Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines

[treefingers]

I could be wrong here - but do interstate sides in GFs get down to Melbourne a day or two earlier than they would for a normal game? If that's the case then they'd have slightly more time to recover from the travel, negating the home state advantage a little.

However it's probably more down to the general mindset players would go in with for a grand final that makes the squiggle unable to predict it as accurately - something that's just not quantifiable.

 

[Final Siren]

Hey Final Siren - this is a strange request but if it's not too time consuming, could you possibly post the current chart but with the offence and defence flipped to opposite axis?

As in defence on the X and offence on the y and all the squiggles, teams and trophies move proportionately?

I work in marketing and am keen to see what effect it will have presenting the same data even just that slight bit differently. If it's too much trouble obviously don't worry!

Love this thread and the squiggle - I check it every week!

Squiggle With Inverted Axes

 

[Hearts to hearts]

Squiggle With Inverted Axes

Fascinating how different it makes the positions "feel". Even though so many more of the actual cups are won toward the right, where Hawthorn is, this version makes it look as though Sydney and Freo lead the race.

 

[PattoMan99]

Fascinating how different it makes the positions "feel". Even though so many more of the actual cups are won toward the right, where Hawthorn is, this version makes it look as though Sydney and Freo lead the race.

Sydney is actually leading, not freo though. At this time it's Sydney 1 Hawthorn 2 in the race.

 

[cryptor]

Fascinating how different it makes the positions "feel". Even though so many more of the actual cups are won toward the right, where Hawthorn is, this version makes it look as though Sydney and Freo lead the race.

It's interesting that you feel that way when I feel the complete opposite. I reckon Hawthorns position looks clearly best surrounded by all those cups. Almost like a probability map.

For the record I think Hawthorn and Sydney feel equal in the standard squiggle.

 

[Final Siren]

Lately we've been comparing teams by assuming that offence is just as good as defence, and adding their OFFENCE and DEFENCE scores together. This is a fair way to gauge a team's general strength. But is it a good way to predict a premier? This year we have two teams with unusually strong defences in Sydney and Fremantle, so it's worth looking at how those kinds of teams tend to go.

Since 1994, right-side warriors have just two premierships: West Coast 1994 and Sydney 2005. And these flags sit quite a long way from the 18 others, looking a bit like outliers. One flag is from 20 years ago and the other was about a near thing as it's possible to be. So while clearly it's possible to win from there, it's also unusual.

To get the full picture, though, you want to look at the performance of all teams that have trod this territory and see where they wound up. Because if it's just West Coast and Sydney, that would be an awesome strike rate. And probably every team should be trying it. But if there are lots of failures, maybe it's not such a great place to be.

Here is a slightly zoomed-in squiggle chart showing where defence-heavy teams have wound up, charting every team to have spent at least two weeks with a DEFENCE of 75 or better since 1994:

That's:

• West Coast 1994: won flag by 80
• West Coast 1995: lost semi by 58
• Brisbane 1996: lost prelim by 43
• Sydney 2004: lost semi by 51
  
• Sydney 2005: won flag by 4
  
• Adelaide 2005: lost prelim by 15
  
• Adelaide 2006: lost prelim by 10
• Adelaide 2009: lost semi by 5
• St Kilda 2009: lost GF by 12
• St Kilda 2010: drew GF then lost GF replay by 56
• Collingwood 2011: lost GF by 38
• Fremantle 2013: lost GF by 15

These are all very good teams. They all progressed at least to a semi-final, and there are a few Grand Finallists, especially recently. But overall it looks like under-performance.

For sure, with a bit of luck there could be two or three more flags here. But the fact is there's not. So I'm a bit more cautious on Sydney and Fremantle than their raw numbers suggest. There are plenty of reasons why those teams can win the flag, but in squiggly terms, they need to break the mould.

 

[atdhe]

For sure, with a bit of luck there could be two or three more flags here. But the fact is there's not. So I'm a bit more cautious on Sydney and Fremantle than their raw numbers suggest. There are plenty of reasons why those teams can win the flag, but in squiggly terms, they need to break the mould.

What I'm taking out of this is that Hawthorn are the real outstanding favourites, and Geelong have a chance to Bradbury it.

