Vic Predict the outcome of the 2018 Victorian State Election

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The libs havent got alot except attack labor over the CFA debate and crime rates and the alleged claims that both are out of control. Both issues wiill be heavily scrutinised by the murdoch press to try and get their mafia man into the top job. The fact that he is winning at this stage shows just how brain dead the electorate actually is. Andrews has been the most progressive premier for the past 30 years and that includes Kennett. Their is work going on all over the state and he isnt afraid to pass legislation which has carried intense debate for decades (euthanasia, 1st home buyers grants, rental property laws the CFA structure for eg). I fear that all this progression will stand for nothing this time next year because the electorate gets brainwashed like no other in this country and are lazy.
 
Nah. The Libs like dirty campaigning.

Alp just let that run a little while, so it looks like they are being dragged into a dirty fight.

Then just absolutely bury Matthew guy. There's plenty of fertilizer just lying around to do it with.

Unelectable
 

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You gotta hand it to michael o brien, coming out and bagging labor for communicating what their doing with the level crossing removal by using a few project members to get the message across which is perfectly reasonable imo saying its a gross waste of money and its a pattern. This coming from the man who along with napthine signed a dodgy deal under the table with the EWL that we are still paying the price for. They really are a deluded bunch of idiots.
 
From May onwards the Herald Sun's first edition (rural newsstands) will be daily headlines about the CFA and the second edition (suburban newsstands) will be all about Sudanese gangs. Just attack the weakest point over and over again.
Both issues arent even issues, just overblown media rubbish trying to find reasoning to turf Andrews out. Crime rates have gone down. The police came out and said that but the media dont want to write something that doesnt suit their own agenda. The problem with the CFA dispute is their hasnt been proper communication with what labor is trying to do and that has allowed the propaganda machine to spin their own message. The fault lies with andrews there because of that.
 
You gotta hand it to michael o brien, coming out and bagging labor for communicating what their doing with the level crossing removal by using a few project members to get the message across which is perfectly reasonable imo saying its a gross waste of money and its a pattern. This coming from the man who along with napthine signed a dodgy deal under the table with the EWL that we are still paying the price for. They really are a deluded bunch of idiots.
Do you think the Labor party are also a deluded bunch of idiots for signing their deal with Transurban for the WD?
 
From May onwards the Herald Sun's first edition (rural newsstands) will be daily headlines about the CFA and the second edition (suburban newsstands) will be all about Sudanese gangs. Just attack the weakest point over and over again.

What side of the ledger will The Age newspaper be backing in next year's State election; the Coalition, or Labor as opposed to the Herald Sun?


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Can't find a link, but Antony Green once wrote up a piece mapping the remarkably consistent trend of state electors swinging against whomever is in power federally.

Unless there's a calamitous policy failure between now and election day, that trend should continue. Labor to perhaps gain one or two seats, with little net change.
 
What side of the ledger will The Age newspaper be backing in next year's State election; the Coalition, or Labor as opposed to the Herald Sun?


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I would imagine Labor. Although the age did play a roll in actually breaking the cfa story and even in recent weeks the bullying scandals, additionally the taxpayer rorts of driving MPs dogs across the state and living allowances. So the paper hasn't been afraid to call things out on the left when they are there.

But yeah, it's editorial beliefs do align more with Labor.
 
Can't find a link, but Antony Green once wrote up a piece mapping the remarkably consistent trend of state electors swinging against whomever is in power federally.

Unless there's a calamitous policy failure between now and election day, that trend should continue. Labor to perhaps gain one or two seats, with little net change.
This is the thing with this election. I can't see it changing too much. There are large issues of entitlement issues, backroom deals and so forth, but for the casual observer they will be seeing new rail crossings being built, sporting facilities in Ballarat and Geelong, tech schools opening up, some tafe centres reopening, again 24 hour pharmacies, a new railway beginning construction, building the new western women's and children's hospital, fixing the vline carriages after shortcuts on the regional rail link wore out the wheels. The everyday things that people experience should at least keep many in the alp column.
 

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Jane Garrett looks finished. The Brunswick MP who chose to not recontest the seat (presumably because she thinks the Greens will win it) has now failed to get a safe seat for the Legislative Council.
 
