Racing RACING FUTURES

[FallingLiefs]

Really? The last four haven’t exactly been hard to find. Maybe not this early but certainly very early next season. The point remains- all the Sydney horses in the market are unlikely to run here. Whittles away some of those at the top of the market.

Yeah just checked results and saw Mosheen and a few others down lower. Generally needs to be a dominant spring horse to hold up in autumn when all the other horses keep improving. Don't think we had one this year.

 

[iluvparis]

Really? The last four haven’t exactly been hard to find. Maybe not this early but certainly very early next season. The point remains- all the Sydney horses in the market are unlikely to run here. Whittles away some of those at the top of the market.

Feels like a solid hindsight call to be honest but each to their own. Honestly don't remember of any of them being that well fancied at the start of the season (the thousand guineas especially) apart from the obvious Shamus as Liefs stated.

Let us know when you have found this year's winners

 

[iluvparis]

Yeah just checked results and saw Mosheen and a few others down lower. Generally needs to be a dominant spring horse to hold up in autumn when all the other horses keep improving. Don't think we had one this year.

Except even Mosheen you can't count because everyone would have been on Helmet in the offseason.

 

[mcnulty]

Tend to agree with that but some of those improvers aren’t too difficult to spot- Palentino looked all over a Guineas horse at the end f his 3yo Spring, Mystic Journey dominated one what turned out to be a very hot form race on Cox Plate day, and not any missed what Grunt did in the summer. Hey Doc just was (and is ) a good ho

Yeah just checked results and saw Mosheen and a few others down lower. Generally needs to be a dominant spring horse to hold up in autumn when all the other horses keep improving. Don't think we had one this year.

Tend to agree with that but some of those improvers aren’t too difficult to spot- Palentino looked all over a Guineas horse at the end f his 3yo Spring, Mystic Journey dominated one what turned out to be a very hot form race on Cox Plate day, and not many missed what Grunt did in the summer. Hey Doc just was (and is) a good horse.

I didn’t back them all pre post, but I don’t think it’s a particularly tricky race, because it’s usually thin.

 

[mcnulty]

Feels like a solid hindsight call to be honest but each to their own. Honestly don't remember of any of them being that well fancied at the start of the season (the thousand guineas especially) apart from the obvious Shamus as Liefs stated.

Let us know when you have found this year's winners

I‘ve told you what I’ve backed so we’ll see. I’m working on the assumption that Castevecchio, Funstar, Kubrick and probably Alligator Blood won’t be there. Chosen one I think has the runs on the board and another I think is an up and comer.

Anyway that’s my logic, usually doesn’t work out but hey, that’s punting.

 

[iluvparis]

Tend to agree with that but some of those improvers aren’t too difficult to spot- Palentino looked all over a Guineas horse at the end f his 3yo Spring, Mystic Journey dominated one what turned out to be a very hot form race on Cox Plate day, and not any missed what Grunt did in the summer. Hey Doc just was (and is ) a good ho

Well obviously plenty did given he SP'd $7 in the main lead up (and opened $9). I'm sorry but this just all has too much hindsight about it for my liking. Let's monitor it in this thread going forward though.

 

[mcnulty]

I’m not hindsight backing. Never done that and never will. I didn’t back Grunt, though plenty did given he started at $5.50. He was longer in the lead up race of course because it was thought he’d be better over a mile, and a horse like Cliffs Edge (fave from memory) would be too sharp for him.

But if I had have wanted to back Grunt pre post two years ago, I probably would have found him in a market with Kemantari, Trapeze Artist, Pierata etc who he didn’t have to worry about. That’s the point I’m trying to make.

 

[iluvparis]

Yes and my point is that just because you can exclude the Sydney horses doesn't make it any easier to find the winner. Also Grunt's SP on the day is completely irrelevant when discussing futures.

 

[mcnulty]

Of course it makes it easier. Never easy, but easier.

 

[HeathySure]

The problem this year with the Aust Guineas is that the All star mile is a thing now and some Sydney horses might use the Guineas as a practice run. Not exactly sure when the All Star field is finalised though. We can at least see who is being voted for.

 

[iluvparis]

Of course it makes it easier. Never easy, but easier.

