List Mgmt. Possible trades for 2016

[Elite Crow]

fair point though - from a list management perspective, i wonder if we'd have done anything differently had we known Jaench would pull the plug?

Jaensch pulled the plug because we wanted him to

 

[Mego Red]

I think we need to give Knight or Cameron time back, to see what they have. They've played some as a defensive forwards (well, forwards putting on a lot of defensive pressure) so it's not out of the question.

 

[Sam_Malone]

Jaensch pulled the plug because we wanted him to

Can you explain this a bit more?

I don't get the context behind your statement. I feel I've missed something.

 

[NTRabbit]

Can you explain this a bit more?

I don't get the context behind your statement. I feel I've missed something.

Jaensch leaving was a mutually agreed and planned exit, wasn't a surprise to anyone but the fans. Why exactly he was pushed out is still up for debate.

 

[Sam_Malone]

Jaensch leaving was a mutually agreed and planned exit, wasn't a surprise to anyone but the fans. Why exactly he was pushed out is still up for debate.

Well, it wasn't planned at all.

If it was planned, it was poorly planned as he quit early February. The worse possible timed for list management.

I think he quit and the club didn't bother trying to change his mind.

 

[Vader]

Anyone else think we're a little bit light on for defense depth?
With Laird being injured, it was pretty much Hendo by default as the replacement.
Then you look at our SANFL team this weekend, our backline is Doedee, Keath, Wigg, VB, Gore and Carey. VB and Gore aren't defenders (VB might pretend he is, but he isn't) and Carey isn't on the AFL list. So there's basically 3 backmen in the SANFL this week, 1 of which has played 2 games in 6 years.
So, we have the 3 talls in the AFL team in Talia, Hartigan and Lever.
The 3 small/midsized in the AFL team in Brown, Cheney and Laird.
3 defensive wingmen in Smith, Seeds and Hendo. All of which weren't an option to replace Laird, because they don't really play any actual defense.
3 guys in the SANFL.
Then 4 injured guys in Otten, Kelly, Shaw and Hampton.

Compare that to our forward depth, where we have the 3 talls in the AFL in Tex, JJ and Lynch.
3 small/midsized in the AFL in Betts, Cameron and McGovern.
Attacking wingmen in Mackay and Atkins. Smith, Seeds and Hendo can also play as attacking wingmen.
Lyons, Milera and Douglas are more attacking midfielders. Sloane too.
Then there's Greenwood, Knight, Beech, Menzel, Dear, Ramsay, Lowden and Hunter in the SANFL team.

Does it just seem like the depth isn't there, because all our injuries currently are to backmen? Or are we a little lacking in that department?
And does losing Jaensch (and Reilly) to retirement hurt us more than it may have appeared originally?

Otten is suspended, not injured. But your point remains valid.

If you look at our injury list, every single player who is currently injured, retired, or suspended, is a defender. There's not a single forward or midfielder amongst them - Jaensch (retired), Otten (suspended), Hampton (injured), Laird (injured), Shaw (concussed), Kelly (injured). That's 6 players, all from the same area of the ground, all unavailable. That's not a depth problem - that's sheer dumb luck.

 

[dogs105]

Psssst ......i'm still available ....and i actually fit into that budget

Awesome!



Who should we target with the remaining $799,999.50?

 

[1990crow]

Awesome!



Who should we target with the remaining $799,999.50?

50 cent? Id have paid an M&M.

 

[Pdub]

So if Neale is staying put.. who do we go after with that 800k?

Easier said than done but ideally, we replace 4 players who are worth about $400k each with 4 players who are worth $600K each.

 

[hippyhippy]

Heres an idea for the spare 800k left... hogan.

 

[Sam_Malone]

50 cent? Id have paid an M&M.

I'm sure he would have played for a decent coffee.

 

[Houston]

Who would have thought we'd miss Jaensch

I did, guy was entrenched before his injury.

 

[huludicidal]

It's easy to look at our form over the first 6 rounds and say "we won't make any significant moves this offseason", but I'm not a fan of this mindset. The fact is, our current form is highly influenced by having a predominantly healthy list right now, in conjunction with player confidence being higher than it has been in years. If 3 of our more important players, let's say Talia, Sloane and Betts, copped 8 week injuries on Saturday night, we'd be pushing shit uphill to scrape into the 8 this year. Other clubs are currently dealing with comparable situations to this. We still have some weaknesses on our list that need to be addressed.

For this reason, I think we need to make a few moves this offseason.


