Second year blues - but why?

[GUMBLETRON]

We've all seen it. A new player has a promising first year but struggles to back it up, before kicking on in their third year. We saw it with two entire teams as Gold Coast and then GWS followed the same pattern, appearing to go backwards in their second year before surprising quite a few in their third. Players who really kick on in their second season (Fyfe or Wines for example) are few and far between, with even those who merely back up a promising first year (such as Heppell) are rare enough to be notable.

So why does it happen? Are draftees eased through their first pre-season then hit hard the second time around? Do opponents pay more heed to or coaches ask more of players beyond their first year? Or is it psychological?

 

[Rainfall]

I am 100% sure you used Heppell as an example because he is from your club

 

[mike123]

I'm guessing opposition teams pay more attention to them

 

[Big_Birdy]

Can you name same players that this has actually happened with?

You always hear about this yet it never seems to happen IMO.

First year player has good year for his age but in the grand scheme of things isnt a topline player yet, everyone expects him to be the next year and when he only improves a little people say he has gone backwards.

 

[carnthedons]

I am 100% sure you used Heppell as an example because he is from your club

So he used a player as an example because he's actually seen a lot of him play not because of some popularly accepted media notion?

 

[Seppo]

Is the 2nd year blues a physical thing?
Young players turning 19-20 aren't fully matured and the sports science guys are trying to build their bodies. Some of the youngsters at Freo have suffered OP or growing pains in their 2nd year. It may all lie with the programmes the fitness staff have got them running in their 2nd full preseason.

 

[loki04]

Can you name same players that this has actually happened with?

You always hear about this yet it never seems to happen IMO.

First year player has good year for his age but in the grand scheme of things isnt a topline player yet, everyone expects him to be the next year and when he only improves a little people say he has gone backwards.

It happens with a good 80% of young players, backing up and improving in year 2 happens far less often.

 

[TN25]

My best guess is that they have more hype and can't handle the pressure. Opposition clubs may pay more attention to them as well.

 

[The Swert]

Can you name same players that this has actually happened with?

You always hear about this yet it never seems to happen IMO.

How about Rhys Palmer, Bradd Dalziell, Shane Savage, Patrick Veszpremi, Jordan Gysberts, Jaxson Barham, Aaron Joseph, Jarryd Morton...

 

[GUMBLETRON]

Can you name same players that this has actually happened with?

You always hear about this yet it never seems to happen IMO.

First year player has good year for his age but in the grand scheme of things isnt a topline player yet, everyone expects him to be the next year and when he only improves a little people say he has gone backwards.

As far as prominent examples go, Toby Greene is an obvious one - tore it up in his first year, then the coaches asked him to do more than run at the ball and he struggled. Or Trent Cotchin and David Swallow, whose bodies couldn't cope with the physical demands in their second seasons.

 

[Barry_Badrinath]

It happens with a good 80% of young players, backing up and improving in year 2 happens far less often.

It would be interesting to see the actual numbers for this because I believe it's massively overhyped and it's just confirmation bias that keeps this myth going.

From Richmond's current list:

Improved in 2nd year
Dustin Martin
Jack Riewoldt
Brett Deledio
Reece Conca
Brandon Ellis
Nathan Foley
Dylan Grimes
Steve Morris
Chris Newman

Stayed the same in 2nd year
Nick Vlastuin
Jake Batchelor
Shane Edwards
Tyrone Vickery

Went Backwards
Alex Rance (although technically it was his 3rd year on our list, since he didn't play a game in 2008)

Went backwards due to serious injuries
Trent Cotchin
David Astbury

Didn't play enough either year to make a judgement
Matt Arnot
Matt Dea
Todd Elton
Liam McBean
Ben Griffiths
Matt McDonough
Kamdyn McIntosh

 

[lamaros]

It would be interesting to see the actual numbers for this because I believe it's massively overhyped and it's just confirmation bias that keeps this myth going.

From Richmond's current list:

Improved in 2nd year
Dustin Martin
Jack Riewoldt
Brett Deledio
Reece Conca
Brandon Ellis
Nathan Foley
Dylan Grimes
Steve Morris
Chris Newman

Stayed the same in 2nd year
Nick Vlastuin
Jake Batchelor
Shane Edwards
Tyrone Vickery

Went Backwards
Alex Rance (although technically it was his 3rd year on our list, since he didn't play a game in 2008)

Went backwards due to serious injuries
Trent Cotchin
David Astbury

Didn't play enough either year to make a judgement
Matt Arnot
Matt Dea
Todd Elton
Liam McBean
Ben Griffiths
Matt McDonough
Kamdyn McIntosh

You are wasting your time, this is bigfooty.

