Preview Round 1 - Brisbane Lions v Port Adelaide 7.10pm Sat 19th March - Gabba

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lionshine said:
I'd like to see Madden play, however, I would not be disappointed in the slightest if Ah Chee is named. Ah Chee underrated on here I think. Has some quiet games no doubt but also produces some fantastic games and plays his role to a tee. Terrific role player.
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Yeah, Ah Che is just a good footballer, able to compete anywhere, any level against any opponent.
 

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7NEWS Brisbane (@7NewsBrisbane) Tweeted:
The brisbanelions are still sweating on the fitness of their best player ahead of Saturday's Season Opener at @GabbaBrisbane. In the first of his Monday Night Exclusive's for 7NEWS, @DayneZorko joins us in the Lion's Den. Sport @BenDavis74 #uncaged #7AFL #7NEWS https://t.co/nMx2jY4RGT

 
Okay so Prior and Robertson out. Let's say hypothetically Zorko and Robinson don't play either, who comes in? You'd think Madden to replace Kiddy, Ah Chee or Sharp to play wing in place of Robbo and does Matho get a look in as an extra mid rotation with Zorko out?

Could be Ah Chee for Kiddy, Sharp for Robbo and Matho for Zorks as well with Madden potentially playing sub. Mitchell Cox or Ely Smith as big outsiders? It will be interesting.
 
lionshine said:
Okay so Prior and Robertson out. Let's say hypothetically Zorko and Robinson don't play either, who comes in? You'd think Madden to replace Kiddy, Ah Chee or Sharp to play wing in place of Robbo and does Matho get a look in as an extra mid rotation with Zorko out?

Could be Ah Chee for Kiddy, Sharp for Robbo and Matho for Zorks as well with Madden potentially playing sub. Mitchell Cox or Ely Smith as big outsiders? It will be interesting.
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Zorko & Robinson will play, I'm pretty sure. Almost certain.
 
Dalions said:
Certain enough to offer to pay for everyone on Big Footy a Lions membership for next year if they don’t get up?
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If they both don't play, I'll get Nunez to buy everybody a 2024 membership too.
 
Interesting to hear from McCluggage today about the mindset among the group in regards to the game this weekend. I imagine the importance of starting strong would've been one of the main points of discussion for the club over the past few weeks. Hopefully, that talk translates into action and we get back into the winner's column for round 1.
 

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Good to see the focus from the club on the "Round 1 issues". I also think they need to to extend their focus to starting games well. As an example, we haven't kicked the first goal of a game since Round 16 vs Adelaide last season - that's 9 games in a row, 10 if you count the Bulldogs match 2 weeks ago. Given "first goal of the game" is as close to a 50-50 probability as you can get, that's a 0.2% likelihood of happening randomly... which indicates it ain't random with our group.

Over the years I've observed that teams who start a game well, tend to finish that game well. There are exceptions of course but I think generally it holds pretty true. We saw that play out in our preseason match really noticeably. Even Round 1 last year, we started off like a house on fire, and we actually finished the game off pretty well also... it was just the bit in between where we were absolutely abysmal. Similarly I think teams that start a season well also finish that season well. Melbourne were the obvious example in 2021, and we were obvious in the other direction.

I guess if you start poorly, in either the game or the season, you have to work extra hard to make up that ground in the middle periods, and perhaps that costs you at the end.

Needless to say I'll be watching our start super close on Saturday night!
 
Grasshopper17 said:
Good to see the focus from the club on the "Round 1 issues". I also think they need to to extend their focus to starting games well. As an example, we haven't kicked the first goal of a game since Round 16 vs Adelaide last season - that's 9 games in a row, 10 if you count the Bulldogs match 2 weeks ago. Given "first goal of the game" is as close to a 50-50 probability as you can get, that's a 0.2% likelihood of happening randomly... which indicates it ain't random with our group.

Over the years I've observed that teams who start a game well, tend to finish that game well. There are exceptions of course but I think generally it holds pretty true. We saw that play out in our preseason match really noticeably. Even Round 1 last year, we started off like a house on fire, and we actually finished the game off pretty well also... it was just the bit in between where we were absolutely abysmal. Similarly I think teams that start a season well also finish that season well. Melbourne were the obvious example in 2021, and we were obvious in the other direction.

I guess if you start poorly, in either the game or the season, you have to work extra hard to make up that ground in the middle periods, and perhaps that costs you at the end.