 

[MC_9]

Lately we've been comparing teams by assuming that offence is just as good as defence, and adding their OFFENCE and DEFENCE scores together. This is a fair way to gauge a team's general strength. But is it a good way to predict a premier? This year we have two teams with unusually strong defences in Sydney and Fremantle, so it's worth looking at how those kinds of teams tend to go.

Since 1994, right-side warriors have just two premierships: West Coast 1994 and Sydney 2005. And these flags sit quite a long way from the 18 others, looking a bit like outliers. One flag is from 20 years ago and the other was about a near thing as it's possible to be. So while clearly it's possible to win from there, it's also unusual.

......

For sure, with a bit of luck there could be two or three more flags here. But the fact is there's not. So I'm a bit more cautious on Sydney and Fremantle than their raw numbers suggest. There are plenty of reasons why those teams can win the flag, but in squiggly terms, they need to break the mould.

Very interesting indeed.

Even though I am a Hawthorn supporter. I am often of the opinion that it is much harder to maintain defensive effort, as opposed to attacking teams kicking a score. All it takes is a 10 minute lapse from the defensive team to let a flurry of goals through, then the game is turned on its head.

 

[cryptor]

Lately we've been comparing teams by assuming that offence is just as good as defence, and adding their OFFENCE and DEFENCE scores together. This is a fair way to gauge a team's general strength. But is it a good way to predict a premier? This year we have two teams with unusually strong defences in Sydney and Fremantle, so it's worth looking at how those kinds of teams tend to go.

Since 1994, right-side warriors have just two premierships: West Coast 1994 and Sydney 2005. And these flags sit quite a long way from the 18 others, looking a bit like outliers. One flag is from 20 years ago and the other was about a near thing as it's possible to be. So while clearly it's possible to win from there, it's also unusual.

To get the full picture, though, you want to look at the performance of all teams that have trod this territory and see where they wound up. Because if it's just West Coast and Sydney, that would be an awesome strike rate. And probably every team should be trying it. But if there are lots of failures, maybe it's not such a great place to be.

Here is a slightly zoomed-in squiggle chart showing where defence-heavy teams have wound up, charting every team to have spent at least two weeks with a DEFENCE of 75 or better since 1994:

That's:

• West Coast 1994: won flag by 80
• West Coast 1995: lost semi by 58
• Brisbane 1996: lost prelim by 43
• Sydney 2004: lost semi by 51
  
• Sydney 2005: won flag by 4
  
• Adelaide 2005: lost prelim by 15
  
• Adelaide 2006: lost prelim by 10
• Adelaide 2009: lost semi by 5
• St Kilda 2009: lost GF by 12
• St Kilda 2010: drew GF then lost GF replay by 56
• Collingwood 2011: lost GF by 38
• Fremantle 2013: lost GF by 15

These are all very good teams. They all progressed at least to a semi-final, and there are a few Grand Finallists, especially recently. But overall it looks like under-performance.

For sure, with a bit of luck there could be two or three more flags here. But the fact is there's not. So I'm a bit more cautious on Sydney and Fremantle than their raw numbers suggest. There are plenty of reasons why those teams can win the flag, but in squiggly terms, they need to break the mould.

When it comes down to it there's only one way to win a game of footy and that's to score more than the opposition. It's good to be able to restrict the opposition from scoring so you don't have to score as much as you would in a shoot out but you do still need to score more in either case.

I think this is where all the criticism about Ross Lyon's game plans come from. Even if you can get it to work on Grand Final day the opposition isn't liable to give up easily as there is no next week to play for (unless it's 2010). The opposition will keep coming and will attack relentlessly and if you drop off on your structures and defensive pressure for just a couple minutes that team only need to kick a few goals to steal back the lead. Sydney 2005 is a perfect example where you could say they were lucky to hold on. Would only take one slip up (Leo Barry not taking that mark for example) for West Coast to have kicked another goal and won by 2.

 

[scotty13]

I dont know if this has already popped up in this thread Final Siren but have you squiggled out where the runner ups have finished in comparison to the premiers for each season? Are they usually close or quite a squiggle away?

 

[estibador]

When it comes down to it there's only one way to win a game of footy and that's to score more than the opposition. It's good to be able to restrict the opposition from scoring so you don't have to score as much as you would in a shoot out but you do still need to score more in either case.

