Polls Thread Mk III

[Kyptastic]

For reference, 56% is the highest 2PP Labor got to prior to the last election, just after the time that Scott Morrison rolled Turnbull. It was back to 52% just before the election, with the actual TPP ending up at 48.5%/51.5% for the election.

 

[Romeoh1]

The ALP didn’t actually lose by much at the last election- it just gets a bit skewed because everyone thought they’d win. Can’t see them losing this time.

 

[HurleyHepsHird]

There is no way we are going to see that replicated in May - surely.

You doomed us all.

To the question "could Scott Morrison **** up even worse in the coming months", it seems the answer is a resounding yes.

 

[DaRick]

The ALP didn’t actually lose by much at the last election- it just gets a bit skewed because everyone thought they’d win. Can’t see them losing this time.

The 2PP made the victory look more resounding than it was because of the blowouts in many QLD seats, especially the Adani seats (Capricornia, Herbert, Dawson).

ScoMo's capacity to win the election depends on how virulent COVID is by May, what it has mutated to (if anything), and most importantly, its effect on the economy. We may not have had lockdowns, but consumers are spending (and behaving) as if we are in lockdown, so the chances of there being a consumption-led boom caused by consumers going out and spending pent-up savings is diminishing, and with that goes ScoMo's chances.

I think the only thing that could possibly save ScoMo if things continue as they are is the ALP reprising 2019, which won't happen. Even an unremarkable campaign will likely get them over the line if things continue like this.

 

[Baltimore Jack]

Federal Latest:

56 - 44

 

[Elroo]

ALP (56%) increases lead over the L-NP (44%) in January as ‘Omicron surge’ causes problems around Australia

www.roymorgan.com

ALP support is now at 56% (up 0.5% points since mid-December) cf. L-NP on 44% (down 0.5% points) on a two-party preferred basis according to the latest Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention conducted during the first half of January.

The swing to the ALP came as the Government struggled with a surge in cases of the highly infectious ‘Omicron strain’ of COVID-19 which was first reported in NSW in early December. Over the last month nearly two million Australians have been recorded as infected with ‘Omicron’ and the spread of the virus has forced millions of Australians into isolation either because they were infected with the virus or forced to isolate due to be a close contact of a confirmed case.
If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would be elected with a similar margin to that won by Malcolm Fraser at the 1975 Federal Election (L-NCP 55.7% cf. ALP 44.3%).

 

[Baltimore Jack]

5 Marginal Queensland seats swing to Labor
Longman, Leichhardt, Dickson, Brisbane and Ryan

Roy Morgan

 

[Gough]

Inshallah Dickson.

 

[Gough]

It would really piss off Spud if he lost to Ali France as well. The Dorian Gray alpha male losing to a woman of all people.

 

[HurleyHepsHird]

ALP (56%) increases lead over the L-NP (44%) in January as ‘Omicron surge’ causes problems around Australia

www.roymorgan.com

ALP support is now at 56% (up 0.5% points since mid-December) cf. L-NP on 44% (down 0.5% points) on a two-party preferred basis according to the latest Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention conducted during the first half of January.

Morrison is so destructive and unworried about the public or national wellbeing that it is hard to imagine him no ****ing up or having another big scandal between now and the election.

Everytime he is presented with a slamdunk, he bricks it.

 

[HurleyHepsHird]

It would really piss off Spud if he lost to Ali France as well. The Dorian Gray alpha male losing to a woman of all people.

Sadly, there's no way Dutton loses his seat.

 

[Hornberger]

Does anyone know when the next newspoll will be published?

 

[ExcitementMachine]

I think it's a bit optimistic to think that ALP would do those things

We need ALP in for at least two terms, so can't rock the boat too hard in the first.

 

[DaRick]

Sadly, there's no way Dutton loses his seat.

A few things RE Dud-ton:

1) He's survived in Dickson for so long partially because of the sheer apathy of his own electorate.

