Predict the top 8

[ChappyUK]

Top 8.

1. Hawthorn (Will be a very tight top 4 with a game and maybe percentage between them)
2. Geelong (Even if they drop 10% they're still top 2)
3. Fremantle (Have some very exciting players, a proper coach and think they have had enough injury luck go against them)
4. Carlton (Great midfield but drop away sharply.
5. West Coast (NicNat alone will get them over the line if he stays uninjured)
6. Collingwood (Just can't see them warming to playing under FIGJAM. Also have depth issues as hown this year.)
7. Richmond (They care exciting when Martin, Cotchin, Lids and Jroo put it together. They just need to not drop the easy ones and they'll make it)
8. Essendon (No different to last year)

Result. Cats to bury all demons by beating the Hawks to a flag and going B2B. Sweet!

 

[Varcoe2Chapman]

1. Geelong (will win first 10 and cruise from there)
2. Hawthorn (will beat geelong in rnd 19 for first time since 08 to make run to finals interesting)
3. Carlton (straight sets losing to essendon in semi) (top 3 all seperated by percentage)
4. Collingwood (will take adjusting to figjam)
5. Fremantle (new coach game plan will help)
6. Essendon (right people at club and right attitude)
7. Sydney (always thereabouts)
8. West Coast (Western derby as elimination final...would be pretty interesting)
For the record.
9. Richmond
10. St. Kilda
11. North
12. Brisbane
13. Gold Coast
14. Melbourne.
15. Adelaide
16. Port Adelaide
17. Bulldogs
18. GWS

 

[ChappyUK]

Yes we will struggle big time to beat Carlton right? That's why we have beaten them 8 times in a row! and what's the structural deficiencies you speak of? What Up forward? Franklin Roughead Hale Gunston Breust Rioli Osborne. That's the most potent forward line in the league! What is it our Rucks? We have 6 Ruckmans on our list Bailey Hale Lowden Grimley McCauley and Pattison. No deficiency there! Our Midfield of Hodge Mitchell Sewell Lewis Bugoyne, what is that too slow? Hmm... add Shiels Smith Savage Puopolo for some speed and now problem solved! Our only Concern is our Back line but that's about it. Midfield is equal with Collingwood as the best in the league and our Forward line is no.1

Think you've just named the worst ruck division in the league. You are deficient because they are all shit not because you don't have enough ruckmen.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

Carlton isn't super rediculous, North finishing 5th? Yehh...

Could not disagree more on Sydney at number 3.
Really don't know how you come to that conclusion.

You have to factor in the uneven draw this year, which basically has us playing good teams twice and mediocre teams (from last year) playing other mediocre teams twice. It's exactly why West Coast made the top four last year and why they'll probably drop off a bit this year - last year they had an incredibly easy draw, this year it's going to be tougher on them. North Melbourne plays GWS, GC and the Bulldogs twice, which will probably be six wins for them, right off the bat. Seriously, if they can't make at least make the finals with the draw they've got, they might as well wind it up.

Sydney is similar. They've got a very tough final five weeks (@Car, Col, @WB, Haw, @Gee), but I reckon they would well and truly have sewn up their finals position by then (as would some of their opponents), so some of those games could be like intraclub matches. With the draw they've got and the natural level of improvement in the side, they should at least be around 10-4/11-3 after fifteen rounds. Going by the 2011 positions, if they only beat the teams they finished ahead of and lose to the teams they finished behind, they will go 16-6 (and be 14-3, at one stage).

 

[WWSD]

Think you've just named the worst ruck division in the league. You are deficient because they are all shit not because you don't have enough ruckmen.

Max Bailey played 16 Games in 2011. He had a knee Reco in 07 08 09. Tell me any Geelong player who has done that or any other player? Bailey is actually a good ruckmen. He is only 25. Despite the fact he is now in his 7th year at the club go easy there champ. Hale is as an ok Ruckman. But not great. We have a young bloke at 207cm named Luke Lowden who I expect will be fighting with Hale as the number 2 Ruck spot in our team. As you may know in 07 and 08 our to ruckman were Taylor and Campbell. They won't the best but boy did they get the job done! IMO you don't really need a dominant ruckman to win the flag. Bailey and Hale are more then capable. Enough said.

