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Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines

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Sydney will be advantaged as they always are if they are expected to make the grand final.
 
Round 8, 2015

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Animated!

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Teams have clumped into three bands: good teams in Fremantle, Hawthorn, Sydney, and West Coast; average teams in Richmond, Geelong, Adelaide, Port Adelaide, North Melbourne, Collingwood, Essendon, and GWS; and bad teams in Melbourne, Brisbane, Gold Coast, St Kilda, and Carlton. The Bulldogs are the only exception, sitting midway between average and bad.

In terms of the season so far, our big improvers are West Coast, GWS, the Western Bulldogs, Fremantle, and Collingwood (rated poorly pre-season due to an injury-stricken end to 2014). Melbourne and Sydney wouldn't be unhappy with their progression, while Carlton, Port Adelaide, and Gold Coast would be. No-one else has travelled very far from where they started.

A good week for Richmond, who jumped back into finals contention after one of the squiggle's favourite kinds of games: the kind where you keep an interstate opponent to a low score at their home. Better than that, nearby teams North Melbourne and Adelaide had bad weeks, allowing the Tigers to leapfrog them. And best of all, they caused Carlton to drop from 4 wins to 3 in the ladder predictor, because they meet again in Round 15. For a moment there I thought the Blues were going to climb off the bottom of the ladder. But the Tigers pulled through.

Also a good week for GWS, who comfortably dispatched Adelaide. The Giants are still only 12th in terms of raw form, but predicted to finish 5th given their remaining fixture! This shows two things: firstly, how close that middle clump of teams is, and secondly, how gentle the Giants' fixture is from here, with double-up games against St Kilda, Gold Coast, Carlton, and Melbourne, along with their derby against the Swans.

And an excellent week for Fremantle and Sydney, partly because of strong performances, and partly because it was...

A bad week for Hawthorn. The squiggle doesn't usually care very much about close losses in games where it expected close victories. And the Hawks could easily have stolen this one. But the fact that they didn't, and now sit two wins behind Sydney, has enormous consequences for who finishes in the top two, and therefore gets the easiest run into the Grand Final.

A bad loss for the Bulldogs, too, who fall behind the middle pack. This week vs the Giants should be revealing.

Ladder predictor says:
Kstkwm1.png

Interactive squiggle & FAQ & so on
 
Last edited:

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Round 8, 2015

k1QZdGf.jpg

Animated!

1xa35mP.gif

Teams clumped into three bands: good teams in Fremantle, Hawthorn, Sydney, and West Coast; average teams in Richmond, Geelong, Adelaide, Port Adelaide, North Melbourne, Collingwood, Essendon, and GWS; and bad teams in Melbourne, Brisbane, Gold Coast, St Kilda, and Carlton. The Bulldogs are the only exception, sitting midway between average and bad.

In terms of the season so far, our big improvers are West Coast, GWS, the Western Bulldogs, Fremantle, and Collingwood (rated poorly pre-season due to an injury-stricken end to 2014). Melbourne and Sydney wouldn't be unhappy with their progression, while Carlton, Port Adelaide, and Gold Coast would be. No-one else has travelled very far from where they started.

A good week for Richmond, who jumped back into finals contention after one of the squiggle's favourite kinds of games: the kind where you keep an interstate opponent to a low score at their home. Better than that, nearby teams North Melbourne and Adelaide had bad weeks, allowing the Tigers to leapfrog them. And best of all, they caused Carlton to drop from 4 wins to 3 in the ladder predictor, because they meet again in Round 15. For a moment there I thought the Blues were going to climb off the bottom of the ladder. But the Tigers pulled through.

Also a good week for GWS, who comfortably dispatched Adelaide. The Giants are still only 12th in terms of raw form, but predicted to finish 5th given their remaining fixture! This shows two things: firstly, how close that middle clump of teams is, and secondly, how gentle the Giants' fixture is from here, with double-up games against St Kilda, Gold Coast, Carlton, and Melbourne, along with their derby against the Swans.

And an excellent week for Fremantle and Sydney, partly because of strong performances, and partly because it was...

A bad week for Hawthorn. The squiggle doesn't usually care very much about close losses in games where it expected close victories. And the Hawks could easily have stolen this one. But the fact that they didn't, and now sit two wins behind Sydney, has enormous consequences for who finishes in the top two, and therefore gets the easiest run into the Grand Final.

A bad loss for the Bulldogs, too, who fall behind the middle pack. This week vs the Giants should be revealing.

Ladder predictor says:
Kstkwm1.png

Interactive squiggle & FAQ & so on
That projected Top 8 could potentially see Hawthorn in a worst-case path to arrive at the Grand Final, playing both QF and PF at Subi and the Giants at Spotless in a SF if they finish fourth and lose their qualifier against Freo. Win a Flag with that path through finals and you'll well and truly have earned it.
 
That projected Top 8 could potentially see Hawthorn in a worst-case path to arrive at the Grand Final, playing both QF and PF at Subi and the Giants at Spotless in a SF if they finish fourth and lose their qualifier against Freo. Win a Flag with that path through finals and you'll well and truly have earned it.

Not quite. We'd get the home semi against GWS, and so at the G
 
That prediction has a substantial break between fifth and sixth and a smaller one between fourth and fifth.

Precious few top four clashes in the last six runds means clubs could be preparing for finals a few weeks out. Fans too can make travel plans in good time. Fans can ge t equal access to seats if they are prepared to travel
 

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But the top 4 may well be set after round 20, when freo play west coast, geel play haw and syd play coll

Potentially no real challenge to any of the currently projeted top four after that.

Three rounds to prepare for the finals predicted almost exactly
 

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