Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines

[GreyCrow]

 

[Hobbes]

How would a squiggle even begin?

My assumption would be every team starts at 50 attack and defence. Games between Vic sides to be predicted as a draw and inter-state games would be predicted to go in favour of the home team by 2 goals?

Well. Final Siren has managed to incorporate teams which had no history in previous squiggles. I don't know if the default starting position is 50-50 (that's a pretty low rating in general) but I'm quite sure that you have the gist of it right.

 

[AlibiMonday]

How would a squiggle even begin?

It's an existential question that's most perplexing.

Big Bang! or for the creationists...in the beginning God created 8 teams...

 

[Golumless]

They haven't had a stinker of a game all year, the Giants. Obviously they pissed the Melbourne game against the wall and in such an even season that could prove very costly. In their other three losses they have been within a goal or two late in each game.

Their game against us should of been that stinker.

 

[baldandbroke]

I ran the Squiggle "Regular Season Form" Ladder through some spreadsheets I have (posted on another thread) - has some interesting Squiggle related discussions in it so thought it might be worth adding in here



That run home of North looks absolutely brutal. Away average ranking of 5.4 !! They are the only team in the 8 that have anything like that. Sydney and Hawks have averages below their place on the ladder. Geelong's easy overall fixture might puff them up a bit - and jeez, those GWS Giants are gonna run home.



Again, North stand out. 7 remaining games against the top 8, 5 against the top 4, 3 of those 5 away !!

 

[Final Siren]

I ran the Squiggle "Regular Season Form" Ladder through some spreadsheets I have (posted on another thread) - has some interesting Squiggle related discussions in it so thought it might be worth adding in here

View attachment 257054

That run home of North looks absolutely brutal. Away average ranking of 5.4 !! They are the only team in the 8 that have anything like that. Sydney and Hawks have averages below their place on the ladder. Geelong's easy overall fixture might puff them up a bit - and jeez, those GWS Giants are gonna run home.

View attachment 257055

Again, North stand out. 7 remaining games against the top 8, 5 against the top 4, 3 of those 5 away !!

That's cool, thanks. You could use squiggle scores rather than squiggle rank, to capture how, for example, there's currently no real difference between 6th and 8th, but there's a huge one between 8th and 10th. Ratio data is better than ordinal.

 

[Final Siren]

Final Siren
Will you be doing a women's squiggle?

I would like to... a live squiggle, at least, where I just set it up at the start of the season and then don't have to do anything. Just need a datasource, i.e. somewhere to suck results from.

 

[saintsman24]

I would like to... a live squiggle, at least, where I just set it up at the start of the season and then don't have to do anything. Just need a datasource, i.e. somewhere to suck results from.

How do you set it up so you don't have to touch it again??

 

[Final Siren]

How do you set it up so you don't have to touch it again??

The live squiggle runs by itself: it constantly downloads latest scores, updates chart positions, regenerates tips, etc. It's a little Perl program that runs on my server. That way I can be out with the kids or playing Age of Empires II and you can still get the up-to-the-second squiggle validation you crave when your team is doing well.

The only thing I have to do manually is the weekly post here, where I paste data into a spreadsheet for the nicer-looking chart and upload some screenshots.

 

[saintsman24]

The live squiggle runs by itself: it constantly downloads latest scores, updates chart positions, regenerates tips, etc. It's a little Perl program that runs on my server. That way I can be out with the kids or playing Age of Empires II and you can still get the up-to-the-second squiggle validation you crave when your team is doing well.

The only thing I have to do manually is the weekly post here, where I paste data into a spreadsheet for the nicer-looking chart and upload some screenshots.

I need to learn how to use/make one of those programs. Thanks mate.
Hail the squiggle!

 

[SJ]

Final Siren For some reason the Squiggle is not loading for me when I pick different years.

 

[cat in sydney]

... and Round 13 tips aren't up yet?

 

[freo_leo29]

... and Round 13 tips aren't up yet?

You can get round 13 tips by going into the forecast and clicking the + on home and away

 

[Iron]

I don't think it was a downer to best honest, you got outplayed in that game.

We were well below our best. Not even a point worth debating. You guys came switched on and we couldn't keep up all night.

 

[manboob]

The live squiggle runs by itself: it constantly downloads latest scores, updates chart positions, regenerates tips, etc. It's a little Perl program that runs on my server. That way I can be out with the kids or playing Age of Empires II and you can still get the up-to-the-second squiggle validation you crave when your team is doing well.

The only thing I have to do manually is the weekly post here, where I paste data into a spreadsheet for the nicer-looking chart and upload some screenshots.

It's sentient

 

[ok.crows]

I don't think it was a downer to best honest, you got outplayed in that game.

We were well below our best. Not even a point worth debating. You guys came switched on and we couldn't keep up all night.

I note a certain arrogance from some Geelong supporters ... according to them if Geelong beat Adelaide it must be because Geelong are a superteam, it couldn't possibly be because Adelaide had a bad game. On the other hand they would be the first people to claim that Geelong losing to Collingwood and Carlton was obviously just due to a couple of bad games from Geelong.

 

[Final Siren]

... and Round 13 tips aren't up yet?

Ah, thanks. It rolls over on Tuesday 9am but due to the public holiday, afltables.com didn't have full results out yet, so it thought it was the previous week.

 

[baldandbroke]

That's cool, thanks. You could use squiggle scores rather than squiggle rank, to capture how, for example, there's currently no real difference between 6th and 8th, but there's a huge one between 8th and 10th. Ratio data is better than ordinal.

Good idea ...

 

[WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot]

I note a certain arrogance from some Geelong supporters ... according to them if Geelong beat Adelaide it must be because Geelong are a superteam, it couldn't possibly be because Adelaide had a bad game. On the other hand they would be the first people to claim that Geelong losing to Collingwood and Carlton was obviously just due to a couple of bad games from Geelong.

I believe that is the "games against non-top 8 teams don't count, because we won't play those teams in the finals" logic they are using.

 

[cryptor]

I note a certain arrogance from some Geelong supporters ... according to them if Geelong beat Adelaide it must be because Geelong are a superteam, it couldn't possibly be because Adelaide had a bad game. On the other hand they would be the first people to claim that Geelong losing to Collingwood and Carlton was obviously just due to a couple of bad games from Geelong.

Ummm mate there was an entire thread on it. Geelong only lost those games due to a tough training block leading into finals. Duh!

 

[Lagooner]

It's sentient

Squignet!

 

[GreyCrow]

Squignet!

SkyBarry

 

[lamby]

There are some great graphs here - with rolling probabilities of expected finish positions and amount of games it expects each team to win, with stronger colours representing higher probabilities.

 

[Hobbes]

There are some great graphs here - with rolling probabilities of expected finish positions and amount of games it expects each team to win, with stronger colours representing higher probabilities.

Feels like this page needs some more fuzzy maths. While I accept that GWS are a clear favourite in all of their remaining matches, I don't think that they are an 80% chance to win ten out of their next ten.

 

[Final Siren]

Feels like this page needs some more fuzzy maths. While I accept that GWS are a clear favourite in all of their remaining matches, I don't think that they are an 80% chance to win ten out of their next ten.

Yes, they'd have to average a 98% likelihood of winning each individual match to have an 80% chance of winning them all. That seems over-confident. I'm also not sure how Adelaide can go from a 0% chance to finish top to a 20% chance three weeks later, then back down to zero, and now up to 6%.

That is a very good site, though.