Preview Round 0 - Carlton vs Brisbane Friday March 8 - 7.40PM AEDT @ The Gabba - Team Stickied

[Aphrodite]

Team is in …

AFL team news: Carlton's first team of 2024

There's a club debutant in the mix as Carlton returns to action for season 2024.

www.carltonfc.com.au

Opening Round team v Brisbane
Backs:	Brodie Kemp	Lewis Young	Adam Saad
Half-backs:	Zac Williams	Mitch McGovern	Nic Newman
Centreline:	Blake Acres	Patrick Cripps	Matthew Kennedy
Half-forwards:	George Hewett	Charlie Curnow	Matthew Owies
Forwards:	Orazio Fantasia	Harry McKay	David Cuningham
Followers:	Tom De Koning	Adam Cerra	Sam Docherty
Interchange:	Jordan Boyd	Jack Carroll	Matthew Cottrell
	Lachie Fogarty	Ollie Hollands
Emergencies:	Jaxon Binns	Alex Cincotta	Marc Pittonet

 

[carlton_99]

​

Prologue
It has been a LONG 168 days since we last saw the Blues fight it out and I for one am thrilled that we are back for a massive 2024 AFL season. Opening Round, Round 0 or Round “how many finals wins * have had since Twitter was invented” it doesn’t really matter because we have a lot to look forward to. Seven months of salivating over Stig O'Hara's pre-game meal, seven months of waiting for that ever elusive “bounce the ball ffs” post from Arr0w, and seven months of watching Charlie wheel around from 75m out and finding a running small leading to the goal square. Footy is back for 2024 and the competition is about as even as it has ever been. Legitimate arguments could be made for 13 teams to make the 8 and probably six within that to win it all.

Introduction
Anyway, now that the pleasantries are sorted it is time to move on to this massive game against the Lions at the Gabba. 168 days after our Preliminary Final loss to them we get a chance to get some revenge. But it is going to be very difficult – this is an incredibly high-quality team that is almost unbeatable at home. And the numbers back this up with 14 home wins in a row stretching back to Round 22 2022. They have A-grade talent on every line, a good coach who gets the best out of every player on the list, and a great mix of youth and experience. But, and I can finally say this without sounding insane – Carlton have those same traits going into the 2024 season. There is no longer a reason for us to go into any game expecting to lose. We have gone through too much for that rubbish. And so I am going to discuss what I think are the keys to getting this W and starting the season with a
1-0 record.

Key Matchups
Patrick Cripps Vs Josh Dunkley

5

Josh Dunkley

Age

27

Ht

191cm

Wt

87kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

21.8

5star

K

10.4

4star

HB

11.3

5star

M

4.3

4star

T

5.8

5star

CL

3.2

5star

D

20.7

5star

K

7.0

3star

HB

13.7

5star

M

2.3

2star

T

5.3

5star

CL

2.7

4star

D

14.2

4star

K

7.2

3star

HB

7.0

5star

M

4.8

5star

T

4.0

5star

CL

1.4

4star

This is a matchup that went against us the two times we played the Lions in 2023. Dunkley has been an inspired pick-up for Brisbane and is elite at pretty much everything - he can beat you on the inside, do damage on the outside, and can go forward and take a mark. However, one massively underrated part of his game is his work as a defensive midfielder which is where he has exceled against us in the past two encounters. Stats are not always a great indicator of player performance but Dunkley significantly reduced Cripps' influence on the contest in Round 8 (13 disposals and 4 clearances) and the Preliminary Final (17 disposals and 3 clearances). Dunkley himself also had a massive impact on the game going the other way and was BOG in Round 8 and also very good in the Preliminary Final. It is crucial that Cripps is able to break this "tag" and get to what makes him great which is brutal contested footy and getting the ball out to our distributors in Cerra, Docherty, O.Hollands, Saad, Newman, and hopefully Williams and Walsh.