 

[The Swert]

Improved in 2nd year
Dustin Martin
Jack Riewoldt
Brett Deledio
Reece Conca
Brandon Ellis
Nathan Foley
Dylan Grimes
Steve Morris
Chris Newman

2012 - 15.9 disposals, 2.2 tackles, 1.8 rebound 50s per game in 21 games
2013 - 10.0 disposals, 1.6 tackles, 0.7 rebound 50s per game in 22 games

 

[PurpleWizard]

First year players normally play outside and on the wing and get lots of easy ball. They cant play many other roles due to their light frames. 2nd year players play more within the lines of team structure and cosquently find it harder to get the ball.

 

[Barry_Badrinath]

2012 - 15.9 disposals, 2.2 tackles, 1.8 rebound 50s per game in 21 games
2013 - 10.0 disposals, 1.6 tackles, 0.7 rebound 50s per game in 22 games

He's a shut down defender. 2013 was by far the best of his career.

 

[Chris_6678]

I think Mcgovern will suffer in his 2nd year but only because he will receive a lot more attention from opposition players but this can be a good thing as the player will learn a fair bit and in their 3rd year will be even better. Andrew Gaff enjoyed a pretty cruisey first 2 years but struggled with a tag in his 3rd but learned a lot and i think will help him out in the coming years.

 

[Big_Birdy]

How about Rhys Palmer, Bradd Dalziell, Shane Savage, Patrick Veszpremi, Jordan Gysberts, Jaxson Barham, Aaron Joseph, Jarryd Morton...

All of those blokes are average Afl players at best.

They didnt have second year blues, they failed every year after debuting.

And bit harsh puting Palmer in there for his second year. Wasnt he injured

 

[Big_Birdy]

As far as prominent examples go, Toby Greene is an obvious one - tore it up in his first year, then the coaches asked him to do more than run at the ball and he struggled. Or Trent Cotchin and David Swallow, whose bodies couldn't cope with the physical demands in their second seasons.

And I could name Darling, Wines, Wingard, Brad Hill, Dylan Shiel, Adam Treloar as blokes who had good debut years and then stepped it up a notch.

Im not saying it doesnt happen, but it doesnt happen anywhere near as much as it is hyped.

 

[The Swert]

All of those blokes are average Afl players at best.

They didnt have second year blues, they failed every year after debuting.

That's the point.

They all looked very promising after their first year but weren't able to back it up in their second year and as such many of them are now delisted.

I think the second year is important to see which rookies will make the grade and which won't. Those who can improve generally go on to long AFL careers.

It's hard to name names when nobody remembers a 20-30 game player.

It's rare to find players who have poor 2nd years but then become a star (excluding injured players).

 

[Ashton Agar]

I'd guess it's psychological. The first year everything is new you take everything as it comes. The second year you have to do it all again and to the same lofty standard you set the previous season and you are no longer the first year player that everyone loves, now your just another player that is expected to work hard and play well.

I even had it in my Junior cricket career. First year I piled on the runs and won the B&F, second year I could hardly buy a run, and since then I've never had such a dry patch.

 

[Kangaroos4eva]

Aaron Black certainly had them with a half bung shoulder for large portions of the season and playing as a second forward at times despite only being the size of a third support forward.

 

[Simon_Nesbit]

Players are drafted because of what they can do.

They are dropped because of what they can't.

Perhaps this extends over seasons, with end of season reviews focusing on first year players shortcomings, and their second season is spent working on weaknesses?

 

[CourtzMajora]

Justin Westhoff is a good example.

 

[Borussia Teeth]

I'm guessing opposition teams pay more attention to them

Mostly this. I reckon it happens to teams in general and many individual players across a range of sports.
Initially these players may be eased into a smaller or less demanding role, with opponents having little scouting/intelligence on them at this level. So there's an element of surprise or even underestimation at play. If the player has a significant impact the opponents place a greater emphasis on nullifying them the next time around (later in that season or in the "2nd season") by learning from the first encounter and denying their strengths, placing a better opponent, adjusting tactics, etc.
Then the emphasis returns to the player (and coaching staff) to modify their performance in response. This could be in various ways: a) tactical (different role/position), b) physical (getting stronger, developing skills, mitigating weaknesses), c) mental (being less predictable, working harder to beat a tag or defend an opponent).

 

[Big_Birdy]

I mysel

That's the point.

They all looked very promising after their first year but weren't able to back it up in their second year and as such many of them are now delisted.

I think the second year is important to see which rookies will make the grade and which won't. Those who can improve generally go on to long AFL careers.

It's hard to name names when nobody remembers a 20-30 game player.

It's rare to find players who have poor 2nd years but then become a star (excluding injured players).

I always took it as players who are good -great who played poorly their second year. Like the example used of Toby Greene. He had a good year just passed.

If its for players who have good first years then go to water, then why is it just the second year blues? Why not second, third and last year blues?

Each to their own, but I thought it was pundits expecting young kids to have down years their second year due to this phenomenom regardless of how good they were/become.