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Preview Preview/changes v. Collingwood @ MCG - Qualifying Final

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More interesting stat - no flag winner has lost 2 out of their last 4 home and away games in a decade.

Pies are good but big question mark on whether they peaked too early in the season. Their loss on KBday marked a moderate drop off in form that they’ve never really recovered from.

I’m not too fussed about their downhill ski over a sh1tfull Essendon last weekend. That’s not a true marker of where they’re at.

No Nick Daicos. We won’t get a better chance than Thursday night to beat them. And I believe we will.

Interesting analysis today from Kingy👇🏼 He rates us and how we’re travelling better than them.

Kingy rating us is the kiss of death 😂
 
More interesting stat - no flag winner has lost 2 out of their last 4 home and away games in a decade.

Pies are good but big question mark on whether they peaked too early in the season. Their loss on KBday marked a moderate drop off in form that they’ve never really recovered from.

I’m not too fussed about their downhill ski over a sh1tfull Essendon last weekend. That’s not a true marker of where they’re at.

No Nick Daicos. We won’t get a better chance than Thursday night to beat them. And I believe we will.

Interesting analysis today from Kingy👇🏼 He rates us and how we’re travelling better than them.

I agree with that getting Collingwood now is our best shot, but I don't really care about the highlighted stat. I always think of those things as pointless. It's the same with saying nobody has won it from 4th, it's a pointless stat. Usually there is a big gap between 1st and 4th but that's not the situation this year imo.
 
I agree with that getting Collingwood now is our best shot, but I don't really care about the highlighted stat. I always think of those things as pointless. It's the same with saying nobody has won it from 4th, it's a pointless stat. Usually there is a big gap between 1st and 4th but that's not the situation this year imo.

More or less agree. I was just pushing back against CrustyDemon’s “sides don’t win the flag from 4th” stat.
None of it means sh1t on Thursday night.

However, I do not think the Pies are playing as well as they did in the front half of the year. They tore out of the blocks early.

How many Melbourne Cup winners have begun the race 3 lengths in front then ended up first past the post? Not many I reckon.
 

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More or less agree. I was just pushing back against CrustyDemon’s “sides don’t win the flag from 4th” stat.
None of it means sh1t on Thursday night.

However, I do not think the Pies are playing as well as they did in the front half of the year. They tore out of the blocks early.

How many Melbourne Cup winners have begun the race 3 lengths in front then ended up first past the post? Not many I reckon.
Not sure the horse racing analogy is a good one. But there's definitely something in the stat that winning the flag from 4th is really difficult. Clearly we have a shot. Playing at home, Pies haven't been in top gear. Hopefully we can go against what the stats tell us.
 
More or less agree. I was just pushing back against CrustyDemon’s “sides don’t win the flag from 4th” stat.
None of it means sh1t on Thursday night.

However, I do not think the Pies are playing as well as they did in the front half of the year. They tore out of the blocks early.

How many Melbourne Cup winners have begun the race 3 lengths in front then ended up first past the post? Not many I reckon.
Yeah I don't think Collingwood are in their best form, I think injuries have played its part. Hard to get a gauge after the essendon game. Essendon suck but collingwood's pressure was elite. I know essendon were essentially witches hats but it could still be the easy kill they needed to regain some confidence a bit like our game against gold Coast in 2021.
 
Yeah I don't think Collingwood are in their best form, I think injuries have played its part. Hard to get a gauge after the essendon game. Essendon suck but collingwood's pressure was elite. I know essendon were essentially witches hats but it could still be the easy kill they needed to regain some confidence a bit like our game against gold Coast in 202021
We didn't gain confidence from an easy kill such as Gold Coast that year.

The win against Geelong down at Kardinia was the one that set us up for finals.

Our win against Sydney this year at the SCG who were coming off a 7 game winning streak has more significance then a club who was coming off a 120 point thrashing the week before and were mentally checked out against Collingwood.

Remember Brisbane at the Gabba last year when we absolutely smashed them as an easy kill?
 
We didn't gain confidence from an easy kill such as Gold Coast that year.

The win against Geelong down at Kardinia was the one that set us up for finals.

Our win against Sydney this year at the SCG who were coming off a 7 game winning streak has more significance then a club who was coming off a 120 point thrashing the week before and were mentally checked out against Collingwood.

Remember Brisbane at the Gabba last year when we absolutely smashed them as an easy kill?
Fair point the Geelong game certainly was a boost but I still think the gc game got the team going, before hand our form was average and the gold coast game was the beginning of the winning streak. It doesn't matter it's just opinion. You may very well be right Collingwood's easy kill could be their Brisbane game, but I just think Collingwood looked really switched on. I'll guess we will find out tomorrow.
 

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25 knot Northerly will make it fun kicking for goal.
 
Who said journalists had to be literate?
 

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Reckon all of us have had a crack at Stafford at some stage over the journey, but you'd think he deserves a bit of credit for how he's managed this year.
Perhaps, but I think it's just as much a weight of numbers thing. When you're number one in the AFL for inside 50s, ranking anywhere outside of the top third in the league for scoring would be pretty disastrous.
 
Perhaps, but I think it's just as much a weight of numbers thing. When you're number one in the AFL for inside 50s, ranking anywhere outside of the top third in the league for scoring would be pretty disastrous.

I more meant specifically with the forward line structure and lineups - been a massively challenging area personnel wise this year.

Agree on the inside 50 thing, but to me that's a more holistic thing between the coaching group as an overarching strategy.

I'm still a little unconvinced on Stafford tbh, but think he deserves credit this year given we've all given him a whack at other times.
 
I more meant specifically with the forward line structure and lineups - been a massively challenging area personnel wise this year.

Agree on the inside 50 thing, but to me that's a more holistic thing between the coaching group as an overarching strategy.

I'm still a little unconvinced on Stafford tbh, but think he deserves credit this year given we've all given him a whack at other times.

I do like our spread of goalkicking options, as much as we would all love genuine gun KPF. It's a big strength of ours actually.




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