 

[marshhhhh]

Yes we will struggle big time to beat Carlton right? That's why we have beaten them 8 times in a row! and what's the structural deficiencies you speak of? What Up forward? Franklin Roughead Hale Gunston Breust Rioli Osborne. That's the most potent forward line in the league! What is it our Rucks? We have 6 Ruckmans on our list Bailey Hale Lowden Grimley McCauley and Pattison. No deficiency there! Our Midfield of Hodge Mitchell Sewell Lewis Bugoyne, what is that too slow? Hmm... add Shiels Smith Savage Puopolo for some speed and now problem solved! Our only Concern is our Back line but that's about it. Midfield is equal with Collingwood as the best in the league and our Forward line is no.1

Er, okay.
#1 forward line in the league, maybe not.
Buddy, Roughy, Rioli, no worries there, 3 genuine guns.
Osborne, good consistent contributor - B grader.
Breust and Gunston? Yeh won't be getting too excited just yet there...

Ruck division is honestly just awful. 6 ruckmen doesn't mean good ruckmen.
I admit Bailey has come on well and should be pretty good.

Do rate the midfield very highly and a big fan of Puopolo and Savage, but no better than Geelong IMO.

Bartel, Selwood, Kelly, Chapman, with players like Varcoe and Christensen etc for speed.

I rate the hawks very highly, just maybe not as highly as yourself.

 

[marshhhhh]

You have to factor in the uneven draw this year, which basically has us playing good teams twice and mediocre teams (from last year) playing other mediocre teams twice. It's exactly why West Coast made the top four last year and why they'll probably drop off a bit this year - last year they had an incredibly easy draw, this year it's going to be tougher on them. North Melbourne plays GWS, GC and the Bulldogs twice, which will probably be six wins for them, right off the bat. Seriously, if they can't make at least make the finals with the draw they've got, they might as well wind it up.

Sydney is similar. They've got a very tough final five weeks (@Car, Col, @WB, Haw, @Gee), but I reckon they would well and truly have sewn up their finals position by then (as would some of their opponents), so some of those games could be like intraclub matches. With the draw they've got and the natural level of improvement in the side, they should at least be around 10-4/11-3 after fifteen rounds. Going by the 2011 positions, if they only beat the teams they finished ahead of and lose to the teams they finished behind, they will go 16-6 (and be 14-3, at one stage).

True, I didn't factor this in, but I still think 3rd would be very ambitious.
Highest for them I would think would be 6th.
And good luck to them, love the Swannies fighting qualities.

 

[Belisarius]

So hard to pick the bottom 3 clubs to make the 8.

Just hard to imagine the Cats not making the top 4 but also equally hard to believe we will not have a few more losses than last season. History says it is so hard to keep wining 17-18 matches in a season. But this team is special - but with rotations, injuries and some major retirements last season - who knows ?

So -

Collingwood
Cats
WC
Hawthorn
Carlton
Freo
Sydney
Dogs

 

[witsend]

Yes we will struggle big time to beat Carlton right? That's why we have beaten them 8 times in a row! and what's the structural deficiencies you speak of? What Up forward? Franklin Roughead Hale Gunston Breust Rioli Osborne. That's the most potent forward line in the league! What is it our Rucks? We have 6 Ruckmans on our list Bailey Hale Lowden Grimley McCauley and Pattison. No deficiency there! Our Midfield of Hodge Mitchell Sewell Lewis Bugoyne, what is that too slow? Hmm... add Shiels Smith Savage Puopolo for some speed and now problem solved! Our only Concern is our Back line but that's about it. Midfield is equal with Collingwood as the best in the league and our Forward line is no.1

Your rucks are shit no matter how many you name. You agree your back-line is weak.
You simply can't win a flag without an elite defence. Ask Geelong of the 80s-90s.
And as for your mid-field. We too can name a bunch of kids we hope will develop. The fact is that when last we met, our mid-field smashed yours so until proved otherwise I'll put yours on the 2nd rung.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

Max Bailey played 16 Games in 2011. He had a knee Reco in 07 08 09. Tell me any Geelong player who has done that or any other player? Bailey is actually a good ruckmen. He is only 25. Despite the fact he is now in his 7th year at the club go easy there champ. Hale is as an ok Ruckman. But not great. We have a young bloke at 207cm named Luke Lowden who I expect will be fighting with Hale as the number 2 Ruck spot in our team. As you may know in 07 and 08 our to ruckman were Taylor and Campbell. They won't the best but boy did they get the job done! IMO you don't really need a dominant ruckman to win the flag. Bailey and Hale are more then capable. Enough said.

