Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines

[Catfish Alley]

Why do we only have 7?

 

[Sydney Bloods]

All good and well, but this is still my favorite chart.

View attachment 70016

is it because its inaccurate?

 

[Crankyhawk]

not our call in finals the AFL controls finals and they want there money. be interesting to see what happens this year as ANZ is shaping up to RL dominated for the finals.

which means if we get home finals it's the SCG or *shudder* relocate our finals to the MCG using that shitty little clause about 10 finals over 5 years excuse.

I'm sure they axed that mcg rule. 50k stadium at scg is plenty for finals, etihad hosts finals ffs.

 

[Millky95]

I'm sure they axed that mcg rule. 50k stadium at scg is plenty for finals, etihad hosts finals ffs.

Etihad has the contract of x amount of finals or extra game next season (not sure on what x is though) and the MCG one is still in place however I believe it's quota has been met/is close to being met really early so they don't have to worry. But if it was the 9th year and only 6 had been there, if they had a prime chance to move us (or anyone for that matter) they would

 

[Final Siren]

Interactive squiggle seems to be having a bit of trouble with the split round due to a datasource bug, so may not update until Monday.

 

[SuperSub17]

All good and well, but this is still my favorite chart.

View attachment 70016

Is that list from 2007?

 

[catstorm]

Is that list from 2007?

It's Funny because it is the one from 07 with every other team except it has Hawthorn up to date, go figure

 

[Soul_Pie]

Is that list from 2007?

We're at the cutting edge right here. Squiggle ain't got nothing on that chart.

 

[The Swans Blog]

Lately we've been comparing teams by assuming that offence is just as good as defence, and adding their OFFENCE and DEFENCE scores together. This is a fair way to gauge a team's general strength. But is it a good way to predict a premier? This year we have two teams with unusually strong defences in Sydney and Fremantle, so it's worth looking at how those kinds of teams tend to go.

Since 1994, right-side warriors have just two premierships: West Coast 1994 and Sydney 2005. And these flags sit quite a long way from the 18 others, looking a bit like outliers. One flag is from 20 years ago and the other was about a near thing as it's possible to be. So while clearly it's possible to win from there, it's also unusual.

To get the full picture, though, you want to look at the performance of all teams that have trod this territory and see where they wound up. Because if it's just West Coast and Sydney, that would be an awesome strike rate. And probably every team should be trying it. But if there are lots of failures, maybe it's not such a great place to be.

Here is a slightly zoomed-in squiggle chart showing where defence-heavy teams have wound up, charting every team to have spent at least two weeks with a DEFENCE of 75 or better since 1994:

That's:

• West Coast 1994: won flag by 80
• West Coast 1995: lost semi by 58
• Brisbane 1996: lost prelim by 43
• Sydney 2004: lost semi by 51
  
• Sydney 2005: won flag by 4
  
• Adelaide 2005: lost prelim by 15
  
• Adelaide 2006: lost prelim by 10
• Adelaide 2009: lost semi by 5
• St Kilda 2009: lost GF by 12
• St Kilda 2010: drew GF then lost GF replay by 56
• Collingwood 2011: lost GF by 38
• Fremantle 2013: lost GF by 15

These are all very good teams. They all progressed at least to a semi-final, and there are a few Grand Finallists, especially recently. But overall it looks like under-performance.

For sure, with a bit of luck there could be two or three more flags here. But the fact is there's not. So I'm a bit more cautious on Sydney and Fremantle than their raw numbers suggest. There are plenty of reasons why those teams can win the flag, but in squiggly terms, they need to break the mould.

I would expect the Swans to climb vertically and be in a similar position to Collingwood by the times the finals come in.

 

[The Swans Blog]

You can have a look on the interactive 2006 squiggle. Sydney didn't score so well defensively that year. But I was referring not just to the narrow GF win in 2005 but also the extraordinary sequence of events that got them there. Sydney lost their first final and then somehow conjured one of the most miraculous comebacks in football history to survive their semi against Geelong. They were behind at three quarter time against St Kilda in the prelim, controversially avoided losing Barry Hall to suspension despite all logic, then won the GF by 4 points. It's amazing, one of the stories that makes footy great, but boy, it almost didn't happen.

In 2005 the Swans were defensive, but no where near as defensive as this year. Another thing that's interesting is that the Eagles weren't even the best offensive team in 2005, nor were they really any good at defending. According to the Squiggles, they had the 5th best offence and 5th best defence. Compare to the Swans who were the 2nd best defence but the 12th best offence. Looking at those numbers, it really should have been a St Kilda vs Eagles GF with the Saints breaking their drought. That was the one that got away.

In 2006 the Eagles were 1st & 3rd for offence/defence whilst the Swans were 7th & 1st, a much more even contest. And it seemed at half-time that it was going to be a blow out, but an awesome 2nd half comeback almost snatched the win. Interestingly, the Dockers & Eagles were the two best offensive teams that year.

In 2012 the Hawks were 1st & 4th for offence/defence whilst the Swans were 6th & 1st. It played out that way in the GF as well with the Hawks making the early running, but the shut down game of the Swans locking them down and they threatened to blow the game wide open (that Kennedy poster...). Plenty of ebbs & flows and a fantastic GF to boot.

In 2013 the Hawks were 1st & 5th for offence/defence whilst the Dockers were 10th & 1st. It definitely played out that way in the GF.

I think the Swans have shown that if you have a strong defence and some offensive capability, then you have an excellent chance of winning the GF. Although 2005 is an aberration for all accounts, because no matter how you play out those finals series, St Kilda should have won it that year.

