It's easy to look at our form over the first 6 rounds and say "we won't make any significant moves this offseason", but I'm not a fan of this mindset. The fact is, our current form is highly influenced by having a predominantly healthy list right now, in conjunction with player confidence being higher than it has been in years. If 3 of our more important players, let's say Talia, Sloane and Betts, copped 8 week injuries on Saturday night, we'd be pushing shit uphill to scrape into the 8 this year. Other clubs are currently dealing with comparable situations to this. We still have some weaknesses on our list that need to be addressed.
For this reason, I think we need to make a few moves this offseason.
Firstly, the delistings:
1. Lowden - this is equally as obvious as A Graham's delisting a couple of years ago. Even if Sauce went down tomorrow, Lowden would literally be no chance of replacing him in the side, which is damning. O'Brien's emergence has rendered him obsolete.
2. Grigg - during the preseason I really hoped he could make a go of it this year. His footskills are absolutely elite, but unfortunately the rest of his game has regressed to the point where he's not even in the frame to get games if 3 midfield / flanker types get injured tomorrow. I guess there might be another AFL club willing to give us pick 50 odd, but I wouldn't count on it.
3. VB - good bloke, good club man, but the game has well and truly passed him by. This may well end up as a "retirement" rather than a delisting, but it's obvious that he'll be pushed into it.
4. Jaensch - has obviously already happened. Still need to fill his spot on the list this offseason.
Then, we have free agency:
1. Ricky Henderson - solid depth player with some nice skills, but he'll never be best 22 at our club again. He's not a good enough defender to play in a back 7 featuring Brodie Smith, and he's been overtaken on a wing by Atkins, Seedsman and even Mackay. The additions of Menzel and Hampton to the equation make things even harder for Ricky. I say let him go to a Melbourne club to play regular senior footy (Collingwood feels right) and take the probable 3rd round compo pick. Everybody wins.
Then we have players to potentially be traded out (not all of these will go, but I'd be trading precisely 2 of them):
1. CEY - this is the one guy I feel we MUST trade this offseason. I still think he has some value (probably only the equivalent of around pick 35-45, but that's still something), and if we can package him up with the Henderson compo pick, or with our existing 3rd round pick, I feel we can either pick up a handy player, OR get back into the 2nd round of the draft (ie a pick in the mid to late 20s).
2. Mackay - yes we all know he's still got 2 more years left on his ridiculous contract after this year, and we all know that he's reasonably entrenched inside the 22 right now, but this does not make him untradeable. The big question mark is over what other clubs will be willing to give up for him. For me, the emergence of Atkins and Seedsman, combined with the projections in 2017 and beyond for guys like Milera, Hampton, Menzel and Wigg make D-Mac surplus to our requirements. Maybe we can target a shutdown defender here, as I still feel like our defence is leaky.
3. Lyons - this guy is really stiff. I'm not including him here because he's done anything wrong, but I just reckon he might get to a point at the end of 2016 where he's basically said "I've done all I can here". I'd actually really like to retain him as depth but would completely understand if he requests a trade. Similar value to CEY on the open market you'd think.
4. Jenkins - this one is extremely unlikely, and I'd prefer to retain him, but it's a possibility nonetheless. If Jenkins goes, we're either going to be acquiring a key forward type from another club, or we're putting a lot of trust in guys like McGovern and Dear to pick up the slack. I suspect it would be the former. The one thing Jenkins certainly possesses is a reasonably high trade value, so this would send the cat amongst the pigeons. Probably only a 5% chance at this stage, but as each week passes by that probability is sneaking up.
5. The rest of the dregs of our list - guys like Otten, Shaw, Kelly and Dear - are all some sort of chance of being thrown into a deal, but by themselves they have next to no value. I wouldn't have thought either of Gore or Wigg would be in any trade discussions. Doedee obviously isn't going anywhere either.
So, I feel like we'll have the 4 delistings / retirements, 1 FA, plus 2 blokes to be traded out. That's 7 list spots to fill. So let's fill them.
Firstly, we have potential rookie upgrades:
1. O'Brien - an absolute no-brainer. He's already miles ahead of Lowden, so he takes his spot on the senior list in 2017.
2. Beech - not as much of a no-brainer, but I'm coming around to the idea that this may become a reality. Has done everything right so far since joining the club.
Neither of Keath or Greenwood will be upgraded in 2016.
This leaves us 5 list spots to fill via the draft, free agency and trades.
We currently have selections in the 1st, 3rd and 4th rounds of the draft. Hendo leaving via FA would likely give us an additional 3rd round choice. I believe packaging one of those 3rd rounders up with CEY could net us a 2nd rounder or a handy player. I also think we could get something in exchange for a Lyons or Mackay. Jenkins is the wild card, but let's assume he's staying for now.
These remaining 5 spots are likely to be filled by 3 live draft selections and 2 players from other clubs (or perhaps 4 draft picks and 1 player). It's far too early to say who or what types these players (or this player) will be, but I don't feel like we'll be acquiring anyone of excessive value unless we do pull the trigger on a Jenkins trade. I suppose it's possible that we trade our first rounder in a deal for someone like Neale, but I personally don't see it as a likely scenario at all.
As for the rookie list, Ramsey is done. I suppose there's a chance we will re-rookie him, but that's his only hope now. O'Brien is an auto upgrade, and Beech is a certainty to either be upgraded or retained on the rookie list. It's tough to say re Hunter, but I feel like we'll almost definitely keep him for another year. If we assume 2 get upgraded, 1 is retained and 1 is delisted, that leaves us with 3 rookie draft selections.