How closely were you watching the qualifying final this year, out of interest? Bailey injured himself and Hale was a complete embarrassment. Since Ottens was the best player on the ground and West also did whatever he pleased while he was out there (i.e. if you're still looking for reasons why you lost, 'rucks' is the first point on the board), I'm glad that you're giving your ruck division the 'she'll be rights'.

And while Bailey's determination is certainly commendable, I wasn't aware that having multiple knee recos automatically made someone a good player.

 

[marshhhhh]

How closely were you watching the qualifying final this year, out of interest? Bailey injured himself and Hale was a complete embarrassment. Since Ottens was the best player on the ground and West also did whatever he pleased while he was out there (i.e. if you're still looking for reasons why you lost, 'rucks' is the first point on the board), I'm glad that you're giving your ruck division the 'she'll be rights'.

And while Bailey's determination is certainly commendable, I wasn't aware that having multiple knee recos automatically made someone a good player.

Would almost make Ox Schwarz the best forward of all time...

Anyway, let's not shut this fella down too hard, he's not a massive halfwit like alot of his fellow fans.

 

[muttweed]

Collingwood
Hawthorn
Sydney
Carlton
Fremantle
St Kilda
Geelong
NM

WCE
Essendon
Richmond
W Bulldogs
Adelaide
Brisbane
Gold Coast
Melbourne
Port Adelaide
GWS


Geelong will drop due to losing too many early games, playing catch-up all year, and not having the luxury to rest players as per 2011. But this does not count finals.

You expect the hopeless likes of St Kilda and Fremantle to pass us? What does the club have to do to prove to the pessimists filling the stands that WE ARE ACTUALLY a smart, reliable and experienced team?! Conspiracy, huh!

If three premierships doesn't help the case, God knows if 4 will.

No disrespect intended, but I'm afraid I don't agree with a lot of your post. We won't have the opportunity to rest players, YET we have plenty of quality players (that would walk right into any other team's 22) that are kept out of the side. Explain that.

We'll probably keep out forwards like Byrnes, rucks like Simpson/Vardy, midfielders like Hogan and defenders like Hunt and Wojo to keep the team going. Depth and replacements are NO PROBLEM.

 

[muttweed]

Hawthorn
Geelong
Collingwood
Carlton
West Coast
Brisbane
Sydney
Fremantle

Premiers: Geelong
Runners up: Hawthorn

 

[you pick one]

Hawthorn
Geelong
Collingwood
Carlton
West Coast
Brisbane
Sydney
Fremantle

Premiers: Geelong
Runners up: Hawthorn

If that game's close the undertakers will have a bumper October burying Cats fans

 

[RogersResults]

You have to factor in the uneven draw this year, which basically has us playing good teams twice and mediocre teams (from last year) playing other mediocre teams twice. It's exactly why West Coast made the top four last year and why they'll probably drop off a bit this year - last year they had an incredibly easy draw, this year it's going to be tougher on them. North Melbourne plays GWS, GC and the Bulldogs twice, which will probably be six wins for them, right off the bat. Seriously, if they can't make at least make the finals with the draw they've got, they might as well wind it up.

Sydney is similar. They've got a very tough final five weeks (@Car, Col, @WB, Haw, @Gee), but I reckon they would well and truly have sewn up their finals position by then (as would some of their opponents), so some of those games could be like intraclub matches. With the draw they've got and the natural level of improvement in the side, they should at least be around 10-4/11-3 after fifteen rounds. Going by the 2011 positions, if they only beat the teams they finished ahead of and lose to the teams they finished behind, they will go 16-6 (and be 14-3, at one stage).

2011 Finalists - number of Home and Away matches against the eventual finalists.

Carlton       11       
Collingwood   11       
Essendon      11   
Geelong       11             
St Kilda      10       
Sydney        10     
Hawthorn       8       
West Coast     8

2011 Finalists - number of Home and Away matches against the eventual bottom six.

Hawthorn     9       
West Coast   9       
Carlton      8       
Geelong      8       
Sydney       8 
Collingwood  7       
Essendon     7       
St Kilda     7

Hawthorn was also the only finalist to have 4 matches against the eventual bottom 2 (Port Adelaide and Gold Coast). Collingwood, Geelong and West Coast had 3, Carlton, Essendon, St Kilda and Sydney 2.

