wonder whether he'll have the similar question marks that Darcy Jones and Blake Drury have, where do they play at the next level? Like those guys he's playing best through the midfield currently but are likely going to have to be small forwards to make the step up, and there's not a lot of evidence that they'll play that role well yet. If I had to guess, he's probably going to find himself in the third round bracket

He reminds me of Yusif Dib last year. Quality player but maybe stiff to miss out. Hopefully he gets on a list even as a rookie.

 

[sruss]

Any worries of Sheezel or Tsatas being flight risks?

I’ve heard from people that know the Sheezel that he doesn’t want to leave Vic, but that’s second hand info.

 

[PMBangers]

He reminds me of Yusif Dib last year. Quality player but maybe stiff to miss out. Hopefully he gets on a list even as a rookie.

I think there's a bit of difference, O'Sullivan has much cleaner skills, a bit of extra height and I'd argue that he's proven to be a bit harder at it, as well as more defensively accountable. Last year I thought Dib was a rookie at best, but I wouldn't be shocked to see O'Sullivan go second round if a club thinks he's got a clear path as a pressure forward

 

[pushintheback]

I think there's a bit of difference, O'Sullivan has much cleaner skills, a bit of extra height and I'd argue that he's proven to be a bit harder at it, as well as more defensively accountable. Last year I thought Dib was a rookie at best, but I wouldn't be shocked to see O'Sullivan go second round if a club thinks he's got a clear path as a pressure forward

yep fair point.

 

[RedmanWasHere]

Wonder if there'll be any "bolters" who were highly talked about last year but weren't talked about because of not being flavour of the month.

 

[Futbolista]

Wonder if there'll be any "bolters" who were highly talked about last year but weren't talked about because of not being flavour of the month.

Speaking of Flavour of the month...I never knew until now how the month of 18's championships counts for 95% of recruiter viewpoints.

Maybe some Vic NAB games and a SA or WA final here or there count but it's basically the 18's championships. A lot of footy get's played and I've learnt heaps just by watching guys play consistently week in week out.

Thank goodness the scribes here are more open minded.

 

[foj1]

Speaking of Flavour of the month...I never knew until now how the month of 18's championships counts for 95% of recruiter viewpoints.

Maybe some Vic NAB games and a SA or WA final here or there count but it's basically the 18's championships. A lot of footy get's played and I've learnt heaps just by watching guys play consistently week in week out.

Thank goodness the scribes here are more open minded.

Who has been hard done by?

 

[Mutineer]

Who has been hard done by?

Kobe Ryan

 

[Futbolista]

Who has been hard done by?

I only focus on WA. The guys who cover all of Australia do a terrific job here and I'm not capable of that kind of research.

I do post a weekly round-up of WA players on the WA 2022 thread and I've mentioned a number of names there.

One of the players I really rate is Ryan Newick and luckily someone has posted a highlights video from a couple of his matches. He didn't get in the state squad so he's on the back foot.

 

[all seeing eye]

Speaking of Flavour of the month...I never knew until now how the month of 18's championships counts for 95% of recruiter viewpoints.

Maybe some Vic NAB games and a SA or WA final here or there count but it's basically the 18's championships. A lot of footy get's played and I've learnt heaps just by watching guys play consistently week in week out.

Thank goodness the scribes here are more open minded.

Think you will find that recruiters base their assessments on years of watching these kids from underage footy right thru till their u18s year. They would have a spreadsheet of targets already developed with the champs being just the cream on the top , confirming there thoughts or raising doubts. There is always bolters of course who develop late and players that are unknown quantities due to long term injury.

 

[pushintheback]

Think you will find that recruiters base their assessments on years of watching these kids from underage footy right thru till their u18s year. They would have a spreadsheet of targets already developed with the champs being just the cream on the top , confirming there thoughts or raising doubts. There is always bolters of course who develop late and players that are unknown quantities due to long term injury.

Correct. The national champs is to see how they go against the best in the country. Some of these kids have been identified from u13 or u14. If they play well at the champs clubs it will help solidify the clubs decision and ranking of the player but if they have a poor carnival they could slip in their rankings. However, just because a kid plays in the champs is not a guarantee they get drafted.

 

[Futbolista]

Yes all true but if a player doesn't make the state squad then he is completely up against it.

I know talent evaluation is subjective yet so much hinges on a small number of state selectors.

I must admit that I did get stuck on names from the previous seasons as state selectors do but this year a lot of players in WA have emerged late having never been part of academy squads and I find that aspect the most interesting part of watching every match.

I guess they have to hope that the final decisions for 2022 haven't been made.

In fact I'm trying to forget what happened in previous seasons and focus instead on form right now and if that means some of my favourite players slip down my list then so be it. I think we all saw the difference in form for many WA state players from 2021 to 2022. Quite a number slipped but they were held onto anyway.

