Recommitted Rowan Marshall [OOC 2027] - Requested Trade to Geelong, didn't get done

[Wojcinski]

if Curnow goes to Sydney then we’ll have Geelong over a barrel for Big Ro. 2 1sts of f*** off pussy cats

His career is almost over, let him see some success

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Now we're at the point of repeating earlier posts over and over I'll put a little spin on mine.

Contracted Marshall at St Kilda, ignoring Max King doubts and Mitch Owens being the other CHF choice. (which reminds me, I was watching AFLW yesterday, Kennedy from Carlton had an amazing ball drop).

Best Case: Riley Thilthorpe
Mid Case: Full season Charlie Dixon
Worst Case: Better than pick 24 in this draft

and Mitch Owens becomes a high impact bull midfielder.

Thumbs up from Gerard

Thanks for a considered response. I'll try give a considered one in return. I'm going to assume your comparisons to Charlie Dixon and Riley Thilthorpe are tongue in cheek there and walk past those though.

I think there's a couple of other outcomes that are more likely so this is what i think the cases should be.

Optimistic: Somewhat better than Rory Lobb

Reasoning (spoiler because it's long):

Spoiler

Why i make the comparison: our base case for Rowan working as a forward is 2020 when he shared with Ryder. This is the one saints fans point to so let's use that.

Comparing Rowan's forward craft to other forwards that season is hard because few forwards played so much ruck, and it's difficult to compare to other seasons because of the shortened games. But there is one - Rory Lobb. Both Rory and Rowan played 40% ruck based on number of ruck contests and tog%, and they both took contests every week.

You can't really compare most stats for the two here because Marshall's far superior ability around the ground when in the ruck pumps up his score involvements and disposals. But you can compare goals.

Lobb kicked 10 goals from 19 matches, Marshall 13 from 22. Marshall's numbers are somewhat better, so scaling up his 2020 season to a full year as key forward makes him somewhat better than Rory Lobb.

Why i made it the optimistic case:
Permanently shifting a swing man doesn't generally work this way. Jack Henry, Lachie Henderson, Harry Taylor have all done it in games where they're not stay at home forwards and when we've started them there and the opposition knows it's coming they disappear.

Being an actual stay at home key forward takes years to learn and until they've learned good defensive groups will eat them alive especially when they can do their homework on you.

That's why I made this the optimistic case. It's optimistic to think this scales when history shows it almost never does.

Mid/Low case: Brodie Grundy 2023

Reasoning (spoiler for tidiness):

Spoiler

We know Marshall works well with other rucks because we've seen it. We also know TDK doesn't because we've seen that too.

So Marshall, a gun ruck, can't ruck unless covering injury.

If you have King at FF then the remaining marking space has to consider Sharman. He kicked 34 goals this year and averaged the same marks inside 50 number as Shannon neale.

You trash Owens regularly but he still kicked 25 goals this year aged 22. I don't think you're turning him in to a midfielder either.

Marshall there may have at best no impact on their development but almost may hold them back substantially.

So, pending injuries, the match committee will be presented with a choice of putting development games into two young forwards who want to be there or a 30 year old who doesn't want to be there and is at the same stage of development in his forward craft as they are.

That's why I think the match committee will put him there. You just don't be able to teach him the role quick enough

I've kept this to cases where he stays but I will say that drafting a kid wouldn't be the worst idea. The pick we offered should get you the other Phillipou from what I've read

 

[Tasmanian saint]

You misread what i said. I said the gap isn't the Ruck position, it's the midfielder position.
We don't have a genuine contested ball winning mid.
We have two great outside runners in Dash bros, a contested defensive bull in Atkins, a pretty decent contested player in Worpel and then a bunch of taggers or blokes who don't play midfield as their actual position.

Our forward line is elite, our backline is pretty good but our midfield is our weakest link and has been since 2022 Premiership year.

We genuinely lack a guy who can win footy from the inside and has class. Brisbane have about 4 of those types of players at their disposal...the difference is stark.

It's pretty obvious with the Harley Reid and Zak Butters interest this year what Geelong is chasing.
Marshall solves a problem, but that is not THE difference between the two sides.