Was Hawthorn's draw also not as "incredibly easy" as West Coast's in 2011?

 

[witsend]

2011 Finalists - number of Home and Away matches against the eventual finalists.

Carlton       11       
Collingwood   11       
Essendon      11   
Geelong       11             
St Kilda      10       
Sydney        10     
Hawthorn       8       
West Coast     8

2011 Finalists - number of Home and Away matches against the eventual bottom six.

Hawthorn     9       
West Coast   9       
Carlton      8       
Geelong      8       
Sydney       8 
Collingwood  7       
Essendon     7       
St Kilda     7

Hawthorn was also the only finalist to have 4 matches against the eventual bottom 2 (Port Adelaide and Gold Coast). Collingwood, Geelong and West Coast had 3, Carlton, Essendon, St Kilda and Sydney 2.

Was Hawthorn's draw also not as "incredibly easy" as West Coast's in 2011?

There will no doubt be some teams this year who play GC, GWS and PA twice this year. That is 24 points and percentage boost, and a huge advantage over any team that were to play each team once.

 

[RogersResults]

There will no doubt be some teams this year who play GC, GWS and PA twice this year. That is 24 points and percentage boost, and a huge advantage over any team that were to play each team once.

Adelaide is the only team to have 6 matches against GC, GWS and PA.

Nth Melbourne has 5.

Of last years finalists only Essendon, Hawthorn, St Kilda and Sydney (4 each) have more than 3.

But then looking at the 2011 fixture, teams who had 2 matches against West Coast might have thought they had two 'in the bag'.

 

[you pick one]

Hawthorn... on the back of a favorable draw and only 3 trips interstate(excl Tassi)

West Coast...12 home games and 3 give mes interstate, Gws, gc, Port.

Geelong...Not finished with yet.

Carlton ...Fair draw travel a bit early, only head to the Gold Coast in the second half.

Collingwood...Big travel year for the pies,Eddie and Andrew must have had a falling out.

Sydney always honest.

Essendon on the improve.

St Kilda last year in the 8 for them for some time.(job well done Chappy)

 

[bobbycatsfanme]

Yes we will struggle big time to beat Carlton right? That's why we have beaten them 8 times in a row! and what's the structural deficiencies you speak of? What Up forward? Franklin Roughead Hale Gunston Breust Rioli Osborne. That's the most potent forward line in the league! What is it our Rucks? We have 6 Ruckmans on our list Bailey Hale Lowden Grimley McCauley and Pattison. No deficiency there! Our Midfield of Hodge Mitchell Sewell Lewis Bugoyne, what is that too slow? Hmm... add Shiels Smith Savage Puopolo for some speed and now problem solved! Our only Concern is our Back line but that's about it. Midfield is equal with Collingwood as the best in the league and our Forward line is no.1

buddy there is a genuine reason why Geelong supporters do not rate your team as highly as many others do.
What has Hawthorn achieved since winning the 2008 GF?

If your forward line is as potent as you mention, how come you never finish on top of the ladder (or even 2nd) with points for which basically gives a good indicator to how well a forward line goes throughout the entire season?

Your only concern is the backline and that's about it is it
Why did Collingwood, Geelong..even West Coast who nearly knocked you guys off in RD 4 (and likely would have done so if you played them later in the season) all have a stellar season?

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

Was Hawthorn's draw also not as "incredibly easy" as West Coast's in 2011?

Certainly. Not only that, but Hawthorn also played West Coast in Launceston (Geelong plays Freo and West Coast once - both at Subiaco - in 2012 for the umpteenth year in a row) and Carlton/St Kilda at the opposition's less-preferred venues.

Just didn't feel the need to include every team that had an easy draw in an effort to prove my point.

 

[marshhhhh]

Certainly. Not only that, but Hawthorn also played West Coast in Launceston (Geelong plays Freo and West Coast once - both at Subiaco - in 2012 for the umpteenth year in a row) and Carlton/St Kilda at the opposition's less-preferred venues.

Just didn't feel the need to include every team that had an easy draw in an effort to prove my point.

Not to mention they almost lost this game and had a full strength team at this stage of the season.