Only if the bookies actually take those Sydney horses out of the market. If it is 130% market without them and a 170% market with them in it actually doesn't make any difference.

 

[mcnulty]

The problem this year with the Aust Guineas is that the All star mile is a thing now and some Sydney horses might use the Guineas as a practice run. Not exactly sure when the All Star field is finalised though. We can at least see who is being voted for.

Fair point. I guess they could lure Funstar or CV down with a slot. Must admit I hadn’t thought of that, horses that ordinarily wouldn’t be lining up have more chance of now.

 

[mcnulty]

Doubt they’d want to give CV two starts at the mile though...

 

[HeathySure]

Doubt they’d want to give CV two starts at the mile though...

My opinion is CV wont race again to protect his stud value but i am a cynic

 

[frantelle]

My opinion is CV wont race again to protect his stud value but i am a cynic

He'll target the typical stallion making races if he does race again

 

[mcnulty]

The problem this year with the Aust Guineas is that the All star mile is a thing now and some Sydney horses might use the Guineas as a practice run. Not exactly sure when the All Star field is finalised though. We can at least see who is being voted for.

Dammit, you were right. Still, think (hope) he’s a risk at a mile.

Alligator Blood confirmed for All-Star Mile campaign - Racenet

New boom horse Alligator Blood has pushed to the top of the All-Star Mile public vote and now trainer David Vandyke has confirmed he will head to Melbourne on a campaign leading towards the $5m race. A Racing Victoria official tweeted last Saturday the Caulfield Guineas runner-up and Gold Coast...

www.racenet.com.au

 

[iluvparis]

Dammit, you were right. Still, think (hope) he’s a risk at a mile.

Alligator Blood confirmed for All-Star Mile campaign - Racenet

New boom horse Alligator Blood has pushed to the top of the All-Star Mile public vote and now trainer David Vandyke has confirmed he will head to Melbourne on a campaign leading towards the $5m race. A Racing Victoria official tweeted last Saturday the Caulfield Guineas runner-up and Gold Coast...

www.racenet.com.au

How is he a risk at the mile off his Guineas performance?

 

[HeathySure]

Dammit, you were right. Still, think (hope) he’s a risk at a mile.

Alligator Blood confirmed for All-Star Mile campaign - Racenet

New boom horse Alligator Blood has pushed to the top of the All-Star Mile public vote and now trainer David Vandyke has confirmed he will head to Melbourne on a campaign leading towards the $5m race. A Racing Victoria official tweeted last Saturday the Caulfield Guineas runner-up and Gold Coast...

www.racenet.com.au

If the Caulfield Guineas was .00001 meters shorter he would have won (and so would have i ) He can run a mile. He is going to be up for a long time though. Thats my worry

 

[mcnulty]

Top class sprinters have won or placed in Caulfield Guineas before, even though their best is over shorter. He’ll “get” a mile but I think it’s beyond his best.

Mind you, he still may be good enough.

 

[iluvparis]

Top class sprinters have won or placed in Caulfield Guineas before, even though their best is over shorter. He’ll “get” a mile but I think it’s beyond his best.

Mind you, he still may be good enough.

He seemed to get it against most of the 3yo camels he will race in the Guineas again

 

[mcnulty]

Just looked at the CG sectionals 12.03 last 600, tenth fastest in what was not a particularly fast run race.

Things go his way and he can win no doubt, he’s very good (and certainly I’d rather he wasn’t there), but don’t want a bar of him in the All Star Mile

 

[iluvparis]

I thought we were talking about the Guineas given that's where all your antepost bets are.

 

[mcnulty]

We are and I did. The last was just an observation. He’s $6 fave for the All Star on TAB right now.

 

[FallingLiefs]

AB was definitely short stepping late to a horse i don't rate also had the perfect trail. Seems to have come back bigger and better (last run was top class 1400m 3yo performance) but yeah wouldn't be declaring he gets the mile just yet. He should through maturity.

 

[mcnulty]

It’s funny, I first thought the Guineas was a goddawful race but there’s four horses off the top of my head that’ve come out and won since, albeit in their own age group.

Might be that those horses have in turn won goddawful races, but I think it might be better than I first thought.