2) He has no personal vote - his PV actually went down fractionally in 2019; it was UAP/ON that propped his 2PP up. Since Clive apparently plans to unseat him (maybe because Clive relies on China too much to stomach Dutton's anti-China comments), I don't think that will be happening this time. I don't expect ON to do as well either, mostly because protest parties - particularly ones led by Pauline - have a history of flaming out. I'm not sure that being openly anti-vax will be much of a vote winner, either.

3) He's disliked in Strathpine and Arana Hills, he's relatively liked in Albany Creek and the semi-rural/rural areas (Samford) go a long way towards propping him up. According to campbell there's already anti-Dutton material in Albany Creek. While voter sentiments can certainly change, I know all too well that anti-Dutton material in areas that favour Dutton spells trouble for Dutton, unless the pandemic/economic situation markedly improves.

Of course, his electorate could be sufficiently apathetic that they'd vote him in again, but if I was Dutton, I wouldn't be counting on it. IMO he has some work to do to retain his seat.

Emotionally, I'd like to see the cockroach gone, but strategically I wouldn't mind him staying in. It improves the chance that he'll try and offer some strong Queensland leadership, whether in office or in opposition.

 

[DaRick]

5 Marginal Queensland seats swing to Labor
Longman, Leichhardt, Dickson, Brisbane and Ryan

Roy Morgan

I dislike seat-by-seat analysis, but I've come around to thinking that Longman has a good chance of falling.

A pandemic ripping through the state + a weak local MP (apparently) + a population full of retirees + UAP/ON trying an anti-vax campaign should ensure an ALP gain, provided that they don't do anything ******ed.

Dickson I've already commented on; Brisbane and Ryan are inner-city electorates. Brisbane is not unlike Higgins; a mixture of Green/LNP areas. Ryan is more like a slightly more socon-ish version of Wentworth (neoliberal, full of well-off people). ScoMo isn't exactly a sensation in those sorts of areas, so I can see them falling.

Leichardt I don't see falling as of yet. Warren Entsch is a well-regarded, long-serving local member, and given that he's been serving for 25 years, he'd be one of the sanest QLD LNP MP's.

That being said, when Queensland swings, it swings hard. If Queensland's voters really want you gone, then relatively few QLD seats are truly safe.

 

[kranky al]

Morrison is so destructive and unworried about the public or national wellbeing that it is hard to imagine him no ******* up or having another big scandal between now and the election.

Everytime he is presented with a slamdunk, he bricks it.

He slamdunks funking up.

That saying “he waits till a problem becomes a crisis then mishandles it” was made for him.

 

[Baltimore Jack]

Stokes/7 Poll

 

[HurleyHepsHird]

Stokes/7 Poll

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Criiiiikey.

 

[kranky al]

Stokes/7 Poll

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Is that aus wide or wa?

 

[Hank Scorpion]

Stokes/7 Poll

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Serious doubt without clarifying their methodology.

Back-of-the-envelope calc would put Labor on about 61% 2PP. ( )

And sadly, the LNP have a lot more rusted-on than that

 

[Ned_Flanders]

Serious doubt without clarifying their methodology.

Back-of-the-envelope calc would put Labor on about 61% 2PP. ( )

And sadly, the LNP have a lot more rusted-on than that

yeah I wouldnt be betting the barn on any poll like this

 

[DaRick]

Serious doubt without clarifying their methodology.

Back-of-the-envelope calc would put Labor on about 61% 2PP. ( )

And sadly, the LNP have a lot more rusted-on than that

Their commentary is interesting, although you get the teeniest, tinest impression that the author has a few bones to pick with ScoMo (albeit not unreasonably):

https://korecsr.com/2022/01/22/kore-poll-5-job-approval-rats-and-djokovic/

They pretty much state a few things:
1) The election will be significantly closer than those figures would suggest
2) There could still be a 1998-style situation in which Albo does achieve significant swings, and even a positive 2PP, but can't win enough seats to shift government
3) You have a candidate that inspires ambivalence (Albo) versus a candidate that inspires contempt (ScoMo) - hence the slight edge to Albo on the Incumbent vs Challenger scale
4) The whole Djokovic saga comes out as a total wash

I will state my own thoughts:
1) Assuming they haven't cherry-picked those comments to suit their own agenda, the hatred towards Scott Morrison in parts of the electorate that naturally favour the LNP (retirees, rusted-on seats like QLD's Groom) reminds me of the situation in QLD 2015. Assuming that this stands come election time (which it may not), you'll get a situation where they won't necessarily vote for the ALP because they're not convinced by the challenger (Annastacia/Albo) but they sure as hell won't vote for ScoMo/Newman either.

