Analysis Season 2025 - Statistics and Analytics Thread

[Grasshopper17]

Audio worked for me maybe they fixed it as the audio is most helpful

I sent James a message on Twitter and he fixed the audio. Thanks for sharing Tom14.

 

[Nathan Barley]

View attachment 2390130

Freo with the best record is surprising

 

[Section 5]

Freo with the best record is surprising

Not really, they played the least number of teams being 8.
Next Hawks on 9
The rest 10 except Lions with 11

 

[Maboo]

Good section in here on our game against Collingwood:

Round 22, 2025 – This Week In Football

This Week In Football explores insights from contributors on various topics, including game analysis and coaching narratives. Key discussions include Brisbane's adaptability at the MCG, Luke Beveridge's unique coaching journey, and the implications of smaller AFLW fields on gameplay. The content...

thisweekinfootball.com

Sadly the audio on the embedded video doesn't seem to work.

Audio is working fine for me too

 

[Tom14]

Another Dem Panopoulous article on the Lions has hit the Roar website:

https://www.theroar.com.au/2025/08/22/hes-footys-most-maligned-player-but-brisbane-might-be-about-to-find-out-just-how-vital-eric-hipwood-really-is/

 

[BrainOfMorbius]

Another Dem Panopoulous article on the Lions has hit the Roar website:

View attachment 2403136

https://www.theroar.com.au/2025/08/22/hes-footys-most-maligned-player-but-brisbane-might-be-about-to-find-out-just-how-vital-eric-hipwood-really-is/

People seem to think Oscar Allen's recruitment will mean Hipwood's position is in jeopardy, as if he didn't spend the last four years playing with Joe Daniher

 

[Tom14]

We've scraped into the On the Couch window lol:

• #6 for scoring (assuming GC score 42 points on wednesday)
• #6 for scores against (assuming GC don't concede 120+ points wednesday)

 

[Dalions]

We've scraped into the On the Couch window lol:

• #6 for scoring (assuming GC score 42 points on wednesday)
• #6 for scores against (assuming GC don't concede 120+ points wednesday)

Would love to see an updated version including top 8’s only

 

[Nathan Barley]

Would love to see an updated version including top 8’s only

Saw last night we were #3 points for and #1 points against, against the current top 8

 

[dlanod]

We've scraped into the On the Couch window lol:

• #6 for scoring (assuming GC score 42 points on wednesday)
• #6 for scores against (assuming GC don't concede 120+ points wednesday)

Thank god Fremantle allowed those garbage time goals to the Dogs, otherwise we'd have had to give up any pretense at winning this year!

 

[Tom14]

Thank god Fremantle allowed those garbage time goals to the Dogs, otherwise we'd have had to give up any pretense at winning this year!

Just as critical as the swans losing by 100+ points to port was to us getting into it last year

 

[twhowler]

Fagan's Lions finishing second record has been - once straight sets, once prelim, once gf. One more would surely have been a flag!

On the flip side we have failed to win a flag from 2nd or 4th so maybe giving 3rd a go makes sense

 

[Nathan Barley]

I need a screenshot of the updated premiership window

 

[rye]

Would love to see an updated version including top 8’s only

not premiership window, but i think wheelo is pretty telling

wow! geelong are amazing. they should be montys for the flag. their closest competition havent even made finals.

but then compare against only teams that are in the finals.....

we are pretty clearly the best when it comes to beating the best - even after the gold coast games x2 get factored in we are the team to beat on this metric.

 

[Nathan Barley]

History says there are four clear AFL flag contenders. One isn’t even in the eight

History says there are four clear AFL flag contenders. One isn’t even in the eight

www.foxsports.com.au

 

[Nunez]

On the Couch graphic

View attachment 2407205

To not only play the most, but to have the highest percentage speaks volumes. Gun team.

 

[dlanod]

Fagan's Lions finishing second record has been - once straight sets, once prelim, once gf. One more would surely have been a flag!

On the flip side we have failed to win a flag from 2nd or 4th so maybe giving 3rd a go makes sense

Turns out we can only win from odd numbers...

 

[BrainOfMorbius]

Worth considering though that the presence of the Bulldogs in this list is worth 2 of our wins and 1 for everyone else except the Giants. So when (as expected) they're eliminated tomorrow, we will come back to the field a bit at 7-4 (still on top) and the Giants will rise to 6-3.

 

[Elixuh]

Worth considering though that the presence of the Bulldogs in this list is worth 2 of our wins and 1 for everyone else except the Giants. So when (as expected) they're eliminated tomorrow, we will come back to the field a bit at 7-4 (still on top) and the Giants will rise to 6-3.

We must be an outlier in top 10 teams played. 10-5.

 

[Tom14]

We must be an outlier in top 10 teams played. 10-5.

I think literally the only way our draw could have been harder given how double ups were determined would be if we had played the Giants twice rather than the Swans.

 

[Mr Ripper]

not premiership window, but i think wheelo is pretty telling

wow! geelong are amazing. they should be montys for the flag. their closest competition havent even made finals.

 

[Tom14]

Turns out having a lot of disposals and scoring a lot against bad teams gets you rating points!

 

[dlanod]

Turns out having a lot of disposals and scoring a lot against bad teams gets you rating points!

This season really has reassured me about discarding anything that doesn't factor in strength of opponent.

 

[Tom14]

This season really has reassured me about discarding anything that doesn't factor in strength of opponent.

It's been a particular tough year for models, normally I'm of the view that your ability to thump bad teams is a good indicator you are a strong team.

We are about as anti-model as it gets, we've saved our worst performances for teams that didn't make finals (pies and Suns games excepted).

 

[dlanod]

It's been a particular tough year for models, normally I'm of the view that your ability to thump bad teams is a good indicator you are a strong team.

We are about as anti-model as it gets, we've saved our worst performances for teams that didn't make finals (pies and Suns games excepted).

The big issue isn't necessarily our Jeykll/Hyde efforts, but the disparity between draws at the end of the year. When Geelong is facing the average of the 11th placed team in the six extra games and we're playing the average of 6th, most models are choking on that.

Even a simple weighting where the cumulative result of a double up equated to a single game would be more robust because then the models are using like vs like instead of built-in disproportionality.