The Greens have won the seat of Northcote from Labor.

If next year's state election is really tight, expect to see the Greens have a major say on who will govern Victoria over the next 4 years.


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From May onwards the Herald Sun's first edition (rural newsstands) will be daily headlines about the CFA and the second edition (suburban newsstands) will be all about Sudanese gangs. Just attack the weakest point over and over again.

The last CFA based campaign which failed to have any real impact on the last federal election result which saw basically every CFA based seat swing towards the ALP.

To answer the OP's question, in light of tonight's by-election and Victoria's habit of swinging against the government it looks like Andrews will have an uphill battle to get re-elected with both Brunswick and Richmond looking like possible Green gains and the Liberal Party would be absolutely mad not to contest the inner city seats because if they follow the trend of federal results then those inner city seats look like becoming Green v Liberal contests with the ALP reduced to third, we see this in the federal seat of Melbourne.
 
This is the thing with this election. I can't see it changing too much. There are large issues of entitlement issues, backroom deals and so forth, but for the casual observer they will be seeing new rail crossings being built, sporting facilities in Ballarat and Geelong, tech schools opening up, some tafe centres reopening, again 24 hour pharmacies, a new railway beginning construction, building the new western women's and children's hospital, fixing the vline carriages after shortcuts on the regional rail link wore out the wheels. The everyday things that people experience should at least keep many in the alp column.

I agree that those issues will be key to the ALP holding its regional seats, one advantage this ALP government has over the Bracks/Brumby and the Cain/Kirner governments is the lack of ALP marginal seats in the Eastern suburbs which means it can focus more on holding the rural and regional seats.
 
The last CFA based campaign which failed to have any real impact on the last federal election result which saw basically every CFA based seat swing towards the ALP.

To answer the OP's question, in light of tonight's by-election and Victoria's habit of swinging against the government it looks like Andrews will have an uphill battle to get re-elected with both Brunswick and Richmond looking like possible Green gains and the Liberal Party would be absolutely mad not to contest the inner city seats because if they follow the trend of federal results then those inner city seats look like becoming Green v Liberal contests with the ALP reduced to third, we see this in the federal seat of Melbourne.
I don't see the point in the Liberals contesting those inner city seats though. The Libs voters generally preference Labor over the greens and having twenty percent liberal primary vote will just transfer to labor and they will get on top. Why spend money on a seat you know you won't win, when instead you can withdraw and see Labor sink millions into seats where the greens are putting the pressure on? The Libs save money while making the seat more marginal and letting the other two fight it out.
 
I don't see the point in the Liberals contesting those inner city seats though. The Libs voters generally preference Labor over the greens and having twenty percent liberal primary vote will just transfer to labor and they will get on top. Why spend money on a seat you know you won't win, when instead you can withdraw and see Labor sink millions into seats where the greens are putting the pressure on? The Libs save money while making the seat more marginal and letting the other two fight it out.

Out of the four - Melbourne, Richmond, Brunswick & Northcote. Only Northcote is a write off for the Liberals, they have pockets of support in the other three with Melbourne being their strongest seat and the only one of the four where they win booths, no doubting if the Liberals didn't run then the bulk of their supporters would move towards the Greens but it isn't guaranteed as we saw when the ALP didn't run in the Higgins by-election which saw the Greens not only fail to challenge the Liberals but they went on to under performed in areas that they were expected to benefit from due to the lack of an ALP candidate.
 
I don't see the point in the Liberals contesting those inner city seats though. The Libs voters generally preference Labor over the greens and having twenty percent liberal primary vote will just transfer to labor and they will get on top. Why spend money on a seat you know you won't win, when instead you can withdraw and see Labor sink millions into seats where the greens are putting the pressure on? The Libs save money while making the seat more marginal and letting the other two fight it out.

Except thats being publicly sneaky instead of sneakily sneaky
 
Underpasses in congested road intersections is a policy. Congestion during building won’t be pretty, why not run skyrail down arterial?

Didn’t melbourne get rid of an overpass a few years back. Flinders st
 
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I genuinely am unsure if Guy was taking the piss or is serious with that video. The production value is lower than a high school music video, it does minimal to solve the problem, did he miss the weather part on saturday where these things flood...
 

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