Needless to say I'll be watching our start super close on Saturday night!
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I am not too worried about who scores the first goal. However a good or solid start is preferable
More important in the modern game is to stop a run of unanswered goals
Weather that be early, middle or late in the game
We are a good team and in the last few years i always felt pretty confident if we were within 2 goals at 1/4 time
Being up by 2 is better though
Can't wait for Saturdays game.
With 5 games played before ours coaches and players should have a good idea on umpires rule interoperations for round 1
 
Some game day information

Match 1: AFLW Qualifying Final Details​

Who: Brisbane Lions vs Collingwood
Where: The Gabba
When: Saturday 19th March at 3:10pm (local time)
Gates Open: 2:30pm (local time)
Match Day Covid Info: Read all about it here
Milestones: Bre Koenen 50 games. Dakota Davidson 25 games.

Match 2: AFL Round 1​

Who: Brisbane Lions vs Port Adelaide
Where: The Gabba
When: Saturday 19th March at 7:10pm (local time)
Gates Open: 2:30pm (local time)
Match Day Covid Info: Read all about it here

Please be ready to Check In and display your proof of vaccination upon entry.

Ticketing is once again digital for the 2022 season. Simply download the Official Brisbane Lions Club App to have your game access at your fingertips.

It's a double header! Purchase a ticket to the AFL Round 1, and get in early to watch the AFLW final for free! Get your tickets - HERE

AFLW Access members of both clubs will have access to purchase $10 Adult / $0 Junior General Admission tickets for this match. One ticket provides access to both matches (men's access members or existing ticketholders can access both games on their current ticket). - Available from Wednesday 10am on ticketmaster.

Go All In and live the suite life this season with AreaVIP, The Verandah or GG. View our Corporate Hospitality tickets here.

www.lions.com.au

Double Header Match Day Guide: Sat 19th March

Well footy fans, the stars have aligned and we've got a super Saturday of football on the cards, with an epic double header!
www.lions.com.au www.lions.com.au
 
Grasshopper17 said:
Good to see the focus from the club on the "Round 1 issues". I also think they need to to extend their focus to starting games well. As an example, we haven't kicked the first goal of a game since Round 16 vs Adelaide last season - that's 9 games in a row, 10 if you count the Bulldogs match 2 weeks ago. Given "first goal of the game" is as close to a 50-50 probability as you can get, that's a 0.2% likelihood of happening randomly... which indicates it ain't random with our group.

Over the years I've observed that teams who start a game well, tend to finish that game well. There are exceptions of course but I think generally it holds pretty true. We saw that play out in our preseason match really noticeably. Even Round 1 last year, we started off like a house on fire, and we actually finished the game off pretty well also... it was just the bit in between where we were absolutely abysmal. Similarly I think teams that start a season well also finish that season well. Melbourne were the obvious example in 2021, and we were obvious in the other direction.

I guess if you start poorly, in either the game or the season, you have to work extra hard to make up that ground in the middle periods, and perhaps that costs you at the end.

Needless to say I'll be watching our start super close on Saturday night!
Click to expand...
I read this and thought, no way. 9 games in a row. Don't believe it. But it's true!

Went hunting for what that means and found this, it is a few years old

The First Goal – How Much of an Advantage?

www.footyalmanac.com.au www.footyalmanac.com.au

59% winning chance when you kick the first goal. So giving the first away so often is not great

It does drop down to 53% in finals which softens the blow.

So yes an interesting stat - not that I would as coach be saying kick the first goal! But i would be looking at HOW we are conceding the first goal and if there is any pattern addressing that. EG is it loose defending that tightens up after the first goal? Centre square set up?
 
Timetoroarlike44 said:
59% winning chance when you kick the first goal. So giving the first away so often is not great

It does drop down to 53% in finals which softens the blow.
Click to expand...
The 6% difference between regular season and finals smells a lot like the difference between correlation and causation.

Correlation is when they both increase/decrease in parallel but there's a different cause, e.g. the better team is more likely to win, and the better team is more likely to kick the first goal.

Causation would be that the team that kicks the first goal has a impact on who is going to win.

The fact that the correlation drops to almost equal in finals when both teams are presumably higher quality (unless they're Essendon) strongly suggests there is not a great deal of predictive value in the statistic.
 
I don't have any stats but logic tells me it's immaterial who kicks the first goal. Both teams often coming out charging in like headless chooks and it's too flukey what happens. Although logic also says that the team that wins is more likely to kick the first goal because they're kicking more goals overall so the hindsight odds on any random one are tilted in their favour , the odds depending on the margin.
 
The easiest money the bookies pick up is the who kicks the first goal option.

Their markets are loaded at around 150-160% , not a betting proposition ,and the punters usually go for popular players. Who are always below what their true odds should be.
 
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