Polls Thread Mk III

[Gough]

Have you ever seen politics work it out for massively unpopular prime ministers?

Usually it's events that intervene.

As much as I would like to see the back of Tony Abbott, I think it would take a massive change of mood to unseat a government that was elected on a landslide at the first time of asking, Australian politics has been a touch other wordly for the last four years though, so who knows? We probably need to see the second budget before we can really mark the Abbott government, but he's certainly made a good hash of the first six months if polling is a guide and the political capital he had from the election is diminishing rapidly.
I'm becoming certain that Shorten is playing a very small target game as opposition leader and letting Abbott's actions and words define him, people will want more from him as the election approaches, and a question remains about the ALP still being on the nose with the electorate, but this may be a good tactic. Time will tell.

 

[pjcrows]

I still say Shorten pushing hard to win the leadership so soon after an election loss will cost him any chance of being PM.

 

[RUNVS]

I still say Shorten pushing hard to win the leadership so soon after an election loss will cost him any chance of being PM.

It might. At this stage it is hard to tell.

To be honest a year before the next election I want Labor to come out and release a new tax code they will implement when coming into power including increase taxes for anyone earning over $70,000 as well as reductions in various corporate welfare payments. I want Labor to be 100% honest with what they will do in power. Even with the announcements in the increase in taxes I am hopeful people will still vote for them as they will like Labor's honesty.

 

[samFFC]

It was far too soon for him to come in and swing cuts left right and centre. Should have waited until next budget.

Why so? This way, the govt have more than 2 full years for people to forgive and forget.

Latest Bludger Track: Labor up 52.4-47.6%.
PUP holding up around 6%, Greens 11.5%.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2014/05/08/bludgertrack-52-4-47-6-to-labor-2/

 

[clogged]

As much as I would like to see the back of Tony Abbott, I think it would take a massive change of mood to unseat a government that was elected on a landslide at the first time of asking, Australian politics has been a touch other wordly for the last four years though, so who knows? We probably need to see the second budget before we can really mark the Abbott government, but he's certainly made a good hash of the first six months if polling is a guide and the political capital he had from the election is diminishing rapidly.
I'm becoming certain that Shorten is playing a very small target game as opposition leader and letting Abbott's actions and words define him, people will want more from him as the election approaches, and a question remains about the ALP still being on the nose with the electorate, but this may be a good tactic. Time will tell.

It's rare, but wild swings in politics are becoming more common. Just a few years back Labor had their highest representation in state and federal politics ever. Now it's probably close to their lowest.

For some reason, the NSW state government is immensely unpopular and at real risk of losing the next election. This was unthinkable in 2010. And should still be, given how rotten NSW Labor is.

 

[Adz]

Why so? This way, the govt have more than 2 full years for people to forgive and forget.

Latest Bludger Track: Labor up 52.4-47.6%.
PUP holding up around 6%, Greens 11.5%.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2014/05/08/bludgertrack-52-4-47-6-to-labor-2/

Like the public forgot about the carbon tax? Won't happen.

 

[Hank Scorpion]

Why so? This way, the govt have more than 2 full years for people to forgive and forget.

Latest Bludger Track: Labor up 52.4-47.6%.
PUP holding up around 6%, Greens 11.5%.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2014/05/08/bludgertrack-52-4-47-6-to-labor-2/

Interesting to note a 10% swing in Queensland. An extraordinary turnaround given there was a chance of a wipeout last election.

It's rare, but wild swings in politics are becoming more common. Just a few years back Labor had their highest representation in state and federal politics ever. Now it's probably close to their lowest.

For some reason, the NSW state government is immensely unpopular and at real risk of losing the next election. This was unthinkable in 2010. And should still be, given how rotten NSW Labor is.

http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2013/11/labor-hits-new-low-of-post-war-seats.html

If my calculations are correct, they've equalled their post-war low, could have been worse too if SA Labor hadn't held back the swing. All within six years.

I'd expect there to be a big swing towards the minor parties next year in Queensland and NSW.

 

[samFFC]

Like the public forgot about the carbon tax? Won't happen.

But if they make the cuts next budget, then it's the same deal? Just with 1 less year to smooth it over in the public. I agree the public isn't likely to complete forget, but Abbott/Hockey are giving themselves maximum time until next election.

 

[pjcrows]

Latest Essential has Shorten ahead on PPM.