So your playing against a team with a formidable midfield I would have thought if you could limit them from getting first use of the somewhat it would have pretty decent impact

 

[Kobe Gryant]

Fair enough, hand on heart I didn't realise Holmes was that young

It's probably the rapid thinning of the hair. The poor kid is quickly looking like he's in his early thirties.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

So your playing against a team with a formidable midfield I would have thought if you could limit them from getting first use of the somewhat it would have pretty decent impact

Even when the fall of the ball went our way our players just got pushed out the way. Max Gawn wouldn't have turned that tide

 

[MisterMarcus]

if Curnow goes to Sydney then we’ll have Geelong over a barrel for Big Ro. 2 1sts of f*** off pussy cats

Always pretty funny seeing a childish troll followed by "Suspended"...

 

[VDS66]

Have Geeelong reached that "certain point" where they just walk away yet?

 

[Mr Meow]

Have Geeelong reached that "certain point" where they just walk away yet?

30 seconds before the deadline they might.

 

[stavro#4]

30 seconds before the deadline they might.

Is this whilst simultaneously pushing your current 2025 first rounder to us as some great deal?.


Like at a certain point your either going to have to throw up multiple firsts or a player like SDK if you genuinely want this to get done - because we have no interest in the offer of the last week and the reports that Geelong and Mackie thought we were desperate for a salary related trade are wrong.

 

[Mr Meow]

Is this whilst simultaneously pushing your current 2025 first rounder to us as some great deal?.


Like at a certain point your either going to have to throw up multiple firsts or a player like SDK if you genuinely want this to get done - because we have no interest in the offer of the last week and the reports that Geelong and Mackie thought we were desperate for a salary related trade are wrong.

Wait till the deadline and find out. Get worked up in the meantime. These are our instructions from AFL house. It seems like you're following protocol.

 

[Tiger_Of_Old]

If i was Marshall i'd tell Geelong to Holla somewhere else.
Keen on him
Then Curnow came on the scene
Dropped him like an old Battery
Now trying to recharge.
Give Port a call and see if they can RACV you out of the Saints.

 

[stavro#4]

Wait till the deadline and find out. Get worked up in the meantime. These are our instructions from AFL house. It seems like you're following protocol.

Worked up?

Mate, Geelong fans do like to talk up how amazing they are as operators. But you missed on Curnow and would be going against all your principals of walking away at a high cost if you ended up getting Marshall.

The likely outcome is that Geelong fans are far more worked out with or without Marshall at the end of trade period than any Saints fan will be.

 

[Mr Meow]

Worked up?

Mate, Geelong fans do like to talk up how amazing they are as operators. But you missed on Curnow and would be going against all your principals of walking away at a high cost if you ended up getting Marshall.

The likely outcome is that Geelong fans are far more worked out with or without Marshall at the end of trade period than any Saints fan will be.

I'm sure you'll be able to highlight my many posts stating Geelong are amazing operators in the trade period, or the deals I have stated St Kilda must accept. It sounds like you've got it all worked out.

Not all trades go through. If this one doesn't then nobody has to cry. We especially don't have to start crying early.

 

[billings2paddy]

Wait till the deadline and find out. Get worked up in the meantime. These are our instructions from AFL house. It seems like you're following protocol.

Just waiting for the Mack attack

 

[Mr Meow]

Just waiting for the Mack attack

Not much he can do about a required player. I actually think Ro has a 40 goal season with the Saints in 2026 and we all end up laughing at this silly thread.

 

[HairyO]

His career is almost over, let him see some success

For you guys he is just hitting prime age.

 

[Deepthroat]

The possibility of St Kilda sending Marshall to Geelong completely confuses me.

What is the compelling return on trade that would drive this.

St Kilda have gone all chips in on immediate improvement and top end competitiveness.

If their tactic is successful they will be part of September 2026 action and looking to go as deep as possible.


Why on earth would they provide a potential September opponent with a relatively easy fix to a hole in their list.

Imagine a Semi Final scenario Saints v Geelong...

Wouldn't Saints prefer to have a TDK/Marshall v Stanley/Blicavs scenario?

Why would they flip the advantage with a TDK/Owens v Marshall/Blicavs scenario?