Harry McKay Vs Harris Andrews

31

Harris Andrews

Age

27

Ht

202cm

Wt

98kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.8

3star

K

7.4

3star

HB

5.4

4star

M

5.6

5star

T

1.6

4star

MG

151.7

2star

D

17.0

4star

K

9.0

4star

HB

8.0

4star

M

4.0

4star

T

2.0

3star

D

9.8

3star

K

5.0

2star

HB

4.8

4star

M

3.4

4star

T

1.6

4star

MG

94.0

2star

This for me is the most intriguing matchup of the game and could go a long way to deciding it. Andrews had an incredible 2023 season and was in my opinion unbelievably unlucky to miss out on the AA team. He is not only a great intercept player and user of the ball, but also a very good one-on-one defender. However, I thought McKay did a really good job on him in the Preliminary Final and with his length caused Andrews some difficulties. We know that McKay does a lot of brilliant work up the ground and has primarily played as a CHF since Charlie's return. BUT... this is a game where I would switch it up and play McKay closer to goal and let Charlie roam free on the 50m line against Payne. I think McKay can really trouble Andrews with his height and at worst bring the ball down to the crumbers. I want to be clear: this is something I would try for this game only - I still see Harry as our long-term CHF option. This will also hopefully give Harry some high quality shots at goal and boost his confidence for the season.

Adam Saad Vs Charlie Cameron

23

Charlie Cameron

Age

29

Ht

180cm

Wt

76kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.1

3star

K

8.4

3star

HB

3.7

3star

M

3.0

3star

T

3.2

5star

G

1.5

5star

D

9.6

2star

K

7.9

3star

HB

1.7

1star

M

3.6

4star

T

1.7

3star

G

1.9

5star

D

9.6

3star

K

5.4

2star

HB

4.2

4star

M

1.4

2star

T

3.4

5star

G

1.2

4star

Cameron is currently the best small forward in the competition and has troubled us in the past. Saad did a very good job on him in the Preliminary Final keeping him to 10 touches and a goal, and so I don't see them moving away from this matchup. I personally don't think Newman has the speed to keep up with Cameron, whilst Boyd (who is in my 22) does not yet have the experience to man someone like Cameron. Now this would make Saad more accountable and it would put a lot of pressure on Newman, Boyd, McGovern, and hopefully Williams to provide a lot of drive off HB to kickstart our transition play from D50. I trust that they can get this job done whilst also taking care of the likes of Rayner and Bailey who are dangerous.

Predicted Team
There are a number of players that have already been ruled out for Opening Round (i.e., Weitering, Silvagni and E.Hollands) and also a bunch with injury clouds over them (i.e., Walsh, Williams, Martin, Marchbank, Kennedy, Owies and C.Durdin). Hopefully, we find out more information about the availability of these players in the coming days (will edit post when we do) but for the time being I am going to take the worst case scenario and assume that all of them are out:

FB: Boyd Young Kemp
HB: Newman McGovern Saad
C: O.Hollands Cripps Acres
HF: Cottrell Curnow Fantasia
FF: Motlop McKay Fogarty
FOL: TDK Hewett Cerra
INT: Docherty Cuningham Pittonet Moir
M/SUB: Binns

Now this is obviously not the team I want to be putting out for Opening Round against the Lions at the Gabba. But if those ten players are all out I don't see us having any other options that are deserving of a spot for this game. However, if the seven players under injury clouds are available for selection I want to see the team looking more like this:

FB: Boyd Young Marchbank/Kemp
HB: Newman McGovern Saad
C: O.Hollands Cripps Acres
HF: Cottrell Curnow Martin
FF: Motlop McKay Fantasia
FOL: TDK Walsh Cerra
INT: Docherty Williams Hewett Kennedy
M/SUB: Cuningham

Now this is a much better team but there are some caveats:

1. With a team like this you obviously have TDK as the number 1 ruck but it leaves McKay having to do the rest of it when TDK is off/resting forward. Not sure if this is a long-term strategy but I think McKay should be able to go with Daniher in the ruck and around the ground. This will give Pitt a bit more time to get AFL-ready. However, when McKay is playing forward I want to see him at FF rather than HF for the reasons explained above.