When it comes down to it there's only one way to win a game of footy and that's to keep the opposition to less than you score. It's good to be able to kick a lot of goals so you don't have to restrict the opposition as much as you would in a low scoring game, but you do still need to keep them to a lower score in either case.

 

[Eddie Dingle]

When it comes down to it there's only one way to win a game of footy and that's to keep the opposition to less than you score. It's good to be able to kick a lot of goals so you don't have to restrict the opposition as much as you would in a low scoring game, but you do still need to keep them to a lower score in either case.

Hi Ross.

 

[cryptor]

When it comes down to it there's only one way to win a game of footy and that's to keep the opposition to less than you score. It's good to be able to kick a lot of goals so you don't have to restrict the opposition as much as you would in a low scoring game, but you do still need to keep them to a lower score in either case.

I see what you're saying but considering both teams start on the same score your team is required to be able to score more than the opposition to win the game. Playing a perfect defensive game that restricts them to no score still ultimately requires you to score more than them to win it.

 

[estibador]

Hi Ross.

Just making the point that in any game that involves offence vs defence (ie not something like darts where the first to a certain score wins) you can easily flip a statement like that around and it is still just as correct.

 

[estibador]

I see what you're saying but considering both teams start on the same score your team is required to be able to score more than the opposition to win the game. Playing a perfect defensive game that restricts them to no score still ultimately requires you to score more than them to win it.

Fair point I guess.

 

[Final Siren]

I dont know if this has already popped up in this thread Final Siren but have you squiggled out where the runner ups have finished in comparison to the premiers for each season? Are they usually close or quite a squiggle away?

There's this one from the OP... it's top-4 rather than top-2, and from last year so doesn't include the 2013 finalists, but you get the idea:

 

[MF]

For sure, with a bit of luck there could be two or three more flags here. But the fact is there's not. So I'm a bit more cautious on Sydney and Fremantle than their raw numbers suggest. There are plenty of reasons why those teams can win the flag, but in squiggly terms, they need to break the mould.

Hmmm. When media experts write us off I just laugh and shrug it off. When the squiggle casts doubts over my team I start to get worried.

 

[The Speaker]

I'd argue that the time is right for another defence flag, no? It's been a decade.

 

[Andrew Mc]

Since 1994, right-side warriors have just two premierships: West Coast 1994 and Sydney 2005. And these flags sit quite a long way from the 18 others, looking a bit like outliers. One flag is from 20 years ago and the other was about a near thing as it's possible to be. So while clearly it's possible to win from there, it's also unusual.

Out of interest and in the same vein, where was Sydney 2006 (as it was even closer)?

 

[Gavin Excell]

I'd argue that the time is right for another defence flag, no? It's been a decade.

defence flags suck

evidence shows that those who take the risk of attacking get rewarded

Sorry Freo fans

 

[Final Siren]

Out of interest and in the same vein, where was Sydney 2006 (as it was even closer)?

You can have a look on the interactive 2006 squiggle. Sydney didn't score so well defensively that year. But I was referring not just to the narrow GF win in 2005 but also the extraordinary sequence of events that got them there. Sydney lost their first final and then somehow conjured one of the most miraculous comebacks in football history to survive their semi against Geelong. They were behind at three quarter time against St Kilda in the prelim, controversially avoided losing Barry Hall to suspension despite all logic, then won the GF by 4 points. It's amazing, one of the stories that makes footy great, but boy, it almost didn't happen.

 

[Illinois Nazi]

I've always felt that great defense is the way to get you to the finals, but great attack is what usually wins them when you get there. Looks like Mr Squiggle agrees with me.

 

[Sydney Bloods]

I thought you'd finally got around to moving them back to the SCG for some reason? You guys seriously need to get onto that

not our call in finals the AFL controls finals and they want there money. be interesting to see what happens this year as ANZ is shaping up to RL dominated for the finals.

which means if we get home finals it's the SCG or *shudder* relocate our finals to the MCG using that shitty little clause about 10 finals over 5 years excuse.

 

[specq]

Hmmm. When media experts write us off I just laugh and shrug it off. When the squiggle casts doubts over my team I start to get worried.

Get the squiggle as a guest on Footy Classified and I might actually tune in.

 

[hawk3000]

All good and well, but this is still my favorite chart.