This year they get Sydney, North, Freo and Port in Tassie.

And they say we play mediocre teams at home.

 

[bobbycatsfanme]

they won't beat freo at Launceston, those two clubs have a hatred toward one another stemming from that 80+ turn around all in the space of a few weeks back in 2010.

They have now got a coach who employs defense as his highest priority and with the likes of McPharlin, Silvagni, Dawson, Grover & Ibbotson at his disposal, they have most of those Hawthorn forwards covered except for Franklin which no one can quite cover effectively.
They also have a superior ruck division and Sandilnads by all reports along with most of the Fremantle squad are having a grueling and excellent pre-season so you can't see Hale (dud), Bailey or Pattison beating Sandilands, Johnson or Clarke

That's what makes Fremantle a scary prospect in 2012, those rucks in Clarke & Johnson are two of the most athletic in the comp and no one beats Sandilands due to his bulk and size.
Their midfield will be fit having Barlow back and their forward line is pretty potent as well with the young boy Fyfe on the up as an elite player and pushing forward more often than he did in 2011.

Freo will beat the Hawks by 24 points down there

 

[pessimiser]

You expect the hopeless likes of St Kilda and Fremantle to pass us? What does the club have to do to prove to the pessimists filling the stands that WE ARE ACTUALLY a smart, reliable and experienced team?! Conspiracy, huh!

If three premierships doesn't help the case, God knows if 4 will.

No disrespect intended, but I'm afraid I don't agree with a lot of your post. We won't have the opportunity to rest players, YET we have plenty of quality players (that would walk right into any other team's 22) that are kept out of the side. Explain that.

We'll probably keep out forwards like Byrnes, rucks like Simpson/Vardy, midfielders like Hogan and defenders like Hunt and Wojo to keep the team going. Depth and replacements are NO PROBLEM.

what's it to you if i pick geelong to finish 14th? why be afraid you don't agreewith my stupid preseason prediction? means buggerall to anybody, you have faith in our team to make top 4, great, i'm not asking for your support, and to be frank, i def think freo will finish higher than us, and as i said, this is before finals.

 

[witsend]

they won't beat freo at Launceston, those two clubs have a hatred toward one another stemming from that 80+ turn around all in the space of a few weeks back in 2010.

They have now got a coach who employs defense as his highest priority and with the likes of McPharlin, Silvagni, Dawson, Grover & Ibbotson at his disposal, they have most of those Hawthorn forwards covered except for Franklin which no one can quite cover effectively.
They also have a superior ruck division and Sandilnads by all reports along with most of the Fremantle squad are having a grueling and excellent pre-season so you can't see Hale (dud), Bailey or Pattison beating Sandilands, Johnson or Clarke

That's what makes Fremantle a scary prospect in 2012, those rucks in Clarke & Johnson are two of the most athletic in the comp and no one beats Sandilands due to his bulk and size.
Their midfield will be fit having Barlow back and their forward line is pretty potent as well with the young boy Fyfe on the up as an elite player and pushing forward more often than he did in 2011.

Freo will beat the Hawks by 24 points down there

Agreed.
Freo are my smokey this year. Ross Lyon could be a masterstroke for such a talented team. Unluckily for Ross, his Pavlich/Sandilands window is quite narrow, but this year and next should be interesting.

 

[Vdubs]

they won't beat freo at Launceston, those two clubs have a hatred toward one another stemming from that 80+ turn around all in the space of a few weeks back in 2010.

They have now got a coach who employs defense as his highest priority and with the likes of McPharlin, Silvagni, Dawson, Grover & Ibbotson at his disposal, they have most of those Hawthorn forwards covered except for Franklin which no one can quite cover effectively.
They also have a superior ruck division and Sandilnads by all reports along with most of the Fremantle squad are having a grueling and excellent pre-season so you can't see Hale (dud), Bailey or Pattison beating Sandilands, Johnson or Clarke

That's what makes Fremantle a scary prospect in 2012, those rucks in Clarke & Johnson are two of the most athletic in the comp and no one beats Sandilands due to his bulk and size.
Their midfield will be fit having Barlow back and their forward line is pretty potent as well with the young boy Fyfe on the up as an elite player and pushing forward more often than he did in 2011.

Freo will beat the Hawks by 24 points down there

Are you picking Freo to win rd 1?? Sounds a real possibility from that description.