2. I have also included Kennedy in this team but I would want him to be forward-mid rather than a mid-forward. He has a great set of hands, a beautiful set shot for goal and also is brilliant at actually leading at the ball carrier - something we lack with Silvagni out. He can obviously rotate into the middle but I don't want to see him and Hewett or Cripps at many CBAs together.

3. I would normally prefer a Marchbank/Kemp/McGovern backline when Weitering is out but with Brisbane having two 200cm+ forwards in Daniher and Hipwood I think Young has to take one of those spots. At this point I would probably go Marchbank/Gov/Young, but if Marchbank isn't available I have faith Kemp can get the job done.

Tip:
This is by far the hardest fixture in the AFL - the Lions are a very high-quality side especially at home. However, the Lions do have a 1W 3L record in Round 1 over the last four years and we know there are always upsets early in the season. Hopefully we have a large chunk of those players under injury clouds available for this match and bring the same intensity and pressure we brought in the second half of 2023. Here's to a massive 2024 AFL season kicked off with a win!!!

Carlton by 9 points

 

[Arr0w]

Plenty of mystery regarding who comes in for this game, so will take a conservative approach, but still difficult to nail down

Boyd Young Kemp
Gov Marchbank/Durdin Saad

Ollie Cripps Acres
Pitto Hewett Cerra

Fantasia Charlie Moir
TDK Harry Fogarty

Cottrell Docherty Kennedy Newman

Recovering/emergencies

Williams Motlop Cincotta Walsh

Definite after the bye

Weitering, Walsh, Williams, Marchbank

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Plenty of mystery regarding who comes in for this game, so will take a conservative approach, but still difficult to nail down

Boyd Young Kemp
Gov Marchbank/Durdin Saad

Ollie Cripps Acres
Pitto Hewett Cerra

Fantasia Charlie Moir
TDK Harry Fogarty

Cottrell Docherty Kennedy Newman

Recovering/emergencies

Williams Motlop Cincotta Walsh

That forward line would apply less pressure than my local clubbies team

 

[Arr0w]

That forward line would apply less pressure than my local clubbies team

I agree, not ideal, but we have a few forwards battling injury concerns

 

[james Dean]

Looking at Melbourne tonight, Weitering is our May, but we have no Lever.

With Weitering out I can’t see us as any chance of winning this game, and Richmond could beat us too.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Great preview carlton_99

 

[carlton_99]

Great preview carlton_99

Apologies for not doing a very good job of hiding my love for Josh Dunkley

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Apologies for not doing a very good job of hiding my love for Josh Dunkley

Logic says he will beat the skipper handily. It's just his thing.

 

[FakeTaxi]

Lions by 39+

 

[thylacine60]

Lions by 39+

try taking your navy blue glasses off......

 

[Jimmae]

My hope:

FB: McGovern Young Newman
HB: Williams Kemp Saad
C: Acres Cerra O.Hollands
HF: Cottrell McKay Fogarty
FF: Martin Curnow Fantasia

R: TDK Cripps Hewett

Int: Motlop, Walsh, Wilson, Docherty

EMG: Pittonet, Cowan, Kennedy, Cuningham

 

[Benaly28]

Kennedy a must,Zac a hope.

Don’t play Pitto use H as the second ruck (ala Daniher).

Hope like hell our mids help out the backline.

Early weather forecast 28 degrees not too bad.

Free hit.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Jatz]

Really difficult to see us getting 4 points from this one.

A loss in Brisbane isn't the worst thing, Collingwood didn't manage it last season and their year turned out alright.

 

[deadoralive]

Pressure around the ball is going to be crucial. So far (granted, pre-season) the pressure has been off. Having said that, obviously fine tuning and the lineups aren't ideal which is normal for the pre-seaon. Combine that with both pre-season games in 36 degree plus weather doesn't lead to a fully accurate assessment. Hopefully.

It's the toughest task in the AFL. Beating Brisbane on their home deck. Surprise them all by doing what no other side did last year. But the fumbling from last night's pre-season game has to be rectified. If it's not, we're dead.