2) The upshot of this is that you'll see large swings to the ALP nationwide, and in places that you wouldn't necessarily expect. Not the degree that you saw in QLD 2015 because the ALP aren't starting from such a low base, but enough to raise eyebrows.

3) Because people don't want to vote for ScoMo/Newman, there's a very good chance that the pro-LNP vote (LNP/ON/UAP) fragments because more preferences go the ALP's way, which would improve the ALP's 2PP. ON openly running an anti-vax campaign despite their base skewing older IMO won't do them any favours, any more than them running an open borders campaign (no, really) in 2020 did - retirees might be socially conservative, but they're not necessarily conspiracy theorists and they generally don't like dying, so one assumes that they won't back in a party that would gladly increase their chances of dying.

Plus protest parties, particularly ones led by Pauline/Clive, have a history of flaming out and there's no Adani/franking credits to act as a lightning rod to direct preferences. Not to mention that Clive apparently wants Dutton gone.

4) In a situation resembling a hung parliament, I think the ALP gets over the line - the independents may not necessarily care for them, but they sure as hell know that their constitutents don't want the LNP in charge. Plus, ScoMo bitching about independents, plus his browbeating, bullying style, suggests that he won't be able to negotiate with them effectively (ala Abbott). Albo, like Gillard, will seem more conciliatory by comparison so they'd generally back him.

5) This is Biden vs Trump all over again. You've got a weak challenger versus a wretched incumbent. Unfortunately for ScoMo, Australia has compulsory voting, so he can't just fire up his base and rely on voter apathy towards Biden to save the day. Also, it certainly doesn't seem that he has his base under lock-and-key like Trump did. In ScoMo's favour, he still has time to turn things around, but his window his closing and he isn't doing himself many favours ATM.

6) The LNP might try to knife ScoMo for The Fry or Dud-ton, which would change the calculus somewhat. The Fry would be a better choice - he has issues in VIC, but IMO Victorians are more parochial than they would probably care to admit (hence their extremely negative attitude towards an out-of-stater in Dutton criticising them in 2018), and he isn't detested like ScoMo is down there. He should shore up the LNP's vote in WA as well, by virtue of not being ScoMo.

That said, his manner is much more Costello than Hawke, so I suspect that his performance in QLD will make Turnbull's in 2016 look heroic. Turnbull did OK in Brisbane itself, but poorly outside of it. I suspect that The Fry will do OK in inner-city Brisbane, but not so well in Brisbane's suburbs, and his performance outside of Brisbane will be total cringe. QLD might not care for inner-city elites, but they care even less for inner-city VIC elites, since they're perceived as being off in their own little world (not unreasonably; even inner-city Melbourne is different from Melbourne's suburbs).

On election night, I figured that Trump had a 25% chance of winning the election after I weighed everything up (538, commentary from Americans, Biden vs Trump posters, betting agencies). Back in December, I gave Albo a 55-60% chance; now I'll give him a 65% chance. IOW he's definitely more likely than not to win, but ScoMo is by no means out of it.

 

[Vindicater]

Stokes/7 Poll

View attachment 1315274

Means absolutely nothing.

Was done via surveymonkey and you onoy needed a link.

 

[Magruder]

This is a prime example of opinion poll being used to push an agenda.

Usually friendly media starting to run stories that are anti Morrison with the odd positive Albo article.

And it doesn’t hurt to hedge your bets if you’re an oligarch

 

[DaRick]

This is a prime example of opinion poll being used to push an agenda.

Usually friendly media starting to run stories that are anti Morrison with the odd positive Albo article.

And it doesn’t hurt to hedge your bets if you’re an oligarch

Absolutely not - though your erstwhile media buddies turning on you usually isn't a great sign.

Just ask Tony Abbott.