Polls Thread Mk III

[Number37]

Yay or Nay...
If Scummo lost his seat but the LNP won the election would you be somewhat satisfied?

 

[Vindicater]

Yay or Nay...
If Scummo lost his seat but the LNP won the election would you be somewhat satisfied?

Nay.

 

[Groucho]

Yay or Nay...
If Scummo lost his seat but the LNP won the election would you be somewhat satisfied?

Hell no

 

[Pessimistic]

Megs Lees started the decline with the GST split, but in 2001 they still had over 7% of the vote. Under Natasha Stott Despoja, despite her youth appeal this crashed to barely 2%

They used to be the centralists who "kept the bastards honest", but under Stott Despoja they morphed into Greens Lite (and the Greens frankly did a far superior job chasing the same.audience)

Indeed the democrats enabling liberal was far worse for them than the greens enabling labor

 

[Pessimistic]

Btw did scomo write their attack ad? Wet lettuce territory

 

[Kyptastic]

Yay or Nay...
If Scummo lost his seat but the LNP won the election would you be somewhat satisfied?

If the swing was to the point that Scomo lost his seat then the Liberal members of parliament could probably carpool on sitting days in a Toyota Yaris

 

[Number37]

If the swing was to the point that Scomo lost his seat then the Liberal members of parliament could probably carpool on sitting days in a Toyota Yaris

My question was more to see if Scummo had stepped aside/been ousted would the LNP have been more palatable.
The answer I most often get is. Yeah. Nah.

 

[Vindicater]

Hey where is magpie boy?

Been doom and gloom every chance he gets this week and now nesspoll shows zero movement qnd he is nowhere to be seen?

 

[Baltimore Jack]

Yay or Nay...
If Scummo lost his seat but the LNP won the election would you be somewhat satisfied?

That would give us Dutton as PM

 

[Baltimore Jack]

So after a week like that, the LNP Primary vote actually dropped

True Sory

 

[Baltimore Jack]

RM Yesterday

 

[DaRick]

The impression I get from these polls is that Albo's gaffe caused some doubts about the ALP, but they still don't like the LNP.

ScoMo should do fairly well with ON preferences given his backing of a bigot like Deves, but UAP preferences will be more scattershot than in 2019 - probably closer to 2013. The Greens will move preferences away from ScoMo, as would teal voters.

I give the ALP a 55-60% chance of forming government right now.

 

[Baltimore Jack]

Is Newspoll still and landline based poll?

With 700,000 new voters registering to vote, I'm guessing most are 18 year old first time voters who have only ever owned a Mobile phone

 

[Vindicater]

Is Newspoll still and landline based poll?

With 700,000 new voters registering to vote, I'm guessing most are 18 year old first time voters who have only ever owned a Mobile phone

No. It is done through a site called yougov

 

[Hank Scorpion]

Is Newspoll still and landline based poll?

With 700,000 new voters registering to vote, I'm guessing most are 18 year old first time voters who have only ever owned a Mobile phone

Think they've included mobiles for some years now.

Regardless, any pollster worth their salt will weight responses on age/gender to match the population.

 

[Hank Scorpion]

North Sydney

LIB: 37
IND (Tink): 19
ALP: 17
GRN: 9
UAP: 6
Oth: 4

Undec: 8

Voters in hotly contested Liberal-held seat rank climate and environment over economy, poll finds

Integrity also considered a key issue in poll of voters in Liberal-held seat of North Sydney, reflecting results of wider poll of marginal seats across country

www.theguardian.com

Would be 50-50 by my calculation. Less than 40% rusted on Lib is promising, Labor should be running dead to let Tink pass them if they aren't already

 

[Vader]

North Sydney

LIB: 37
IND (Tink): 19
ALP: 17
GRN: 9
UAP: 6
Oth: 4

Undec: 8

Voters in hotly contested Liberal-held seat rank climate and environment over economy, poll finds

Integrity also considered a key issue in poll of voters in Liberal-held seat of North Sydney, reflecting results of wider poll of marginal seats across country

www.theguardian.com

Would be 50-50 by my calculation. Less than 40% rusted on Lib is promising, Labor should be running dead to let Tink pass them if they aren't already

Any Lib who falls below 40% primary vote is in trouble.

 

[Pessimistic]

North Sydney

LIB: 37
IND (Tink): 19
ALP: 17
GRN: 9
UAP: 6
Oth: 4

Undec: 8

Voters in hotly contested Liberal-held seat rank climate and environment over economy, poll finds

Integrity also considered a key issue in poll of voters in Liberal-held seat of North Sydney, reflecting results of wider poll of marginal seats across country

www.theguardian.com

Would be 50-50 by my calculation. Less than 40% rusted on Lib is promising, Labor should be running dead to let Tink pass them if they aren't already

“Put liberal last’

 

[Crankyhawk]

Just got cold called for a redbridge survey.
As per plan pretended to be lnp voter so the bastards get a shock

 

[Hornberger]

Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor; Ipsos: 55-45 – The Poll Bludger

www.pollbludger.net

 

[Hornberger]

Just got cold called for a redbridge survey.
As per plan pretended to be lnp voter so the bastards get a shock

Do you know who Redbridge was conducting the polling for? Was it a media organisation or for an internal poll for one of the parties?

 

[Hank Scorpion]

Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor; Ipsos: 55-45 – The Poll Bludger

www.pollbludger.net

This is going to be a very different country when the Boomers start dying off.

 

[DaRick]

This is going to be a very different country when the Boomers start dying off.

The first half of the Boomers (1946-1954) are in the tank for ScoMo; the second half (1955-1964) are much closer to the rest of the population in terms of voting preferences.

I've always put it down to disparities in education, keeping in mind that it was Gough who made university free, along with 'Howard's battlers' transitioning into 'ScoMo's retirees'. Many of those battlers would have been the first half of the Boomers and they'd be quite nostalgic for Howard and even Menzies. The second half are probably more nostalgic for Hawke, wouldn't remember Menzies, and would remember Fraser's increasingly undistinguished tenure.

 

[Crankyhawk]

Do you know who Redbridge was conducting the polling for? Was it a media organisation or for an internal poll for one of the parties?

No idea. I did Google them to make sure they were legit before providing answers.

 

[Hornberger]

No idea. I did Google them to make sure they were legit before providing answers.

It looks like they are working for the teal independents / Climate 200.

Kooyong published data - methodology | RedBridge Group

The Age reported on Redbridge commissioned polling for Climate 200 here. Redbridge’s methodology and published survey structure were as follows. Series of polls between October 2021 to March 2022. The studies were conducted via touch-tone response automated phone survey. Surveys are conducted...

redbridgegroup.com.au

Polling Council rejects Liberal complaint against Climate 200 polls

However, independent experts have separately raised concerns about “inexcusable” aspects of the polling.

www.smh.com.au