Tonight, it's 1st & 6th vs 3rd & 1st. Hawthorn have about 10 points of offence above the Swans, but trail them by about 16 points in defence.
Squiggle I think had it as 85 vs 80 to the Hawks with the home ground advantage in play. Will be an interesting game no doubt.

 

[hawk3000]

My

Is that list from 2007?

My apologies . . . . I just copied that chart from Wiki and changed Hawks 10 to 11 not even looking at other teams assuming it was last updated sometime in 2013. No disrespect meant to winners between 2008 and 2012.

 

[hawk3000]

is it because its inaccurate?

My apologies . . . . I just copied that chart from Wiki and changed Hawks 10 to 11 not even looking at other teams assuming it was last updated sometime in 2013. No disrespect meant to winners between 2008 and 2012.

 

[KillaKanga]

My apologies . . . . I just copied that chart from Wiki and changed Hawks 10 to 11 not even looking at other teams assuming it was last updated sometime in 2013. No disrespect meant to winners between 2008 and 2012.

Did this guy really get banned for that inaccurate chart?

I hear whispers that the Squiggle made it happen because the mistake was on His thread??

 

[Final Siren]

Round 18 (Week 2), 2014

Interactive squiggle

A poor tipping round for the squiggle, but you know what that means! Movement!

Brisbane's upset win means all four bottom teams have taken a firm step towards the pack in Round 18. The Suns, who not long ago looked to be making consistent progress into the middle tier of teams, are suddenly not so far away from the bottom again. The Suns' squiggle is quite similar to Port Adelaide's: early progress especially in attack, but losing about half of it over the last month or so.

The Tigers got a big rain-assisted slide to the right, moving ahead of Collingwood as the Pies' slide continued.

The Hawks-Swans game was about the result the squiggle expected, so no major moves there. But with Freo's big loss in Round 18 Week 1, there's a clearer gap between the top 2 and the rest.

 

[clogged]

Showdown final predicted with Adelaide the victor!

 

[Jay-Z]

Amazing that North and Geelong occupy the exact same spot on the chart - should be an interesting game this week

 

[bomberclifford]

Showdown final predicted with Adelaide the victor!

I now hate the Squiggle.

 

[KillaKanga]

Amazing that North and Geelong occupy the exact same spot on the chart - should be an interesting game this week

Unfortunately squiggle is tipping North. Fortunately I've put $666 on Geelong to win. Win/win (unless North win obviously )

 

[MF]

Does the squiggle consider the MCG to be a neutral venue for the predicted Hawthorn - Sydney Grand Final?

 

[go_the_dockers]

Does the squiggle consider the MCG to be a neutral venue for the predicted Hawthorn - Sydney Grand Final?

No, the squiggle favours the Victorian team. Only if the game is between two non vic teams is it considered neutral.

 

[Roobs321]

Salivating at that finals series.

 

[Dirty Bird]

Question - On the ladder predictor, it gives Adelaide the L in Rd 23, but doesn't give St Kilda the W. Both get a L.

What's up with that?

 

[Final Siren]

Question - On the ladder predictor, it gives Adelaide the L in Rd 23, but doesn't give St Kilda the W. Both get a L.

What's up with that?

It's explained in the "How Prediction Works" text:

This is a probabilistic ladder. That means instead of tipping individual games and tallying up the tips, it calculates a win probability for each team in each game. For example, if the squiggle thinks that Hawthorn is 68% likely to beat Collingwood in Round 23, it will award 0.68 wins to the Hawks and 0.32 to the Pies, increasing both team's tally of "probable wins."

This is because if a team plays 10 games with 60% likelihood of winning each game, we should predict them to win a total of 6/10. Not, as we would calculate if we tipped each game individually and tallied the results, all 10. We know that upsets will happen; we just don't know when. The probabilitistic ladder accounts for the likelihood that teams will sometimes unexpectedly win or lose, even though it doesn't know when that will be.

This can look like a bug in the predictor, when a team is predicted to win a match but doesn't seem to be rewarded for it on the ladder. For example, a team might have "15 (14.7)" wins, which means it's 14.7 wins on the balance of probabilities, rounded to 15 (so that teams can be secondarily ranked by their percentage). And then that team is tipped to win the following week, but remains on 15 wins; perhaps "15 (15.3)". That means its tally of probable wins hasn't risen by enough to be rounded to a higher number. Essentially the predictor is saying it's still most likely that the team will be on 15 wins by this point, after accounting for the likelihood that some tips will be wrong.

The squiggle thinks Adelaide is all but certain to beat St. Kilda in Round 23, and so awards the Crows 0.97 wins, which takes their tally of "probable wins" from 11.51 to 12.48. But both of those numbers round to 12.

In raw tipping terms, Adelaide is tipped to win 4 games from here (vs West Coast, Brisbane, Richmond, and St. Kilda) and lose 1 (to North Melbourne). This would put them on 13 wins for the season. But after considering the likelihood of upsets, the squiggle thinks it's ever-so-slightly more likely that Adelaide will go 3-2 rather than 4-1.

It won't take much to change this; if the Crows beat West Coast this week (as tipped), they will almost certainly firm to 13 probable wins, as they eliminate the possibility of dropping that game.

 

[KillaKanga]

Mr Squiggle wants to know why this thread is on page 2

 

[Seppo]

C'mon Squiggle... work your magic tonight please:

Fremantle 104 - 62 Carlton