Firstly, the delistings:

1. Lowden - this is equally as obvious as A Graham's delisting a couple of years ago. Even if Sauce went down tomorrow, Lowden would literally be no chance of replacing him in the side, which is damning. O'Brien's emergence has rendered him obsolete.

2. Grigg - during the preseason I really hoped he could make a go of it this year. His footskills are absolutely elite, but unfortunately the rest of his game has regressed to the point where he's not even in the frame to get games if 3 midfield / flanker types get injured tomorrow. I guess there might be another AFL club willing to give us pick 50 odd, but I wouldn't count on it.

3. VB - good bloke, good club man, but the game has well and truly passed him by. This may well end up as a "retirement" rather than a delisting, but it's obvious that he'll be pushed into it.

4. Jaensch - has obviously already happened. Still need to fill his spot on the list this offseason.


Then, we have free agency:

1. Ricky Henderson - solid depth player with some nice skills, but he'll never be best 22 at our club again. He's not a good enough defender to play in a back 7 featuring Brodie Smith, and he's been overtaken on a wing by Atkins, Seedsman and even Mackay. The additions of Menzel and Hampton to the equation make things even harder for Ricky. I say let him go to a Melbourne club to play regular senior footy (Collingwood feels right) and take the probable 3rd round compo pick. Everybody wins.


Then we have players to potentially be traded out (not all of these will go, but I'd be trading precisely 2 of them):

1. CEY - this is the one guy I feel we MUST trade this offseason. I still think he has some value (probably only the equivalent of around pick 35-45, but that's still something), and if we can package him up with the Henderson compo pick, or with our existing 3rd round pick, I feel we can either pick up a handy player, OR get back into the 2nd round of the draft (ie a pick in the mid to late 20s).

2. Mackay - yes we all know he's still got 2 more years left on his ridiculous contract after this year, and we all know that he's reasonably entrenched inside the 22 right now, but this does not make him untradeable. The big question mark is over what other clubs will be willing to give up for him. For me, the emergence of Atkins and Seedsman, combined with the projections in 2017 and beyond for guys like Milera, Hampton, Menzel and Wigg make D-Mac surplus to our requirements. Maybe we can target a shutdown defender here, as I still feel like our defence is leaky.

3. Lyons - this guy is really stiff. I'm not including him here because he's done anything wrong, but I just reckon he might get to a point at the end of 2016 where he's basically said "I've done all I can here". I'd actually really like to retain him as depth but would completely understand if he requests a trade. Similar value to CEY on the open market you'd think.

4. Jenkins - this one is extremely unlikely, and I'd prefer to retain him, but it's a possibility nonetheless. If Jenkins goes, we're either going to be acquiring a key forward type from another club, or we're putting a lot of trust in guys like McGovern and Dear to pick up the slack. I suspect it would be the former. The one thing Jenkins certainly possesses is a reasonably high trade value, so this would send the cat amongst the pigeons. Probably only a 5% chance at this stage, but as each week passes by that probability is sneaking up.

5. The rest of the dregs of our list - guys like Otten, Shaw, Kelly and Dear - are all some sort of chance of being thrown into a deal, but by themselves they have next to no value. I wouldn't have thought either of Gore or Wigg would be in any trade discussions. Doedee obviously isn't going anywhere either.


So, I feel like we'll have the 4 delistings / retirements, 1 FA, plus 2 blokes to be traded out. That's 7 list spots to fill. So let's fill them.

Firstly, we have potential rookie upgrades:

1. O'Brien - an absolute no-brainer. He's already miles ahead of Lowden, so he takes his spot on the senior list in 2017.

2. Beech - not as much of a no-brainer, but I'm coming around to the idea that this may become a reality. Has done everything right so far since joining the club.

Neither of Keath or Greenwood will be upgraded in 2016.


This leaves us 5 list spots to fill via the draft, free agency and trades.

We currently have selections in the 1st, 3rd and 4th rounds of the draft. Hendo leaving via FA would likely give us an additional 3rd round choice. I believe packaging one of those 3rd rounders up with CEY could net us a 2nd rounder or a handy player. I also think we could get something in exchange for a Lyons or Mackay. Jenkins is the wild card, but let's assume he's staying for now.

These remaining 5 spots are likely to be filled by 3 live draft selections and 2 players from other clubs (or perhaps 4 draft picks and 1 player). It's far too early to say who or what types these players (or this player) will be, but I don't feel like we'll be acquiring anyone of excessive value unless we do pull the trigger on a Jenkins trade. I suppose it's possible that we trade our first rounder in a deal for someone like Neale, but I personally don't see it as a likely scenario at all.


