Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines

[Final Siren]

Didn't move as much as I expected they would given Geelong's spot relative to the score line. Their movement tonight isn't much more than Hawthorn's following their win over St Kilda, which despite being 35 points greater was against a side placed much further to the bottom left.

The Hawks got a lot of horizontal movement for keeping St Kilda to just 30 points. Geelong scored 38 last night, but away interstate, where they're considered to have a 6-point penalty to their scoring. So their nominal score is 44 points. Which is still very low, especially for a good team, but the way the squiggle looks at it, Geelong's 44 is almost 50% better than St. Kilda's 30.

Now if the Swans had done that at Kardinia Park, they really would have exploded.

 

[Hawkk]

The Hawks got a lot of horizontal movement for keeping St Kilda to just 30 points. Geelong scored 38 last night, but away interstate, where they're considered to have a 6-point penalty to their scoring. So their nominal score is 44 points. Which is still very low, especially for a good team, but the way the squiggle looks at it, Geelong's 44 is almost 50% better than St. Kilda's 30.

Now if the Swans had done that at Kardinia Park, they really would have exploded.

Imagine how nuts the squiggle would have gone if the Cats and Swans had somewhat equal preparation in the lead up to the game...

For example one club playing 3 games in 12 games in Perth, Melbourne and Sydney vs. the other coming off the bye...

I guess we've got the Power Rankings for that

 

[Andre]

Steady on, I'm not made of squiggles.

Doh! And I have another squiggle idea. The 2014 squiggle's weakness at this stage is with 10 games it's prone to some big swings. The normal squiggle though may weight 2013 too strongly. What's the possibility of a 22 round sliding squiggle? Ie. it looks back at the previous 22 rounds, across 2014 and 2013. So after round 10 it'd captured 10 rounds of 2014 and the last 12 rounds of 2013. So as 2014 continues it'd look more and more like the 2014 only squiggle, but in the interim it'd capture some 2013 form to even out the big fluctuations.

 

[Eshay187]

Imagine how nuts the squiggle would have gone if the Cats and Swans had somewhat equal preparation in the lead up to the game...

For example one club playing 3 games in 12 games in Perth, Melbourne and Sydney vs. the other coming off the bye...

I guess we've got the Power Rankings for that

Wait, last year the bye was a bad thing with 70% of teams losing after it. Apparently now it's a good thing?

Swans beat your mob and freo off a 3 day break.

Relax.

 

[Hawkk]

Wait, last year the bye was a bad thing with 70% of teams losing after it. Apparently now it's a good thing?

Swans beat your mob and freo off a 3 day break.

Relax.

Say what?

Im not sure any club has had the pleasure of playing 2 sides off back to back to back 6 day breaks in a season, ever. The fact that you played 2 top 4 aspirants at home with this advantage is just rosey

 

[Eshay187]

Say what?

Im not sure any club has had the pleasure of playing 2 sides off back to back to back 6 day breaks in a season, ever. The fact that you played 2 top 4 aspirants at home with this advantage is just rosey

It was only Geelong who we played like that, and tell me again, is coming off the bye an advantage or a disadvantage?

 

[TheWhiteRhino]

Imagine how nuts the squiggle would have gone if the Cats and Swans had somewhat equal preparation in the lead up to the game...

For example one club playing 3 games in 12 games in Perth, Melbourne and Sydney vs. the other coming off the bye...

I guess we've got the Power Rankings for that

Imagine if the squiggly line took into account the fact that the Swans have to travel interstate every second week and the fact that Geelong had their own bye 3 weeks ago?

What a sad sad person you are.

 

[Final Siren]

I just realised I need to add a squiggle ladder predictor!

 

[THE D]

I just realised I need to add a squiggle ladder predictor!

Yes Please!

This thread delivers mate. Loving it

 

[Royce Hafey]

Geelong now lining up with North.... wow

Those Scott brothers!

 

[Gavin Excell]

I rate the Squiggle.

It confirms Geelong is not a flag contender

 

[Final Siren]

Beta version of a ladder predictor is now in testing on the interactive squiggle! (Little "Predictor" link at the top.) The fun part is watching it change after each match.

 

[Seppo]

Beta version of a ladder predictor is now in testing on the interactive squiggle! (Little "Predictor" link at the top.) The fun part is watching it change after each match.

Awesome addition.
It would be great for the season to finish that tight. I do think Freo will snag that extra win and finish top 4 though.

 

[inbetween]

Beta version of a ladder predictor is now in testing on the interactive squiggle! (Little "Predictor" link at the top.) The fun part is watching it change after each match.

Looks great. Though I do think it may need work (I understand its in beta) as i find it hard to believe that 7 teams finish with 16 or more wins (and 6 teams with 17+ wins).
Stranger things have happened though.

 

[Billy ray]

Is it possible to see how the squiggles pan out with the results used to predict the year end ladder and finals?

 

[Final Siren]

Looks great. Though I do think it may need work (I understand its in beta) as i find it hard to believe that 7 teams finish with 16 or more wins (and 6 teams with 17+ wins).
Stranger things have happened though.

Yeah, consider this a fun version for now.

The major defect right now is that it simply tips every game individually and compiles the results. But this is not the right way to do it. If we have two teams playing each other 10 times, and Team A is expected to beat Team B 60% of the time, we should predict 6 wins to Team A and 4 wins to Team B. Not, as this predictor currently does, tip Team A to beat Team B every time, for 10 wins.

 

[Seppo]

Is it possible to see how the squiggles pan out with the results used to predict the year end ladder and finals?

If I'm correct in my logic, everyone won't move from their current position on the squiggle. That's the way it predicts.

 

[Simon_Nesbit]

There's only one more squiggle I'd like to see - the 34-game squiggle. Including each teams' last home, and last away meetup with every opposition.

Happy with the predictor - you don't happen to have the actual game-by-game displayed?

 

[Angus Young]

Why am I reading this thread...

 

[Port Of Gold]

Why am I reading this thread...

Chaos and squiggles
Stimulate the connection
Of random ideas

Gives us mortals a
Quantitative look at the
Chaos of football.

 

[Billy ray]

Why am I reading this thread...

This is sports science. Not dank style science. Numbers... They will blow you mind man.....

 

[Wandering Hawk]

Final Siren - I don't hugely want a predictor with randomness generated, because it detracts from the data analysis.

Unless of course for fun you used a stochastic model (?jump diffusions) to model the chance of deviating enough from the expected margin to reverse the result. Wild guessing is more respectable if it involves Calculus.

The trouble is the path dependency inherent in your model.

You could then award percentages of wins to create likely ladder outcomes.

Stochastic Integration plus Ito's Lemma?
Black-Scholes or Ross-Cox-Rubinstein or something else?
Bring in the greeks. What is the delta and gamma of a call on the hawks?

 

[The Speaker]

Hawks' squiggle may be heading down today...

 

[The Swans Blog]

Final Siren if GWS can win today, what affect does it have on mr squiggles prediction?

 

[Portmanteau]

Chaos and squiggles
Stimulate the connection
Of random ideas

Gives us mortals a
Quantitative look at the
Chaos of football.

You are stealing Byrons Firen thunder. Or are you he?