Coach Sam Mitchell's direction for the club and 2024 news

[Strapping Young Lad]

If anyone wants to have a listen about what the data is saying in regards to whether we have actually gotten worse this year have a listen to this from the 9:15 mark.

I know a few people have already touched on it, but the data is also showing that our results this year have been slightly better despite actually putting out a younger team and dealing with some injuries.




And here.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

A decent article based on some science at least....

Your AFL team's predicted finish for 2023

Lots of good stats in there.


Interestingly the Squiggle and other data sites have a calculated 9.8 win season for us based on their combine data sets and analysis.

 

[KermitJagger]

Lots of good stats in there.


Interestingly the Squiggle and other data sites have a calculated 9.8 win season for us based on their combine data sets and analysis.

View attachment 1631595

Interesting as most of these + / - depending on player ins and outs. Jaegs, Mitchell and Gunston not being more statistically significant outs is interesting - though I imagine the Gunston loss balances things out as he wasn't factored in to the models last year due to time missed in previous seasons.

 

[Sixpence]

Lots of good stats in there.


Interestingly the Squiggle and other data sites have a calculated 9.8 win season for us based on their combine data sets and analysis.

View attachment 1631595

Win 10 games and only finish 15th? Is that even possible? If so, it'd still be highly unlikely.

 

[Brishawk]

A decent article based on some science at least....

Your AFL team's predicted finish for 2023

I was thinking of doing something similar. Glad this person saved me the trouble

A team that wins 8 games most often improves in the following year so let’s hope that trend continues.

 

[hawkman]

I was thinking of doing something similar. Glad this person saved me the trouble

A team that wins 8 games most often improves in the following year so let’s hope that trend continues.

The team that finished 13th is also one of the most likely to jump up and into the 8

Happened in 17, 18, 19, 21 and if Carlton didn't choke it would have happened last year as well

 

[Brishawk]

Interesting as most of these + / - depending on player ins and outs. Jaegs, Mitchell and Gunston not being more statistically significant outs is interesting - though I imagine the Gunston loss balances things out as he wasn't factored in to the models last year due to time missed in previous seasons.

I think mostly player movements are offset by other things. Teams don’t usually trade out prime time and when they do, they probably have a plan to offset the loss to some degree in the short term.

 

[Davo-27]

So we are expected to win 8-10 games based on this data and the data seems decently accurate, the only team who over performed were Collingwood who were expected to win 11 games and ended with 16 wins in 2022 season(probably because of all the close wins they had), nearly every other club won exactly the number of games or a differential of 1 I think? so finishing out of the bottom 4 again is a good chance this season, if we are to believe in this data.

 

[hardway]

He will need to get some more quality heads around him to bring this young squad up to speed.

 

[kazzooka]

Really interesting to see with the younger brigade was that we want to play with the fast risky play game but have no plans for the turnover.

Under Clarkson we rarely got thrashed as we were always structured behind the ball even as we attack. And attacks were to limit damage on turnover.

Like forward entries instead of the long kick to 30 meters straight in front you go to the pocket so that you can get a boundary throw in and setup a wall to lock it in.

I'm all for attack fast movement but we gave very little resistance once they had the ball making it impossible for the backline to defend (if they were even there, as impy, cj, Frost and bramble would be on the wings. Leaving Hardwick, blank and Sicily doing all the defending.

We actually did well in center bounces and stoppages, defended okay from stopped play. We must develop better attack (and don't handball to players who will get tackled when you can kick) and transition defence.

 

[peetoo]

Adelaide lost lots of experience going into 1997 and were 1 from the first 4 games

Yes I’m that desperate

 

[Roddy]

There's one negative about being a highly successful club, and that's massively entitled fans, fans who expect us to win the flag every year and don't seem to understand the rebuilding process.

Everyone remembers the glory times, but many don't seem to remember what went in between. Our club's entire history in the VFL/AFL, almost a century now, has been a story of monumental highs and devastating lows. We entered the league in '25, and struggled win a damn game for 30-odd years, we were the endless easybeats, 'winning' spoon after spoon. Until we finally got good. We won our first glorious flag in '61, made a GF in '63. But many don't seem to remember, we were flat stony bottom again by '65.

Then came the 70s, a glorious period. Three flags from four GF appearances for the decade. But after that, we fell sharply out of contention again, missing the finals completely from '79 - '81.

Then came the 80s and early 90s, one of the most glorious periods for any club in the history of the sport. Five flags from eight GF appearances in less than 10 years. However, we fell away sharply after that, the club almost ceasing to exist as we know it by '96.

We spent 17 years in the wilderness before rising again to win an unexpected but glorious flag in '08. In '09, we became the first club in two decades to miss the finals after winning the flag the year before, before rising again to win the magical THREEPEAT.

Now, we've bottomed out again. This is how it works for us, falling dramatically only to rise to glory again. It's worked this way for over six decades, I see no reason why it wouldn't be the same again. We just have to wait and be patient.....

 

[Judd2Sewell]

Being competitive around the stoppages is a plus, especially given the level of inexperience we had.

But that also really highlights how unorganised and poorly set-up we were around the ground.

As I said yesterday, I don't buy for a single second that we can't train both how to attack with the ball and how to set-up defensively when we don't have it. It's not just one or the other.