I suppose nobody was to know they would slip but now we do know and the unlucky late developers that didn't get the chance need to be looked at now while there is still a little bit of time in the season.

 

[pushintheback]

.....and in breaking news the Final Siren has released a podcast today!

 

[ChasingFlags25]

I only focus on WA. The guys who cover all of Australia do a terrific job here and I'm not capable of that kind of research.

I do post a weekly round-up of WA players on the WA 2022 thread and I've mentioned a number of names there.

One of the players I really rate is Ryan Newick and luckily someone has posted a highlights video from a couple of his matches. He didn't get in the state squad so he's on the back foot.

PMBangers, would be interested in hearing your thoughts on why a Newick type gets overlooked. I noticed him and started watching some Subiaco games after seeing Futbolista’s posts, I’m a fan of his style of play.

 

[Goosecat]

Speaking of Flavour of the month...I never knew until now how the month of 18's championships counts for 95% of recruiter viewpoints.

Maybe some Vic NAB games and a SA or WA final here or there count but it's basically the 18's championships. A lot of footy get's played and I've learnt heaps just by watching guys play consistently week in week out.

Thank goodness the scribes here are more open minded.

I think others have touched on it but basically they do get followed for years from younger ages. There are always the exceptions to every rule but generally historically the games where they have to step up and play against the best rather then perhaps over-performing against lesser players is important.
It's not the be all and end all, some kids for example go into their shells a bit when surrounded by higher level players initially. Not necessarily because they can't compete or beat others talent wise but because they have reservations around stepping on others toes etc. These kids can often be late bloomers who don't feel comfortable going all out and demanding etc initially.
It's actually a really tough gig to get right. Generally the public focuses on the relatively easy early picks but in truth there's a lot of spots that have to be filled after those (in fact the majority) and it's really quite a lottery frankly as to who will make the massive lift in level required for most to make it in the AFL.
Everyone thinks they're an expert but in truth there are scouts and draft experts all around the country, from all different back-grounds and exposure levels associated with all different teams and organisations, whom in truth (by sheer numbers and mathematical reality) find the majority, yes that's right; the majority of all draft selections, never actually make the grade. The grade being; managing 100 games. Not 250, not 200 not even 150, but 100.
Despite all the expertise; any pick less than the top 20 has a less than 50% chance of playing 100 games. The truth is; that is the majority of the draft numbers. In other words despite all the expertise around the country, for decades, it is still basically a toss of the coin for anything past pick 20.

 

[Futbolista]

I think others have touched on it but basically they do get followed for years from younger ages. There are always the exceptions to every rule but generally historically the games where they have to step up and play against the best rather then perhaps over-performing against lesser players is important.
It's not the be all and end all, some kids for example go into their shells a bit when surrounded by higher level players initially. Not necessarily because they can't compete or beat others talent wise but because they have reservations around stepping on others toes etc. These kids can often be late bloomers who don't feel comfortable going all out and demanding etc initially.
It's actually a really tough gig to get right. Generally the public focuses on the relatively easy early picks but in truth there's a lot of spots that have to be filled after those (in fact the majority) and it's really quite a lottery frankly as to who will make the massive lift in level required for most to make it in the AFL.
Everyone thinks they're an expert but in truth there are scouts and draft experts all around the country, from all different back-grounds and exposure levels associated with all different teams and organisations, whom in truth (by sheer numbers and mathematical reality) find the majority, yes that's right; the majority of all draft selections, never actually make the grade. The grade being; managing 100 games. Not 250, not 200 not even 150, but 100.
Despite all the expertise; any pick less than the top 20 has a less than 50% chance of playing 100 games. The truth is; that is the majority of the draft numbers. In other words despite all the expertise around the country, for decades, it is still basically a toss of the coin for anything past pick 20.

That's a refreshing post.

Maybe they could play the championships in October when there is a lot more "current" data to pick a state squad from?

 

[Goosecat]

That's a refreshing post.

Maybe they could play the championships in October when there is a lot more "current" data to pick a state squad from?

There's often more injuries accumulated towards the end of a season, that applies to all grades and many parents want the kids to lessen the football load and increase "academic" time toward the back end of the year. No one is really keen on extending things further for the kids.

 

[Thetrader15]

All of them

I think that range has quite a few that Adelaide could do with more than a small forward tbh, Tsatas (speed in the midfield), Cadman (promising KPF partner to TT) and Phillipou (SA local, impactful forward) would all be players that'd be better list fits, but maybe there'll be other trades to address some of thise, and next years pool isn't short of quality players either

Where do you think Rankine would go in this draft if he was in it?