As for the rookie list, Ramsey is done. I suppose there's a chance we will re-rookie him, but that's his only hope now. O'Brien is an auto upgrade, and Beech is a certainty to either be upgraded or retained on the rookie list. It's tough to say re Hunter, but I feel like we'll almost definitely keep him for another year. If we assume 2 get upgraded, 1 is retained and 1 is delisted, that leaves us with 3 rookie draft selections.

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

It's easy to look at our form over the first 6 rounds and say "we won't make any significant moves this offseason", but I'm not a fan of this mindset.

Absolutely

That's what we thought after 2009 - that we were on the verge of something and had enough talent within.

 

[Scorpus]

Absolutely

That's what we thought after 2009 - that we were on the verge of something and had enough talent within.

We also don't want to do a Port and prematurely overrate our list. Our trades this year need to be balanced and sensible, and we shouldn't lock away mid-tier players on long contracts. Both of these things we did well last year.

 

[Vader]

With Shaw having missed the last month due to concussion, what are the chances of him retiring at the end of the year (possibly even mid-season)? I know he's contracted for 2017, but missing this much footy with that sort of injury doesn't bode well. He wouldn't be the first player to pull the plug on doctors' orders, not even the first this year.

 

[Pdub]

We also don't want to do a Port

Or a Crows in 2002, or a lions in 2009

 

[Squiba]

If Jaensch was still on our list, but had his current mind set, there is no way he would be getting a game. He definitely wasn't a stand out when I popped up to check how he's going.

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

Shaw is contracted for next season which perhaps complicates things a fraction. I'm pleased from his point of view that he has at least some level of job security if this concussion has put his future in doubt.

 

[Jeffcrowe]

It's easy to look at our form over the first 6 rounds and say "we won't make any significant moves this offseason", but I'm not a fan of this mindset. The fact is, our current form is highly influenced by having a predominantly healthy list right now, in conjunction with player confidence being higher than it has been in years. If 3 of our more important players, let's say Talia, Sloane and Betts, copped 8 week injuries on Saturday night, we'd be pushing shit uphill to scrape into the 8 this year. Other clubs are currently dealing with comparable situations to this. We still have some weaknesses on our list that need to be addressed.

For this reason, I think we need to make a few moves this offseason.


Firstly, the delistings:

1. Lowden - this is equally as obvious as A Graham's delisting a couple of years ago. Even if Sauce went down tomorrow, Lowden would literally be no chance of replacing him in the side, which is damning. O'Brien's emergence has rendered him obsolete.

2. Grigg - during the preseason I really hoped he could make a go of it this year. His footskills are absolutely elite, but unfortunately the rest of his game has regressed to the point where he's not even in the frame to get games if 3 midfield / flanker types get injured tomorrow. I guess there might be another AFL club willing to give us pick 50 odd, but I wouldn't count on it.

3. VB - good bloke, good club man, but the game has well and truly passed him by. This may well end up as a "retirement" rather than a delisting, but it's obvious that he'll be pushed into it.

4. Jaensch - has obviously already happened. Still need to fill his spot on the list this offseason.


Then, we have free agency:

1. Ricky Henderson - solid depth player with some nice skills, but he'll never be best 22 at our club again. He's not a good enough defender to play in a back 7 featuring Brodie Smith, and he's been overtaken on a wing by Atkins, Seedsman and even Mackay. The additions of Menzel and Hampton to the equation make things even harder for Ricky. I say let him go to a Melbourne club to play regular senior footy (Collingwood feels right) and take the probable 3rd round compo pick. Everybody wins.


Then we have players to potentially be traded out (not all of these will go, but I'd be trading precisely 2 of them):

1. CEY - this is the one guy I feel we MUST trade this offseason. I still think he has some value (probably only the equivalent of around pick 35-45, but that's still something), and if we can package him up with the Henderson compo pick, or with our existing 3rd round pick, I feel we can either pick up a handy player, OR get back into the 2nd round of the draft (ie a pick in the mid to late 20s).

2. Mackay - yes we all know he's still got 2 more years left on his ridiculous contract after this year, and we all know that he's reasonably entrenched inside the 22 right now, but this does not make him untradeable. The big question mark is over what other clubs will be willing to give up for him. For me, the emergence of Atkins and Seedsman, combined with the projections in 2017 and beyond for guys like Milera, Hampton, Menzel and Wigg make D-Mac surplus to our requirements. Maybe we can target a shutdown defender here, as I still feel like our defence is leaky.