We better be much more organised against Sydney and there will hopefully be some semblance of a game plan.

 

[ahhhhhh]

Really interesting to see with the younger brigade was that we want to play with the fast risky play game but have no plans for the turnover.

Under Clarkson we rarely got thrashed as we were always structured behind the ball even as we attack. And attacks were to limit damage on turnover.

Like forward entries instead of the long kick to 30 meters straight in front you go to the pocket so that you can get a boundary throw in and setup a wall to lock it in.

I'm all for attack fast movement but we gave very little resistance once they had the ball making it impossible for the backline to defend (if they were even there, as impy, cj, Frost and bramble would be on the wings. Leaving Hardwick, blank and Sicily doing all the defending.

We actually did well in center bounces and stoppages, defended okay from stopped play. We must develop better attack (and don't handball to players who will get tackled when you can kick) and transition defence.

Number of losses by > 5 goals:

2020 = 7
2021 = 6

We regularly got thrashed under the last two years of Clarkson. Don't let the idea that his 'defensive structures' stopped a number of beltings in the last few years.

 

[TylerDurden]

Number of losses by > 5 goals:

2020 = 7
2021 = 6

We regularly got thrashed under the last two years of Clarkson. Don't let the idea that his 'defensive structures' stopped a number of beltings in the last few years.

Correct. Plus we forgot how to score.

 

[dcutter]

Being competitive around the stoppages is a plus, especially given the level of inexperience we had.

But that also really highlights how unorganised and poorly set-up we were around the ground.

As I said yesterday, I don't buy for a single second that we can't train both how to attack with the ball and how to set-up defensively when we don't have it. It's not just one or the other.

We better be much more organised against Sydney and there will hopefully be some semblance of a game plan.

Agree with this. Its hard not think we are going too top heavy with our attacking game. I can't recall a game in which we gave so, so much room to the opposition in their forward line. It was embarrassing.
We looked completely at sea on transition.

Was interesting to watch how the saints set up against Freo. Gave up the first half of the ground then, choked the daylights out of them defensively. Like us, their forward line was decimated yet their coaching staff accounted for it and did so very well.

I'd like to see us bring in similar strategies because as it stands we appear to be a one trick pony at the moment which is to attack at all costs. Teams will continually crucify us if we don't pull it back the other way a touch.

I'm all for an attacking game plan, its exciting when it works. but as the above poster mentioned, the good teams do both. With such a limited foward line, we need to tighten up defensively.

 

[Kanga Commando]

Number of losses by > 5 goals:

2020 = 7
2021 = 6

We regularly got thrashed under the last two years of Clarkson. Don't let the idea that his 'defensive structures' stopped a number of beltings in the last few years.

And, at least a few times, we managed to clutch defeat from the jaws of victory. Case in point last year vs the 'scum.

 

[Flukey!]

Based on the win yesterday, it feels like:
Our backline is more than capable.
Our mids are improving (we havent been winning clearances for I dont know how long)
Our forward line is a work in progress but Mitch back in 3 weeks or so should help.

Yes it was only North, but I can see the plan taking shape.

We are creating the opportunities, we just need to convert more of them.
Sounds easy doesn't it?

 

[Mercy Seat]

Based on the win yesterday, it feels like:
Our backline is more than capable.
Our mids are improving (we havent been winning clearances for I dont know how long)
Our forward line is a work in progress but Mitch back in 3 weeks or so should help.

Yes it was only North, but I can see the plan taking shape.

We are creating the opportunities, we just need to convert more of them.
Sounds easy doesn't it?

I can see our midfield being easily one of the best in the competition in 3 years time and that’s without Harley Reid.

Forward line will be the area that needs the most work.

 

[Steven Tyler]

We ain’t winning a flag with only Mitch Lewis as a KPF

 

[Flukey!]

We ain’t winning a flag with only Mitch Lewis as a KPF

I feel like that is the most glaring omission from our current list.
We need another gun forward.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Equal 1st for Centre Clearances after 3 Rounds, and 11th for Total Clearances.

Sure beats being 18th in the comp for both like last year.

 

[Flukey!]

Equal 1st for Centre Clearances after 3 Rounds, and 11th for Total Clearances.

Sure beats being 18th in the comp for both like last year.

I don't even think we could say that in our premiership years.
Its been quite a turn around.

 

[HappyHawk_1]

I feel like that is the most glaring omission from our current list.
We need another gun forward.

Wouldn’t mind pairing Lewis with Ben King…

 

[SJT76]

Equal 1st for Centre Clearances after 3 Rounds, and 11th for Total Clearances.

Sure beats being 18th in the comp for both like last year.

Almost like we have a coach that understands clearance work

 

[FB19]

Wouldn’t mind pairing Lewis with Ben King…

Would be great but would cost too much. Defence and mid in pretty decent shape so must focus on forward line. We need to find a solid partner for Lewis ideally at MSD and draft a kpf plus McCabe. They can develop over the next 3-4 years to be ready for when we hopefully are back up at the pointy end. Or if we think ramsden and McCabe are enough then maybe draft a forward like Duursma caddy Moir. That may also become a pressing need depending on how Jai Serong recovers. As much as I love Nic Watson I think with Moore brockman butler Bennetts O’Sullivan we are well stocked.