It makes no sense.....

 

[Atomboy]

The possibility of St Kilda sending Marshall to Geelong completely confuses me.

What is the compelling return on trade that would drive this.

St Kilda have gone all chips in on immediate improvement and top end competitiveness.

If their tactic is successful they will be part of September 2026 action and looking to go as deep as possible.


Why on earth would they provide a potential September opponent with a relatively easy fix to a hole in their list.

Imagine a Semi Final scenario Saints v Geelong...

Wouldn't Saints prefer to have a TDK/Marshall v Stanley/Blicavs scenario?

Why would they flip the advantage with a TDK/Owens v Marshall/Blicavs scenario?

It makes no sense.....

Totally, Roma in our team makes us much more competitive.

Really hoping he stays rather than turfing him out for some chump change pick.

 

[Sully111]

The possibility of St Kilda sending Marshall to Geelong completely confuses me.

What is the compelling return on trade that would drive this.

St Kilda have gone all chips in on immediate improvement and top end competitiveness.

If their tactic is successful they will be part of September 2026 action and looking to go as deep as possible.


Why on earth would they provide a potential September opponent with a relatively easy fix to a hole in their list.

Imagine a Semi Final scenario Saints v Geelong...

Wouldn't Saints prefer to have a TDK/Marshall v Stanley/Blicavs scenario?

Why would they flip the advantage with a TDK/Owens v Marshall/Blicavs scenario?

It makes no sense.....

You're spot on.

I hope we keep him.

The ridiculous narrative will be that we were unreasonable but it makes no sense to trade him unless the deal is hugely in our favour.

 

[Marlo]

The possibility of St Kilda sending Marshall to Geelong completely confuses me.

What is the compelling return on trade that would drive this.

St Kilda have gone all chips in on immediate improvement and top end competitiveness.

If their tactic is successful they will be part of September 2026 action and looking to go as deep as possible.


Why on earth would they provide a potential September opponent with a relatively easy fix to a hole in their list.

Imagine a Semi Final scenario Saints v Geelong...

Wouldn't Saints prefer to have a TDK/Marshall v Stanley/Blicavs scenario?

Why would they flip the advantage with a TDK/Owens v Marshall/Blicavs scenario?

It makes no sense.....

Completely agree, despite username being wildly confronting

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Have Geeelong reached that "certain point" where they just walk away yet?

Not yet but tomorrow we will.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

So your playing against a team with a formidable midfield I would have thought if you could limit them from getting first use of the somewhat it would have pretty decent impact

Toby Conway's been the next in line for 2-3 years and never really had a clear, injury free run at making the #1 spot his. If we pick up Marshall, he probably never will.

I think this is where people may find Geelong's lack of desperation to get this done perplexing; I'd almost have it the other way and say I'd be worried if we were pulling out all the stops for Marshall, as the inference I'd take from that (especially with Stanley playing on) is that Conway's body could be cactus.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

Worked up?

Mate, Geelong fans do like to talk up how amazing they are as operators. But you missed on Curnow and would be going against all your principals of walking away at a high cost if you ended up getting Marshall.

The likely outcome is that Geelong fans are far more worked out with or without Marshall at the end of trade period than any Saints fan will be.

Going against principles?
We generally chase out of contract players. This is two contracted players choosing us.

Much harder to do why sticking to our principles of not overpaying

 

[brutus76]

I'd believe a Brownlow Medallist in Gerard Healy over the last picked at recess flog Purple.

Try TDK and Marshall for a year. If it's ends up as Gawn and Grundy 2.0 they divorce and seperate this time next year

 

[TheOsprey]

Going against principles?
We generally chase out of contract players. This is two contracted players choosing us.

Much harder to do why sticking to our principles of not overpaying

Impossible actually so what do you think the point is?

That somehow Carlton would have just said yes to the offer that you put forward?

It doesn’t sound like you’re doing a Hawthorn and trying to get the contracted players to burn bridges with their club.

Genuinely not sure what the strategy is here. Carlton will need massive overs for Curnow to stop fans microwaving memberships. Saints need a good offer for Marshall to make it worthwhile trading a great player so they can end up in a positive net position out of it and strengthen other areas.