3. Lyons - this guy is really stiff. I'm not including him here because he's done anything wrong, but I just reckon he might get to a point at the end of 2016 where he's basically said "I've done all I can here". I'd actually really like to retain him as depth but would completely understand if he requests a trade. Similar value to CEY on the open market you'd think.

4. Jenkins - this one is extremely unlikely, and I'd prefer to retain him, but it's a possibility nonetheless. If Jenkins goes, we're either going to be acquiring a key forward type from another club, or we're putting a lot of trust in guys like McGovern and Dear to pick up the slack. I suspect it would be the former. The one thing Jenkins certainly possesses is a reasonably high trade value, so this would send the cat amongst the pigeons. Probably only a 5% chance at this stage, but as each week passes by that probability is sneaking up.

5. The rest of the dregs of our list - guys like Otten, Shaw, Kelly and Dear - are all some sort of chance of being thrown into a deal, but by themselves they have next to no value. I wouldn't have thought either of Gore or Wigg would be in any trade discussions. Doedee obviously isn't going anywhere either.


So, I feel like we'll have the 4 delistings / retirements, 1 FA, plus 2 blokes to be traded out. That's 7 list spots to fill. So let's fill them.

Firstly, we have potential rookie upgrades:

1. O'Brien - an absolute no-brainer. He's already miles ahead of Lowden, so he takes his spot on the senior list in 2017.

2. Beech - not as much of a no-brainer, but I'm coming around to the idea that this may become a reality. Has done everything right so far since joining the club.

Neither of Keath or Greenwood will be upgraded in 2016.


This leaves us 5 list spots to fill via the draft, free agency and trades.

We currently have selections in the 1st, 3rd and 4th rounds of the draft. Hendo leaving via FA would likely give us an additional 3rd round choice. I believe packaging one of those 3rd rounders up with CEY could net us a 2nd rounder or a handy player. I also think we could get something in exchange for a Lyons or Mackay. Jenkins is the wild card, but let's assume he's staying for now.

These remaining 5 spots are likely to be filled by 3 live draft selections and 2 players from other clubs (or perhaps 4 draft picks and 1 player). It's far too early to say who or what types these players (or this player) will be, but I don't feel like we'll be acquiring anyone of excessive value unless we do pull the trigger on a Jenkins trade. I suppose it's possible that we trade our first rounder in a deal for someone like Neale, but I personally don't see it as a likely scenario at all.


As for the rookie list, Ramsey is done. I suppose there's a chance we will re-rookie him, but that's his only hope now. O'Brien is an auto upgrade, and Beech is a certainty to either be upgraded or retained on the rookie list. It's tough to say re Hunter, but I feel like we'll almost definitely keep him for another year. If we assume 2 get upgraded, 1 is retained and 1 is delisted, that leaves us with 3 rookie draft selections.

completely agree - we need to do a lesser version of north Melb and top in needs areas with a bit of experienced , hardened talent whilst not giving up too much

1st round pick should be on the table for the right player

One of ( not both) CEY or Lyons should be on the table to help get us back in 2nd round

If they can produce this year ( hopefully CEY plays a few AFL games and performs) then considering kerridge and wrights success other clubs may be willing to part with a 2nd rounder ( Seedsman and Hampton were fringe and were worth 2nd rounders so why not these guys )

If Carlton are after CEY then hopefully we could orchestrate a higher 2nd round - but this definitely depends on him playing some good AFL footy this year

Main point is it's time to pull he trigger on a flag hunt - we need to improve our top end especially in midfield and hope that others in the side continue to improve

I'm of the belief that we need 1-2 in the 25-30 age bracket but heck as long as they are good players who cares if they are 22 yrs old . Must be proven ready to play AFL players to make it worthwhile

2016 ( yes we are a chance this year to go deep) - 2019 is realistically the window for flags

And yes we do need to improve our list significantly - just think how good the Giants are going to be in these upcoming 4 seasons and that's what we are up against amongst others

Should not be content with where the list is at right now , definitely needs improvement as other teams will improve and we need to pass a few and keep up with others

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

Jobe Watson for a season?

 

[Scorpus]

Jobe Watson for a season?

He's cooked

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Awesome!



Who should we target with the remaining $799,999.50?

.....i don't get out of bed for less than $10 .....and you want me to accept 50 cents .....cheapscate of a club

 

[SydCrow]

pick a GWS midfielder

 

[WaynesWorld19]

pick a GWS midfielder

Nick Haynes? ....192cm midfielder / defender / forward