 

[Pessimistic]

Someone noted the expected fuel excise will be the equvlent of a carbon tax at $24 a tonne

 

[Docker Clint]

Latest Essential has Shorten ahead on PPM.

No wonder he's quiet. Doesn't have to do anything.

 

[Hank Scorpion]

Essential Research
Primary
Coalition: 40 (-)
ALP: 39 (+1)
Green: 9 (-1)
PUP: 5 (-)

TPP
Coalition: 48 (-)
ALP: 52 (-)

Leaders' Approval (Approve(+/-)/Disapprove(+/-))
Abbott: 35 (-6)/55 (+8)
Shorten: 35 (+1)/37 (-1)

Preferred PM
Abbott: 36 (-6)
Shorten: 37 (+5)

A lot of issues relating to the budget also polled, see link for full details

On tax, most respondents were in favour of increasing taxes on the wealthy and large corporations, including mining.

Support for COA's recommendations (Support-Oppose)
Privatise Australia Post: 18-54
Privatise Snowy Hydro: 16-39
Privatise Australian Mint:15-49
Medicare Co-Payments: 25-55
Deregulation of Uni fees: 17-43
HELP repayments start from min. wage: 50-24
Unemployed youth relocation: 44-31
Pension Age to 70yrs: 18-62


http://essentialvision.com.au/documents/essential_report_140513.pdf

 

[RUNVS]

Unemployed youth relocation: 44-31

What's to bet the 44% of people who support are mostly over 30?

 

[poller]

Leaders' Approval (Approve(+/-)/Disapprove(+/-))
Abbott: 35 (-6)/55 (+8)
Shorten: 35 (+1)/37 (-1)

Preferred PM
Abbott: 36 (-6)
Shorten: 37 (+5)

Has any opposition leader been preferred pm as quick as shorten has in a poll ?

 

[Hank Scorpion]

Has any opposition leader been preferred pm as quick as shorten has in a poll ?

Quick search finds that Rudd had overtaken Howard in PPM within about 4 months.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Pollchart-ppm.svg

This is a more staggering result however as it is a first-term government against a LOTO that isn't particularly charismatic or visible.

 

[medusala]

Someone noted the expected fuel excise will be the equvlent of a carbon tax at $24 a tonne

Cant see rural and regional Australia liking it given its such a big cost for them. Wouldnt want to be a Nats mp this week.

 

[RUNVS]

It will be really interesting when the next lot of polls come out.

 

[Hodgepodge]

Typically I'd agree, but the extent of the backlash is pretty intense.

Also it's going to be hard for him to take any promises to the next election since he's been found to have lied through his teeth here.

 

[Pessimistic]

Also it's going to be hard for him to take any promises to the next election since he's been found to have lied through his teeth here.

Not just lies but a list of lies. GST aside you could assume they will do the exact opposite if their promises

 

[swingdog]

The run of recent lies is like giving someone a 50 metre penalty which rakes them to the goal line.

Still got to kick it, though.

 

[Hank Scorpion]

Galaxy Poll - 1400 sample size
Primary
Coalition: 38 (-1)
ALP: 38 (+1)
Green: 10 (-1)
PUP: 8 (+2)

TPP
Coalition: 47 (-1)
ALP: 53 (+1)

Budget: Good or bad for economy?
Good: 41
Bad: 48

Budget: Personally, better/worse off?
Better: 11
Worse: 74

Not as violent as I'd expected, although I suspect this is a more conservative poll. We should probably see a Newspoll, Essential and possibly ReachTel by the end of the week which will give a good indication of the sentiment.

AFAIK Palmer's 8% is the highest it's ever been.

It isn't often polled, but I'd be curious to see how much Abbott's trustworthiness has plummeted by following the budget. Could suffer as Gillard did if the electorate stops listening.

 

[poller]

That Galaxy poll shows a worrying sign for the coalition primary going downwards
they will not win with a primary vote of 38% , if it falls down to 35% or lower in the next 4 months , be interesting to see how the liberals will re-act it will be hard under Abbott , to gain the ground they lost

 

[pjcrows]

Labor would be disappointed with this one I think.

 

[Pessimistic]

Labor would be disappointed with this one I think.

There'd be limits on how low it could go in ashort time. Budget or otherwise.And the budget hasn't bitten yet

The other point is if you dont want your primary vote to nosedive, stay out of government

 

[poller]

Labor would be disappointed with this one I think.

Don't know theres nearly the double of the swing against the government , which labor requires to get into government