 

[tarczonandjane]

Last time I will put it in various threads, but overnight humidity in Brisbane at the moment is in the 80s or 90s. Last night was 94%.

It will be humid, and likely quite damp.

 

[Ald Gardiner]

The better teams have one at least one of these games - I’m sure they were tinkering too.

No Weiters no Blues for now. I doubt we beat a top 8 contender without him. Think Sicily at Hawks. May for Dees. Hey I never saw this coming btw.

They must seriously be considering a Hail Mary playing of Sam Durdin

38

Sam Durdin

Age

27

Ht

199cm

Wt

100kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

9.7

2star

K

6.2

2star

HB

3.5

3star

M

3.3

3star

T

1.7

4star

No current season stats available

D

11.2

3star

K

7.4

3star

HB

3.8

3star

M

4.0

4star

T

1.6

4star

now, at least he had a run in the 2’s. What do they have to lose? Durdin for Young.

 

[skadoosh]

Pretty simple strategy I'd implement to guarantee a win. Feel free to steal my ideas Vossy btw.

Step 1. Do what we did in the 1st quarter in the Prelim
Step 2. Don't do what we did in the remaining 3 quarters of the Prelim

 

[Yubby]

Plenty of mystery regarding who comes in for this game, so will take a conservative approach, but still difficult to nail down

Boyd Young Kemp
Gov Marchbank/Durdin Saad

Ollie Cripps Acres
Pitto Hewett Cerra

Fantasia Charlie Moir
TDK Harry Fogarty

Cottrell Docherty Kennedy Newman

Recovering/emergencies

Williams Motlop Cincotta Walsh

Definite after the bye

Weitering, Walsh, Williams, Marchbank

You'd go Moir over Cuners?

 

[Arr0w]

You'd go Moir over Cuners?

I would

 

[tarczonandjane]

I would

I can see the downside of Cuningham and the upside of Moir, Arr0w. But the question is: can Moir run out a game?

I keep harping on about the humidity, but (likely) without Walsh and Williams as well, I feel like we need players who can keep pace for the entire game.

 

[Arr0w]

I can see the downside of Cuningham and the upside of Moir, Arr0w. But the question is: can Moir run out a game?

I keep harping on about the humidity, but (likely) without Walsh and Williams as well, I feel like we need players who can keep pace for the entire game.

Cuners is like that person that reads all the theories and tactics of chess, but when thrown a variation he struggles

He is so clean and dangerous, beautiful kick, but has long quiet patches

Moir is similar in traits to Cuners, dangerous and a beautiful kick, but has a superior footy IQ

I agree though, due to previous hip issues, Moir is long way off in fitness, even compared to his draft cohorts

Perhaps neither are selected, but if Cuners does run out at the Gabba, he at least needs to be consistently strong defensively

 

[Pablito]

My hope:

FB: McGovern Young Newman
HB: Williams Kemp Saad
C: Acres Cerra O.Hollands
HF: Cottrell McKay Fogarty
FF: Martin Curnow Fantasia

R: TDK Cripps Hewett

Int: Motlop, Walsh, Wilson, Docherty

EMG: Pittonet, Cowan, Kennedy, Cuningham

Pretty much spot on except for Wilson.

I'd have Cunners, Cincotta or Boyd.

 

[Aphrodite]

8 more sleeps

 

[Soapy V]

Great write up carlton_99

The Team I would pick:

B: Boyd Durdin McGovern
HB: Williams Young Saad
C: O.Hollands Cripps Acres
HF: Docherty McKay Fantasia
F: Kennedy Curnow Motlop
FOL: TDK Hewett Cerra
INT: Walsh Newman Marchbank Cottrell
SUB: Cuningham
EM: Cincotta Pittonet Carroll Moir

I'd go with ONE ruck and get Young to follow Daniher, even when in Ruck. That's when TDK can rest
Haven't considered Martin Weitering (inj) I think Walsh will play as will Williams

 

[carlton_99]

I'd go with ONE ruck and get Young to follow Daniher, even when in Ruck

This is actually a great point and I didn't consider it. Would almost prefer that over Harry having to go in there for this game